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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Well, if you're going to tag me I'm going to have to respond.
Seeking Help from the TSLA Options and Tax planning Veterans
Dear all, I find myself in a fortunate dilemma and could appreciate some advise from ya'll [Summoning my self-declared mentors @ggr @DaveT @FrankSG @Papafox for their blessed guidance, I have learnt a huge deal from you over the years!]

Problem statement
:
=> Investment style/Premise: I have core TSLA position accrued over the years, and prefer to HOLDDDD for a long long time on retirement/post-tax/IRAs. I do not need the money and want it to grow as long as sensible. I am OK with a highly concentrated portfolio % on TSLA, I understand the risks.
=> Picked few Sept 2020 $800 strikes in my post-tax brokerage, had bought these as way-OTM calls at paltry premiums which have now gone into orbit with our astronauts! :eek: [How I wish I did these in Roth IRA/401k but that's another story for later]
=> Given this unique About-to-be-hit-by-the-TAX-train situation what would you gentlemen/ladies advise?

Please assume this year will be record taxable gains like never ever before due to other winning trades [blame AMZN OTM calls], any probably never in the future [since I hope to plan better hereafter]

Options:
First disclaimer: I am not an accountant nor a tax lawyer, you can't rely on me being right. But I have had to deal with the situation before, and being complicated by being taxed in both the US and Australia, I had to understand some of it.
  1. Sell ALL/100% of these Sep 2020 $800 contracts for lofty profits
    • Short term federal and state [CA] Cap-gain tax on entire profits, curl up and cry writing the tax check
Well, sometimes you have to lie in the bed you made. If you do go this route, though, remember one REALLY IMPORTANT thing. There will be time between when you sell and get the cash, and when the bill to the IRS/FTB comes due, and you want to make really sure that when you have to write those cheques, the actual cash is where it needs to be. A friend of mine, back in the Qualcomm years, made money out of selling options (employee options, not calls), bought a house with the proceeds, and exercised some more options to buy and hold the stock. After the bubble burst and his Qualcomm stock had dropped back down, he had to finance the house on short notice to meet the tax bill. I even fell for this myself last year; I had a windfall from a private investment in Australia, owed tax in the US, and the wire transfer failed for no explicable reason. It cost me a few thousand to get a short term loan to pay the taxes, even though I had the money. Don't invest the cash in something that might tank (like TSLA). There is a use for T-bills.
  1. Sell few of these Sep 2020 $800 contracts, use that money towards exercising the remaining contracts for N x100 TSLA shares and sail into the sunset for years.
    • Short term Cap-gain-tax on sold options. What about the ones I exercise to buy [I have never really exercised options, and does it matter when I exercise them - now vs closer to expiry, its all the same I suppose since premium is lost]
It's pretty rare to want to exercise early, for the reason you note, which is that you lose the time value. $587.35 (current bid) + $800 strike = $1387.35, minus $1371.58 (closing price that that bid corresponds to) means that the current time value (Theta) is $15.77, which is around 2.7% of the option value. It will be even less tomorrow. At this point $800 strike counts as pretty "deep in the money". Do you care about that 2.7%? Maybe not.

You will owe tax (as above) on the contracts you sell. You don't owe tax (yet) on the ones you exercise. Instead, you put stock in your brokerage account with a cost basis of $800 plus whatever you paid for the option, and a purchase date of the date you exercise, whether it's early or in September. This is one case where you might exercise early: to start the long term capital gains clock. But only you know what your individual situation might be in a year.
  1. Exercise ALL of these Sep 2020 $800 contracts [I can arrange for the capital] but this would mean my TSLA position becomes TOO concentrated [I am comfortable with that] but I do also have $350 Jun 2022 and Sep 2021 $1000 strikes which also fall in the problem statement.
No current tax liability if you do this. Exercising the option is not, itself, a taxable event.
  1. Roll over to OTM? Would still be taxed, perhaps a preferable approach? Please shed some light on this.
Many many thanks for your insights/pointers!
Rolling the option is really two separate transactions. You will incur tax on the sale leg, as if you had just sold them, see (1) above. (I lost the paragraph numbering, sorry...)

"Don't let the tax tail wag the income dog." -- one of the best pieces of advice I was given when a pup, by the chairman of my first startup (which failed miserably).
 
