Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dynastar]

But the price will not be the same for buying a FSD for private use or one for robotaxi use.

Why would Tesla sell you a car with FSD added for say 10k and let you make 100 k in x years when they could not sell the car and make that money themselves?

So FSD for robotaxis will be much more expensive. At a price where it would be way too high for private use for those that will not lend their cars to robotaxi fleet. This means there has to be a price difference between private and taxi.

Yes, those that already have paid for FSD before some unknown date will perhaps be able to do so.

In reality it will be subscription for maybe $50/month private use and $500/month taxi. Actually the taxi rate will probably be per mile used as taxi.

I'll eat someones hat if you can still buy FSD for a reasonable amount in five years instead of subscription being the only choice.

It makes much more sense for Tesla to increase or decrease the cut they take from the Tesla Network then it would be to make a 2-tiered pricing structure. You'd have a huge incentive to cheat the system, Tesla would have to put significant energy into policing these tiers, there would be false positives, etc etc etc.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Fun fact: Today the Berlin Airport received the final permission and will open in October 2020

Baubehörde erteilt Nutzungsfreigabe: Chaos-Airport BER darf im Oktober öffnen

Wagers?

 

[ZeApelido]

I haven't seen ANYBODY say (or imply) that everything should open in a week. Although I'm sure pockets of that kind of crazy people exist somewhere.

What I've seen people advocate for here is that low-risk economic activities (like manufacturing) start to ramp back up. Because the current status quo is not sustainable for the length of time that would be necessary if we were to wait for COVID-19 risk to completely go away.

It looks like we might have just bottomed for the day at $757. If you don't have your full complement of TSLA shares you had better pray to your COVID-19 deities that Q1 earnings aren't an upside surprise to the market!

Ok, I’ll play.

What exactly do you think you’re going to be able to do to save your money (in any form) if the virus

a) kills a significant portion of working age humans? Which hasn’t happened and clearly won’t happen, it’s just not that kind of virus.

b) causes repeated ‘waves’ of illness in the population? Which seems likely.

c) causes continued and/or repeated economic shutdowns? Possible but currently unknown.

d) causes healthcare system in developed countries to crash and burn? Up for debate if that’s happened. Certainly specific states/countries have been seriously stressed, others not so much to this point.

Answer: Not a damn thing. It’s out of your control. It’s going to play out however it plays out. And like every other major crisis to hit humanity, life will go on in some form, often better for the crisis.

You thinking having cash in hand is somehow going to protect you from economic upheaval is misguided at best.

Throwing shade at people who think people like you are over the top with their ‘this is an omg serious stance’ is weak sauce.

Only people trapped in idiocy and ignorance are unaware of what’s happening in the world. On the hand, people trapped in a constant state of stress and panic repeatedly telling everyone from their pulpit how omg this is more serious than you even know, gird your loins!! is not helpful and actually counterproductive.

This is how it’s going to work, we’re all eventually getting exposed or a vaccine of some level of efficiency will become available after a chunk of the population has already been exposed.

It’s that simple.

If you think the result of stay at home orders and certain industry/company trials results in a recession then act accordingly, but cease with the melodrama or go back over to the Covid thread to commiserate with them.

There's nothing I can do. It really doesn't matter long term for Tesla (in fact it will probably make them stronger).

I may be right or wrong about short term effects. But I can't time them.

And I don't have the time to wait for the perfect time to buy back any more stock. My 2 yr old daughter just took some socks and dumped them in the toilet!

I bought back the rest of my cash into TSLA 2 hours ago. Enough is enough.

 

[Ratanpara]

But the price will not be the same for buying a FSD for private use or one for robotaxi use.

Why would Tesla sell you a car with FSD added for say 10k and let you make 100 k in x years when they could not sell the car and make that money themselves?

So FSD for robotaxis will be much more expensive. At a price where it would be way too high for private use for those that will not lend their cars to robotaxi fleet. This means there has to be a price difference between private and taxi.

Yes, those that already have paid for FSD before some unknown date will perhaps be able to do so.

In reality it will be subscription for maybe $50/month private use and $500/month taxi. Actually the taxi rate will probably be per mile used as taxi.

I'll eat someones hat if you can still buy FSD for a reasonable amount in five years instead of subscription being the only choice.

I think it will be revenue sharing model, not fix monthly cost, more like app store, Tesla will take % of robo taxi revenues.

 

[dl003]

Fun fact: Today the Berlin Airport received the final permission and will open in October 2020

Baubehörde erteilt Nutzungsfreigabe: Chaos-Airport BER darf im Oktober öffnen

Quick question: does "chaos" mean something else in German?

 

[X Fan]

Wait, are you saying you look at this graph and say "yeah everything has gone back to normal"?

View attachment 536750

Geez-this is a virus. The graph is never going to flatline. Save mostly NY, Hospitals are empty shells compared to normal and are hemorrhaging money. It’s now time to properly protect (versus the idiot Cuomo that put Covid patients into nursing homes) the elderly/at risk population and re-start the engine. Tesla should be allowed to build product, Period!

