Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Not at once no, but at least it's a step in the right direction.

Also, many people do not fear COVID and only stayed at home due to enforced laws. These people will go shopping and the like, kickstarting the economy again.

This is what I’ve been seeing. When a by-hand car wash is PACKED, people sitting around on a patio enjoying the day (with masks on), cake shop line up out the door, construction and landscaping going on on every corner, traffic on highways and in cities picking up, an all day kids camp I heard about is being planned for June 1, and my renos are being completed next week (I got an email outlining the protocols the company has in place and that I need to have in place) - I’m just not seeing widespread fear at all.

SOME people are afraid and they’ll continue to shelter themselves until they are comfortable, but others are ready to get back to a new normal and carry on, risk or not.

 

[Tim S]

Order page for all European countries (o.k., I checked about 10) and Australia says August for deliveries. That likely means they will produce those cars in July, so Q2 is North America only, which fits with your take it will be option 2.

Order page in US says 5-7 weeks for Model 3. Model Y still says "First deliveries begin in March 2020".

 

[LN1_Casey]

OT. Lol, the JDF never operated the A-12. But Hiro piloted a mean mult-trillion dollar Japanese sovereign wealth fund.

People think he was granted $5.45 M in stock options for his boyish good looks?

No, he's here to kick ass and take names, and he's all out of bubblegum...

Cheers!

I personally wonder if having Hiro on the board will make Tesla a more appealing car brand in Japan by the government, who are still very nationalistic.

Possible, especially if Hiro has some sway from his time in the wealth fund.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So much for holding at $800 or $810, let's see how long $820 lasts.

 

[Krugerrand]

I’m going to get in the shower...I suggest y’all do the same.

I’ll have mine in a couple hours to support a rise into closing.

 

[Prunesquallor]

... and +20% above the intraday low last Friday, where some "media aware" investors sold their stakes... <smh>



The email from Tesla HR said resuming limited operations with a 30% recall of staff beginning on Fri, May 8th. That's today, not tomorrow.

If the Country tries to buck this, they had better be prepared for the future loss of tax revenue. IMHO, unless the County can demonstrate that people are dying needlessly because local hospitals have exceeded ICU capacity, its time to get back to work.

Cheers!

IHME model shows CA as a whole has 3x ICU beds available compared to expected need, 2x that of 95% worst need.

 

[wipster]

Nope, there is a shot of the empty drivers seat and the steering wheel turning.

That must be before he gets out of the car... i'll watch again from the beginning of the episode. Thanks for the heads-up!

 

[LN1_Casey]

Tobias Lindh on Twitter

Interesting tweet that shows a picture about the progress of GF Berlin vice GF Shanghai during construction.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Does Tesla Have a Parts Problem? Investors Don’t Seem Worried.

Does Tesla Have a Parts Problem? Investors Don't Seem Worried.

'Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin wrote Friday the reports of a production halt [GigaShanghai] “seem to be confirmed,” adding he believes the extended downtime “was unplanned.”
...
Details are thin. Irwin isn’t sure if the reported delays are because of parts availability, something speculated in multiple media reports. Few on Wall Street, besides Irwin, have written about the issue.
...
He rates shares the equivalent of Sell and has a $350 price target for the stock.'

 

[Unpilot]

So much for holding at $800 or $810, let's see how long $820 lasts.

Apparently not enough of us are in the shower!

 

[Intl Professor]

I’ll have mine in a couple hours to support a rise into closing.

Stock is so boring today we're down to shower times. We have city water meters going in today so received notice no water from 9-1pm today. Not starting on time (almost 10 now). Just thought you needed to know.

 

[Mo City]

Tobias Lindh on Twitter

Interesting tweet that shows a picture about the progress of GF Berlin vice GF Shanghai during construction.

Call me crazy, but Giga Austin starting deliveries ~18 months from contract signing doesn't seem far fetched.

The Cybertruck being a brand new vehicle is a possible hurdle though.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA Half-Time Report:
12:45 EDT

SP 820.66 +40.62 (+5.21%)
Volume: 10.46 M shares traded
Intraday High: 824.00
Upper-BB: 830.87

 

[LN1_Casey]

Call me crazy, but Giga Austin starting deliveries ~18 months from contract signing doesn't seem far fetched.

