Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

The heat pump is part of the reason the Y range is so close to the 3 in spite of it's larger cross-section.

Considering that the driving range and MPGe estimates published on the Monroney sticker of all new EVs are typically calculated with respect to an ambient temperature ranging between 20 to 30 °C (68 to 86 °F), I think the class-leading range of the Model Y is due to inherent technology advantages (not the heat pump).

 

[Boomer19]

This data is the NASDAQ volume weighted average per-minute selling price for the After-hrs minutes which included those big dips. You can see that the VWAP is not exactly at the strke price for an options contract, nor is the number of shares traded exactly in multiples of 100 shares (1 contract).

View attachment 532240

If you'd like, I can solve the matrix for you to extract the number of contracts sold, and the number of single shares sold and the price at which they traded. Excel 'goal seek' handles this nicely.

So no, the executiion of the options contract does not affect the market SP, since in effect it is a closed transaction on top of regular after-hrs trading. Look at the VWAP for the 18-52 minute: $676.15 which was within pennies of the SP pre/post 'dip'.

Cheers!

here is what they have to say about the calc of VWAP

Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is a more comprehensive way to calculate the average price that a stock trades at over a given time frame. In the tables below, you can see minute-by-minute VWAP results for NDAQ stock, as well as summarized daily values. Additionally, you can view the VWAP data gathered in premarket trading or after hours trading. The Intermarket Sweep Order (ISO) is considered an aggressive marketable order that seeks immediate execution by sweeping the top of book of the lit exchanges. The ISO order can be an indication that a market participant is aggressively taking liquidity in a certain direction. Odd Lot trades are less than 100 shares and indicate smaller retail participation. TRF Trades are reported by dark pools to Trade Reporting Facilites and represent activity away from the mainstream or "lit" exchanges.

maybe these were TRF trades, or similar to 'pre-arranged' trades that papafox sometimes references in his posts.
also note, not all dark pool trades are reported, so reporting some but not all does not give the full picture of what is booked by all participants of the transaction(s)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ouch. Yup

Naw, it's just macros / beta

 

[SageBrush]

Not speaking for @mongo. The entire 'Octobottle' assembly can be a single pre-assembled installation. Forgetting about function, the assembly cost is a tiny fraction of the Model 3 for equivalent function, which itself was vastly cheaper than teh Model S and X. We will hear, maybe, but I'll wager that that assembly alone saves >$200 in labor while reducing maintenance costs. The heat pump itself we'll hear more about. That one is a marvel all it's own. With luck somebody on Munro's team is competent to judge from a functional perspective. he does have some serious HVAC talent on call.

My 4 great loves from the mind of man (in decreasing order) are:

Bicycles
PV
Batteries
Heat Pumps

I'm glad to hear that Tesla is using them, but no less important to me is the thought that heat pumps will become pervasive everywhere.

 

[StealthP3D]

You might recall that even Elon took most of Munro's suggestions and implemented many of them. Since Munro is a GTA/MI kind of person, having never lived outside that area, he has and several biases. That said, he mostly was correct, as much as it pains us to admit it.

There has never been a product that couldn't be improved in some way. Tesla is constantly improving its products and would do so with or without Munro. Most of his suggestions were not how the product could be improved but how it could be built more cheaply. Putting Munro in charge of Tesla's production would be a disaster. One thing I like about Tesla is the way they put the quality into things you can't see, like the safety and rigidity of the structure, rather than slathering on expensive looking interior additions.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Carsonight
@carsonight
For whatever it's worth, I was with some GF1 employees today. One from Panasonic said he's going back to work this Wednesday, one from Tesla is going back the following Monday, motors never shut down, and parts of battery have been on part time hours. Looks like back to work.
Carsonight on Twitter

Yes, it was obvious from the start of the shutdown that motor production (and drive electronics) would continue at GF1/Sparks to allow uninterrupted production at GF3/Shanghai. That's the 25% of the facility that DIDN'T get shutdown.

Right now (and until the GF3/Phase 1.5 "Bty Workshop" is in production), the motors and drive inverters/power electronics are coming from Nevada. Based on the latest drone video from "WuWa Vision", showing a number of vans parked at the loading docks at the GF3 bty workshop, that time may arrive soon.

