Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Has Jonas set a new bull target to go with their actual target of $650? Just wanna know what the 2021 floor will be.....

Don't look to stock analysts for guidance on that. I've known for decades that most analysts are self-serving bastards with very little insight or predictive value.

I can't understand why anyone would take anything they say seriously. You will generally make more money doing the exact opposite of what they indicate.

 

[Unpilot]

Helping Tesla Q2: Getting my MCU1 upgraded to MCU2 next Monday ($2500), as well as the long awaited HW3 FSD computer installed. Stoked.

Please keep us posted on results.
I am looking to do the same and wonder how it performs.
Would love a faster MCU2!

 

[Fred42]

Honestly, if I was Elon, given all the bullshit he has had to put up with in the USA, I'd be looking exclusively to concentrate on expansion in China. China loves Tesla, the US seems to have a lot of hatred for the company. Do they really need to put up with that crap?

China is not a democracy. They support Tesla because it helps them and probably will for several years. Sometime down the road priorities could be different. Tesla might not last long in China if they become out of favor.

 

[MC3OZ]

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1275360002132172800

While this is a twitter source they are referencing a Fremont local government document..

additional floor space of 21,485 sq ft on the second floor of the Kato Road building

.....

The facility is expected to operate 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, with manufacturing activities taking place continuously on a normal 4-shift basis with 100 employees per shift

 

[Remster32]

Has Jonas set a new bull target to go with their actual target of $650? Just wanna know what the 2021 floor will be.....

If you want an actual answer his bull case target price for June 2021 is $1,200.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Jun 23, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "Lowest TSLA volume since Jun 22, 2020 (1 day)"

Traded: $6,403,892,868.24 ($6.40 B)
Volume: 6,436,699
VWAP: $994.90

Closing SP / VWAP: 100.71%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = 185.805B / 177.837B = 104.48%​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 56.5% (52nd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 53.8% (54th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.03% of Short Volume (50th Percentile rank)​

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[RobStark]

Honestly, if I was Elon, given all the bullshit he has had to put up with in the USA, I'd be looking exclusively to concentrate on expansion in China. China loves Tesla, the US seems to have a lot of hatred for the company. Do they really need to put up with that crap?

There is a lot of hatred in China for Elon/Tesla too coming from the ultra nationalist.

Difference is that hate is not allowed to vent in public forums because it contradicts the government narrative.

Aren't repressive dictatorships great? Just ask the people of Hong Kong or Xinjiang.

 

[Knightshade]

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1275360002132172800

While this is a twitter source they are referencing a Fremont local government document..

Estimate I saw a day or two ago was the Kato road facility could produce enough batteries for....about 13,000 cars a year for going into 3 or Y, only about 8500 for S or X.

Which is, MAYBE enough for say Plaid S buyers, assuming take rate is like 20-25ish percent on Plaid and total sales don't jump a lot?


So that could certainly be how they announce "Hey, Plaid S on sale TODAY" at battery day... but it's not exactly evidence the whole line of all models is getting magic batteries today. Or tomorrow. Or anytime until they roll this process out to a "real" production plant.


Oh- source on the 8500/13k thing? Same guy from that tweet- it's mentioned here:

Tesla Might Scale-Up Battery Cell Production Line Close To Fremont Factory

 

[MC3OZ]

Estimate I saw a day or two ago was the Kato road facility could produce enough batteries for....about 13,000 cars a year for going into 3 or Y, only about 8500 for S or X.

Which is, MAYBE enough for say Plaid S buyers, assuming take rate is like 20-25ish percent on Plaid and total sales don't jump a lot?


So that could certainly be how they announce "Hey, Plaid S on sale TODAY" at battery day... but it's not exactly evidence the whole line of all models is getting magic batteries today. Or tomorrow. Or anytime until they roll this process out to a "real" production plant.