007
@TrendTrader007

·
49s

$tsla some serious short covering going on today some deep=pocketed shorts got burned big-time
@elonmusk
Yes, over 1.0 M shares traded Afterhrs at an VWAP of $1395 (> $24 above the Close). That alone is an extra $24M of 'punishment' for dem shortzes... :p

Worse for dem wot DID NOT cover After-hrs today, the SP ended the session above $1,432 (> $60 above the Close) :D

Cheers
 
Or a Roth conversion ladder

View attachment 561365

Would be nice to have in a Roth but I cannot come to terms with the huge one time tax bill.

For those 55 and over, there is a 401k "Rule of 55". You can withdrawal from your 401K even partially without the 10% penalty starting the year you turn 55. You do not need to wait until 59 1/2. Obviously you still pay taxes but you do not pay the 10% penalty.

-You need to leave your job. (Does not matter how, layoff, quit, etc)
-You cannot roll the funds into an IRA. The funds need to stay in the 401K.

Not planning on doing this but good to know it is there should I decide to "Call in Rich". I am 55.
 
Lol, what's your exit strategy for BA? You know Elon's coming to disrupt the industry, right? ;)

Tesla electric aircraft: Elon Musk responds to ‘Model V’ concept VTOL

We need batteries with 500Wh/kg energy density to enable transcontinental commercial aircraft. We'll find out more on Battery Day in September. Personally I think that's 7-8 years off.

Intercontinental Flight will be disrupted by SpaceX/Starship Earth-to-Earth. I give that a non-zero chance of happening beginning in about 10 years (w. chances increasing year-by-year thereafter).


Congrats on your gains. Use them well!

Cheers!

‘Only 500 Wh / kg. We’re you perhaps unaware that Nikola has already achieved that and further that Trevor intends to give it away to everyone to advance sustainable transport?

problem Solved :)
 
Would be nice to have in a Roth but I cannot come to terms with the huge one time tax bill.

For those 55 and over, there is a 401k "Rule of 55". You can withdrawal from your 401K even partially without the 10% penalty starting the year you turn 55. You do not need to wait until 59 1/2. Obviously you still pay taxes but you do not pay the 10% penalty.

-You need to leave your job. (Does not matter how, layoff, quit, etc)
-You cannot roll the funds into an IRA. The funds need to stay in the 401K.

Not planning on doing this but good to know it is there should I decide to "Call in Rich". I am 55.

You don't have to do the whole chunk in one shot and you can spread for as many years as you like. The Roth ladder is used for people that early retire. They roll only their annual expenses every year and since they are not working their tax bill is minimal.
 
Would be nice to have in a Roth but I cannot come to terms with the huge one time tax bill.

For those 55 and over, there is a 401k "Rule of 55". You can withdrawal from your 401K even partially without the 10% penalty starting the year you turn 55. You do not need to wait until 59 1/2. Obviously you still pay taxes but you do not pay the 10% penalty.

-You need to leave your job. (Does not matter how, layoff, quit, etc)
-You cannot roll the funds into an IRA. The funds need to stay in the 401K.

Not planning on doing this but good to know it is there should I decide to "Call in Rich". I am 55.

Interesting. Once you leave job, how long do you need to stay retired? What if you want to take a 1 year break?
 
I understand sales of these t-shirts have dropped precipitously:

ssrco,active_tshirt,womens,101010:01c5ca27c6,front,square_product,x600.jpg


But sales are picking back up again. Apparently $TSLAQ discovered them. $1000 is their new dream price! o_O

Still 3x the valuation of some analysts. Let’s send them a batch.
 
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Jeez, these charts are scary. Something *not natural* is going on.
Reminds me of the first time we went to 900, but on steroids.

Anyone know what the float is when BKRH got into the S&P?
I wonder if this is a crescendo to a S&P squeeze of unprecedented proportions.

You guys think manipulators are pumping up the market cap prior to S&P inclusion so then the market cap becomes say 2% of the entire S&P when inclusion is announced therefore over 150 million shares need to be bought? And how there are not enough float so it will create a massive S&P squeeze so these manipulators can bank?

Seems like it's a once in a life time opportunity because

1. Tsla valuation is goin to be the largest when induction happens.
2. Float for Tsla shares are incredibility low
3. CEO hinted at profitability with short shorts and leaked emails.

