Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggies07]

1) I've really grown to love Chamath as a person, even though I don't know him. His reasons are why I invested in Tesla in 2012. (I know this vid is a year old, but I just found it going down the YouTube rabbit hole....)
2) At the end, is he talking about Gwynne Shotwell from SpaceX?

 

[Artful Dodger]

With the economic downturn a lot of airlines are struggling, the case for a battery powered VTOL plane for short haul flights looks stronger each day..

Not looking stronger given cheap oil and free pollution. Put a price on carbon emissions and we'll talk.

We know Elon has a design in mind, it looks likely that this project will stack up one day, the capital cost of planes and the cost of fuel are major expenses, savings in these area will redraw the market... so a key consideration is the cost of the VTOL plane...

Elon deflated that trial ballon during the Jan 2020 3rd Row Podcast appearance. Gali was hyper about the idea, and Elon said no (maybe in 10 years, but he's got too many higher priorities now).

i have a hunch multiple smaller planes might work better on short haul, once the fuel cost is lower, that is a more regular schedule, with less space needed to land and store planes, with planes initially departing smaller airports.... in fact the number of airports in a city, and the average size of domestic airports may change.

Elon's eVTOL vision is ONLY for transcontinental or regional eJET flights, which means no SSTs (no sonic booms allowed over land/populations).

Transcontinential flights are outside the capabilities of even theoretical battery chemistries, but firmly inside the plans for SpaceX's 'Point-to-Point' terrestial transportation service. A 10K+ km range eVTOL SST would compete with Starship. Then as soon as SpaceX gets the Sabatier Process running on solar energy (in the critical path for Mars colonization), then Starship transport on Earth is carbon neutral too.

 

[FrankSG]

Transcontinential flights are outside the capabilities of currently planned battery chemistries, and firmly inside the plans of SpaceX's Starship 'Point-to-Point' terrestial transportation service. A 10K+ km range eVTOL SST just competes with Starship, and as soon as SpaceX gets the Sabatier Process running on solar energy (in the Gant Chart for Mars colonization) then Starship transport on Earth is carbon neutral too.

If I remember correctly he once said:

Long to super long distances: Rockets
Medium to long distances: VTOL
Short to medium distances: Loop/Hyperloop
Short distances: AEVs

 

[MC3OZ]

Elon's eVTOL vision is ONLY for transcontinental or regional eJET flights, which means no SSTs (no sonic booms allowed over land/populations).

If Elon doesn't do it, perhaps someone else will..

Medium to long distances: VTOL

Exactly what I am thinking of, we need to upper limit of Maxwell tech, 500 wh/Kg for VTOL. it will take 5-10 years...

Our we need something like Hyperloop or high speed rail.

Hyperloop and high speed rail involve considerable infrastructure builds, costs scale with distance travelled.

For VTOL the key is energy density and the capital cost of the planes, VTOL can odiously serve a lot of smaller remote communities.
High speed rail and Hyperloop may have an advantage linking major cities in relatively close proximity.

Lots of Airlines fail each year, even in good times, in bad times most airlines need a bailout...at best Airlines run on thin margins with high capital costs...

I'm just wondering if the current situation is giving Elon any ideas, short haul air travel is a problem crying out for a good solution...

 

[TSLA Pilot]

With oil this low I bet Texas will be willing to give Tesla pretty much anything they want to build a factory there. They're about to lose a ton of jobs.

While I would love to agree, as a Texas resident I fear that there are MANY in positions of power here that would rather have Tesla dead.

The phrase, "Cutting off your nose to spite your face" comes to mind.

We still can't "purchase" a Tesla here (all sales are "out of state transactions," at least on paper), and Teslas are prohibited from any EV rebates as they are not sold via "dealers."

Overall, despite the talk of a Free Market, the game is very much rigged here, and there will be many trying to "save" the dead men walking in the fossil fuel industry rather than adapt to the future reality.

(Let's hope I'm wrong though!)

 

[Cattledog]

1) I've really grown to love Chamath as a person, even though I don't know him. His reasons are why I invested in Tesla in 2012. (I know this vid is a year old, but I just found it going down the YouTube rabbit hole....)
2) At the end, is he talking about Gwynne Shotwell from SpaceX?

2. Hope so.

 

[Dharma]

ARK sold some TSLA today.
ARKK 15334 shares (out of 425,113 shares held; 3.6%)
ARKQ 2244 (31,490; 7.1% )
ARKW 1187 (107,025; 1.1%)

I haven't been tracking them long enough to know if this is rebalancing due to TSLA exceeding their maximum %, or they expect we have hit a local top here.

 

[phantasms]

I haven't been tracking them long enough to know if this is rebalancing due to TSLA exceeding their maximum %, or they expect we have hit a local top here.

Rebalancing. I believe they're unable to have a single stock be more than 10%. They picked up a ton at the recent bottom.

p.s. Great name!

 

[willow_hiller]

Rebalancing. I believe they're unable to have a single stock be more than 10%. They picked up a ton at the recent bottom.

p.s. Great name!

This exactly.

Just checked ARKK for reference, and TSLA was up to 12%. They had to sell by their own portfolio management rules.

