Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[azaz]

I like incorporating solar in to the battery day. The first autonomy investors day was about getting investors to see the value in a part of the company that management felt was undervalued. I think we'd all agree that Tesla's solar and battery potential is undervalued so makes sense to hold an investors day for that as well.

also analysts all basically view Giga NY as a flop so holding it there and showing it running well would move the stock price imo

 

[Chocochip]

In reality, the unit [Wh/km] is a consumption. Since the unit is an energy per distance, it is basically a force (which could be provided in Newton).

It is in fact the driving force that is required to balance out the friction losses and maintain a constant speed, at the value given on the X-axis. So consumption (or driving force for the purist). An efficiency would typically be a unit-less number in the range from zero to one.

You're technically right, of course. Still, this reply would typically be met with a "You must be fun at parties!" type quip. However, out of respect for my fellow TSLA investor, I won't mention it!

 

[dl003]

But is Diess the right guy for Tesla? It’s not like great EV things have been achieved at VW with him at the helm. See ID.3 software issues, see E-Tron and Taycan range issues. It may not be his fault, but neither could he prevent them. So does he have the right managerial skills?

And important too: will he be able to work under Elon? Several high profile people from big OEMs were hired by Tesla. Only to fail and leave after a short period of time. It’s a different culture. Tesla has since switched to promoting talent from within. Hiring Diess would be a step back.

Right. Maybe a VP of PR. Otherwise, may do more harms than goods.

 

[lklundin]

(is it technically Giga Buffalo?)

I strongly dislike this naming scheme. Whenever I see the place name of GF2, I have to parse in my mind the sentence consisting of that word repeated five times...

Oh no, my mind is exploding, after I realized how the sentence can comprise even more instances of that word. :-(

 

[Foghat]

Tesla accelerated growth strategy:

Watch the majors invest billions in cell/battery factories, then buy up the factories/usable assets at rock bottom prices when they go bankrupt due to inability make money outside of ICE.

Have them invest in your capacity without them even knowing it.

Fate loves irony too much sometimes.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Is there anything significant about the $760 price level? We seem to be gravitating around there.

I will say that this morning's action did close the gap up from Friday trading. Between the price action on Thursday, Friday, and possibly today (if we end above the $750 price), we could be consolidating / reaffirming support in this area, which could help propel further upward movement. This also assumes no significant macro developments (looking at you Chinese economy / coronavirus).

At least that's my amateur take.

 

[lklundin]

A coup it definitely is. If Diess is to be the "fall guy' replacing him with Oliver Blum accomplishes nothing. Both are VAG 'lifers' and have shared responsibilities along the way enough that neither has the ability to change corporate practice because neither has known anything else.

It is acceptable in this thread to solicit practical advice on how to short sell certain auto makers?

Let's say for example that I wanted to increase my number of TSLA shares by 20% (maybe by exercising some ITM call options), but I have little cash to spend.
So instead I short sell a car maker that I think has really poor mid- and long term prospects and buy TSLA for the proceeds. How would the borrow rate compare to just buying on margin?

Many unorthodox, yet interesting questions. If these are deemed OT, I guess can always pose as a TSLA short seller on Twitter, there must be an enormous body of short-selling knowledge over there.

 

[SteveG3]

I like incorporating solar in to the battery day. The first autonomy investors day was about getting investors to see the value in a part of the company that management felt was undervalued. I think we'd all agree that Tesla's solar and battery potential is undervalued so makes sense to hold an investors day for that as well.

also analysts all basically view Giga NY as a flop so holding it there and showing it running well would move the stock price imo

what’s more, Elon is the only party being sued over Tesla’s acquisition of Solar City who has not settled. Elon may be thinking of an upcoming court date and the court of public opinion

 

[rsm287]

Is there anything significant about the $760 price level? We seem to be gravitating around there.

I was getting a strange feeling that it was being capped around that level, but I don't have any specific evidence of this.

 

[dww12]

Could Trump become our useful idiot and get him to switch from ”saving coal” to going solar by using the moon as leverage?

I realize he only operates on $$ kickbacks but could the moon be his kickback? Elon’s doing that anyway.

Get Ready for a Moonstruck Donald Trump-Elon Musk Bromance

 

[StealthP3D]

I will say that this morning's action did close the gap up from Friday trading.

