Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

That Company day

Company Day = Battery + Drive-train + Solar + Where to buy Cybershoes Day...

 

[azaz]

Does anyone know how long after meeting criteria does the S&P sit down and induct a new company? Maybe @Fact Checking might know?

 

[Cosmacelf]

It wasn’t just Elon. The founding CEO, Martin Eberhard, was actively researching franchise laws and dealership business models and they were decided on the sell/service direct model while he was still CEO.

Elon Musk has a healthy reality distortion field but an even more robust history distortion field. Resist falling under that spell.

My bad, you're right according to Ashlee Vance. I just re-read that portion of his book. Eberhard made that decision very early on. As lead investor and Chairman of the Board (and way too involved), Elon had to sign off on that strategic decision, but it was indeed Eberhard who came up with it.

 

[sparcs]

Does anyone know how long after meeting criteria does the S&P sit down and induct a new company? Maybe @Fact Checking might know?

discussed here: Shall TSLA be added to S&P500? (out of main)

 

[Remus]

IMHO, Ark Invest, Gali and similar commenters all seem to build their TSLA $7,000 thesis on autonomous related services. It seems to me, that the whole of Tesla's future growth and ability to fulfill its stated goal, is based on its ability to accelerate power storage capacity (Battery) production into the multiple terawatt territory. All of the other stories hang on this thread. Tesla Semi production has been pushed back for lack of capacity as stated during the Q4 call. Every other manufacturer/wanna be are starved of storage and while Solar roof closes the cosmetic issues associated with rooftop, PV and wind only work as a solution in combination with robust storage capacity. At the power wall roll out Elon talked about how much storage/renewable power it would take to power the world and he does so continuously always subtly, but always addressed.

We as investors, desperately need to insert ourselves into "Tesla April Company Talk" whether it's by portion questions (Think "SAY") to a known attendee or one of us attending otherwise we're stuck with the mostly ridiculously uninformed questions of a bunch of automotive analysts! In any case, IMO the trillion dollar value, much less "mission accomplished" ain't goin anywhere with out the power storage manufacturing capacity. This is what we need to know. The path to Terawatts of power storage. If that is clearly teased out of company talk day, IMO, alpha launch will be unstoppable.

Elon has stated over and over again that TE is where there is at least... at least, the FULL value of automotive. So many folks seem to be myopically focused on the autonomous mobility as the prime mover. IMO it is tangential to Tesla Energy which is the path to displacing the ENTIRE fossil fuel industry. Many words have been written here as to the immense daily net profits, never mind revenues, pulled in by this industry. Given a successful path to hundreds Terawatts per year, those kinds of revenues will belong to Tesla. Unlike the fossil fuel industry, Teslas costs are decreasing and even at lower margins, the scale of the commodity cells in combination with the high margin BMS/ distribution system will produce "gushers" of cash that will make ARAMCO look like a corner candy store business.

(and oh yea, we don't ruin the joint for ourselves and our offspring)

Fire Away!
(It's the batteries, Stupid!)

Can not agree more!

Tesla is the energy company that pushes the world to the post fossil fuel era.

 

[sundaymorning]

Looks like things are calming down a little in Asia.

Asia stocks mostly higher as investors watch virus developments; Softbank surges more than 12%

 

[sundaymorning]

2nd quarter could be a big month. Just speculating:

NASA says SpaceX is just a 'load' of paperwork away from launching its first astronauts. The target launch date is May 7.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Looks like things are calming down a little in Asia.

Asia stocks mostly higher as investors watch virus developments; Softbank surges more than 12%

Softbank's rise is because of Sprint/T-Mobile merger being effectively approved the day before. Softbank is actually one of the largest components of the Nikkei index so it's dragging all of Japan up, which is by extension dragging all of Asia up.

 

[UncaNed]

Our media is a joke. It will be dead in 10 years.

It's our civic duty to support our local newspapers and other publications with subscriptions and advertising. Part of me cringes a little whenever we discuss Tesla's lack of advertising. Not saying they should do otherwise...

On the nun issue- my knuckles are fine but I'm choking on the hypocrisy in that place 50 years later.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

So, I met with a tax advisor today. He recommended starting a private company and doing my stock trading within it, so that it can be done pretax. I think I'm going to take him up on the idea.

What do you think about the name "Grunnsamlegt Skúffufyrirtæki ehf" ("Suspicious Shell Corporation Inc.")?

Could we all just start a church of Elonology? Here in the states, all you need for near total religious tax exemption is a few forms and a church. If the talking-snake-book folks did it, why can't we?

‘Church of Elonology’ has a nice ring to it. Can I get first dibs on starting the branch in south Orange County? After all, at the rate at which our portfolios are appreciating, we will all need tax shelters soon!

Obviously it would be the Church of First Principles. And how's that for a name for Karen's shell company, First Principles Financial?

