Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

If my math is right, options pricing is currently indicating an expected move of ~6.7% (or 17.50 in the price) for the earnings call.

 

[Krugerrand]

What makes you claim these price predictions with so much certainty? You keep saying the stock price will go through the roof **guaranteed!** but what's the point of repeating this again and again? You can explain what makes you believe this, obviously, but repeating such claims to a (mostly) bullish audience, without any arguments, helps no one.

That’d be the same reason/s for people to keep repeating the following here:

I know a bunch of people that would have bought a Tesla if not for the FUD.

Tesla needs to advertise.

Trains are the bomb.

FSD won’t happen for 125 years and even then it’ll require full driver attention.

Tesla service sucks.

Price reductions bad.

Price raising is bad.

S&P inclusion requires profitability for 6.5 quarters, less 45% margins but only if FCF is 8% of COGS and leases last no longer than 18 months.

Do NOT make me list the reasons why people do what they do. I’ve got other things I’d like to get accomplished before Christmas.

As is usual around the timing of various Tesla events, there’s an influx of disingenuous people and others have simply lost their bloody minds.

 

[Krugerrand]

So, we’ve got a big week ahead of us.

Naturally, TSLA stock price changes are unpredictable but what is everyone’s SWAG on what results are needed to see the price rise this week?

I guarantee the price will rise if Tesla announces a profit of $1B.

 

[EVNow]

Where are you getting this information, and where did the other ~6.5k cars go?

I think there a few mistakes in the calculations you have. Are you planning to make the corrections ? Interested in seeing what you come up with.

 

[elasalle]

Microsoft invests $1 billion in artificial intelligence project co-founded by Elon Musk

 

[moneyburner1]

From my point of view Tesla is still production contrained concerning the Model 3.
Otherwise I would have expected that they send 1-2 ships earlier to Europe...

I am expecting Tesla to guide for 95k deliveries in Q3 and 105k in Q4 with the help of China GF4.
As the inventory is quite low I would expect that everything sold in q3 needs to be produced in this quarter.

Out of the 95 k I would expect 80k Model 3.
Last quarter Tesla produced 72,5 k Model - so they need to increase the output by 10 % in Q3 vs Q4.

Does anybody know how utilized the Tesla production is? Are they producing 3 shifts - and 7 days a week already or is there add. capacity?

What would be the highest output in Fremont given a "normal" production (incl. Maintenance and Change over due to different Model 3 variants)?

 

[moneyburner1]

If you have bought a new Model 3 out of stock did you have the chance to negotiate a further rebate or incentive?

Or does Tesla still stick with the list price published on their website if you buy a new car out of the stock?

Would be great to hear some experience...

 

[EVMeister]

If you have bought a new Model 3 out of stock did you have the chance to negotiate a further rebate or incentive?

Or does Tesla still stick with the list price published on their website if you buy a new car out of the stock?

Would be great to hear some experience...

Tesla doesn't have dealerships. You don't negotiate the price, you pay what is listed. I think that's what you were asking, not sure what you meant with "out of the stock" in this context (new inventory listing?)

 

[MissAutobahn]

I hope this hasn't been posted yet, but it would bring more demand for Tesla in Europe. At least people switching from SR+ to LR.
10% Duties on American cars could be terminated in Europe.
Handelsstreit: EU bietet Abschaffung von Zöllen auf US-Autos an

 

[Cobbler]

I hope this hasn't been posted yet, but it would bring more demand for Tesla in Europe. At least people switching from SR+ to LR.
10% Duties on American cars could be terminated in Europe.
Handelsstreit: EU bietet Abschaffung von Zöllen auf US-Autos an

Finally an affordable Ford Mustang Bullitt, Corvette C8 or Dodge RAM in Belgium!

 

[HG Wells]

If you have bought a new Model 3 out of stock did you have the chance to negotiate a further rebate or incentive?

Or does Tesla still stick with the list price published on their website if you buy a new car out of the stock?

Would be great to hear some experience...

I don't know about anyone else, but I am quite proud that I negotiated a great deal for a blue SR+ inventory car.
After 2 hours of back and forth, I got them to throw in a 29 cent BIC pen.