 

[Mo City]

While I would love to agree, as a Texas resident I fear that there are MANY in positions of power here that would rather have Tesla dead.

The phrase, "Cutting off your nose to spite your face" comes to mind.

We still can't "purchase" a Tesla here (all sales are "out of state transactions," at least on paper), and Teslas are prohibited from any EV rebates as they are not sold via "dealers."

Overall, despite the talk of a Free Market, the game is very much rigged here, and there will be many trying to "save" the dead men walking in the fossil fuel industry rather than adapt to the future reality.

(Let's hope I'm wrong though!)

I definitely think you are wrong. Abbott and the legislature would do everything in their power to bring a GF to Texas if Elon wanted to build here. The Cybertruck is going to be built somewhere and being stupid about it would not injure Tesla at all. As I said in an earlier post, this would be the signature event that would define Abbott's governorship.

The oil companies understand that and won't press hard because they lose wherever the new GF is built.

 

[XHabjab]

TSLA never trades 'in line' with the NASDAQ-100 ( I use QQQ as a proxy since it also reports After-hrs). TSLA usually moves at some multiple of the QQQ such as 2x, which it did most of today since 08:00 hrs.

The 1st MMD was a move against the QQQ macro trend, but TSLA recovered quickly. The 2nd MMD was with the macros but at a higher multipler, and was also defeated.

However in the last 10 minutes of the main session, TSLA moved 9.4x vs the QQQ. The multiplier from 15:30 to the Close avg'd 2.4x.

That's how they do it. This IS manipulation.

View attachment 534318

Doesn't sound like a big deal? If TSLA dropped at just 2x vs QQQ (instead of 9.4x), then TSLA would have closed at $750.51 instead of $746.36

That's $765M in TSLA market cap extracted via manipulation. And it will affect this evening's margin calls.

The Close is the SP of record. This matters (c.f. 6-mth and 30-day Market Cap targets)

Regards,
Lodger

So, it seems to me that a lot of people weren't paying attention today in the stock market and oil trading. Things got a little out of hand. What happened today?
Oh yeah it's 4/20 day...

Better luck tomorrow everybody!

 

[FrankSG]

For anyone (like me) who isn't super well versed in the oil industry and overall world economy, @DaveT released a very informative episode today explaining more about the causes and effects of the drop in today's oil prices:

 

[Curt Renz]

Ben & Mitch Zacks were regular guests of mine on my old TV show. Here's what one of their stock strategists wrote today regarding Tesla.

LInk to article at Zacks.com: Tesla Share Can't Stop & Won't Stop

 

[abasile]

I haven't been tracking them long enough to know if this is rebalancing due to TSLA exceeding their maximum %, or they expect we have hit a local top here.

Definitely rebalancing. However, ARK does have some latitude in terms of how they time their rebalancing sales. Tesla is about to report Q1 earnings, which could send the stock price significantly up or significantly down. If a fund manager (or individual investor) is going to take profits anyway, it makes sense to lock in at least some of the gains before the earnings report.

 

[kbeckley]

1) I've really grown to love Chamath as a person, even though I don't know him. His reasons are why I invested in Tesla in 2012. (I know this vid is a year old, but I just found it going down the YouTube rabbit hole....)
2) At the end, is he talking about Gwynne Shotwell from SpaceX?

I too have grown to appreciate Chamath's viewpoints. So cogent and focused on the right problems.

I believe he is talking about Dr Sara Spangelo at Swarm.

Separately, I would love to hear at battery day about physical expansion at the Nevada gigafactory. It seems clear that they have been able to massively increase their volumetric efficiency for battery production over the last few years. But at some point that building will need to grow (or not?). Perhaps integration of the Maxwell tech fan forstall that day.

 

[Jack6591]

It is the Perfect Time for Tesla to Take Control of the Narrative — the Perfect Time to Advertise.

Often, sensible arguments are made that “demand” trumps Tesla’s need to advertise. While persuasive, they overlook sound reasoning for advertising.

In Simon Sinek’s Ted Talk “How Great Leaders Inspire Action” — he uses Apple’s Think Different messaging — to demonstrate inspiration to action. Emphasizing, “People don’t buy what you, they buy why you do it.” Apple compellingly communicated their corporate ethos; We think differently in everything we do.

Tesla’s strategy of replacing mine and burn with renewable energy and sustainable transportation is a good thing, a good thing for our children. We act to benefit our children.

This is the perfect moment in time, to tell a good story. To define Tesla with a better narrative. Tesla’s narrative.

 

[Mo City]

Bad start in Germany for TL0. EUR682.10 ($739.00). At one point it was at $732.00.

 

[JRP3]

This is the perfect moment in time, to tell a good story. To define Tesla with a better narrative. Tesla’s narrative.

Still no need for paid advertising that I can see. A single tweet from Elon reaches more people, for free.

 

[WarpedOne]

Advertising of a good thing is still advertising ... feeding the bad dog in the heart of our society.
Advertising industry is the roots of modern world.

It must die.

 

[AZRI11]

Bad start in Germany for TL0. EUR682.10 ($739.00). At one point it was at $732.00.

If I'm reading it right only 98 shares traded so far this morning in Frankfurt