 

[JustMe]

Speaking of batteries, (has anyone else noticed that Elon pronounces it battries?) this is a nice article about “community” power storage in Australia: Tesla “community batteries” extended to more W.A. suburbs in shared storage trial | One Step Off The Grid

Between home powewall and utility/grid scale megapack. These moderate sized systems are being used to balance daily power loads for communities of high solar power adoption. Advantage for consumers is no big upfront cost and no long term contract.

Tesla is extending its tendrils into all sorts of business niches. It’s cool to see the creative ways that people are coming up with to take advantage of Teslas technology advances.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

My wild speculation is there is a 3% or perhaps slighter better, chance that Supercharger V3 contains a Maxwell battery in each stall.
The purpose of that auxiliary battery is to act as a buffer to speed up charging... it is more relevant when the station is close to full.
Cell lines at Fremont would be for Plaid Model S/X which is expected by the end of the year...
Note: Even I don't assign a high probability to this guess, but it is a guess that stacks up on a few levels.

The main problem with the guess is the April timeline Supercharger V3 has been production has been in full swing for sometime.
So the April is for some other reason, perhaps ....

Why split up an expensive resource between stalls, when it makes more sense to have one big high capacity (both in terms of discharge rate and buffering capacity) capable battery for the whole installation? That way you always maximize the utilization of the system. In fact, adding batteries to assist with reducing demand charges has been specifically mentioned by Elon/Tesla at some point for V3 installations (though I'm not sure if any existing ones have them yet)

 

[RobStark]

American's dream vehicle for 2020 is a Ford, not a Tesla

Bernie Sander's Vermont and Joe Biden's Delaware love Rivian R1T

Weirdly Idaho loves Ford Mach-E

Again, Nevada no love for Tesla

Biggest EV market in USA hearts Model Y.

 

[Green46]

Anyone worried about Q1 by any chance? Lack of federal tax credit, 1 week delay on Shanghai factory, etc.? Just curious to get perspective for short term Q1 as I have $ ready to be deployed, but trying to figure out if it makes sense to wait until after Q1 and before Investor / battery day in April...

I can only hope it falls a lot more than it should. Sales season again!

 

[BioSehnsucht]

View attachment 510382


American's dream vehicle for 2020 is a Ford, not a Tesla

Bernie Sander's Vermont and Joe Biden's Delaware love Rivian R1T

Weirdly Idaho loves Ford Mach-E

Again, Nevada no love for Tesla

Biggest EV market in USA hearts Model Y.

I didn't even realize Ford had a new Bronco.

 

[lascavarian]

After-Hours somebody executed a trade at $313.50 at 18:04:08 (why would they?), possibly a fat-fingered trading entry.

so I am at my broker Tuesday moving some things around and there is a disgruntled customer discussion happening in a nearby conference room with the door open. Suddenly I hear Tesla mentioned and my ears perk up. Customer is complaining about a trade in TSLA that did not happen at the price it should have which he seemed to think was the brokers issue. I was wondering how they would resolve it. Maybe something like that?

 

[FrankSG]

View attachment 510382

American's dream vehicle for 2020 is a Ford, not a Tesla

Bernie Sander's Vermont and Joe Biden's Delaware love Rivian R1T

Weirdly Idaho loves Ford Mach-E

Again, Nevada no love for Tesla

Biggest EV market in USA hearts Model Y.

Good luck getting the Mach-E in 2020. Probably gonna slip to 2021 due to software issues, battery supply issues, manufacturing issues, or something else.

I'd also be surprised to see the Rivian R1T launch without hiccups by the end of 2020.

Heck, at the rate things have been going recently, I'd say 2020 will be a successful year for traditional auto if they finally manage to produce deliver the Taycan and ID.3 in volume.

 

[RobStark]

I didn't even realize Ford had a new Bronco.

If Angelina Jolie insisted on moving to Colorado after our marriage I would get a Bollinger instead.

 

[RobStark]

Good luck getting the Mach-E in 2020. Probably gonna slip to 2021 due to software issues, battery supply issues, manufacturing issues, or something else.

I'd also be surprised to see the Rivian R1T launch without hiccups by the end of 2020.

Heck, at the rate things have been going recently, I'd say 2020 is a successful year for traditional auto if they finally manage to produce the Taycan and ID.3 in volume.

I wager Mach-E and R1T launch at least as well as Model 3.

Deliveries of at least a dozen vehicles by Dec 31,2020.

 

[davecolene0606]

View attachment 510382


American's dream vehicle for 2020 is a Ford, not a Tesla

Bernie Sander's Vermont and Joe Biden's Delaware love Rivian R1T

Weirdly Idaho loves Ford Mach-E

Again, Nevada no love for Tesla

Biggest EV market in USA hearts Model Y.

population density matters.

Fire Away!
(It’s the batteries, Stupid!)