Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, Mar 06, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $695.02
Volume: 12,663,559
Traded: $8,801,408,113.04 ($8.80 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 101.23%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)​

Comment: "Mirror, Mirror on Wall Street, who's the richest of them Cheats?"

 

[MC3OZ]

In terms of the oil price, what was interesting to me is OPEC and Russia held talks on reducing production, and Russia would not agree to this for fear of losing market share to American Shale Oil.

At relatively low levels of EV adoption, price and volumes are already a highly sensitive issue....

If the price of oil drops much further, Shale Oil and Tar Sands are most at risk of becoming nonviable, followed by offshore.

Factoring this into the impact on Tesla there may be short term political pressure applied to try to support the US oil industry, but once the US oil industry is largely gone then there is likely to be political support for Tesla as a US company as opposed to importing oil from OPEC, Russia, or some other foreign country we don't like.

With reference to my post above, if lots of car makers step up their EV efforts after Investor Day it is very hard to see how political interference can do much to support oil in the US and in most importing countries...

So Investor Day might also be very significant for the Oil Industry, and any hint of a closing market reduces the chances of quotas and price support. it is every producer for themselves...

 

[JustMe]

TESLA recently opened up solar roof orders across the US. There’s something odd with their order page: Order your Solar Roof

You’re asked for the square footage of your house, # of stories, & avg electric bill. The page then tells you the size of the system you need and it’s cost and you 25 year “expected savings” based on total KWh produced x avg cost/KWh of power

I get different answers depending on which state I choose - using the same house parameters:

2700 square feet, 2 story, $150/month

California 6.2 kw. $27,000
Maine. 7.7 kw. $31,000
Alaska. 8.1 kw. $32,000
Texas. 10.2 kw $36,000
Florida. 10.2. $36,000

This doesn’t make any sense, obviously. And there is no “contact us” info on the page to ask about this or other quirks. The FAQ is scant.

But there is a link for a $100 non-refundable order fee.

Maybe Tesla has a good product here. Maybe it can even save you a few bucks over a couple of decades. But their marketing and customer engagement here is a weak effort.

 

[MC3OZ]

TESLA recently opened up solar roof orders across the US. There’s something odd with their order page: Order your Solar Roof

You’re asked for the square footage of your house, # of stories, & avg electric bill. The page then tells you the size of the system you need and it’s cost and you 25 year “expected savings” based on total KWh produced x avg cost/KWh of power

I get different answers depending on which state I choose - using the same house parameters:

2700 square feet, 2 story, $150/month

California 6.2 kw. $27,000
Maine. 7.7 kw. $31,000
Alaska. 8.1 kw. $32,000
Texas. 10.2 kw $36,000
Florida. 10.2. $36,000

This doesn’t make any sense, obviously. And there is no “contact us” info on the page to ask about this or other quirks. The FAQ is scant.

But there is a link for a $100 non-refundable order fee.

Maybe Tesla has a good product here. Maybe it can even save you a few bucks over a couple of decades. But their marketing and customer engagement here is a weak effort.

What varies for each state is the solar resource, hours of sunlight, cloud cover and the local electricity rates....

I don't understand why such a big system is needed in Florida and Texas, but if rates are lower in those states $150 per month may mean more electrcity consumed?

I'm assuming $150 per month is your electrcity bill....

I may work better if your bill is representative of a real bill in that state for a house of that size.

 

[vikings123]

I have some 5/15 OTM calls. With all the panic I’m a little bit worried about next week, might dump them on the slightest uptick on Monday and buy back when people come back to their senses.

 

[kengchang]

TESLA recently opened up solar roof orders across the US. There’s something odd with their order page: Order your Solar Roof

You’re asked for the square footage of your house, # of stories, & avg electric bill. The page then tells you the size of the system you need and it’s cost and you 25 year “expected savings” based on total KWh produced x avg cost/KWh of power

I get different answers depending on which state I choose - using the same house parameters:

2700 square feet, 2 story, $150/month

California 6.2 kw. $27,000
Maine. 7.7 kw. $31,000
Alaska. 8.1 kw. $32,000
Texas. 10.2 kw $36,000
Florida. 10.2. $36,000

This doesn’t make any sense, obviously. And there is no “contact us” info on the page to ask about this or other quirks. The FAQ is scant.

