Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singer3000]

Tesla licensing power train/battery to other auto manufacturers... ugh no thanks. This only makes sense if Tesla has reached the ceiling of market penetration for its brand. Which it clearly hasn’t.

Galileo speculating that GF4 will be co-funded by a German auto in return for a share of the skateboard production. If Tesla’s capex needs are ahead of its cashflow generation, I’m ready to chip in for a secondary offering.

This could be a historic mistake for the company. Hope they don’t go there. Far better to just pickup the BMW badge etc... in a few years when they fail.

Licensing out the skateboard for now should be restricted to niche market segments that Tesla don’t have the time to pursue. City buses, trains, mining sector yellow goods. Not passenger vehicles...

 

[Artful Dodger]

TESLA MODEL S PLAID SPIED TESTING ON THE NURBURGRING

Some hot takes for the video:

• 1st ever vid of a Plaid S at full speed** down the Döttinger Höhe straight
• Anyone want to estimate the Plaid S top speed as demonstrated in this video?

Alrighty then, since nobody has stepped up with a estimate, I used Google Maps and my best guess for the end points of a segment of the back straight, measured at 1.29 km. Then in the Youtube video, that segment took 16 seconds for the Blue S Plaid Prototype.

Doing the math, that's approx. 295 kmh, or 180 mph. Yowsah. That'll work.

@SpaceCash

Spoiler: Take my MONEY!

 

[EinSV]

Tesla licensing power train/battery to other auto manufacturers... ugh no thanks. This only makes sense if Tesla has reached the ceiling of market penetration for its brand. Which it clearly hasn’t.

Galileo speculating that GF4 will be co-funded by a German auto in return for a share of the skateboard production. If Tesla’s capex needs are ahead of its cashflow generation, I’m ready to chip in for a secondary offering.

This could be a historic mistake for the company. Hope they don’t go there. Far better to just pickup the BMW badge etc... in a few years when they fail.

Licensing out the skateboard for now should be restricted to niche market segments that Tesla don’t have the time to pursue. City buses, trains, mining sector yellow goods. Not passenger vehicles...

Finding comfort in the idea that Tesla might sell skateboards to legacy auto is like finding comfort in the idea of Tesla being bought by Apple. Fundamentally misunderstands the dominant position Tesla enjoys in the new EV industry.

 

[SpaceCash]

Alrighty then, since nobody has stepped up with a estimate, I used Google Maps and my best guess for the end points of a segment of the back straight, measured at 1.29 km. Then in the Youtube video, that segment took 16 seconds for the Blue S Plaid Prototype.

Doing the math, that's approx. 295 kmh, or 180 mph. Yowsah. That'll work.

@SpaceCash

Spoiler: Take my MONEY!

View attachment 472301

I'm gonna be honest, this is actually "too much"
The spoiler, I mean.

 

[ElectricOrgan]

Batteries? They certainly won't be able to buy them cheaper than Tesla can make them, and they certainly won't have the same specs. If they're smart they would be begging Tesla to sell them their batteries but that wouldn't help in the short term since Tesla can barely make enough now to keep up with their own cars let alone provide enough for any significant ramp by another manufacturer. So they are forced to rely on inferior tech from other manufacturers that also can't make enough. There is no way out for them without spending HUGE amounts of money and then they STILL won't have the pack technology to compete with Tesla on price or specs. They have backed themselves into a corner they very well may not be able to get out of.

Dan

Absolutely none of that is really correct. At this moment in time, Tesla has the best battery technology available. But in just a few years that can easily change. There is no reason to believe Tesla can ramp up car production while major companies 20 times their size can't ramp up battery production.

The major auto makers will spend HUGE amounts of money on designing the best batteries because they CAN. They have the money and will spend it because they are realizing they can make good EVs or they can become the 21st century Kodak.

You also need to realize that a small difference in battery technology won't make such a large difference in sales. Cars are sold through marketing. Small differences in technology are easily mitigated.

 

[KarenRei]

Mike Godwin on Twitter

 

[sparcs]

Mike Godwin on Twitter

View attachment 472311

This Bertel guy has really lost his marbles. the whole twitter feed is insane. I'm amazed the media actually employed him in any capacity.

Did he go short Tesla with all his retirement funds or something? lol

 

[KarenRei]

Even the Megapacks and Powerpacks you refer to come complete with Tesla designed software: the battery mgmt system/software (BMS). It's a complete package.

The BMS not only is part of the battery pack, it's part of each module. There's a gigantic PCB attached to the cells which acts as the BMS.

Jack Rickard takes out Model 3 modules and repurposes them for energy storage purposes. If he can do it, without any help from Tesla, then any automaker contracting with Tesla easily can.

Will they make as good of a vehicle as Tesla with them? Of course not. But from Tesla's point of view, that's a feature, not a bug

So what is an alarming number?