FWIW: the free money program will soon deplete the US/World’s Treasury’s ability to provide for its constituents and we’ll be in worse shape. On the health end, folks are missing valuable health screenings & investigatory procedures that will cause serious issues downstream.

 

[adiggs]

In protest to the mods? You may not be aware, but one moderator has stepped down (ggr) and another one (me) is taking a more laid back approach. Main reason: we were tired of being ignored about OT stuff, and I guess a lot of posters were equally tired of being bothered by mods about OT stuff. So now it’s mostly up to the posters to self moderate (with the occasional exception). Some days that works out fine, others days - today is one of them - not so much. Protesting will not change anything. It is what it is.

Especially for this thread, I'm in favor of this approach (i.e. mostly hands off). Let posters self moderate. This omnibus thread goes where posters take it.

And that makes it easier for me to go elsewhere in the forum, and be more diligent on my own part, about posting my investing info and topics in more targeted threads, making it easier for me to find what I'm interested in and not get bogged down in conversations I'm not interested in.

 

[Unpilot]

Fun fact: Today the Berlin Airport received the final permission and will open in October 2020

Baubehörde erteilt Nutzungsfreigabe: Chaos-Airport BER darf im Oktober öffnen

Kind of a tough market to open a airport into.
Travel is down just a wee bit.

 

[Nocturnal]

But the price will not be the same for buying a FSD for private use or one for robotaxi use.

Why would Tesla sell you a car with FSD added for say 10k and let you make 100 k in x years when they could not sell the car and make that money themselves?

They will collect RT revenue so that part makes sense. Their share of revenue would be setup so that they would be indifferent to either letting you operate the RT or operating it themselves. The number thrown around was 30%, which seems about right. As far as selling people the vehicle vs keeping on hand for their own fleet of taxis, that really depends on demand and production levels.

Once Tesla is actually close to offering robotaxis money will literally flood in so production may not be a limiting factor at that point.

 

[PV4EV]

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Interesting data link for China Sales Q1 2020, sent to me by relatives in China …


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(Below is Google translate result, language errors included for free :- )

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In the first quarter, there was a drop in luxury cars

Source: Surging News http://mguba.eastmoney.com/mguba/article/0/926089895

In the first quarter, luxury cars did not escape the downward trend, but Tesla is "out of the blue."

According to data from the China Automobile Association, domestic car sales in the first quarter were 3.672 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 42.4%. Under the influence of the epidemic, the once "safe haven" in the luxury vehicle field also saw a drop, and Tesla’s "outbreak" was particularly eye-catching. Data shows that in the first quarter of this year, Tesla increased 73% year-on-year Already pressed the second-tier luxury car camp.

Specifically, in the first quarter, the top three luxury cars are still firmly occupied by BBA. Mercedes-Benz (including the Smart brand) leads the luxury car market with 136,000 sales in the first quarter, but it still fell by 25.9% compared with the same period last year; BMW (Including MINI brand) followed closely, with 9,907 vehicles and Mercedes Benz, temporarily ranked second with 126,000. The third-place Audi sold 114,000 vehicles in the first quarter, down 22.5% year-on-year.

It is reported that Mercedes-Benz's victory is not related to Beijing Benz's early resumption of work. Prior to the severe domestic epidemic in February, Beijing Benz urgently sent a letter to Tianjin City, saying that "a loss of 400 million yuan in one day's suspension of production, requesting a special approved supplier to resume work in advance." After entering March, Mercedes-Benz recovered rapidly in China. Mercedes-Benz GLC sold more than 13,400 vehicles in the month, ranking among the top five in the SUV market; Mercedes-Benz E-class and Mercedes-Benz C-class also performed with sales of 13,900 and 13,100 respectively. Won the first and second place in the luxury brand sedan market.

Entering the luxury second-tier camp, Lexus's leading position is still solid, with a cumulative sales of 32,900 vehicles in the first quarter, compared with 37,700 vehicles in the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 12.7%. It is also the smallest luxury car company in the table data. Cadillac and Volvo are relatively stable, ranking fifth and sixth respectively. Among them, Cadillac experienced a 37.1% decline in the first quarter. In addition to the epidemic resulting in a decline in sales, it also has a certain relationship with the change of the Cadillac XT5 and CT6. Volvo sales in the first quarter fell 25.4% year-on-year to 23,600 vehicles. S60, S90, XC60, XC90 all have substantial discounts.

In the second-tier camp, Tesla "invaded" this "new face" of Tesla. In the first quarter, Tesla’s cumulative sales reached 18,600. In the context of the decline in the luxury car market, it has increased by 73% year-on-year, surpassing the rankings of Jaguar Land Rover, Lincoln and Infiniti. Since the mass production of the domestically produced Model 3 last year, Tesla’s sales in China have continued to increase. Judging by its sales performance of 10,100 vehicles in March, it has been inseparable from high-end cars such as the BMW 5 Series, Audi A6, and Mercedes-Benz C-Class. Uncle Zhong.

As one of the earliest companies to resume work in China, Tesla’s Shanghai plant has started full work since February 10, and its production capacity has quickly exceeded the level before the epidemic.

