Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dww12]

Interesting that the number is exactly $4.20. Hmmmm...

2 days before earnings this will be quietly adjusted to a $1 profit, so the headlines can read “Tesla misses consensus estimates again”.

 

[Christine69420]

While Tesla sells more cars than they are making, other brands are not so lucky.

In Norway BMW is dropping the price of the BMW i3 by $10,000 or 21.88% down to NOK 375,800 from NOK 481,060. The newpaper is calling this a Monster Discount.

Source in Norwegian: BMW i3 med monsterrabatt | Finansavisen

This after Nissan recently started selling the Leaf with a $4000 or NOK 40,000 discount. This after Nissan have sold only half the number of Leafs they had this time last year. Now only 4568 YTD.
In Norway the Nissan Leaf starts from NOK 287,900.

Source in Norwegian: Kraftig salgsnedgang for Nissan Leaf | Finansavisen

 

[Bobfitz1]

Other highlights:

• "In addition, we achieved record net orders in Q3 and are entering Q4 with an increase in our order backlog."
• "As was also the case in Q2, nearly all of our Model 3 orders were received from customers who did not previously hold a reservation, solidifying the transition to generating strong organic demand."
• "We are continuing to focus on increasing production to meet that demand."

They are at 6.1k/week production with the Model 3 and 1.3k S/X.
Once China reaches 3k/week that's a combined production rate of 10.4k/week.

This is all good. Still, haven't they said they'd be able to produce 7K M3 per week for some time now?
Is there any information as to what is the bottleneck(s) that prevented 7K per week this quarter?
If they had produced at that rate, would deliveries have been 105K + ?

 

[LJS22]

investors are so blind to this stock, that when the Y starts production and GF3 starts production, reality is going to hit them like a freight train.

It shall make it that much sweeter

 

[CyberDutchie]

Interesting that the number is exactly $4.20. Hmmmm...

More interesting the word “currently”. The estimate will change a few days before ER to secure the headline “Tesla disappoints ... came in lower than Wall Street consensus ...

Rinse and repeat, forever. I‘m disappointed why Tesla cannot hire a competent CFO who can manage Wall Street expectations, like is the main job of any CFO at any publicly traded company.

They hire the brightest people in every department, why not hire the brightest CFO?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

More interesting the word “currently”. The estimate will change a few days before ER to secure the headline “Tesla disappoints ... came in lower than Wall Street consensus ...

Rinse and repeat, forever. I‘m disappointed why Tesla cannot hire a competent CFO who can manage Wall Street expectations, like is the main job of any CFO at any publicly traded company.

They hire the brightest people in every department, why not hire the brightest CFO?

The new CFO has only been in that position for like 2 quarters. And he has been giving more clarity.

I do however wish all financial statements were from him and not have Elon answer those questions on the conf call anymore

 

[Ulmo]

The liars are always out in force. Check out this ridiculous conclusion:

Yet: According to Tesla announces record deliveries of 97,000 cars in Q3 - Electrek (context: 97,000 delivered in same quarter):

13,000 (>13% more than delivered) more demand than supply. Simple logic!

 

[Zaxxon]

investors are so blind to this stock, that when the Y starts production and GF3 starts production, reality is going to hit them like a freight train.

Replace Y with 3 and you have this board in 2016. The stock will take off when it takes off. No one here knows when that'll happen.

 

[Ulmo]

Replace Y with 3 and you have this board in 2016. The stock will take off when it takes off. No one here knows when that'll happen.

Exactly. My experience as well.

 

[CyberDutchie]

The liars are always out in force. Check out this ridiculous conclusion:

View attachment 462230

Yet: According to Tesla announces record deliveries of 97,000 cars in Q3 - Electrek (context: 97,000 delivered in same quarter):
View attachment 462231
Simple logic!

Expect downgrades to come in one at the time. Next one tomorrow, then maybe one or two over the weekend to ensure continued downward pressure. Wall Street is so filthy corrupt!

 

[Svetlin]

Replace Y with 3 and you have this board in 2016. The stock will take off when it takes off. No one here knows when that'll happen.