The Cybertruck being a brand new vehicle is a possible hurdle though.

Well, Overlord Musk stated the next GF would be in Berlin only a month or two before they started working on the spot.

If they make the next US GF announcement soon, it could be by close of next year that GF Wherever is popping out Cybertrucks--in 2021.

 

[ABCTG]

There are a couple options to take, IMO:

1. Resume Typical Operations: This would involve manufacturing European-spec cars for a few weeks to get what they can on ships to Europe, then switch to US vehicles for June.

• Pros: Doesn't introduce any new variables (within their control) to their past logistical processes.
• Cons: Likely reduces the amount of cars that can be delivered in Q2. Ensures the "Wave" logistics problem continues.

2. Maximize Q2 Revenue: In this approach, in an attempt to reduce the pain of Q2, they would manufacture cars purely for the North American market thru the end of Q2. This eliminates the delay for the manufacturing line switchover from NA to Europe config cars and reduces the chance for any shipping/logistical problems. Plus, I'm not sure if MY is certified for European delivery yet anyway.

• Pros: Maximizes revenue/minimizes loss for Q2. Doesn't really introduce any new variables to their past logistical processes.
• Cons: No cars to Europe = sad European customers. Doesn't stop the "wave" logistics problem.

3. Stop-The-Wave Approach: In this approach, Tesla would basically bite the bullet, write off Q2 (after all the market has likely already done that anyway), and focus on taking this opportunity to eliminate the wave logistics problem by switching more frequently between European and NA spec cars. They would ignore the Wall Street calendar and instead focus production on spreading deliveries out evenly through the quarter.

• Pros: "The Wave" disappears. Deliveries are less rushed and spread evenly through the quarter in all regions. Delivery quality improves, logistics problems get reduced significantly.
• Cons: Will likely result in a short-term hit to deliveries/revenue.

I think Tesla will take option (2) for a few reasons:

• With S&P inclusion close, if they believe Q2 can be salvaged with high margin MY deliveries, it will be worthwhile not only to put out decent results compared to other car companies, but also to maximize chances of S&P inclusion.
• With the German factory underway, wave logistics will only be a factor for another year--and with delivery logistics improving bit-by-bit each quarter, if they've survived this long, they can survive another year with wave logistics. They've seen worse.

Before C19, it seemed to me like the European wave was giving an opportunity for the European EV competition to have the first 2 months of the quarter to themselves. There is a lot more EV competition in Europe than in the US.

However, to have constant flow to Europe thru the quarter would mean more changing of the line because of the different requirements for each European country, although they do now have the benefit of Fremont not having to produce for the China market.

Maybe the calculations say it is better to show higher numbers, rather than have steady European sales throughout the quarter. (Unwinding the wave would seem like an Elon thing to do, rather than catering to Wall Street, but it could be the manufacturing for each different European country in smaller batches is just not worth it.)

Option 2 Maximize Q2 Revenue: looks best;

For North America focus on Model Y, and Model 3 Performance and Long Range.

With the addition of; get as many as they can to the UK while they have their large business tax incentive,

 

[Maitri982]

Kevin,



Good morning!



Great news Tesla is re-opening the factory today in Fremont, California.



We should see some news about the Cybertruck during battery day this month about where the factory will be built.



Have a great day!

 

[JRP3]

We should see some news about the Cybertruck during battery day this month about where the factory will be built.

I find that unlikely. Battery Day should be about batteries.

 

[Zaxxon]

Stock is so boring today we're down to shower times. We have city water meters going in today so received notice no water from 9-1pm today. Not starting on time (almost 10 now). Just thought you needed to know.

Wow, they're really taking stock manipulation to new levels!

 

[bhzmark]

I find that unlikely. Battery Day should be about batteries.

Battery day can have a non-battery "one-more-thing." Like semi did. But I agree that cybertruck factory location probably isn't a good candidate.

 

[obie_fl]

I bought some protective Puts in case the water does come back on as planned by 1:00PM