Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

Couldn’t resist a cluster of buttons on the wheel, though.

They have to be able to cross /some/ components over to their ICE vehicles. Margins, you know.

 

[humbaba]

This statement "Shorts are up +$3.02 billion in YTD mark-to-market profits,-$73mm in Sept"

Shorts would be up if they closed their positions, except they don't, do in fact they're down because they're paying interest daily...

If they did close their positions then the SP would be way higher.

His numbers are all paper profits/losses based on aggregate short holdings. Some of the shorts do cover their positions low and make money. Others cover at a loss. When he says shares shorted are up that doesn't account for the actual activity which is undoubtedly a mix of shorting and covering at any given time (including within a trading day).

So: his numbers are net changes in short positions without any regard for intra-day activity. They also do not represent actual gains or losses, but what the net positions are worth.

Remember: he is releasing these numbers to advertise S3's service which is to give insight into short holdings. The idea is that someone interested in shorting stock will want to take this data into account for whatever stocks they are considering shorting.

Relevance to TMC? Although he is certainly fallible it is better than the stale official data.

I think he takes the daily interest into account when he calculates their profit/loss.

Correct

 

[mrdoubleb]

Fred acts as stenographer for VW

VW unveils production version of ID.3 electric car: starts under $33,000 with range up to 340 miles - Electrek

seems like I'm not the only person pointing out his errors to have been "shadowbanned." comments section echoes Fred's mischaracterization of a Nissan Leaf peer as if it is some kind of big step forward in offering value in an EV.

It is absolutely infuriating how it became a habit of manufacturers and the media that parrots the press releases without any validation, that they quote the price of the base model and the range of the highest end car in the headline.

 

[Nocturnal]

72k crashes a year and 6k fatalities per year due to drowsy drivers in the U.S. Your assumption is people are sleeping at the wheel BECAUSE of AP. Not that people would have slept regardless what car they drive. You'll never find anyone video taping someone sleeping at the wheel of an ICE car because they would have crashed between 5-10 seconds into dosing off.

That is not my assumption. Not sure how my post suggests it was. AP preventing crashes is an entirely different point than my point about people abusing AP.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

View attachment 452702

holy crap. Thats like someone just did a bad photoshop for a meme. Is there an actual designer putting their name to that?

 

[kengchang]

holy crap. Thats like someone just did a bad photoshop for a meme. Is there an actual designer putting their name to that?

But I bet /r/ReslTesla loves it!

 

[SteveG3]

fwiw, it appears the WLTP highway mileage on the 3 ID3 variants might only be,

143 miles (under ~$33k version)
186 miles (under ~$44k version)
242 miles (large battery, price not yet disclosed)

based on this article,

New 2020 Volkswagen ID.3: electric car arrives at Frankfurt

phrasing is not explicit, i.e.,

"The wider range will feature a less powerful variant with 148bhp and a smaller-capacity 45kWh battery, for a range of between 143 and 205 miles – plus a range-topping edition that’ll mix the 201bhp motor and a 77kWh battery. This allows the ID.3 to travel between 242 and 342 miles between charges."


Looks like something for @ZachShahan and Clean Technica (and/or other EV sites, etc) to follow up on... articles out may be overstating highway range nearly 50%.

 

[Singuy]

That is not my assumption. Not sure how my post suggests it was. AP preventing crashes is an entirely different point than my point about people abusing AP.

You just said it..you accuse of people for abusing AP, which means the assumption here is that because they have AP, they decided to take a nap. The point of my post is that people naturally gets tired while driving and sometimes people ends up sleeping at the wheel. They didn't do it BECAUSE they had AP(only way it shows sign of abusing AP if they did it because they had AP).

 

[204EV]

Also on some more recent specs comparisons. the ID3 in its smallest battery form is only 128kg less than a Model 3 Performance
and 110kg Heavier than a Sr+ I think when they actually put these in customers hands it will be terrible highway range. 0.267 Cd is not great and I bet it gets worse at high speed with that flat back. 8.0 sec 0-60 i mean if you trust VW and you want a hatchback. I guess it's a good deal.