But there is a link for a $100 non-refundable order fee.

Maybe Tesla has a good product here. Maybe it can even save you a few bucks over a couple of decades. But their marketing and customer engagement here is a weak effort.

See the map below, totally make sense.

 

[JustMe]

What varies for each state is the solar resource, hours of sunlight, cloud cover and the local electricity rates....

I don't understand why such a big system is needed in Florida and Texas, but if rates are lower in those states $150 per month may mean more electrcity consumed?

I'm assuming $150 per month is your electrcity bill....

I may work better if your bill is representative of a real bill in that state for a house of that size.

Yeah.. you’re right. The strangeness was due to the difference in electricity rates they assumed for each state. If you click on “estimated savings” you can see the rate they used. I re-ran the comparison with 1,000 kwh x assumed price/KWh to get the monthly power bill. The results are more sensible...

California 7.8 kw
Maine 8.2
Florida 8.4
Texas 8.8
Alaska 10.2

I don’t know why they don’t just ask you to put in your power usage and cost/kwh. It would be more accurate. It seems a bit oversimplified.

 

[dc_h]

GM is building a cell factory in Lordstown OH that is a 50/50 joint venture with LG Chem that will break ground this year and is expected to be ramped up to 30+ GWh by 2025 and contains a proprietary Chemistry to GM according to GM CEO Barra.

It’s all good! Same as the Porsche and Audi mit makes the EV revolution more real to more people and once a comparison is made, it makes Tesla, the clear leader. The pricing power leader and the cost leader in the same brand, that’s power.

 

[StealthP3D]

TESLA recently opened up solar roof orders across the US. There’s something odd with their order page: Order your Solar Roof

You’re asked for the square footage of your house, # of stories, & avg electric bill. The page then tells you the size of the system you need and it’s cost and you 25 year “expected savings” based on total KWh produced x avg cost/KWh of power

I get different answers depending on which state I choose - using the same house parameters:

Maybe Tesla has a good product here. Maybe it can even save you a few bucks over a couple of decades. But their marketing and customer engagement here is a weak effort.

It looks like Tesla has decided to market its solar roof ala Apple products interface, ie. over-simplify everything. Take everything extraneous away and let the consumer focus on the basic numbers the AVERAGE install will achieve. They don't even account for houses with different sq. footages between floors or different roof pitches (they just assume the sq. footage of your house is evenly divided between the floors and the roof pitch is average). This prevents potential purchasers from getting lost in the details and simplifies the buying process. It's not how I do things but it seems the world has changed since I was born. Don't sweat the details, as Nike would say "Just do it".

But you really can't bid a job without knowing a lot more about the site specifics (on at least 30% of all houses). I imagine if it's going to cost more Tesla would refund your "non-refundable" $100 if you decline once they adjust the price to suit more difficult/expensive installs. It certainly leaves more questions than answers and Tesla will probably refine the buying process as they go forward and gain experience. The one thing that might make this style work is that I think most consumers understand Tesla is not out to rip you off or pad the bill like many contractors who want to improve their own standard of living might be tempted to do. A certain amount of trust is needed for anyone to click the "buy" button (even if it is only $100). I'm sure the actual contract will be much more detailed once they have a site visit. Or do you think they will just ask for photos and have you fill out a more detailed questionnaire about the site specifics?

 

[wipster]

What varies for each state is the solar resource, hours of sunlight, cloud cover and the local electricity rates....

I don't understand why such a big system is needed in Florida and Texas, but if rates are lower in those states $150 per month may mean more electrcity consumed?

I'm assuming $150 per month is your electrcity bill....

I may work better if your bill is representative of a real bill in that state for a house of that size.

I would think zipcode would be more appropriate than State as rates and weather can vary significantly across a state, mine of WA in particular.

 

[FrankSG]

I can't wait for the day when the analysts realize this.

