Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

The numbers in that chart are current capacities. I'm more interested in long term capacities. I personally don't think the 150k M3 fom Shanghai is their long term capacity plan either.

They will probably stop at 150k m3, then add Y lines.

 

[Tenable]

Try 180; then 380 is no problemo

lol I’ve taken the long ride down to 180 a couple times now. 380 is far more likely now, but I’d prefer to avoid both scenarios. $1000 tomorrow would be much preferred

 

[EVNow]

2. We have a new line coming up in Fremont for the Model Y, no plans on scaling down 3 production.

Yes - the question has to be more specific. BTW, the answer you gave doesn't answer the first part of the question, only the second.

Tesla had indicated earlier that Fremont press and paint shop capacity is limited to 10k/wk. With the production of Model Y in Fremont, what is the designed and tooled maximum capacity for Model 3 + Y in Fremont by the end of 2020.

Also, what is the designed capacity of GF3 & GF4.
​

 

[FrankSG]

They will probably stop at 150k m3, then add Y lines.

During this year's shareholders' meeting there was an audience question about "Are we being aggressive enough in China?". Elon's response:

Long term I think that factory could do more than 500k. This is an interim goal. Maybe it does a million or more long term.

1:18:48

 

[Beltsbear]

They will probably stop at 150k m3, then add Y lines.

Each line 3/Y will initially do 150k cars with ability to go to 250k with not much spending so 500k a year total. Then more lines and capital to go to 1000k a year.

 

[EVNow]

They will probably stop at 150k m3, then add Y lines.

Yes. I think they will go to 3k/wk and start adding Y. At some point in future they may go to 10k/wk total 3 + Y.

Here is some interesting data.

Mercedes-Benz China auto sales figures

BMW in 2018 3L / total : 135k/465k
Audi 3+4 / Total : 250k / 620k
Merc C / Total : 150k / 500k

So, Model 3 can sell about 40k/quarter, if they sell in about the same volume as one of these 3. This would be similar to the numbers in US.

​

 

[kengchang]

Lots of movement at the factory

F19-0116 - Tesla Column Relocation at BIW3

Project Description:
F19-0116 - Installation of a new structural column at BIW3 conveyance line.

 

[Artful Dodger]

They will probably stop at 150k m3, then add Y lines.

Lol, you think the new line at GF3 is a less capable design than the existing 7k/wk line at Fremont? Its far more likely that the currently stated 150k/yr capacity for GF3 is just their initial production target, very likely achievable in 2020H2 or sooner if things go well (much depends upon GF3 bty pack assembly rampup, which commenced in December).

Model Y is getting its own assembly plant in parallel to the Model 3 (phase 1) plant. Both plants will likely have at least 5k/wk (250K/yr) capacity. And its also possible that 2nd lines will be built eventually inside each plant to bring their combined capacity to 1M/yr some time down the road once demand is established.

Cheers!

 

[PeterJA]

I love Dave, I miss seeing him around TMC. You may be surprised to hear I watched this video and all of his others prior to entering my position. ‍ Can’t cure crazy I suppose. Thank you for the kind suggestion though. I sincerely appreciate fellow investors on here trying to save me money. But given my positioning I’m ok with it. My worst case scenario is the stock somehow doesn’t move and all of my bullish short term spreads expire as well. But as long as we move up as we should, the cost of my puts going to zero will be negated by my calls.

PS to my earlier reply:

If you are traumatized by volatility, why are you gambling with options? (where volatility is magnified) Buy shares and hold. End of worries about volatility, provided you are not over-leveraged with margin loans.

 

[Paracelsus]

Your video screenshot reminded me of the good laugh I had during that presentation. I am hoping the Tesla PR crew has talked to the Tesla team about 'presentation body language' and microphone placement for all future presentations

 

[EVNow]

Lol, you think the new line at GF3 is a less capable design than the existing 7k/wk line at Fremont?

28/hr is supposed to be the designed capacity. This was the test that was done and we heard reports about.

This is about 560/day (2, 10 hr shifts), ~4k/wk or 50k/quarter.

We don't know what the exact limiting factor is - bodyline or paint shop or press etc or whether all of them have been designed for this capacity.

ps : The fact that Tesla has not released order numbers for either MIC 3 or Model Y tells me, the numbers are rather smallish. Unlike Model 3 or CT. So, its possible Tesla thought the initial demand might be 3k/wk and built it that way. The contract with Shanghai government specifies this number.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - Thursday:

 

[JustMe]

ps : The fact that Tesla has not released order numbers for either MIC 3 or Model Y tells me, the numbers are rather smallish. Unlike Model 3 or CT. So, its possible Tesla thought the initial demand might be 3k/wk and built it that way.

