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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I expect the market to remain where it is until the election, barring a massive second wave that forces another round of lockdowns. Even a small second wave will not result in another lockdown, no one has the stomach for that anymore after the first round of lockdowns resulted in over 40 million unemployed in a matter of a month.

If there is no massive second wave and round of new lockdowns, the market will maintain a glide path until November. Then God knows what will happen. Jerome "The Money Printer" Powell will keep printing until then at least, but after that if the money printer goes silent because either Biden is elected or Trump is re-elected then all bets are off. I don't expect the money printer will last through the election. I don't even know if Jerome "Print Fast Print Furious" Powell will start turning it off before the election but I'm sure his boss will try not to let him so we'll see.

Technically he has no boss save a federal judge in a successful lawsuit, though presidents try to jaw bone Fed chairs. In the present case with the same weapon Samson used. But for now, they are aligned, as you note.
 
So here's my view on Nikola.

Relies on Hydrogen. Volatile/explosive. Difficult to store due to small molecular size. Virtually no existing infrastructure, and the infrastructure is expensive. Energy-intensive to produce. Wrong technology. And will be even more wrong after battery day.

The difference between Tesla and Nikola is that Tesla actually gets things done, then basks in the accolades. Milton pats himself on the back prematurely, before his company has done the hard stuff (like making it a successful selling product). As Elon says, the machine that makes the machine is often harder than the machine itself.

Surprised so few people investing in NKLA this morning recognize that...unless they are all swing traders trying to make a buck on the craze.
 
I am all for more EV and clean energy providers but Nikola so far rubs me the wrong way.

Take his approach - proclaiming Nikola will be as valuable as Amazon one day when they haven't even sold a single vehicle. Suing competitors.

VS

Elon's approach - giving Tesla like a 10% chance to even survive and not proclaiming much success. Focus more on putting the work in.


So my message to Nikola - Less Talk, More Action. Then I'll be on your side.
 
The million dollar question: how long do think that will take?
That's the problem. Personally I think they and their CEO are an absolute joke,band they'll be able to swim(quite briskly) in Tesla's wave for YEARs.

The BS will be successfully explained away over and over. There will always be plenty of idiots not wanting to miss a possible TSLA. And I also predict plenty of support from something best described as the opposite of TSLAQ.
 
35 years ago that was true. It is not now. Tesla already has an iconic brand, enhanced immeasurably every time a Herbert Diess admits they cannot compete or a Cabinet Minister pleads for a new Tesla factory. All the advertising in the world will not come close to those achievements. Will an advertisement enhance US Astronauts riding in Model X to board the first commercial rocket to carry working astronauts? Please reconsider in light of 2020.

I have a different perspective. My work for the past decade, has been in the Pacific Palisades, Brentwood, Bel Air, and Beverly Hills — inspecting the utility electrical interconnections of many of the folks within the film industry. I have held a front row seat to their investments in solar power and electric vehicles. I watched as they have advocated and acted to advance renewable technologies. My wife complains that our Tesla is merely common in West Los Angeles, and she is right. In a very real sense these folks have put their money where their mouth is. They are true believers, drivers of the movement.

I see the film industry as an incredible, untapped resource. Yes, I believe we can and should capture the wind, today.
 
Relies on Hydrogen. Volatile/explosive. Difficult to store due to small molecular size. Virtually no existing infrastructure, and the infrastructure is expensive. Energy-intensive to produce. Wrong technology. And will be even more wrong after battery day.

After an argument with TSLAQ about the Nikola Semi truck, I also learned that fuel cell vehicles possess all of the drawbacks of battery-electric vehicles with none of the positives.

For e.g. the Nikola Semi is targeting a range of 500-750 miles with a 15-20 minute refueling time (source). Tesla Semi was targeting 400 miles of range with a 30 minute charge in April 2019, and that's likely improved since then (source). Fuel cell vehicles suffer similar decreases to range in winter (source). And in the most recent studies, fuel cell vehicles on average experience voltage degradation of 10% after 4,000 hours of runtime (source).

So for TSLAQ to claim that range, charge time, and degradation mean BEV is doomed while claiming that FCEVs are going to put Tesla out of business is idiotic.
 
Partying like it's 1999
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$NKLA is worth $25B... Let that sink in... A company that's never produced a single vehicle, or earned a single dollar in rev... Worth $25B... For context: $TSLA was worth $25B when the stock was at $130 (give or take)... This was almost 1 year after I bought my car, nearly 3 years after their IPO... When they had successfully launched the Roadster, the Model S, had expanded their supercharging network to major US corridors, announced the Model X, publicly announced their plans for Model 3, and a pickup truck. AND hinted at world domination of batteries and collaboration with SCTY!
 
NKLA Options are completely out of whack.

Jan'21 $2.5 PUTs currently have a higher ASK than Jan'22 $2.5 PUTs... that is supposed to be the other way around.
Correct me if I'm wrong (very likely; I don't trade options), but doesn't that pricing imply an expectation of bankrupcy sometime between Jan '21 and Jan '22? ie:Implying that PUTS that far out won't be tradeable/cashable? TIA. ;)

Cheers!
 
Guys, Don't get me wrong, I'm glad that TSLA is up 4% and all but NKLA is up 50% right now for today! Hmm... I may start researching puts.

EDIT: Make that 70%, wow.
Not sure if anyone replied to this... But generally options are not listed for several weeks after a stock IPOs. What you are seeing is a lack of supply and demand from both buyers and short-sellers... I don't have access to short-borrow costs here, but if someone does, please share what's the cost to borrow a share of $NKLA. I suspect it's quite high..

If the conditions are right, $NKLA may run to $100, or $120 in the coming days. People who think the company is overvalued have no way to position their bets other than borrow the stock. As the cost of borrows gets high, and demand pours in, those people get squeezed... Look at $BYND shortly after IPO.

Once more liquidity is added to the market, and/or options become available, $NKLA will come back down to earth.. While it's a gamble, I'm willing to throw money that way at about $20-$25... It's a complete spec even then, but it's worth the risk/reward. Till then steer clear... You will get burned if you try to short it.


EDIT: I'm an idiot... apparently $NKLA options are listed... Hur hur... Still IV is stupidly expensive