You just don't get this kind of opportunity ever. Have the S&P funds do the work for you as the stock pops.
 
So if some of this is short squeezing, any idea on when that might peak? Is the answer "the day after Q2 profit is announced"?
Of course NOT! The S&P Index funds don't start the real buying until after the S&P Committee meeting, and a public announcement that TSLA will be included in the NDX.

Then ( h/t @Curt Renz ) there's 5-7 days pre-notice when the REAL buying is done. Could be ~40 M shares need to be shifted...

Even after that, there's BTY DAY on Sep 15th! And Q3 P&D 2 wks after that! And Q3 results 3 wks after that!

Sorry have to stop now. Have broken the 'exclam' key on my kybd. :p

Cheers!
 
After-action Report: Mon, Jul 06, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Hits ATHs in All 4 SP Categories"

Traded: $27,188,304,077.49 ($27.188 B)
Volume: 20,616,338
VWAP: $1,318.77


Closing SP / VWAP: 104.32%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $254.394B / $175.401B = 145.04%​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 60.2% (54th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 44.6% (45th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.08% of Short Volume (50th Percentile rank)​

View attachment 561369

Comment: "TSLA runs up to $1,430 After-hrs"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!
Are you coming out with a "Greatest Hits" in the next year or two Lodger?
 
Of course NOT! The S&P Index funds don't start the real buying until after the S&P Committee meeting, and a public announcement that TSLA will be included in the NDX.

Then ( h/t @Curt Renz ) there's 5-7 days pre-notice when the REAL buying is done. Could be ~40 M shares need to be shifted...

Even after that, there's BTY DAY on Sep 15th! And Q3 P&D 2 wks after that! And Q3 results 3 wks after that!

Sorry have to stop now. Have broken the 'exclam' key on my kybd. :p

Cheers!

I think 40M shares is an under-calculation by at least 50%:

• $10 Trillion is invested in S&P 500 index funds
• Tesla will come in at 1% or more of the S&P
• Therefore, $100 Billion of TSLA needs to be purchased in the 10 days when the S&P committee formally announces the inclusion until the actual inclusion.
• Tesla market cap is $254 Billion today, so $100 Billion is almost 40% of the float needs to be purchased.
• But, Elon and institutions and longs like us hold a huge percentage of shares.
• So, how can the price not sky-rocket?
 
Found this article on the VW squeeze


The big difference there- the vast majority of stock was owned by one company that wasn't selling...and most of the rest by a government that wasn't selling.

There was literally not enough stock in private hands to cover the shorts.

That's not remotely the case right now with Tesla.

Though the shorts might need to overpay for it a bit :)



Help me with my math here, please.

• I've read a few sources that say that there is about $10 Trillion tied up in S&P 500 index funds.
• TSLA looks to be coming in at 1% of the S&P 500; higher if this run continues.
• 1% of $10Trillion is $100 Billion that needs to go to TSLA.
• TSLA's market cap is $254 Billion, so that's a LOT of buying that needs to happen.
EDIT: That's 40% of TSLA to be bought - with so much in Elon's and institutional hands, how does that happen?

Aren't the effects of this going to be ginormous? Wouldn't Standard and Poor's try to do something to avoid those effects?


IIRC they don't use the full market cap- just the real "float" amount- essentially they use the market cap MINUS the value of shares held by insiders like Elon (which is a pretty big chunk)

It'll still be a lot, but not as much as the full market cap suggests.
 
Interesting. Once you leave job, how long do you need to stay retired? What if you want to take a 1 year break?

Not sure what happens if you start working again. I think I read somewhere that if you contribute to a future employer 401K you would need to stop the withdrawals to or you would need to pay penalty. It is only valid for the last 401K you contributed. This is why they recommend rolling any earlier 401K/IRA into your 401K while you are still employed.

Lot's of articles out there.

What Is the Rule of 55?
 
You don't have to do the whole chunk in one shot and you can spread for as many years as you like. The Roth ladder is used for people that early retire. They roll only their annual expenses every year and since they are not working their tax bill is minimal.

Interesting this would smooth out the tax bill so you stay below high marginal rates. I need to research this as almost all our savings in some from of pre-tax deferred account. Would love to have more in a ROTH type account.
 
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