Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

In a tweet not long ago, Sam Korus pointed our that Tesla’s market share is growing faster than they predicted in that analysis.

Yeah, and I don't think ARK Invest's "24K Golden Goose" scenario included Forrest Musk owning the only shrimping factory left afloat after Hurricane Covid...

What's GM's and VW's losses again? Any profitable automakers? Just the Bubba Musk Shrimp Factory, you say?

Cheers!

 

[Mike Smith]

I really like this Gary Black fellow.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1288819414587105280

'With the rest of the auto industry decimated by recession and cutbacks, $TSLA capacity will soar from 690K today to 1,790K over next 18 mos, creating $8.8B = $44/share of new earnings power. 2023 EPS $50/share seems a layup. Worth $3,000? $4,000? TSLA is way too cheap at $1,500.'

 

[RobStark]

I will be shocked if the actual EPA range of the Polestar 2 is over 250 miles. With no charging network, in the US it will sell worse than the E-tron.

CCS has 2,376 stations with 5,106 individual plugs in the USA.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla surprisingly lists Model Y Long Range RWD for $48,000 - Electrek

I think the RWD LR Model Y should be at least $3500 cheaper.

 

[RobStark]

What are the possible implications for Rivian? Is there a substantial monetary gain to Tesla?

From what I understand the IP allegedly being stolen is how Tesla recruits employees.

How they identify and recruit top people. Human Resources "IP"

The people caught downloading files before leaving for Rivian are Human Resources employees and people working on the Supercharger Network identifying locations,permitting, and installing the Networks. Tesla says one HR person switching employment from Tesla to Rivian admitted the theft when confronted by Tesla lawyers.

I think that is difficult IP to put a dollor number on.

As opposed to making Rivian pay a royalty fee for every car made that infringed on battery cooling, autonomous driving, etc IP.

So far as I know it is not software,electrical, or mechanical engineers.

 

[Mo City]

I really like this Gary Black fellow.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1288819414587105280

'With the rest of the auto industry decimated by recession and cutbacks, $TSLA capacity will soar from 690K today to 1,790K over next 18 mos, creating $8.8B = $44/share of new earnings power. 2023 EPS $50/share seems a layup. Worth $3,000? $4,000? TSLA is way too cheap at $1,500.'

Gary is great. He pumps out relevant stuff about TSLA quite prolifically and is a "must follow" IMO.

I just wish he'd spend less time destroying TSLAQ and NKLA.

 

[samppa]

No, they really shouldn't. The max safe L3 charge rate is 1C for an EV without extensive battery cooling equipment. A 1st Zoe had a 22 KWh bty pack, now 52 KWh (both are air cooled). You really want to sit in your Tesla waiting for Zoe that's supercharging at 22 KW? Peak rate, with rapid taper due to overheating?

That's a L2 charge rate in Europe. Let Renault go bust if they can't sort out something as simple as charging.

Zoe had 43kw ac charging at some point. Not mant ac chargers capable of that, but a few.

No, they really shouldn't. The max safe L3 charge rate is 1C for an EV without extensive battery cooling equipment. A 1st Zoe had a 22 KWh bty pack, now 52 KWh (both are air cooled). You really want to sit in your Tesla waiting for Zoe that's supercharging at 22 KW? Peak rate, with rapid taper due to overheating?

That's a L2 charge rate in Europe. Let Renault go bust if they can't sort out something as simple as charging.

Zoe had a 43kw ac charger at some point. Not many ac chargers capable of that.
Also air cooling of zoe battery is tied into car AC system, it's kind of active air cooling. I guess it's a bit better than leaf's.

 

[Tslynk67]

Did anyone watch the fullycharged review of the Polestar 2? It appears to be relatively on par with the M3 from the reviewers perspective (whom I respect).

My main takeaways from the review are:

• Android car OS doesn't suck
• The supercharger network is a bigger moat for Tesla than I had initially thought
• Even a 10 year EV cheerleader can treat Tesla like (i assume) Americans see the Yankees, begrudgingly acknowledging their skill but getting joy out of seeing real competition - Honestly I can't believe Rob is this giddy reviewing a vehicle that is just on par with the current leader.

Rob appears to have a thing against Tesla, he made some pretty disparaging comments about Musk a few weeks back. No idea why.

Thanks for the post though, I agree, this looks like a nice car indeed. I hope they sell millions of 'em.

 

[EinSV]

Tesla surprisingly lists Model Y Long Range RWD for $48,000 - Electrek

I think the RWD LR Model Y should be at least $3500 cheaper.

Tesla apparently removed the reference to RWD -- still only AWD and Performance Model Y.

 

[smorgasbord]

Yeah, and I don't think ARK Invest's "24K Golden Goose" scenario included Forrest Musk owning the only shrimping factory left afloat after Hurricane Covid...