 

[KarenRei]

Microsoft invests $1 billion in artificial intelligence project co-founded by Elon Musk

I can't wait to see the next version of Clippy.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Quite the organized MMD today. Will be interesting to see if buyers come in later in the day or if we can expect this type of consistent bear attack effort up until Wednesday. The "early morning analyst note" tactic has been used so much I'm surprised anyone would react to it anymore

 

[Nocturnal]

Local Tesla club attended a car show and I gave out about 17 rides to people. The local news was there and I gave the camera guy a ride and a quick spiel about the features. Made the local news! It was a decent little segment. They described it as a ride in a Tesla self driving car, showed me driving with the visualizations, and talked about autopark, lane keeping etc.

Crappy phone recorded video if anyone is interested. I had hoped they would keep in my audio talking about the car but oh well. The camera guy said he was shocked by how fast it accelerated.

https://youtu.be/hNAV2mLtWE4

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't know about anyone else, but I am quite proud that I negotiated a great deal for a blue SR+ inventory car.
After 2 hours of back and forth, I got them to throw in a 29 cent BIC pen.

If it said "Tesla" on it, I'm jealous!

I stole two pens during my delivery to make sure I was getting a better deal than the next guy!

 

[Nocturnal]

If it said "Tesla" on it, I'm jealous!

I stole two pens during my delivery to make sure I was getting a better deal than the next guy!

Pfftt. You guys are rookies. I drank 2 cups of their coffee and took a dump there. That's like a street value of nearly $5.

 

[madodel]

I don't know about anyone else, but I am quite proud that I negotiated a great deal for a blue SR+ inventory car.
After 2 hours of back and forth, I got them to throw in a 29 cent BIC pen.

Hah, I got a pen, a paper weight and an umbrella. But managed to successfully negotiate myself out of free Ludicrous mode.

 

[EVDRVN]

Microsoft invests $1 billion in artificial intelligence project co-founded by Elon Musk

Great, now Musk will be wired to a Windows machine, and I thought things were getting slowly better.

 

[moneyburner1]

Tesla doesn't have dealerships. You don't negotiate the price, you pay what is listed. I think that's what you were asking, not sure what you meant with "out of the stock" in this context (new inventory listing?)

Thanks,

yes, I meant if you buy a car from the current stock that is already produced.

 

[ggr]

Eh.....I don't think the FUD has had any effects on Tesla's demand. Sure some people have easily bought into it and/or just are anti climate chance, etc...but that hasn't actually had any effect on Tesla's sales. Literally the only quarter where you could even remotely say that the FUD had any effect was Q1 but even then, it was Tesla's own production issues(both 3 and updating the S/X with Raven) and delivery logistics that caused the Q1 results.

Going forward, I think the FUD effect is going to be practically non-existent. The FUD will still exist for sure....but with Tesla delivering 100k+ vehicles every quarter for Q3 and Q4 and then upwards of 150k/quarter in 2020, it's practically game, set, match. The cars are moving advertisements...….whether it's the speed, the electric novelty, the huge screen interface, the Apps(the racing game and fart apps are huge hits with consumers)

I just returned from a week in rural southern Maryland. When there I go for morning walks with a woman who was best friend of my parents-in-law. One day she came out of the blue with: "Electric vehicles would be totally unsuitable for life around here." When I probed further, she still thinks they have ridiculously limited range and you have to go somewhere to charge them. Once I was outside the DC beltway I didn't see a single BEV (although quite a few Priuses). Actually a Bolt or SR+ would be a perfect car for her. The nearest (price-gouging) gas station is 5 miles away and not in a direction she would normally go in any case. Her travel is pretty much to the shops (10 miles), church (20 miles), post office daily (3 miles), and friends and family all within 50 miles. The dealership for her car is nearly 50 miles although she gets regular services a bit closer.

She then proceeded to tell me about her grandson who had been staying with her, working at stocking shelves at the local (25 miles) Target, who has twice been stranded because he forgot to fill his car and at his starting time 4am all the gas stations are closed.

I don't think I convinced her. We may move one of our Teslas there.