Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

Hi, it’s me again, the (dis)obedient son of his parents

Previously my parents were mad that I didn’t sell at 700 or 600 or 500ish price ahead of the pandemic or during the drop.
Yesterday my dad asked me to sell again. I said I will ask God to confirm.

I just got His inspiration that I should have a long term view. Unless I am sure this $720 price now is the highest point in 2 years or it could drop back to $560 (wow, SP of two days ago), I shouldn’t sell because the tax won’t allow me to buy same number of shares back.

For #1, my major idea against it is, since the economy is hurt already, even after Fremont factory open and restore of economy, will there be people willing to buy new and expensive cars? I think the pandemic will greatly change the way people travel and commute.

For #2, this rally now is too fast, very similar to the one before. It must be some kind of short squeeze and price is likely to drop to $560, or even lower, one the “sell on news” phase start. I am worried that Elon will have to adjust the guidance in the ER.

What do you say? “People bought more private cars after SARS” was the reason I didn’t sell during the previous downturn. “however, when you figure you can buy a Camry or an Accord Hybrid for around 1/2 the price of a Tesla it doesnt make much sense for the average buyer.”

TE could play a game changer slowly, or never happen.
RobotTaxi... I don’t know, could it reduce the car sales badly?

If the stock market is shut down tomorrow and won't come back online for 10 years, what will you do with your TSLA shares?
Do that.

 

[Nocturnal]

What do you say? “People bought more private cars after SARS” was the reason I didn’t sell during the previous downturn. “however, when you figure you can buy a Camry or an Accord Hybrid for around 1/2 the price of a Tesla it doesnt make much sense for the average buyer.”

TE could play a game changer slowly, or never happen.
RobotTaxi... I don’t know, could it reduce the car sales badly?

If Robotaxi works then Tesla will be printing money. Also, Tesla buyers do not equal the average buyer. This recession is not hurting all portions of society equally. The retail, restaurant, and service workers who lost their jobs weren't potential Tesla buyers. Office workers who are now working remote, those are Tesla buyers.

 

[Pezpunk]

Hi, it’s me again, the (dis)obedient son of his parents

Previously my parents were mad that I didn’t sell at 700 or 600 or 500ish price ahead of the pandemic or during the drop.
Yesterday my dad asked me to sell again. I said I will ask God to confirm.

I just got His inspiration that I should have a long term view. Unless I am sure this $720 price now is the highest point in 2 years or it could drop back to $560 (wow, SP of two days ago), I shouldn’t sell because the tax won’t allow me to buy same number of shares back.

For #1, my major idea against it is, since the economy is hurt already, even after Fremont factory open and restore of economy, will there be people willing to buy new and expensive cars? I think the pandemic will greatly change the way people travel and commute.

For #2, this rally now is too fast, very similar to the one before. It must be some kind of short squeeze and price is likely to drop to $560, or even lower, one the “sell on news” phase start. I am worried that Elon will have to adjust the guidance in the ER.

What do you say? “People bought more private cars after SARS” was the reason I didn’t sell during the previous downturn. “however, when you figure you can buy a Camry or an Accord Hybrid for around 1/2 the price of a Tesla it doesnt make much sense for the average buyer.”

TE could play a game changer slowly, or never happen.
RobotTaxi... I don’t know, could it reduce the car sales badly?

if you're investing in Tesla, it should be because you believe in the long-term vision of the company, not because you're trying to prove to your dad you can make a quick buck on a monthly basis. TSLA is the *WRONG* vehicle for that. This stock WILL go way up and way down. And neither you nor anyone else will be able to predict when. If you try to time the market, you'll eventually lose your ass.

If you need regular, reliable short-term gains, buy bonds or find an interest-bearing savings account. TSLA is an aggressive long-term play. Safety not guaranteed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Clean air for Angelenos? "Video or it never happened":

"Helicopter View of Los Angeles (Update) | April 10th 2020"

EVs can't come fast enough, but 'gassers' gotta go too.

#EPA #DOYOURJOB

 

[gerebgraus]

Mr. Munro Despite his past record I think he's out of date on industrial automation too.

In the Model 3 ramp misery one substantial problem was the conveyance system. I have noticed that in the Shanghai general assembly once body powertain comes together there is no conveyance system. The cars on autopilot on the assembly line. I am not sure that Mr. Munro will recognize that. The advantage not only the cost os the system, but it gives tremendous flexibility to change things around, moving the cars at variable speed ahead getting cars out of the line, etc.
I also have respect with Mr. Munro at the same time. For me the most important thing that he tells frequently that he is very happy with things. To me that means that Tesla is at the least on par with the best legacy makers on manufacturing. This was not true at the Model 3 ramp yet. Tesla improves much faster than anybody, and that means that they have no real disadvantage any more other than the cost of BEV compared ICE (and this will disappear soon. I mean really soon, and not Elon soon.) and scale, I am really not even sure that is true. The sell less cars than BMW and Daimler, but because Tesla build less models, the scale / model is similar. Also Tesla is growing unlike these guys.

 

[mblakele]

Has this news from Missouri been priced in?

Tesla courted with $1 Billion incentive for Cybertruck Gigafactory in Missouri

Recent reports from Missouri reveal that Joplin is offering a $1 billion package to Tesla if the electric car maker decides to build its upcoming Cybertruck Gigafactory in the city. The $1 billion package includes a massive 1,042-acre plot of land at a 50% discount, a 100% tax break for 12 years, and generous state incentives. Considering that the city is located at the heart of America’s pickup truck industry, Joplin’s pitch may very well be compelling for the electric car maker.

