The Accountant
Active Member
Question re: Q2 profitability (back of envelop)
Does anyone have any analysis / estimates pertaining to Tesla’s ZEV credits?
In q1, tesla generated record $350m in revenue from ZEV. with approx 89k deliveries, they eeked out about $16m in profits
this quarter, it seems like the big diff will be: 1) SG&A/R&D pay cuts 2) deferred rev from stop signs/stoplight release 3) 2k extra deliveries 4) model y growth/extra margin
back of envelop math: #1 is worth about $100m. #2 could be worth extra 50-100m. #3 $20m in gross profit (50k ASP, 20% margin). #4 maybe 1-2 digit millions in extra gross profit
so it feels like the swing factor will remain will be how big of a difference in ZEV credits for q2 vs q1...
thoughts?
Since the FCA-Tesla EU Pooling Agreement is not public, estimating the Regulatory Credits for Q2 is very difficult.
I am using $280m in my model as follows:
I am assuming that FCA pays Tesla based on a rate per Tesla cars registered in the EU each Qtr. This may be incorrect; we will have more clues when the 10Q is published later this week.
I am also assuming $60m in recognized Deferred FSD Revenue from the release of Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control. In Q3 of 2019, they released $30m for Smart Summon. I am assuming that Traffic Light and Stop Control is worth twice that.
I will publish my Q2 Estimate in the Financial Projection thread shortly.