Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

Merrill crapping the bed again on basic functionality-as of ~10 minutes ago and still now-

"Some clients may not be able to view certain account details at this time. Please try again later. Your relationship is very important to us, and we’re working to restore these services quickly"

and by "certain" they mean any.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'd be curious to hear reactions to this Tweet by JRP007. In a nutshell, he's arguing that much of the buying in recent weeks was from hedge funds hoping to engineer a squeeze when S&P500 index funds learn they must acquire TSLA. When Tesla announced the details of their $5 billion cap raise, it became apparent that Tesla was going to do what's necessary to keep a massive squeeze from taking place. Since Tesla's cap raise announcement, we've been seeing a decline in the stock price, which is some of these hedge funds unwinding their positions (still at a profit for most) because the big squeeze plan is going to be foiled by Tesla.

I'm not really buying into that theory, mainly because of the terms of the stock offering. If Tesla really wanted to signal that they would help out with liquidity in number of shares and prevent a massivesqueeze, they wouldn't have put a cap of 5 billion on the offering AND be able to set the price of any shares they decide to offer. They also have the right to withdraw from the offering entirely.

Now if they had put a number cap range of say 5 to 20 billion while setting their own price for the shares, that's another story. It seems to me like Tesla is positioning themselves to capitalize on the incoming squeeze by giving themselves the freedom to let the stock fly and then sell their offering shares at higher prices(above 500).

As for the stock action, it honestly feels as though their some inside information out there that is pointing to the inclusion announcement happening Friday or later and they knew it, which gives them free reign to go to town on the stock.

But in reality, the stock was up nearly 13% post split, they were always going to at some point try a panic sell-off to shake out the emotional investors.

 

[wipster]

Well at least it appears this drop is not solely because of 1/4 times...

 

[MP3Mike]

I'd be curious to hear reactions to this Tweet by JRP007. In a nutshell, he's arguing that much of the buying in recent weeks was from hedge funds hoping to engineer a squeeze when S&P500 index funds learn they must acquire TSLA. When Tesla announced the details of their $5 billion cap raise, it became apparent that Tesla was going to do what's necessary to keep a massive squeeze from taking place. Since Tesla's cap raise announcement, we've been seeing a decline in the stock price, which is some of these hedge funds unwinding their positions (still at a profit for most) because the big squeeze plan is going to be foiled by Tesla.

I'm not buying that either. While Tesla could issue $50B more of stock, I can't imagine they would. That would be way too much dilution, not to mention what would they possibly do with that much cash? Elon has already said that they aren't cash constrained.

 

[Singuy]

So if it doesn't hit it today the thinking would be a continued push down into the 3s tomorrow, no?

For those who are in the manipulation camp, could be MM capping losses today for tomorrow since Tesla is performing much better than macro after the morning bell.

Everyone here only talks about capping gains but no one ever talk about capping losses. Manipulation needs to go both ways or else it's just made up bias.

 

[Mike Smith]

CNBC is loving this. They've changed their front page 'Tesla is falling' story two times now to update the 3-day drop from 16 to 17 to 18%.

 

[traxila]

For those who are in the manipulation camp, could be MM capping losses today for tomorrow since Tesla is performing much better than macro after the morning bell.

Everyone here only talks about capping gains but no one ever talk about capping losses. Manipulation needs to go both ways or else it's just made up bias.

I believe that manipulation is part of every stock in the markets. In both directions. All the time. At certain times and in certain stocks it is much more obvious. But it is always there.

What do you think the sharks that run this place on a day to day show up for your benefit?

 

[replicant]

That would be way too much dilution, not to mention what would they possibly do with that much cash?

They could do buybacks after the squeeze. That way, we (HODLers) don't get diluted, and only those who sell for short term gains end up paying the bill.

It's a win-win situation for the company and its actual supporters - long-term investors.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Oops. I sold my '70 Firebird, and used the money to buy some TSLA. I tried for 420.69, but the price was under that at the time, and thus got 38 at 418. Booo~~

 

[elasalle]

They could do buybacks after the squeeze. That way, we (HODLers) don't get diluted, and only those who sell for short term gains end up paying the bill.

It's a win-win situation for the company and its actual supporters - long-term investors.

Growth Company doing buybacks?

 

[SarahsDad]

Picked up 55 more shares at $407 - first time I’ve bought since the (old) 1400’s. Gotta appreciate when TSLA goes on sale.

 

[jhm]

I'm starting to contemplate at what price I will resume accumulating shares. BFPT was very helpful to me in the past. But we have undergone fundamental change in how the market perceives Tesla, so the BFPT will not be well calibrated for about a year.

Within my IRA, my strategy has been to sell off excess shares as the value of my position rises above a certain upper value limit (UVL). The last price I sold at way $500. The proceeds I have reinvested in other stocks that I believe have a material chance of beating Tesla over the next year. My intent has been to hold this UVL until the non-Tesla portion of my portfolio becomes substantial. But we could be faced with a 20% to 30% pullback. This also means that the value of my Tesla position falls 20% to 30% below my UVL. So the question I'm asking myself is whether I want to set some lower value limit (LVL) below which I accumulate more Tesla shares. This means I would be trading to keep the value of my Tesla position between my LVL and UVL. So I'm thinking about setting LVL to 0.8*UVL, but 0.7*UVL might also be reasonable. The choice here would seem to depend on volatility and how much trading I want to do. Since this is in an IRA I don't have to worry about capital gains or other trading costs.

Any suggestions?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I believe that manipulation is part of every stock in the markets. In both directions. All the time. At certain times and in certain stocks it is much more obvious. But it is always there.

What do you think the sharks that run this place on a day to day show up for your benefit?

Yeah, I think there is and complain about Wall Street manipulation. I've been in a wide range of stocks and anyone thats invested in micro cap stocks knows good and well the tricks Wall Street does.....but those tricks apply to the upside as well as the downside. It's all rigged to a certain point. Only at certain times does Wall Street get caught with its pants down and it was quite enjoyable to watch it in real time after the stock split announcement

 

[berryja]

Oops. I sold my '70 Firebird, and used the money to buy some TSLA. I tried for 420.69, but the price was under that at the time, and thus got 38 at 418. Booo~~

Tough to part with but sold for a good reason, you can buy two Firebirds next year!

 

[Spacep0d]

What is HODL?
What is a retail investor?

I had one limit order for 411 and I was surprised early this morning to see it filled!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

What is HODL?
What is a retail investor?

I had one limit order for 411 and I was surprised early this morning to see it filled!

What is HODL? - HOLD ON FOR DEAR LIFE

What is a retail investor? - Look in the mirror

 

[Robocop]

What is HODL?
What is a retail investor?

I had one limit order for 411 and I was surprised early this morning to see it filled!

HODL is something I'm incapable of doing, apparently.

And you are a retail investor.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

What is HODL?
What is a retail investor?

HODL => Hold On for Dear Life

A retail investor is someone who is in the market but doesn't do it as a profession. ie Your typical person who buys and sells stocks using a broker like Schwab or E-Trade.

 

[Krugerrand]

True, but Tesla should require a password verification before letting you spend 2k on your phone. Huge miss on Tesla's part.

Yes, Tesla needs to protect people from themselves because setting your phone to the home screen, turning off the home screen, or having a lock code so one can’t accidentally call people or make purchases when one deliberately sits on their phone is Tesla’s responsibility.

x a bajillion.

Personal responsibility has no place in this world. Ever.

I’m going to pick a more substantial hill to die on.

 

[mikevbf]

But in reality, the stock was up nearly 13% post split, they were always going to at some point try a panic sell-off to shake out the emotional investors.

This