Further to GF1/Sparks, Tesla does in-house manufacturing for the cell components needed by Panasonic's production lines: cell cans, end caps, integrated fuses. This shutdown is a great opportunity to build an inventory buffer of those components, and/or to add production capacity for those components which are the current bottleneck for total cell production.

Cheers!

 

[mongo]

Now that is a happy thought. I gather that you think the heat pump cost is less than the savings from being able to avoid other parts ?

It may well be, if not at first, then over the life of the car.

Hopefully not too OT.
Things removed:
HV PTC heating element, controller, harness (HV and LV), HV fuse, penthouse connections.
Radiator mounted air to refrigerant condenser plus hoses
Individual coolant valves
Possibly the cabin temperature blend door.

Things added:
Second TXV (Thermal expansion value)
Liquid condenser
Cabin condenser
Octovalve
LV heaters in cabin HVAC for dual zone control
Coolant hoses for mixed mode.

Things modified:
Likely less refrigerant needed.
Refrigerant Direction valve? May be in the original design.

Assembly wise, the entire frunk cross car assembly can be made off-line then bolted in followed by the 4 refrigerant connections made to the firewall. No need for the radiator to be in place. This is also great for longevity and front end accidents since the HVAC should be immune from repairable accidents.

Considering that the driving range and MPGe estimates published on the Monroney sticker of all new EVs are typically calculated with respect to an ambient temperature ranging between 20 to 30 °C (68 to 86 °F), I think the class-leading range of the Model Y is due to inherent technology advantages (not the heat pump).

I'm sure the recent motor efficiency improvements help (as seen in the S and X range adjustments).
The Y was also tested with the 5 cycle test (includes 20F, 21.2 MPH average test) and a different adjustment factor was used. This gives greater impact to low speed driving when energy usage other than for motion is a larger factor. Real world seasonal data will be interesting.

2) The scalar from 2-cycle to 5-cycle results is much larger for Model Y than for Model 3. This means that although the Model Y dyno results are considerably worse than Model 3, the scaled results (for the city) are very similar between the two vehicles. I would expect that this will mean that it's harder to get the predicted mileage in a Model Y...

Edit: typo

 

[jhm]

Trump’s New Auto Rollback Is an Economic Disaster

Efforts to rollback CAFE standard could eliminated jobs in auto industry and do not pass a reasonable cost-benefit analysis test. Basically investments automakers made into higher efficiency tech don't pay off, some auto workers get laid off, and consumer pay more a pump to operate newer vehicles.

Additionally what is not contemplated here is the strategy risk of legacy automakers not transitioning into the EV market. Balancing CAFE standards was one way automakers could hedge the risks of bringing EVs to market. CAFE standards imply an internal cross-subsidization from fuel hogs to fuel efficient vehicles. It's part of what make compliance EVs cost effective to make. Legacy automakers may become less motivated to develop critical EV capabilities in the short run and fail in the long run when EVs becomes the profit and growth engine of the industry.

Meanwhile this looks good for Tesla. Musk has complained that Tesla only gets fraction of the economic value that legacy makers get from CAFE credits. These credits have internally subsided fuel efficient vehicles. This in particular has made it harder for Tesla to make the economics of econo-sized cars work. That is, Tesla would need to compete with a subsidized vehicle that is only sold to enable the company to sell profitable trucks and SUVs. What happens when this is relaxed? Legacy automakers will make fewer fuel efficient vehicles. This means prices for environmentally sensible cars can go up. But it makes little difference to Tesla's costs. So on a comparative basis Tesla becomes more competitive in fuel efficient segments. Legacy ICE makers could exit these segments altogether allowing Tesla to dominate those segments. The OEMs will retreat into trucks and SUVs, but even there Tesla has a clear advantage supplying consumers with lower operating cost alternatives, plus all of the hedonic value of a fine electric drivetrain.

Net result, I think Tesla benefits from relaxing CAFE standards, while legacy automakers lose their strategic pathway into the EV age. Tesla could be positioned to dominate the future US auto market.