Oh- source on the 8500/13k thing? Same guy from that tweet- it's mentioned here:

Tesla Might Scale-Up Battery Cell Production Line Close To Fremont Factory

This quote is also important:-

These calculations are not the limit for Tesla, since the new Tesla processes, patented recently, can be much more energy-efficient than existing ones. Therefore, production speeds can be much higher than expected.

So cells for 8,500 Plaid Model S/X per year is my minimum expectation....

They may be able to spin up an additional site at/near Fremont to make additional cells, but it probably makes sense to get production working smoothly at one site before attempting duplication.

EDIT:: The date on the council planning document was March 2020, they estimated 3 months for construction... the actual cell production line operating and being able to make some cells for Plaid Model S/X in September seems possible,

 

[MP3Mike]

The deal is done. Don't let the words of a few jokers get you down.

Oh, it doesn't get me down, but it does sort of make me feel ashamed to be a Union member, enough so that it is making me think about leaving the union. (Which would save me ~$1,000/year in union dues.)

I'll say that my local council has done a lot of good for us, but it is obvious that the unions in Travis County really stood up to the plate and recruited people to testify against Tesla with a lot of crap.

 

[Knightshade]

This quote is also important:-



So cells for 8,500 Plaid Model S/X per year is my minimum expectation....

They may be able to spin up an additional site at/near Fremont to make additional cells, but it probably makes sense to get production working smoothly at one site before attempting duplication.

EDIT:: The date on the council planning document was March 2020, they estimated 3 months for construction... the actual cell production line operating and being able to make some cells for Plaid Model S/X in September seems possible,

Well, I also think 8500 Plaid S a year is low for demand, at least initially... and it'd definitely be low for S and X, so a bit higher # from better efficiency of the cells just makes it more likely they can meet the S demand


IIRC Elon explicitly said Plaid S comes before Plaid X... so I'd expect roughly this:

The new batteries are coming on Plaid S from Kato, which they'll probably have available to show on battery day (and by pushing it back to Sept 15 they now gain a couple months to produce enough to actually build enough cells to start filling new orders as of announcement....

And then they take all they learned getting Kato up and running, and apply it to a much larger scale battery line at Giga Nevada to support Semi and CT (and presumably Plaid X).


This leaves the 3/Y and 'regular' S/X running basically "the same" old batteries for a while yet... though maybe they get another small chemistry bump... which is fine since they extended the Panasonic contract another couple years anyway (parts of it go longer, but specific pricing and production is 2 years from April 2020), and those cars still handily beat anything else on the market for range/performance anyway.... plus they now have a bunch of "spare" 18650 cells for the ~20-25% of now-Plaid sales that can go into powerwalls to help the previously cell starved power business.

By the time that 2 year Panasonic extension is winding down they're maybe ready to switch the 3/Y over to the "new" cells and will have scaled production up enough to do so.... which is probably about the time legacy folks will be "catching up" to the 2017-era Tesla battery situation (early 3) and so Teslas mass production cars get to take another jump ahead.

And somewhere in there I guess is Roadster- but Elons mentioned that'd pretty low on the priorities, and they're not gonna build a massive # of em anyway.

 

[Joe F]

Please keep us posted on results.
I am looking to do the same and wonder how it performs.
Would love a faster MCU2!

Will do, but will probably post in this thread as it’s more appropriate. I’ve been waiting for a faster MCU for 3.5 years!

 

[MP3Mike]

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1275360002132172800

While this is a twitter source they are referencing a Fremont local government document..

And it looks like that was filed in mid-March, and the construction was slated to take ~3 months, so if it a took a month to get approval we could be pretty close to it being completed next month. Or battery day could have been pushed back ~3 months because they just got approval and are starting construction now.

And it is a significant increase in power usage, almost 5x the power usage for the two buildings. (Adding ~72,800 MW/year to the exiting ~20,000MW/year.)

The current battery manufacturing running in those two buildings is called Project Tera, while the expansion is named Project Roadrunner.