 

[Svetlin]

fwiw, it appears the WLTP highway mileage on the 3 ID3 variants might only be,

143 miles (under ~$33k version)
186 miles (under ~$44k version)
242 miles (large battery, price not yet disclosed)

based on this article,

New 2020 Volkswagen ID.3: electric car arrives at Frankfurt

phrasing is not explicit, i.e.,

"The wider range will feature a less powerful variant with 148bhp and a smaller-capacity 45kWh battery, for a range of between 143 and 205 miles – plus a range-topping edition that’ll mix the 201bhp motor and a 77kWh battery. This allows the ID.3 to travel between 242 and 342 miles between charges."


Looks like something for @ZachShahan and Clean Technica (and/or other EV sites, etc) to follow up on... articles out may be overstating highway range nearly 50%.

You seem to be using the conversion between NEDC and EPA to get to those pretty bad numbers. The advertised ranges are WLTP, which is still more optimistic than EPA, but a lot better than NEDC.

342 miles of WLTP range should be about 305 EPA miles.

Here's How To Calculate Conflicting EV Range Test Cycles: EPA, WLTP, NEDC

 

[Singuy]

fwiw, it appears the WLTP highway mileage on the 3 ID3 variants might only be,

143 miles (under ~$33k version)
186 miles (under ~$44k version)
242 miles (large battery, price not yet disclosed)

based on this article,

New 2020 Volkswagen ID.3: electric car arrives at Frankfurt

phrasing is not explicit, i.e.,

"The wider range will feature a less powerful variant with 148bhp and a smaller-capacity 45kWh battery, for a range of between 143 and 205 miles – plus a range-topping edition that’ll mix the 201bhp motor and a 77kWh battery. This allows the ID.3 to travel between 242 and 342 miles between charges."


Looks like something for @ZachShahan and Clean Technica (and/or other EV sites, etc) to follow up on... articles out may be overstating highway range nearly 50%.

Tesla needs to start releasing min and max numbers so we can have headlines like "Tesla Model 3 to have up to *550 miles of range".
*must be sitting behind a truck going 40 miles/hr and driver cannot weight more than 110lb

 

[humbaba]

You just said it..you accuse of people for abusing AP, which means the assumption here is that because they have AP, they decided to take a nap. The point of my post is that people naturally gets tired while driving and sometimes people ends up sleeping at the wheel. They didn't do it BECAUSE they had AP(only way it shows sign of abusing AP if they did it because they had AP).

I think it is possible for some people to abuse autopilot (deliberately fail to remain attentive) and others to fall asleep inadvertently. Some many decades ago I knew someone who fell asleep at the wheel. In contrast to expectations voiced here they did not die -- instead they drifted off the roadway coming to a stop in the grassy margin and waking up. Were they lucky? I'm not sure what the odds of dying as a result of falling asleep, but fatigue certainly increases the risk of accidents.

Does autopilot help save lives? Certainly: both of the occupants as well as others on the road way (drifting into oncoming traffic is a recipe for mutual death).

Does abusing autopilot make bad PR? I'm not sure its clear. It aggravates me as I get to hear more about how Tesla's are suicide vehicles, but it also results in free advertising and few people will miss the fact that the car remained safe while the driver was (supposedly) asleep. Is it a net positive? I don't know, but I do find it aggravating.

I also suspect the latest video was put on, likely with the people recording in on the joke. But in terms of advertising and PR it doesn't really matter whether or not it was a hoax. People see it and respond how they respond -- future clarifications often do little to change the initial response.

 

[SteveG3]

You seem to be using the conversion between NEDC and EPA to get to those pretty bad numbers. The advertised ranges are WLTP, which is still more optimistic than EPA, but a lot better than NEDC.

342 miles of WLTP range should be about 305 EPA miles.