It might simply be that the Model Y and MIC Model 3 order rates are essentially in-line with Tesla’s expectations. And these are big numbers. I think it’s fair to say that the rate of orders for the Model 3 and the Cybertruck were well beyond what Tesla was expecting. As Tesla has not said much either way about the Model Y order rate, we are left to speculate.

one thing that we do know is that GF4 will begin with Model Y production and Tesla is working hard to get that factory built as fast as possible. I don’t see Tesla working so hard to build a huge new factory if they felt that demand for the product was weak.

So I’m leaning towards Model Y orders being biggish.

 

[MP3Mike]

The numbers in that chart are current capacities. I'm more interested in long term capacities. I personally don't think the 150k M3 fom Shanghai is their long term capacity plan either.

Hasn't Tesla/Elon pretty much already answered that? They will monitor and respond to demand.

I seem to recall that they said that they think that worldwide demand could be 750k for Model 3 and 1M for Model Y.

For Model 3 if Fremont is at 350k, GF3 at 150k, and GF4 at 150k, that puts you at 650k capacity. i.e. They don't expect to need much more capacity, but if they do see the demand they will build it where it is needed. (Maybe they will need to drop Fremont to 300k and up GF3 and GF4 to 250k.)

You can do the same kind of calculations for Model Y, though I would expect a more even capacity build-out, maybe 300k per factory, assuming enough local demand is shown.

 

[smorgasbord]

If Tesla thought they would need to cannibalize Model 3 production to build Model Y in Fremont they would have stuck to their original plan of building Model Y in Sparks.

I believe their current plan, which is already underway, is to combine the Model S and X lines into one and use the space freed up for a Model Y line. Thanks to GA4 for Model 3, Tesla now knows how to have a compact assembly line for the Model 3/Y class of vehicles, which have vastly fewer final assembly steps than either S/X or most ICE vehicles.

 

[StealthP3D]

The fact that Tesla has not released order numbers for either MIC 3 or Model Y tells me, the numbers are rather smallish. Unlike Model 3 or CT. So, its possible Tesla thought the initial demand might be 3k/wk and built it that way.

We don't know what the order numbers are and, frankly, I don't think they matter. Because Tesla will be able to sell all the Model Y's they can make. Demand for Tesla's is increasing and cannot be determined by order rates regardless.

The number of buyers who refuse to wait in an order queue is surprisingly high. Most new car buyers are not "line waiters" and they are not accustomed to buying cars at some indeterminate date in the future. Once the cars can be ordered and delivered in a week or two the number of potential customers expands many-fold.

In any case, I don't think you can divine that existing order numbers must be "smallish" simply because Tesla chose not to announce them. There are a number of valid reasons why it's not in Tesla's best interest to release the numbers and weak reservation numbers would be at the bottom of that list.

 

[Jack6591]

I fear that often my posts contain negative messaging. That I’m being far too quick to discount the arguments of those I perceive as denying science—of not opening my mind, and giving their treatise’ fair consideration.

Frequently I feel as though those with opposing viewpoints draw me into a warrior mindset; this mindset preventing me from communicating a positive and compelling narrative.

Elon Musk, Tesla employees, early adopters and the folks of this community have all advanced technologies that offer sound remedies for the challenge of climate change. These technologies are giving our children and grandchildren the promise of a healthy future. We are creating a brighter tomorrow.

The concrete accomplishments of this community are good, fine, and decent. Doing well while doing good is honorable. Our community should be very proud; we earned it.

JB Leonard

 

[TradingInvest]

It might simply be that the Model Y and MIC Model 3 order rates are essentially in-line with Tesla’s expectations. And these are big numbers. I think it’s fair to say that the rate of orders for the Model 3 and the Cybertruck were well beyond what Tesla was expecting. As Tesla has not said much either way about the Model Y order rate, we are left to speculate.

one thing that we do know is that GF4 will begin with Model Y production and Tesla is working hard to get that factory built as fast as possible. I don’t see Tesla working so hard to build a huge new factory if they felt that demand for the product was weak.

So I’m leaning towards Model Y orders being biggish.

I guess Model Y reservation number is not huge, because people don't need to reserve. They can just order when it's available. Elon is not worried about Y demand because Y is much more compelling than the 29 million gasoline SUV/CUVs sold every year. Tesla probably can take 1/5 of this market if buyers are well informed.

Cybertruck got large reservation number for several reasons. It's only $100, and it locks in the FSD price with no downside. I hope they don't publish this reservation number anymore, it might push up battery material price.

 

[powertoold]

I guess Model Y reservation number is not huge

Strongly disagree here, but ya, the model 3 reservation experience has likely dissuaded some

 

[Tim S]

ps : The fact that Tesla has not released order numbers for either MIC 3 or Model Y tells me, the numbers are rather smallish. Unlike Model 3 or CT. So, its possible Tesla thought the initial demand might be 3k/wk and built it that way. The contract with Shanghai government specifies this number.

There is nothing "smallish" about demand for MIC Model 3.