 

[jhm]

The key to happiness is low expectations.

Yeah, I wouldn't count on it.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Trump’s New Auto Rollback Is an Economic Disaster

Efforts to rollback CAFE standard could eliminated jobs in auto industry and do not pass a reasonable cost-benefit analysis test. Basically investments automakers made into higher efficiency tech don't pay off, some auto workers get laid off, and consumer pay more a pump to operate newer vehicles.

Additionally what is not contemplated here is the strategy risk of legacy automakers not transitioning into the EV market. Balancing CAFE standards was one way automakers could hedge the risks of bringing EVs to market. CAFE standards imply an internal cross-subsidization from fuel hogs to fuel efficient vehicles. It's part of what make compliance EVs cost effective to make. Legacy automakers may become less motivated to develop critical EV capabilities in the short run and fail in the long run when EVs becomes the profit and growth engine of the industry.

Meanwhile this looks good for Tesla. Musk has complained that Tesla only gets fraction of the economic value that legacy makers get from CAFE credits. These credits have internally subsided fuel efficient vehicles. This in particular has made it harder for Tesla to make the economics of econo-sized cars work. That is, Tesla would need to compete with a subsidized vehicle that is only sold to enable the company to sell profitable trucks and SUVs. What happens when this is relaxed? Legacy automakers will make fewer fuel efficient vehicles. This means prices for environmentally sensible cars can go up. But it makes little difference to Tesla's costs. So on a comparative basis Tesla becomes more competitive in fuel efficient segments. Legacy ICE makers could exit these segments altogether allowing Tesla to dominate those segments. The OEMs will retreat into trucks and SUVs, but even there Tesla has a clear advantage supplying consumers with lower operating cost alternatives, plus all of the hedonic value of a fine electric drivetrain.

Net result, I think Tesla benefits from relaxing CAFE standards, while legacy automakers lose their strategic pathway into the EV age. Tesla could be positioned to dominate the future US auto market.

I also think this is a terrible timing for this rollback (not that I agree with it in the slightest).

This is passed when A) Tesla's are amazing, and more and more people are interested in it, B) People have become more conscious of the ickiness of gas pumps and how much cleaner plugging in at home is, and C) people have looked outside and seen the sheer difference the lack of emissions has been to their areas due to people not driving terrible gas powered vehicles. People like being able to see the skyline from their homes, or the mountains, or the stars. This makes them more inclined for more emission controlled vehicles, if not electric from the start.

This is like the free shot of alcohol to an addict who's trying to quit and saying, "Here buddy, I know you love this stuff." Do they like it in the short term? Perhaps. Does this help them? No.

 

[Nocturnal]

I also think this is a terrible timing for this rollback (not that I agree with it in the slightest).

This is past when A) Tesla's are amazing, and more and more people are interested in it, B) People have become more conscious of the ickiness of gas pumps and how much cleaner plugging in at home is, and C) people have looked outside and seen the sheer difference the lack of emissions has been to their areas due to people not driving terrible gas powered vehicles. People like being able to see the skyline from their homes, or the mountains, or the stars. This makes them more inclined for more emission controlled vehicles, if not electric from the start.

This is like the free shot of alcohol to an addict who's trying to quit and saying, "Here buddy, I know you love this stuff." Do they like it in the short term? Perhaps. Does this help them? No.

Any company that jumps on it is also being really stupid. Those rules could be reversed as soon as Jan 2021.

 

[jhm]

Indeed. That's one step before the "Oh no, we're at ATH but I got out at what I thought was the local high last week! Help me bring the SP down, guys!"

These are the same guys who, when the price does pull back, will to go on to say, "Meh, not really interested anymore."

 

[Krugerrand]

And Elon appearing at the same podcast as Munro this week seems like a kind of endorsement from Elon.

Meh. More likely Elon will explain why things are as they are and perhaps agree that a few things should have been different.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Any company that jumps on it is also being really stupid. Those rules could be reversed as soon as Jan 2021.

Indeed. And at the minimum, they're faced with producing two versions of the vehicles anyway: USA and Rest of the World. This is no different from their current situation where CARB states require different vehicle emissions equipment than the rest of the USA.