A couple days ago, there was an AMA in r/denmark, with a taxa-driver in Copenhagen. He's driving a model 3, and his company has ordered 50 more, as well as other electric cars (bit unclear on that). He went into details on how much they saved every day compared to the usual mercedes and other cars the taxa-drivers are using. It wasn't a small amount, and repair costs was not included.

It's only a matter of time until everybody realize this. That said, I'm pretty sure the analysts will be the very last group to get it.

Now imagine what happens when these companies electrify their entire fleet and notice that not just EVs are cheaper to operate than ICEVs, but also that Teslas are cheaper to operate than non-Tesla EVs, because Teslas are the most efficient EVs, and will soon benefit from cheaper (Tesla) insurance too.

Smart taxi companies will start using Teslas exclusively, because it's the best for their bottom line.

 

[wipster]

Now imagine what happens when these companies electrify their entire fleet and notice the same that not just EVs are cheaper to operate than ICEVs, but also that Teslas are cheaper to operate than non-Tesla EVs, because Teslas are the most efficient EVs, and will soon benefit from cheaper (Tesla) insurance too.

Smart taxi companies will start using Teslas exclusively, because it's the best for their bottom line.

Plus all the employees of those companies that are now driving those vehicles. I think I might negotiate a company Tesla in my employment agreement if I were still in the workworld!

 

[Freder Reeve]

OT - Commercial Resupply Services mission live:

 

[SMAlset]

Kind of to answer the questions on Solar/PW battery backup. We’re in wildfire PG&E safety shut down area (encompasses many counties) and plunked down our $100 deposit for our solar panel and Powerwall order. Have other neighbors who have had Tesla installs, one just recently we visited, plus read posts on TMC’s Energy area. We hope to have the panels installed this month and PWs won’t get done until fall (due to huge demand here — PG&E announced likely 10 years of forced blackouts due to fire conditions and high winds until areas can be isolated and equipment and overhead lines buried).

Anyway our assigned Energy contact has been super knowledgeable. They use high rez overhead photos for a proposed layout of our solar panels (med system, 24 panels) and we’re purchasing 2 PW. We provided photos including of our main panel and breakers and also our utility bill showing our annual usage. We discussed what appliances we wanted to run off the PWs. We had discussions about how install would happen, how the conduit could be run among other things. All very professional. Early on they came back with a proposal including what equipment would be provided, we asked for a revision on the roof layout. We provided photos of our garage walls as we wanted the PWs and majority of equipment installed inside. At some point we signed our contract after nailing down all the details. 1/2 due at start of project and balance at completion. They went to the city and obtained our permit. We are awaiting scheduling.

This is all new to us and we’ll have a lot to learn down the road about using the equipment but have been impressed so far with the process. Was a bit unusual planning this install without having anyone out to the house yet. There is a lot that goes into planning all this on their part and the $100 goes towards the time they put in to do the roof layout and initial proposal. The installations we’ve seen have been done very cleanly. In our area getting solar and PW battery back up is really popular and our city is fast tracking applications. Tesla is training more staff. They really are growing the Energy business this year.

 

[Beltsbear]

Is there much word about MIC model 3 deliveries in China? Are they continuing to deliver to customers? volumes?

 

[JustMe]

Kind of to answer the questions on Solar/PW battery backup. We’re in wildfire PG&E safety shut down area (encompasses many counties) and plunked down our $100 deposit for our solar panel and Powerwall order. Have other neighbors who have had Tesla installs, one just recently we visited, plus read posts on TMC’s Energy area. We hope to have the panels installed this month and PWs won’t get done until fall (due to huge demand here — PG&E announced likely 10 years of forced blackouts due to fire conditions and high winds until areas can be isolated and equipment and overhead lines buried).

Anyway our assigned Energy contact has been super knowledgeable. They use high rez overhead photos for a proposed layout of our solar panels (med system, 24 panels) and we’re purchasing 2 PW. We provided photos including of our main panel and breakers and also our utility bill showing our annual usage. We discussed what appliances we wanted to run off the PWs. We had discussions about how install would happen, how the conduit could be run among other things. All very professional. Early on they came back with a proposal including what equipment would be provided, we asked for a revision on the roof layout. We provided photos of our garage walls as we wanted the PWs and majority of equipment installed inside. At some point we signed our contract after nailing down all the details. 1/2 due at start of project and balance at completion. They went to the city and obtained our permit. We are awaiting scheduling.