In a briefing on Monday, president of the chamber Toby Teeter mentioned that a formal proposal outlining the city’s offer has already been submitted to Tesla Corporate about a week ago. This places Joplin in the running against cities like Austin, TX, which is rumored to be the frontrunner in Tesla’s Cybertruck Gigafactory race, and Tulsa, OK [...]​

 

[Krugerrand]

What do you say?

Are you 2?
Are you 12?
Are you 22?

1) Parents don’t actually expect children to listen to them after the age of 1 and certainly not by the second child.

2) There should be a Family Feud question: 100 people were asked at what age did you stop listening to your parents? I’m pretty sure you’re older than the number 1 answer.

3) Why do you allow your parents to dictate choices in your life. I presume you’re a grown up and it’s your money? Be an adult, make your own decisions and own the consequences good or bad. That’s how you learn and grow.

 

[The Accountant]

u/__TSLA__ on Reddit just posted a really interesting finding about $140M in deferred revenue from credits sold to FCA in 2019:



Maybe @The Accountant could tell us how long Tesla is allowed to defer this revenue? I'd imagine not indefinitely.

The Deferred Revenue (from regulatory credits) of $140m at Dec 2019 can be deferred indefinitly as long as Tesla and its auditors believe the amount is "realizable".
However, in the 10K, Tesla states the following:
" We expect to recognize the deferred revenue as of December 31, 2019 in the next 12 months".
My expectation is that Tesla will recognize this in Q1 2020. I don't know if we can say that this $140m in revenue will be in addition to what they typically recognize each quarter (about $135m). Does it mean regulatory credits will be $275m (140+135)? Not sure.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Meanwhile, European car factories are reopening Apr 22(FT)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Halftime Report: 12:45 pm ET, Tue Apr 14, 2020

SP: $729.19 +$78.24 (+12.0%)
Vol: 20.35 M shares​

Cheers!

 

[Nocturnal]

I have to say, for a while now I've not wanted to increase my exposure to Tesla as it is already over half of my portfolio. Given the recent news and how Tesla is positioned to absolutely dominate the EV and luxury car markets as we pull out of the Ronacession, has me considering increasing my stake further. Especially as the market is insane right now and I think most everything else is overpriced.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Recharging stranded Teslas is not a thing. Welding, however, is. If cybertruck could put out enough power to weld stuff, that would be awesome.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Meh. More likely Elon will explain why things are as they are and perhaps agree that a few things should have been different.

The interview is out now for early access on patreon. Im only partway through but highlights so far:

-Model Y heatpump has what Elon calls “next level” technology using a design closer to a printed circuit board rather than pipes internally. It also has a local resistive heating loop to get the heatpump started in low temps. The heatpump is mainly what lets the Y get the same range as the 3.

-Model Y’s rear casting will go from 2 piece to 1 piece later this year. The casting is only possible with giant 6000lb casting machine. Tesla has one now and will get 2nd in about a month.

- Elon says maybe Model 3’s patchwork rear frame could get retrofit with a casting later, but he has to pick his battles due to limited time/effort/money

 

[Mkorpal]

Has this news from Missouri been priced in?

Tesla courted with $1 Billion incentive for Cybertruck Gigafactory in Missouri

Recent reports from Missouri reveal that Joplin is offering a $1 billion package to Tesla if the electric car maker decides to build its upcoming Cybertruck Gigafactory in the city. The $1 billion package includes a massive 1,042-acre plot of land at a 50% discount, a 100% tax break for 12 years, and generous state incentives. Considering that the city is located at the heart of America’s pickup truck industry, Joplin’s pitch may very well be compelling for the electric car maker.

In a briefing on Monday, president of the chamber Toby Teeter mentioned that a formal proposal outlining the city’s offer has already been submitted to Tesla Corporate about a week ago. This places Joplin in the running against cities like Austin, TX, which is rumored to be the frontrunner in Tesla’s Cybertruck Gigafactory race, and Tulsa, OK [...]​

Joplin? Seems a little out of the way.

 

[Nocturnal]

- Elon says maybe Model 3’s patchwork rear frame could get retrofit with a casting later, but he has to pick his battles due to limited time/effort/money

Probably a losing cost/benefit equation on that one. It would mean downtime and extra costs.

Joplin? Seems a little out of the way.

I don't know much about Joplin myself. Not sure where I'd pick in the MO. I would think being nearish to KC would make sense though.

 

[mongo]

In the Model 3 ramp misery one substantial problem was the conveyance system. I have noticed that in the Shanghai general assembly once body powertain comes together there is no conveyance system.

Yes, there is a conveyance system. It is the grey strips the car is resting on between the bump textured sections. Working on a live self guided vehicle would be not be a good approach for the workers nor the car's electrical system.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Tesla has been trading relatively flat for the last couple hours. High 720's low 730's, with quite high volume, I don't think it'll maintain this. I think it'll break away from this before the end of the day.

Of course, the +$80 is nice too. I'm certainty not complaining.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Repost from Shorting Oil thread....

 

[GOVA]

Repost from Shorting Oil thread....

View attachment 532274

It's funny, because it is true.

 

[Mkorpal]

I don't know much about Joplin myself. Not sure where I'd pick in the MO. I would think being nearish to KC would make sense though.

There really isn't much there. I suppose it could work if you assume there is little need for tech jobs at the factory.