Since Friday's high was $795.83, any gap on open was filled in the first minute when it ran down to $788.

 

[SageBrush]

I was getting a strange feeling that it was being capped around that level, but I don't have any specific evidence of this.

My WAG is that a stable-ish SP (and not just a draw) would have low volume stock activity.

 

[Unpilot]

Could Trump become our useful idiot and get him to switch from ”saving coal” to going solar by using the moon as leverage?

I realize he only operates on $$ kickbacks but could the moon be his kickback? Elon’s doing that anyway.

Get Ready for a Moonstruck Donald Trump-Elon Musk Bromance

Sigh...I made the mistake of reading the comments to that article.

 

[SOULPEDL]

OT... (OK maybe a little having to do with Model 3 depreciation at 5% - and maybe negative someday?)

We were considering an upgrade of our LR RWD "early" Model 3. Does anyone think these will be collector cars someday? It's got the orange glass roof and stuff. Or should I hang on to the exceptional eMPG of this model? I would imagine the first Roadsters will be collectors if not already. Anyone know?

But an air ride coming did I read here? This model keeps getting better in leaps. Maybe I should wait for a possible 400 mi version next year? Decisions...

Oh, and guess what day it is... It's my 59-1/2 Birthday today!
I smell something burning...

 

[hershey101]

It is acceptable in this thread to solicit practical advice on how to short sell certain auto makers?

Let's say for example that I wanted to increase my number of TSLA shares by 20% (maybe by exercising some ITM call options), but I have little cash to spend.
So instead I short sell a car maker that I think has really poor mid- and long term prospects and buy TSLA for the proceeds. How would the borrow rate compare to just buying on margin?

Many unorthodox, yet interesting questions. If these are deemed OT, I guess can always pose as a TSLA short seller on Twitter, there must be an enormous body of short-selling knowledge over there.

I'm not sure about the borrowing rates, it would depend on the stock you are shorting and the cost to borrow said stock, but if it's a heavily shorted stock, I would expect the borrow rate to be higher than margin.

Also please, please, please, don't do this unless you really know what you are doing. Your investment thesis may be correct over the long run (1+ years), but any minor market fluction will hit you with margin calls.. Esp. if you are thinking of shorting GM/F etc. These companies have been hammered a lot, a single quarter of even halfway decent results and the stocks will spike, leaving you with unlimited downside. Combine that with a short-term sentiment change in TSLA, and you are in the hole on both ends of the trade. Most likely your broker will liquidate your positions before you do any serious harm to your bank account, but this is a receipe for disaster.

If you want to leverage up on TSLA, sell some of your shares and buy ATM/OTM LEAPS... Or put on spreads (like I did today for $810/$825 weeklies for essentially free). This is a much more sound strategy from a risk management perspective.

 

[bhtooefr]

Also, shorting the legacy automakers is incredibly expensive due to dividends.

Selling calls on them wouldn't do that, but selling naked calls is one way to utterly screw yourself if they have a good quarter...

 

[SageBrush]

I admit, a future 350 mile Model Y AWD sounds awfully tempting. If can keep depreciation below 20% I'll probably swap. And if not, my Model 3 LR is shaping up to be a fine long term car for us.

 

[Nocturnal]

To those who are accredited investors, how did you get it done?

Tesla accelerated growth strategy:

Watch the majors invest billions in cell/battery factories, then buy up the factories/usable assets at rock bottom prices when they go bankrupt due to inability make money outside of ICE.

Have them invest in your capacity without them even knowing it.

Fate loves irony too much sometimes.

I can't figure out how they will handle the dealership model.

 

[Dylan]

Also, shorting the legacy automakers is incredibly expensive due to dividends.

Selling calls on them wouldn't do that, but selling naked calls is one way to utterly screw yourself if they have a good quarter...

I’d buy puts if I could but not sure where? Are there any?

 

[StealthP3D]

To those who are accredited investors, how did you get it done?

Getting "accredited" investor status is specific to each entity you do business with. You basically just attest to the fact that you meet the criteria. Basically, you have over $1 million in net worth (not counting your residence). It's an out-dated standard with respect to who it was originally intended to protect (the middle class).

Personally, I would like to see the rules changed to basically let anyone be accredited once they could show basic financial competence (that they knew what they were doing). While it does let you invest in more risky assets, it's not really something to necessarily strive for.