This is all new to us and we’ll have a lot to learn down the road about using the equipment but have been impressed so far with the process. Was a bit unusual planning this install without having anyone out to the house yet. There is a lot that goes into planning all this on their part and the $100 goes towards the time they put in to do the roof layout and initial proposal. The installations we’ve seen have been done very cleanly. In our area getting solar and PW battery back up is really popular and our city is fast tracking applications. Tesla is training more staff. They really are growing the Energy business this year.

Well that all sounds good and reasonable, but none of that information is on their solar roof order page. There isn’t even any mention of power walls on the page at the moment (?!). Or “next steps..” or “here’s what your $100 will pay for”

But I suspect Tesla has more customers than they can handle at the moment anyway.

 

[SMAlset]

Well that all sounds good and reasonable, but none of that information is on their solar roof order page. There isn’t even any mention of power walls on the page at the moment (?!). Or “next steps..” or “here’s what your $100 will pay for”

But I suspect Tesla has more customers than they can handle at the moment anyway.

It is there. At one point they had a combo deal discount which got fully subscribed and they did separate the panels from the PW at that point (our neighbor had his PW only order from October installed just a few weeks ago—already had solar). PW is a very popular product. I hadn’t really thought about it but people in a number of states experience power outages some lasting days or even weeks be it from storms or what have you so buy it for that situation while being green at the same time.

Here’s the page for the PowerWalls:
Tesla Powerwall
they know people will have questions so really I think prefer interested people to arrange a phone call. No different really than many other solar installation companies. Our Tesla Store in Santana Row was our first point of contact back in January where we asked some basic questions and decided to put our $100 deposit down. The $100 kind of weeds out less serious inquiries and I’d say to get to your initial proposal it’s money well spent. Honestly it’s a lot of info to absorb and a web page isn’t best to answer questions just create enough interest to contact them further. As you proceed through the process there is a similar checklist to when you buy a car that let’s you know what step you’re in. We’ve been in contact with our Tesla Energy associate a few times along the way.

I do expect to see their solar business take off this year. Some people here are also among the first installs of Tesla’s solar roof so that’s happening too.

 

[Fact Checking]

Is there much word about MIC model 3 deliveries in China? Are they continuing to deliver to customers? volumes?

Yes, Chinese Twitter sources reported that GF3 deliveries resumed after Tesla updated the official list of components and clarified that all MIC owners who buy FSD get the HW3 upgrade for free.

 

[Fact Checking]

Yeah.. you’re right. The strangeness was due to the difference in electricity rates they assumed for each state. If you click on “estimated savings” you can see the rate they used. I re-ran the comparison with 1,000 kwh x assumed price/KWh to get the monthly power bill. The results are more sensible...

California 7.8 kw
Maine 8.2
Florida 8.4
Texas 8.8
Alaska 10.2

I don’t know why they don’t just ask you to put in your power usage and cost/kwh. It would be more accurate. It seems a bit oversimplified.

Many utility bills are misleading about the kWh costs (they are displaying net or partial kWh costs) or are at least overly complicated - while most people know their average monthly electricity bill, especially if they think it's too high.

I'm in the market for home improvements all the time. When I first tried the Solar Roof calculator it was refreshing how quickly they displayed an approximate price quote. Most installers make you jump through hoops before they say anything about the price.

While the typical "every home is special" excuse is technically true it's also a lie, they try to talk prices as late as possible because they know that the upfront price is often the #1 barrier, and they want personal contact details to try to get the sale.

IMO it's also obvious from the lack of details that the Tesla price is super approximate, and this is prominently warned about. I'd say the vast majority of customers shopping for home improvements will know and expect this, and $100 buys a guarantee that they'll take the order seriously. I paid a lot more just for professional planning of home improvements.

 

[Bet TSLA]

So easy being wrong:
Stop - Futility Closet