Whatever the lawyer who wrote those words, specifically crafted to try to force an investigation on behalf of his clients, feels it is.

Finding comfort in the idea that Tesla might sell skateboards to legacy auto is like finding comfort in the idea of Tesla being bought by Apple. Fundamentally misunderstands the dominant position Tesla enjoys in the new EV industry.

I disagree. Tesla will never control 100% of the auto industry, or even close to that, because of people who actively dislike Tesla or actively like other brands. Becoming an OEM supplier to the others allows them to control a larger percentage of the market than they could on their own.

 

[KarenRei]

In this afternoon's WaPo:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/tech...fficials-probe-alleged-tesla-battery-defects/

"According to a letter last week, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is evaluating a petition to investigate potential defects in Tesla batteries, particularly those for Model S and X vehicles produced for model years 2012 through 2019.


An attorney filing a class-action lawsuit on behalf of Tesla owners brought the petition to the agency’s Office of Defects Investigation, citing an “alarming number of car fires” that appeared to be spontaneous."

BTW, this is still part of is DJRas's lawsuit, so you can thank him for this. :Þ He's once again using the NHTSA to force discovery in a private lawsuit.

The irony being that - if his claims are correct, and that the BMS update was to prevent fires - then Tesla behaved responsibly and fixed the problem that he's asking the NHTSA to investigate, and the NHTSA should find no fault. But that's of course irrelevant to the needs of his lawsuit - his lawsuit isn't about safety but about his lost range.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Absolutely none of that is really correct. At this moment in time, Tesla has the best battery technology available. But in just a few years that can easily change. There is no reason to believe Tesla can ramp up car production while major companies 20 times their size can't ramp up battery production.

The major auto makers will spend HUGE amounts of money on designing the best batteries because they CAN. They have the money and will spend it because they are realizing they can make good EVs or they can become the 21st century Kodak.

You also need to realize that a small difference in battery technology won't make such a large difference in sales. Cars are sold through marketing. Small differences in technology are easily mitigated.

A SMALL difference in battery technology? Really?
Yes, the big boys could ramp up battery production...if they were making batteries! If they dropped what they were doing right now and threw all their resources behind developing what they would need to have a large scaled lineup of BEVs it would still be at LEAST 2-3 years for it to come to fruition, probably more like 5-7. Where will Tesla be then? Model Y at full ramp. Pickup on the market. Semi being delivered. Roadster 2 out there killing all the exotics. Lord knows where their battery and pack technology will be by then. The legacy boys have dug themselves a hole that most will not be able to climb out of. But, we'll see I guess.

Don't get me wrong, I hope some can pull it off. Just means more BEV options for consumers. However, even if they can they will still be miles behind Tesla. Elon's genius was building the vertical integration needed to control all aspects of production. While everyone else was laughing at what an idiot he was, he was and is quietly building the network needed to put most of them out of business.

Dan

 

[electracity]

Sufficient battery cell supply is a big issue currently for Tesla as well as traditional automakers like VW hoping to ramp EVs to mass market numbers. But shortages of any manufactured part is never permanent. The market is remarkably efficient at meeting demand.

The only place Tesla can easily build factories is China. China simply won't allow Tesla to dominate their EV market. Tesla can only dominate the EV market in the next decade if the change away from ICE is slow. Tesla simply can't dominate the overall car market if the change to EV is fast.

 

[Maitri982]

Heltok:

What Tesla showed 3 years ago was a hack that didn't rely on neutral networks as much as they do now. Karpathy changed all this when he came on board.

I would love to be wrong....but FSD likely 2-5 years away still.

 

[ReflexFunds]

I don't have an objection to it in and of itself, especially as far as furthering Tesla's mission. But I do question whether Tesla will have sufficient spare capacity to provide EV powertrains to other OEMs.

But even more importantly, there is the question of design philosophy. Like Apple, Tesla products gain their strength from the tight integration of hardware and software, as well as tight hardware to hardware integration. The whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

Even the Megapacks and Powerpacks you refer to come complete with Tesla designed software: the battery mgmt system/software (BMS). It's a complete package.

But an EV powertrain on its own is not a complete product, just like a Powerpack without the Tesla BMS is not a complete product. If Tesla supplies EV powertrains to other OEMs, who supplies the BMS (and the motor control software)? The OEM or Tesla? If the OEM, will the OEM do a good of a job as Tesla? Are there things they will miss that could lead to less than optimal performance or, worse, compromise or malfunction? If Tesla instead provides the BMS, can they be certain it will work optimaly within the larger software layer of the OEMs car control systems? Will they have to tweak or rewrite code for different CPUs that the OEM may be using? All this requires additional resources.