Here's How To Calculate Conflicting EV Range Test Cycles: EPA, WLTP, NEDC

As I said, it is not clear what is going on, which is why I suggested the likes of Clean Technica follow up with VW for clarification.

Do you have any sourced information that the lower numbers are NEDC numbers? NEDC numbers are more optimistic than WLTP, but, nearly 50% better... extremely doubtful. Think it was maybe about 10% difference between the two.

 

[CyberDutchie]

holy crap. Thats like someone just did a bad photoshop for a meme. Is there an actual designer putting their name to that?

Actually, with the white and orange, the interior doesn’t look bad to me at all, kind a nice looking... especially for an econo-box

 

[Singuy]

You seem to be using the conversion between NEDC and EPA to get to those pretty bad numbers. The advertised ranges are WLTP, which is still more optimistic than EPA, but a lot better than NEDC.

342 miles of WLTP range should be about 305 EPA miles.

Here's How To Calculate Conflicting EV Range Test Cycles: EPA, WLTP, NEDC

Nope, read the entire thing. He was covering using 242 HWY miles because all these German companies are so rattled by their incompetency that they are listing MAX ranges and MIN ranges..Max range being some hypermiled BS.

 

[humbaba]

As I said, it is not clear what is going on, which is why I suggested the likes of Clean Technica follow up with VW for clarification.

Do you have any sourced information that the lower numbers are NEDC numbers?

Yeah, I read the linked article. WTF is it with this "from 143 to 205 miles range"? That's too large of a spread to be a hedge for what the rated range will be and it doesn't match someone getting confused by miles versus kilometers. It just makes no sense.

I'm with @204EV that when people actually get them the range will be... disappointing.

But, hey, at least its another EV and hopefully it will be sold in high volume than the Taycan.

 

[humbaba]

As I said, it is not clear what is going on, which is why I suggested the likes of Clean Technica follow up with VW for clarification.

Do you have any sourced information that the lower numbers are NEDC numbers? NEDC numbers are more optimistic than WLTP, but, nearly 50% better... extremely doubtful. Think it was maybe about 10% difference between the two.

FWIW: according to VW/Porsche it ranges from 15% to 30% -- so with the Taycan they chose to use 20%.

 

[Chop110]

Couldn’t resist a cluster of buttons on the wheel, though.

Personally, I like that they provided a separate display for the speedometer. I miss it on a Model 3

 

[CyberDutchie]

I think it is possible for some people to abuse autopilot (deliberately fail to remain attentive) and others to fall asleep inadvertently. Some many decades ago I knew someone who fell asleep at the wheel. In contrast to expectations voiced here they did not die -- instead they drifted off the roadway coming to a stop in the grassy margin and waking up. Were they lucky? I'm not sure what the odds of dying as a result of falling asleep, but fatigue certainly increases the risk of accidents.

Does autopilot help save lives? Certainly: both of the occupants as well as others on the road way (drifting into oncoming traffic is a recipe for mutual death).

Does abusing autopilot make bad PR? I'm not sure its clear. It aggravates me as I get to hear more about how Tesla's are suicide vehicles, but it also results in free advertising and few people will miss the fact that the car remained safe while the driver was (supposedly) asleep. Is it a net positive? I don't know, but I do find it aggravating.

I also suspect the latest video was put on, likely with the people recording in on the joke. But in terms of advertising and PR it doesn't really matter whether or not it was a hoax. People see it and respond how they respond -- future clarifications often do little to change the initial response.

Out of my own experience—a daily AutoPilot user for the last 3.5 years—when you’re tired, it is easier to fall asleep with AutoPilot than without AutoPilot. Especially in the evenings on the freeway when it’s dark.

I agree with the majority in the autonomous world that driver monitoring is going to be important for the years where we gradually transition from driver supervision to full self driving. And I wished Tesla would put more resources behind it.

 

[madodel]

Toyota?

If it were a Toyota it would have crashed and no one cares about that.