Without "funding secured", "pedo guy", "let's go to youtube" and with a bit more careful setting of expectations (not sandbagging, just more clear messaging of the insanely ambitious goals), we would have hit $400 easily already.

 

[Bobfitz1]

1Q2020 will probably be rough because it will be the beginning of the GF3 ramp.

Q12020 is likely to be rough for several reasons. But why would one of them be the ongoing GF3 ramp during Q1? The capital cost of every robot and piece of equipment now installed in GF3 has been this quarter and some small add'l portion during Q4. Tesla will be adding more workers on the GF3 assembly line(s) over the coming quarters as needed by the overall rate of production on those lines.
The expensive part of the GF3 ramp will be counted in this year's financials.

 

[larmor]

If I understand this correctly, analysts are sour on Tesla because they aren't able to deliver cars fast enough to keep up with record demand. To me, that seems like a good problem to have and one that can be solved by expanding production, which they are in the process of doing. Analyst negativity is nuts.

Analyst negativity stems from FOMO, must have missed the IPO to current rise. In fact, valuation is lower this year than last, but selling more cars, improving products, cleaning up solar, and having a brand new factory in under one year in the world's largest emerging car market (its China, in case any analyst missed that), as well as making their own GPU/CPU and AI-FSD software places tesla at tipping point for marked increased valuations. Deliveries of a few thousand cars is not a big deal, and the optics of selling more lower priced M3 plays out in words as negative, but more tesla's on the road means more direct and shadow real world data mileage collection. Remember many silicon valley startups have gotten big time funding for AI driving hardware and software. What other company has real world data miles and video than tesla?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Q12020 is likely to be rough for several reasons. But why would one of them be the ongoing GF3 ramp during Q1? The capital cost of every robot and piece of equipment now installed in GF3 has been this quarter and some small add'l portion during Q4. Tesla will be adding more workers on the GF3 assembly line(s) over the coming quarters as needed by the overall rate of production on those lines.
The expensive part of the GF3 ramp will be counted in this year's financials.

To add on to this, all of the robotics and equipment that was packaged up from freemont and Giga1 and sent over to Giga 3 has already been paid for and more importantly, is already factored into the finances when it comes to depreciation and such. So we shouldn't see the same profit hit that new equipment that tesla has to depreciate on a quarterly basis.

Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[cricketman]

I am confident that this is an over-reaction, just like the "China Tesla fail" share drop the previous week.

We will be back ranging between $240-$250 again until either the earnings call, or some very good or negative news before the call

Crazy that Tesla is only valued at $40b when it is the only car company growing in the world right now (and at decent volume), and therefore the one least likely to go bankrupt! It is slightly profitable/unprofitable despite all the required capex and has a 10 year head-start on technology!

A sensible valuation right now would be $100b, and it will correct eventually. Stay long and keep loading up!

 

[Cartegena]

13,000 (>13% more than delivered) more demand than supply. Simple logic!

So the Customers' Deposits balance should increase by $ 32 million?

 

[Antares Nebula]

Q12020 is likely to be rough for several reasons. But why would one of them be the ongoing GF3 ramp during Q1? The capital cost of every robot and piece of equipment now installed in GF3 has been this quarter and some small add'l portion during Q4. Tesla will be adding more workers on the GF3 assembly line(s) over the coming quarters as needed by the overall rate of production on those lines.
The expensive part of the GF3 ramp will be counted in this year's financials.

Capital costs are amortized over the period of use. Cash flow will be affected this year but not profit and loss statement.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Simply amazing to still be hearing demand worries when Tesla had 110,000 orders and growing exiting Q3 and heading into Q4 which is the strongest quarter of the year.

One thing being a Tesla investor has made me realize......I chose the wrong career. Man I should've been an analyst. Hardly do any research, get paid well, no liability for what I say, and on and on

It's almost exactly like being a meteorologist, except a LOT more money!!

 

[elasalle]

So just as an exercise, what would have been increase in Revenue if Tesla had actually sold 100K cars?

 

[HG Wells]

About 3000 * 50000 = 150 Million