 

[Ameliorate]

slight OT
Chamath talking about buying the industry leader vs the #2, 3 and 4rth companies. Starts at 33:40
https://unchainedpodcast.com/chamath-palihapitiya-why-bitcoin-will-be-the-category-winner/

TLDR: The lions share of gains go to the industry leader.
Just buy the industry leader and hope the industry does well, do not buy the runner ups.

I know a few here respect Chamath as do I.
Really just affirming my beliefs that anyone else making EV's would not be a bad thing for Tesla at all.

 

[MP3Mike]

Well, I also think 8500 Plaid S a year is low for demand, at least initially... and it'd definitely be low for S and X, so a bit higher # from better efficiency of the cells just makes it more likely they can meet the S demand

You really think demand for a Plaid Model S, wide body setup for racing, is going to be significantly higher than 8,500/year? (It will likely cost between $125-175k.)

 

[CyberDutchie]

Oh, it doesn't get me down, but it does sort of make me feel ashamed to be a Union member, enough so that it is making me think about leaving the union. (Which would save me ~$1,000/year in union dues.)

I'll say that my local council has done a lot of good for us, but it is obvious that the unions in Travis County really stood up to the plate and recruited people to testify against Tesla with a lot of crap.

How long have you been a union member? Did you calculate how much you'd have if you had instead of paying union dues invested the money in TSLA?

 

[Fred42]

And then they take all they learned getting Kato up and running, and apply it to a much larger scale battery line at Giga Nevada to support Semi and CT (and presumably Plaid X).

Elon previously said battery production in the future would be co-located with vehicle assembly. They're taking a different approach with the semi, but I don't believe he has said CT assembly will not be co-located with battery production. So CT battery production and vehicle assembly might be co-located in TX or OK.

 

[thait84]

slight OT
Chamath talking about buying the industry leader vs the #2, 3 and 4rth companies. Starts at 33:40
https://unchainedpodcast.com/chamath-palihapitiya-why-bitcoin-will-be-the-category-winner/

TLDR: The lions share of gains go to the industry leader.
Just buy the industry leader and hope the industry does well, do not buy the runner ups.

I know a few here respect Chamath as do I.
Really just affirming my beliefs that anyone else making EV's would not be a bad thing for Tesla at all.

Who got rich buying Yahoo?

 

[tinm]

OT but hey.

I have been nagging a longtime friend to buy a Tesla for years, all the way back to 2013 when I got my first S. And he's very frugal and bought used cars in the interim, never indulged in any fancy stuff, but I started noticing a chink in the armor in 2019 and kept at it, offering my referral code, really working on winning him over.

Today he forwards me an email and the subject line is

"Fwd: Thank you for your order"

He ordered a Model Y. Last week he was set on a 3, and then yesterday he emailed asking, "For eight thousand more I could buy a Model Y. Maybe I should get the Y?" and of course I did not discourage him from moving in that direction.

His explanation for buying a Tesla in 2020? After me pestering him for YEARS to get one?
"There's no sense in buying a gasoline vehicle any more."

This is an historic day. He is not an early adopter. This bodes very well for Tesla.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Honestly, if I was Elon, given all the bullshit he has had to put up with in the USA, I'd be looking exclusively to concentrate on expansion in China. China loves Tesla, the US seems to have a lot of hatred for the company. Do they really need to put up with that crap?

I'm not sure if this is a serious post or not.

China is a totalitarian regime which implements a strictly nationalist, imperialist, and mercantilist form of state capitalism. They are being nice to Tesla, quite frankly, because they want to steal all of Tesla's technology and give it to their domestic electric automakers so they can rule the next century of the automobile industry. They industrialized too late for the gasoline era but they are perfectly poised to own the electric era. The moment they no longer need Tesla, they will suddenly find ways to force the company out of China while the NIO, Xpeng, BYD, etc. cars flood the world and destroy all competitors.

China is no one's friend, but Tesla has a golden opportunity to use China for their own ends and try to get the company on solid financial footing and establish manufacturing facilities elsewhere in the world before China kicks them out. It works out for both parties, which is why Giga Shanghai is a thing today.