The three major luxury brands following Tesla are Jaguar Land Rover, Lincoln and Infiniti. Among them, the sales of Jaguar Land Rover, which once led the second-tier luxury cars, fell 38.1% to 13,600 units in the quarter, falling to the eighth place. However, from the data of March, sales of Jaguar Land Rover in China increased by more than 7 times compared with February. The monthly passenger flow and order quantity in the exhibition hall have been significantly improved, showing a recovery trend. In addition to Jaguar Land Rover, Lincoln's January-March sales fell 36.0% to 6768, and Infiniti sales fell 48.7% to 5071.

Under the influence of the epidemic, the average decline of the domestic auto market in the first quarter of this year was more than 40% year-on-year. It can be seen that the luxury auto market is still relatively better than the overall trend of the broader market. However, the trend of polarization in the luxury car market is becoming more and more obvious, and Lincoln, Infiniti and even Acura that have not been on the list have fallen far behind.


(Source of article: Surging News http://mguba.eastmoney.com/mguba/article/0/926089895 )

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[Prunesquallor]

Not sure what the question is, but today $780 seems to be the answer.

 

[andifu]

Kind of a tough market to open a airport into.
Travel is down just a wee bit.

The BER is not a complete airport. It is just a new Terminal.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

You don't believe the last two months have changed (not permanently but for the moment) folks perception of stuff like this? I know it's been like this forever. But I think it will viewed very differently right now. The 'large' corporations that took the federal loans that should have gone to the small businesses got a lot of bad press and in many cases were pressured to give them back. And this was much smaller loans by much smaller companies.

I remember last year media seemed to be mentioning several cases of incentives being sought or given each month. Don't think I've seen either one since the pandemic started so I think both companies and states are aware of how it would look now. Doesn't mean that politicians won't do what they can get away with stealing jobs from other states.

Headlines in media in the next couple of months about Tesla billionaire owner getting 2 billion in tax money from Texas (or anywhere else) would be really bad for Tesla. And that is how it would be presented in media.

We have similar situation, but on a lesser scale I think, going on in the EU where countries are underbidding each other with taxes. I totally agree with your last paragraph about this should be outlawed. Not only on a national but on an international level.

That's called doing business. A company should look for the most fiscally advantageous location to build their factories. In fact it could be argued it us their responsibility.

In exchange for the tax incentives, the localities get thousands of jobs for their residents plus future revenue. It's the way it's done and it is beneficial to both sides.

Dan

 

[StealthP3D]

It's not actually moot. There are still many people in Texas who think you have to drive out of the state to purchase, so they don't even consider it until they are educated.

As I understand the wonderful "free-market" system they have in Texas is that the car can not be physically in the state when you make the transaction. If so, they would have to put Texas made Cybertrucks on a train or truck to another state so they could be sold to Texans before shipping them back into Texas for delivery. At least that was how it was explained to me a couple of years ago by a forum member in Texas (that the physical location of the new vehicle is significant).

Crazy, I know.

 

[woodisgood]

Not sure what the question is, but today $780 seems to be the answer.

Alex: This was determined by MMs to be the optimal launch point for Tesla Q1 earnings.

@Prunesquallor : *mashing button* What is 780!!!

 

[Prunesquallor]

As I understand the wonderful "free-market" system they have in Texas is that the car can not be physically in the state when you make the transaction. If so, they would have to put Texas made Cybertrucks on a train or truck to another state so they could be sold to Texans before shipping them back into Texas for delivery. At least that was how it was explained to me a couple of years ago by a forum member in Texas (that the physical location of the new vehicle is significant).

Crazy, I know.

Hmm, no I don’t think so, if i understand you correctly (at least not anymore). I bought my car on-line. That was matched to an inventory car in San Antonio, which was shipped to Houston.

 

[keydiver]

Quick question: does "chaos" mean something else in German?

I thought the same thing when I read that link. What a bad name for an airport! But, when I ran it through Google translate, I believe it is referring to what a "mess" this airport project has been. So, no, chaos means chaos I believe. Let's hope GF4 goes much better than the airport, or it will get named ChaosGF4.

 

[Buckminster]

New thread:

Subscription model (FSD etc.)

 

[Curt Renz]

Inside EVs - half hour ago: Europe: Tesla Model 3 Sales Surged In March To #1 In Q1 2020

 

[StealthP3D]

Hmm, no I don’t think so, if i understand you correctly (at least not anymore). I bought my car on-line. That was matched to an inventory car in San Antonio, which was shipped to Houston.

How long did it take from completing the paperwork to taking delivery? I didn't think they were allowed to sell out of inventory in Texas. Because that's how dealers do it. They have a bunch of cars on the lot, you pick one out, fill out the paperwork and drive it away. Could it be an exception for vehicles that were ordered but the owner backed out before taking delivery?

And I wonder if the exception whereby Tesla can sell cars in Texas (as long as the "sale" is done on-line in another state) is codified into law or simply an administrative interpretation of what would be allowed under the statutes?