What's GM's and VW's losses again? Any profitable automakers? Just the Bubba Musk Shrimp Factory, you say?

Cheers!

I believe Ferrari also has profitable shrimp.

 

[Krugerrand]

Some technicals converging around ~1540 by Tuesday:

View attachment 570871
S&P announcement sure to affect this convergence if the Committee announces TSLA inclusion by then.

Cheers!

Ok, so what happens if the technicals converge. Do they make a baby something? Fireworks? Stampede to the exits?

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla surprisingly lists Model Y Long Range RWD for $48,000 - Electrek

I think the RWD LR Model Y should be at least $3500 cheaper.

Anti-sell?

 

[Tslynk67]

Besides, he lost me when speaking about the beauty of the car. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, of course. But my eye says Model 3 is in a much higher class beauty pageant than that thing, inside and out.

The Polestar has a very European design, of course it takes a lot of it's styling cues from the current Volvo range - and Volvos have always been on the square side of boxy.

Actually come to think of it, maybe that's why he likes it more - here's Rob in his day-job outfit:

 

[Artful Dodger]

Or let them license from Tesla?

What, the liquid-cooled bty pack? Renault uses an air-cooled pack because they're cheap, and don't care about fast charging. Their city cars are design to recharge slowly overnight. Supercharging them is like putting a jet engine on a Piper Cub. Zoe's won't be part of the EV future, they are low-use case, stop-gap compliance cars.

 

[Tslynk67]

No, they really shouldn't. The max safe L3 charge rate is 1C for an EV without extensive battery cooling equipment. A 1st Zoe had a 22 KWh bty pack, now 52 KWh (both are air cooled). You really want to sit in your Tesla waiting for Zoe that's supercharging at 22 KW? Peak rate, with rapid taper due to overheating?

That's a L2 charge rate in Europe. Let Renault go bust if they can't sort out something as simple as charging.

To be fair, Tesla had the same issues back in the day here in Belgium, which has it's neutral wired the same as Norway. To make things worse, in many cases in Belgium there's no neutral at all, meaning the car wouldn't charge at all, even with the BE specific adapter for the old charging cable thingy they used.

This is now resolved with the latest cable they provide, which negotiates all this and presents the car with what it wants, so now one cable, with appropriate travel adapters (which cost €5 in the supermarket) works across whole of Europe.

But this was a real problem at one point - same plug in BE, FR, GE, but no charing unless you had the right adapter...

 

[ThortsMD]

The Polestar has a very European design, of course it takes a lot of it's styling cues from the current Volvo range - and Volvos have always been on the square side of boxy.

Actually come to think of it, maybe that's why he likes it more - here's Rob in his day-job outfit:

View attachment 570879

Ah, yes...the novelty condom. Have enjoyed his work over the years, on Red Dwarf and teaching renewables.

 

[Todesbuckler]

Global Top 20 June 2020 sales are online:

"With a helping hand of the Chinese EV market, the Tesla Model 3 reigned supreme in June, more than tripling the sales of the runner-up Renault Zoe, with the French hatchback scoring its first five-digit performance, while the Tesla Model Y won its first monthly podium position, thanks to 7.500 deliveries, allowing Tesla's new baby to join the Top 20, in #14, in the coming months expect the Model Y to jump further positions, possibly reaching the podium by September."

 

[Tslynk67]

Who woulda thunk it?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Zoe had 43kw ac charging at some point. Not mant ac chargers capable of that, but a few.


Zoe had a 43kw ac charger at some point. Not many ac chargers capable of that.
Also air cooling of zoe battery is tied into car AC system, it's kind of active air cooling. I guess it's a bit better than leaf's.

Mine had 43kw AC. Didn't seem to slow down charge but rarely charged away from house. Overall I think the Zoe is a great car. Just not as good as it could be with some minor tweaks. The mass lease deal Zoe's in uk (evezy renamed?) All have 50kw DC option which I think is required and should be standard. 12 volt maintenance is bad. AC charging can be dodgy. Mine was old, newer ones might be much better.

For UK, model 3, Kia/Hyundai, mg and Zoe are worth looking at. More to follow, hopefully id3 soon.

Then I'm hoping Tesla set the bar yet higher, volumes favour ev and harm low volume ice. Then eventually hard to get petrol diesel at decent price on roadtrips and legacy ice gouging parts prices to survive. Add pollution restrictions to towns and ice is dying.

 

[MC3OZ]

Here is the filing for the Tesla v Rivian Lawsuit :-

https://www.scribd.com/document/470141365/Tesla-sues-Rivian#from_embed

The quote below from the Rivian lawyer (if true) is the closest thing to smoking gun.

So it make me wonder if the phone call was recorded.

Mr Zahr ... claimed that taking confidential information was common in the industry.

(I needed to retype the quote above)

Like all lawsuits, we need to see the other side of the argument lawyers are good at their job..