Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

OK, that's it. NOW, the competition is REALLY coming! Silly Tesla Bull investors need to listen to the discussion clip on top of the page.

Electric Cars: Why Toyota Will Be the Envy of the World

Just looks at that picture of the new Toyota ultra-compact EV. They are really innovating, throwing away old obsolete design concepts, such as safety, aerodynamics, aesthetics, luggage space ...

 

[RobStark]

So whether or not advertising is wise depends on a lot of data and knowledge that no one outside of Tesla possesses.

IF Elon dismisses advertising out of hand I doubt he would pay to do an analysis on advertising RoI.

I sincerely doubt the RoI on an additional $10M spent on powertrain is better than $10M spent on advertising.

For the first $10M would net you about $500M in free advertising in media discussing Tesla adverts.

BTW Trolls are going to troll. Tesla should pay them no mind when deciding what to do. That TSLAQ will scream to to high heaven that Tesla is advertising because Tesla has no demand is a given.

BTW II If we can't question any Tesla management decisions because "Tesla management has more proprietary information" then we just killed about ~50% of on topic post here.

 

[Icer]

Advertising
Elon's tweets are covered by the entire media.
Him and Trump share that, exclusively.
Everyone else needs to advertise.
*
But I think what is needed is
Education on the realities of ownership, for general audiences
There is so much disinfo, on friendly sites and not.

Owning and operating Gas cars are a known thing
Bad bits are accepted, because it is familiar, routine.
EVs to many are unknown, the unknown is feared.

Eg. An easy way to think about kWh, etc
We all know what a gallon is. Electricity? not so much

Ins and outs of charging, the different connectors.
Why Teslas is the best setup
apps to use, how do you find them?
Chargepoint has 66,586 total charging points

Experienced EVers telling folks why they want the longer range Tesla
Poor resale of inferior cars is because they
just did not have enough range to do the job.

Honest words from folks with a lot of experience.
Not as fans of Elon and such, just as people using these cars in their daily lives.
People coming out of a Leaf, or other Hybrid, etc.

General drift is educating people without getting all technical and geeky
on the reality.
Here is what to expect. Here is how to deal with it.

 

[Carl Raymond]

We're going to fail. A great many people will die, and many species will die off, and the world as we knew it will be gone forever. But the rich people who paid to prevent change so they could stay rich and powerful will survive as will homo sapiens as a species.

Disagreed because of the third sentence. If the ecosystem is doomed we are all doomed. Nobody survives independently of a healthy ecosystem.

 

[Thekiwi]

OK, that's it. NOW, the competition is REALLY coming! Silly Tesla Bull investors need to listen to the discussion clip on top of the page.

Electric Cars: Why Toyota Will Be the Envy of the World

Just looks at that picture of the new Toyota ultra-compact EV. They are really innovating, throwing away old obsolete design concepts, such as safety, aerodynamics, aesthetics, luggage space ...

Doesn’t look too bad as a design for a robotaxi for high density low speed environments (eg a CBD)

 

[LordAstinus]

I make no estimates worldwide. I just think the EU is going to be lower than Q1. Unless UK surprises, that's a possibility too. VIN-ology failed us big time last quarter. I'd hesitate to bring it into the argument. I keep not understanding why they would not make a profit nor be cash flow positive if they really do deliver 80k+ cars. That's more than in Q3 which had stellar results. @neroden mentioned build up in parts inventory but that's only cash flow.

Leasing?

 

[lascavarian]

I keep not understanding why they would not make a profit nor be cash flow positive if they really do deliver 80k+ cars. That's more than in Q3 which had stellar results.

There is a profit difference between domestic and export sales. I imagine there will be product in the channel that has been paid for but won’t be a complete sale by the time the quarter ends for various reasons.

 

[dhrivnak]

Doing my best to combat Tesla FUD usually 5 people at a time.

 

[EVNow]

I keep not understanding why they would not make a profit nor be cash flow positive if they really do deliver 80k+ cars. That's more than in Q3 which had stellar results. @neroden
mentioned build up in parts inventory but that's only cash flow.

Did you see my model in the Financial Projection thread ? You can compare to past quarters. You can also modify it with your assumptions and come up with your numbers.

No gaap profit because compared to Q3 lower ASP and lower margin.

I do think they will be cash flow positive. Chances of huge inventory buildup beyond Q1 is very unlikely. They will likely make $600M in cash if they deliver close to 90k.

 

[dqd88]

We're going to fail. A great many people will die, and many species will die off, and the world as we knew it will be gone forever. But the rich people who paid to prevent change so they could stay rich and powerful will survive as will homo sapiens as a species.

Seems I've landed in the "dystopian future" thread
Hopefully we all are rich by then can be included in the survivors.
(*Your outcome may or may not come true. Many outcomes are possible. It's too soon to tell.)

 

[UncaNed]

Just wire a cord into the WC

Yes, wire it to Mr. Spiegel's Water Closet or to his toothbrush or something.

MODS, I posted suggesting a rating system last year*, instead, could we-

1- Add a "remove from thread" Icon where after 5 or 6 users select it, it's brought to your attention for removal consideration
2- Space the rating icons farther apart for those of us with big fat clumsy fingers.

Thanks for considering.

*for posts that don't belong in this forum

 

[dqd88]

View attachment 419704 Doing my best to combat Tesla FUD usually 5 people at a time.

This is great. I wish Tesla would sponsor stuff like this. Maybe ask them? Sponsor mini events for public education.

 

[EVNow]

Leasing?

I've assumed low lease rate for 3. Anecdotally seems correct (hardly see anyone reporting leasing). The fact that after 3 years they have to return the car seems to have dissuaded likely leasers.