Unless you don't WANT to be a car maker: that's exactly the reason why GM stopped selling cars in Europe. They decided it was too expensive to make their products qualify to be sold legally in the Euro market, so they simple left the playing field.

GM better hope that Tesla never produces a superior Pickup truck or SUV... OH WAIT

 

[Quesder]

Hi, it’s me again, the (dis)obedient son of his parents

Previously my parents were mad that I didn’t sell at 700 or 600 or 500ish price ahead of the pandemic or during the drop.
Yesterday my dad asked me to sell again. I said I will ask God to confirm.

I just got His inspiration that I should have a long term view. Unless I am sure this $720 price now is the highest point in 2 years or it could drop back to $560 (wow, SP of two days ago), I shouldn’t sell because the tax won’t allow me to buy same number of shares back.

For #1, my major idea against it is, since the economy is hurt already, even after Fremont factory open (can postpone again) and restore of economy, will there be people willing to buy new and expensive cars? I think the pandemic will greatly change the way people travel and commute.

For #2, this rally now is too fast, very similar to the one before. It must be some kind of short squeeze and price is likely to drop to $560, or even lower, one the “sell on news” phase start. I am worried that Elon will have to adjust the guidance in the ER.

What do you say? “People bought more private cars after SARS” was the reason I didn’t sell during the previous downturn. “however, when you figure you can buy a Camry or an Accord Hybrid for around 1/2 the price of a Tesla it doesnt make much sense for the average buyer.”

TE could play a game changer slowly, or never happen.
RobotTaxi... I don’t know, could it reduce the car sales badly?

 

[Krugerrand]

Today we're up 100% over March 18th, less than a month ago.

Yes, but it seems like 10 years because people are sooooooo bloody melodramatic.

Act like you’ve been here and done that before...because, you know — we have.

 

[Buckminster]

Shortzes have had a kicking over the last month. Considering the number of companies that are likely to go bankrupt soon, you would think that there would be easier pickings for their likes in this market.

 

[Curt Renz]

Piper Sandler (formerly Piper Jaffray) managing director and chief technical analyst Craig Johnson was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show. I still get his newsletters. In early 2013 he recommended TSLA and I bought my initial shares. Below is the summary of his market opinion today. He also recommended a number of stocks today. I'm posting the two that I actually own, including TSLA.

Craig's Piper Sandler colleague Alexander Potter currently has a BUY rating on TSLA and an $820 price target.
____________________________________

In summary, based on the +20% advance off the recent March lows, the bear market for stocks has concluded, and we believe the low of the cycle has been set. Fundamental expectations have been reset, and the bar should be low for the upcoming earnings season. From our perspective, bad news is most likely old news at this juncture. The technical backdrop for the broader market also continues to improve. The recent recovery rally has reversed a downtrend on the SPX, while momentum and breadth move in the right direction. We continue to recommend investors increase equity exposure and reiterate our year-end price objective on the SPX of 3,600.

• Tesla Inc (TSLA - $650.95); Indicated higher this AM; shares have confirmed support off a prior breakout level and reversed a ST downtrend; back above the 10-/30-week WMAs; RS is confirming the bullish price action; notable TechniGrade ranking; add to positions, the next levels of overhead resistance set up near $805 and $901.

• Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN - $2168.87); Shares have broken above the upper end of a LT ascending triangle; back above the 10-/30-week WMAs; RS and volume are confirming the breakout; impressive TechniGrade ranking and recent insider buying activity; add to positions, as we suspect more upside lies ahead.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Model Y E18: Instrument Panel (IP) Assembly & Comparison MY-M3"

 

[Krugerrand]

The key to happiness is low expectations.

I’ll go one better than that; have no expectations. Then there is never any disappointment or upset.

Do your best, have short, medium and long term goals (adjust as necessary), have an Olympic type dream, and take one day at a time, one foot in front of the other, heading toward your goals and dream.

Finally, enjoy the journey because the end is never as fabulous as you imagined it would be.

Feel free to toss me a TSLA share or two as payment for my sage advice or insist Tesla has a demand problem so I’m forced to get richer.