But this is not the way Tesla (or Apple) approach design. They try to create the singular best product by having full design control over both hardware and software, and over ALL the hardware and software (witness both Tesla and Apple's desire to even make their own CPUs; this is total vertical integration). Making EV powertrains or other components for other OEMs are simply not consistent with this design principle. This to me is the crux of the problem for those advocating that Tesla sell components to other OEMs. And I believe, Musk, like Steve Jobs with Apple, sees this.

See also my earlier message:

Well obviously Tesla would sell a complete package including BMS, Batman and Robin ASIC chips and unified Powertrain software. That's the core of their product.

Apple is less vertically integrated than Tesla, they make a much simpler and less labour intensive product and they are not working on a highly time sensitive mission to end carbon emissions - there is no real rational for them to supply other phone manufacturers. Apple's manufacturer Foxconn on the other hand does supply many of Apple's competitors and Foxconn gets many of the capex equipment economies of scale Tesla would be looking for here.

 

[Maitri982]

This Bertel guy has really lost his marbles. the whole twitter feed is insane. I'm amazed the media actually employed him in any capacity.

Did he go short Tesla with all his retirement funds or something? lol

His Twitter name is trademarked... That's hilarious.

 

[Christine69420]

Agree with your post - cut a bit to focus on your conclusion.

In conclusion: It seems pretty likely that HW3 networks will perform significantly better than HW2 networks, enough that FSD and Robotaxi might actually be viable 2020. Demos and Elon indicates this. Current HW2 performance might not give the full picture.

My likelihood estimation of this? 10%? 50%? 90%? It’s really hard... Just by Elon I would say 75%. By share price 0%. By wisdom of crowds 5%. From demos 50%. I will weight these together into my own estimate which is 20%. Yes that is high. But imo I don’t think most people have really grasped the magnitude of what I wrote above...

I love the idea of FSD and robotaxi! Can't wait! But there is a but here...

I have one question about robotaxi I can't find an answer to. I live in Norway and we have weather. In the winter the autopilot often aborts because cameras and sensors are covered in snow and dirt. And I have to park the car, get out, clean the camera lenses and the front bumper, get back in. Then the AP will work again - but often only for 5 minutes.

How will robotaxi work here? Only in the summer and not when it's raining? That would seriously limit the robotaxi usefullness. And if Tesla stopped selling to customers and used all cars as robotaxis then what? No more Teslas for me?

This is ofcourse a problem for all self driving technologies.

Already beeing discussed here: How do Tesla cameras self clean?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

This Bertel guy has really lost his marbles. the whole twitter feed is insane. I'm amazed the media actually employed him in any capacity.

Did he go short Tesla with all his retirement funds or something? lol

Please don’t give twitter trolls so much attention. This guy is meaningless. He is supposed to have 4100 followers, yet his tweets get 0 or 1 likes or retweets. That means he bought followers to pretend his opinion matters. Don’t give him and the other nobodies from the cesspool that is TESLAQ a platform on TMC.

 

[Unknown_Wizard]

Tesla dominates Auto Software by far... Thats more important than the manufactoring process which, at least for ev's, they dominate too.

 

[heltok]

Heltok:

What Tesla showed 3 years ago was a hack that didn't rely on neutral networks as much as they do now. Karpathy changed all this when he came on board.

I would love to be wrong....but FSD likely 2-5 years away still.

Sure. But hacks are not trivial either and they were constrained with compute and number of cameras. But anyway, would you claim that what they showed earlier this year was also a hack? According to Elon’s and Karpathy’s tweets it seems that they struggle with parking lots(Summon) and nonstandard traffic lights. Well even with HW2 neural networks they seem to do parking lots reasonable now and we have been seeing those blue traffic lights in so many presentations now that I assume they have made some progress on them by now.

I have heard so many people being skeptical of FSD. I get it, what they have release to customers have been overpromising and underdelivering. But the HW2/HW3 regulatory approval delay is outside of their control and we are looking at totally different compute, inputs and outputs and datasets. And likely different control also. Imo we should be very careful with judging HW3 by what we have seen of HW2.

 

[Buckminster]

19 hours since Elon's last tweet - feels like 5 days. Our lives are all a bit weird now being on-line so much. I am constantly looking at printed newspapers thinking they must be days old. 20 hours is about 5 news cycles in Brexit world...

 

[replicant]

Oh I went through lot of those when vacationing in France. They're much easier than highway ramps in New Jersey.

As a Parisian, I confirm that roundabouts are very easy to drive and shouldn't be difficult to manage by FSD. Just give way to cars that are already on it. Except Arc de Triomphe, which is huge, and Place La Concorde, which isn't actually a roundabout. I wonder how FSD will know that on the périphérique, one must give way to cars that enter it. This rule is unique to this particular road and I guess most French drivers don't even know about it either.