 

[dqd88]

Did you see my model in the Financial Projection thread ? You can compare to past quarters. You can also modify it with your assumptions and come up with your numbers.

No gaap profit because compared to Q3 lower ASP and lower margin.

I do think they will be cash flow positive. Chances of huge inventory buildup beyond Q1 is very unlikely. They will likely make $600M in cash if they deliver close to 90k.

What are some cost levers? Let's say they wanted to hit profit, could they temporarily cut R&D by say 20%?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I agree all human activities have adverse impacts on nature, and the world-wide population continues to expand. There are trade-offs and consequences to all alternatives for individual transportation. The better solution is to educate everyone on decreasing consumption and recycling everything that can be reused or repurposed. Fractionation of hydrocarbons produces numerous compounds that are converted to useful conveniences, but I have no interest in arguing about the application of which technology is more meritorious to produce and use modern (often discretionary) conveniences. MarcusMaximus said the environmental impact of cell production "has yet to be proven." He never bothered to look.

Incorrect. I stated, in an aside, that the effects of producing batteries for 100 million cars has yet to be proven. And I stand by that. The chemical makeup of these batteries is changing, and at least Tesla’s are becoming far less damaging over time. As mentioned by others, there are ways to extract lithium without significantly damaging local environments, which are already in common use. The amount of cobalt is being dramatically reduced from Tesla’s cells and will likely soon be 0%.

By the time we get anywhere near being able to produce that number of EV’s, the damage done to local environments will likely significantly decrease from where it is now. It still being significantly damaging, even to local environments, is not a given.

 

[dqd88]

I make no estimates worldwide. I just think the EU is going to be lower than Q1. Unless UK surprises, that's a possibility too. VIN-ology failed us big time last quarter. I'd hesitate to bring it into the argument. I keep not understanding why they would not make a profit nor be cash flow positive if they really do deliver 80k+ cars. That's more than in Q3 which had stellar results. @neroden mentioned build up in parts inventory but that's only cash flow.

EU should be lower by design. Focus is on NA, I think, which is better for margins, lower COGS. Focus goes back to EU in Q3, imo.

 

[Icer]

OT: Apocalypse Pretty Soon:

Disagreed because of the third sentence. If the ecosystem is doomed we are all doomed. Nobody survives independently of a healthy ecosystem.

Long term, all the problems solve themselves
Worst case, severe reduction in the population,
ends a lot of problems, including CO2.

Planet stabilizes, Humanity survives.
Not ones accustomed to soft and cushy.
Survivors, smart, tough, lucky.
Skills, preparations, plans made as situation got worse.
Uninhabitable zones force migrations north.
Horses, guns, dogs, cattle. Back to basics,
But with what was learned. How to do things.
Radio.

 

[dqd88]

If we go by the leaks - and put NA at 30k+33K = 63k - we still need about 30k in ROW to hit 93k total. If EU is 20k - and China doesn't hit 10k, it will be less than 93k (even if NA manages 63k).

Anyone knows what the April / May figures for Tesla in China are ?

I know the rest of Asian region is small, but what's the total est for Korea+Japan+Australia+New Zealand+Taiwan?

 

[dqd88]

Advertising
Elon's tweets are covered by the entire media.
Him and Trump share that, exclusively.
Everyone else needs to advertise.
*
But I think what is needed is
Education on the realities of ownership, for general audiences
There is so much disinfo, on friendly sites and not.

Owning and operating Gas cars are a known thing
Bad bits are accepted, because it is familiar, routine.
EVs to many are unknown, the unknown is feared.

Eg. An easy way to think about kWh, etc
We all know what a gallon is. Electricity? not so much

Ins and outs of charging, the different connectors.
Why Teslas is the best setup
apps to use, how do you find them?
Chargepoint has 66,586 total charging points

Experienced EVers telling folks why they want the longer range Tesla
Poor resale of inferior cars is because they
just did not have enough range to do the job.

Honest words from folks with a lot of experience.
Not as fans of Elon and such, just as people using these cars in their daily lives.
People coming out of a Leaf, or other Hybrid, etc.

General drift is educating people without getting all technical and geeky
on the reality.
Here is what to expect. Here is how to deal with it.

My idea: Tesla should create big centers called "Tesla World" or "EV World" which are part Sales+Service Center+Charge+Tesla retail (t-shirts, accesories, etc)+EV museum for general education on EV and physics for kids and adults+educational play space for kids+restaurant+cafe. Take over failing Sears/big box locations, approx 50k sq ft. A place to learn, hang out, shop, play. Parents are always looking for places to take the kids. We go to lots of play areas and museums. There's a train museum in Sacramento that's fun for kids, and educational. Or see California Academy of Sciences in SF. Great spaces. Why not a one-stop space for all things EV? (note- this wouldn't be a $ loss center, it would not be free, maybe a discount for owners. Would get high traction in the big markets).

 

[Carl Raymond]

OT: Apocalypse Pretty Soon:



Long term, all the problems solve themselves
Worst case, severe reduction in the population,
ends a lot of problems, including CO2.

Planet stabilizes, Humanity survives.
Not ones accustomed to soft and cushy.
Survivors, smart, tough, lucky.
Skills, preparations, plans made as situation got worse.
Uninhabitable zones force migrations north.
Horses, guns, dogs, cattle. Back to basics,
But with what was learned. How to do things.
Radio.

Doesn’t sound right, because the climate effect lags the CO2 level. If things have gotten so bad as to wipe a large portion of the population, things will continue to get worse for decades, centuries, even if the population collapse means zero emissions.
Warming causes warming. There’s the albedo problem and methane emissions from permafrost to contend with. Doom more likely to be completed than partial.