Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

We have the exact same objective. All I'm trying to do is accumulate as many shares as I can, while not taking on any crazy risks.

All of the long term option plays I make, I've calculated potential pay offs in # of shares, rather than in $ gained.

Therefore, I expect to sell my Jan'22 $500s around the time we hit $1,000 or $1,100 per share, and buy shares with the proceeds.

I think there's way more money to be made by holding onto them longer, but even if stock is $2,000 upon expiration, that'd only translate into less than 20% upside in terms of how many extra shares I'll be able to convert them into.

At $1,000 tomorrow or next week, those options will likely trade for ~$600 each, and can be converted into ~60 shares each. At $2,000 upon expiration, they would be worth $1,500 each (2.5x), but can only be converted into 75 shares, which is less than 20% upside.

So I plan to exchange those for shares around $1,000-$1,100, and then if there is another dip, recession, Q1 turns out to be a disaster, or something of that nature, I could leverage up a bit again through different options.

Thanks for this post and appreciate your detail. I fear I am not quite following your logic. Have you calculated the exact price the option would need to reach to be an exact conversion to the underlying 100 shares at $500? Long term gains may be a consideration in some taxing authorities but is another issue.

I think when you are saying "20% upside" that I get confused. 75 shares?

Are you saying that beyond a certain price the conversion limitation of 100 shares at the strike price being the limit of the number of shares that can be captured in some way influences your value decision of holding the option longer?

 

[kbM3]

Has it dawned on everyone that Elon is cornering the brains market?

Silicon Valley
Shanghai
Berlin
Austin
I’d place bets on
Giga Raleigh-Durham - In addition to Research Park, it’s perfectly geographically located for East Coast

 

[RobStark]

True, but the bus manufacturers don't want to invest in a new body style. Also, more windows equal more heat in the buses which are already way too hot.

Pure BEV Bus manufactures, BYD and Proterra, seem to handle the heat inside just fine.

It is again the problem of legacy OEM wanting to stuff batteries in ICEv.

 

[MP3Mike]

I would think Tesla would consider this a serious void of warranty if they are directly accessing the traction battery. Very unlikely IMO. I suspect the article is incorrect and confusing things. Seems to me accessing an existing accessory circuit would be sufficient. The DC to DC supply in almost any EV should be more than capable of supporting some LED lights and low power radios. The reason they do not need a second 12v battery is related to a weakness in ICE vehicles that does not exist in EVs. This is all my read of it so YMMV.

Well Tesla was helping with the modifications, so anything done was done with their approval. If they tapped into the existing 12v supply the big problem would be keeping the car "on" so that the DC-DC converter continued to supply their accessories and not cycle the small 12v battery continuously. It would be interesting to know exactly what they did.

I thought the mention of not being able to integrate into the MCU yet was interesting, as I'm pretty sure that I have seen that Tesla has helped with that on the Model S/X already for one police department.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Was NOT expecting that at open. That was a nice surprise!

I think MM wants the price at 750. This might be a boring day for ticker-watchers.

 

[UncaNed]

I want to follow up on this because I recieved some DMs thanking me and suggesting they will take my future advice. Take anything a post with a massive grain of skepticism. I am an average Joe with some good life experience and interesting perspectives. I was also tossing and turning in bed about the Corona virus and this week was giving me serious anxiety. I'm happy with the results, and nobody should EVER be considered an ultimate source of truth. I'll still be cruising the options chain for sub 1 dollar contracts that make sense to me because that's been a trading strat that's worked well for me on Tesla and Nvidia but by no means do I know anything about ~investing~ trading. I may be getting some leap puts on Uber, Lyft or some traditional car companies but trust me when I say this, I know absolutely nothing about trading other than the fact that I have done ok taking a step back and looking at the big picture waaaaaaaay out and trying to win off of that. It blows my mind how well some people can anticipate next weeks stock price moves, and I am ABSOLUTELY NOT the person to look to for that kind of thing. I do hope to continue contrubuting to this forum tho because you all rock.

Anyone who notices such a bargain in the options chain and notifies me is a hero in my book. Wish I'd taken advantage of it in a huge way.

 

[JRP3]

Yesterday, for first time saw a Toronto Transit Commission Electric Bus in service. The World is going electric. No doubt about it.

Looks like a Proterra.

 

[Chocochip]

I can't wait for Bjorn to get his hands on a Taycan to perform his standard battery of tests that can be compared against all the other EVs.

So easy to mis-read the emphasised bit... my brain went with "standard battery test", and I was left wondering if the ToyCan also has an SR version...

 

[Unpilot]

I think MM wants the price at 750. This might be a boring day for ticker-watchers.

Sorry but TSLA is never boring...hell there has been a 50 dollar swing already!

 

[rsm287]

I think MM wants the price at 750. This might be a boring day for ticker-watchers.

I thought max pain was at around 730?

 

[woodisgood]

I thought max pain was at around 730?

Overall, but each MM is going to have their own maxpain based on the contracts they've doled out. Then they duke it out to see whose maxpain wins.

 

[StealthP3D]

Brand Finance values Tesla's brand at 12.4B. I think this is way too low.

True, if the Trump brand is worth $10 billion then the Tesla brand has to be worth around 13 times as much which would put it at ~$130 billion.

Wait, that's the TSLA's market cap. So I guess you pay for only the value of the brand name but get the company for free!

 

[Fobble]

Was NOT expecting that at open. That was a nice surprise!

Yo-yo between red and green like dozens of times in the first 15 mins. Fighting is still raging. Proud of those at the front line

 

[AudubonB]

Has it dawned on everyone that Elon is cornering the brains market?

Silicon Valley
Shanghai
Berlin
Austin
I’d place bets on
Giga Raleigh-Durham - In addition to Research Park, it’s perfectly geographically located for East Coast

You left out Paxson. Or maybe Mr Musk did

 

[JRP3]

Pure BEV Bus manufactures, BYD and Proterra, seem to handle the heat inside just fine.

Rear corner of the bus says ..erra, I'm assuming it's a Proterra.

 

[LJS22]

Has anyone managed to decipher this tweet from Elon:

Elon Musk on Twitter

I think he admitted to being drunk after that string of tweets. Something like “last nights tweets...sigh”

 

[Artful Dodger]

Short strawberry stocks?

Dude! It's "Strawberry Short Stockings". Obviously.

Spoiler: NSFW

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

Anyone who notices such a bargain in the options chain and notifies me is a hero in my book. Wish I'd taken advantage of it in a huge way.

I did notify everyone mid-December that possibly all options chains are mispriced (IV of higher strikes was still very low):

Typically not near all-time-highs - only if you are confident that TSLA will rise significantly despite being near an ATH, or you are confident about near-term positive surprises such as Q4 deliveries, Q4 earnings, FSD progress, GF3 progress, Q1 deliveries/earnings or S&P 500 inclusion.

In that case all the long term out-of-the-money call options are mispriced, Black-Scholes and all the other options pricing formulas are essentially bogus for a company with so many potential positive and negative events. Q4'2018 was very optimistic and Q1'2019 destroyed a lot of options portfolios.

Not advice, obviously.

Provided you were aware of the standard disclaimer that the "bargain" might have turned out to be a 100% loss.

 

[Fobble]

Dude! It's "Strawberry Short Stockings". Obviously.

Cheers!

You are waking up FCC, and getting Elon into trouble

 

[kalefranz]

I think MM wants the price at 750. This might be a boring day for ticker-watchers.

I can finally get some work done.