Farther on:
“Although the company is working toward developing a supercharging network, the number of charging stations still remains drastically low compared with gasoline stations."
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Farther on:
“Although the company is working toward developing a supercharging network, the number of charging stations still remains drastically low compared with gasoline stations."
I was wondering about the latest podcast where Elon said "the cell capacity will come online just in time for the model Y".
Is this the first reference to the cell capacity expansion planned for the Y?
I guess we don't have any hard numbers of GWHs this will add...this statement sort of sounded like they are doing their best to add capacity and this will be the earliest that they can actually do it. Maybe I'm just hearing something that's not there.
Is this the first reference to the cell capacity expansion planned for the Y?
I guess we don't have any hard numbers of GWHs this will add...this statement sort of sounded like they are doing their best to add capacity and this will be the earliest that they can actually do it. Maybe I'm just hearing something that's not there.
In other news, although oil companies are working towards making gasoline widely available, the number of gas stations remains drastically low compared with electrical outlets.
lol, I'm planning on installing a diesel charge station at my house....seriously though, how many people have gas stations at home?
JusRelax
Active Member
I think Tesla China made the right move... seems like demand in China is doing well after the Made In China pricing announcement:
Vincent on Twitter
Vincent on Twitter
I don't know much but shortly after Q1 call when they gave the guidance of 90k delivery w SP was at mid two hundreds. Now we are well below that range and the delivery is still priced in?!
There is a whole TMC thread about this:
Musk confirms/Tesla Refutes upgradeability from MCU1 to MCU2
Starts with a tweet from Elon saying yes in March 2019, and Tesla service saying nothing.
Lots of interesting observations, including hey if MC2 has way different wiring connections etc, how about an MCU1.5, which has identical connections to MCU1 but faster CPU and more RAM.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Less and less home fueling stations every year. Most of them are heating fuel oil without any payment of road taxes. In the 1970's my job as "delivery boy" for a small family pharmacy was to fill up the tank of the diesel VW Rabbit every week with oil from the bosses home heating tank. It had an electric pump and fill nozzle on it to make it easy. But it was anything but convenient or efficient because I had to drive a few miles out of my way to get there. Then there was the environmental liability should there be a leak/spill and the low but real risk of being busted. For this, I was paid minimum wage. I also got to change the motor oil and filters in the business's parking lot 4 times/year. I can't remember what we did with the used motor oil. The hoops we had to jump through just to drive without spending an arm/leg, LOL!
There are probably around 15 billion electrical outlets in the US considering that practically every building has a bunch. Just unplug and go!
The acceleration of the 1970's diesel Rabbit would make a Toyota Murai seem like a Formula 1 car!
Sitting there and read online all day won't give you an edge, most of the information you get is either wrong or useless. This is true regarding any stock and the whole market. Very few people are really good. Spend your time wisely, sleep well, exercise. Cutting down your screen time will be overall positive for your life quality. Setup sound investment rules that you are able to follow. Add a 40% buffer to Elon's timeline prediction and dial back 20% for their quantity prediction. This way you will generally hit the target, and occasionally get a positive surprise. Tesla has been making fantastic products, I expect that trend to continue.
In the long run, Tesla has a decent chance to achieve their Master Plan Part Deux, the path may not be smooth. FSD is the key, I have no idea what will happen in this field. I think Tesla's approach makes sense, but other companies are also working hard on this, not sure who will be the first winner.
In the long run, Tesla has a decent chance to achieve their Master Plan Part Deux, the path may not be smooth. FSD is the key, I have no idea what will happen in this field. I think Tesla's approach makes sense, but other companies are also working hard on this, not sure who will be the first winner.
ZachShahan
Active Member
Is Wall Street Clueless On Tesla [TSLA]? | CleanTechnica
The most material tweet of 2018 was not the supposedly infamous “funding secured” tweet. It was the April 13, 2018, tweet that Tesla would be profitable in Q3 and Q4, that Tesla would not need to raise any money in 2018.
But it was not in line with the analysts’ views, so it was ignored, ridiculed, and considered a poor stock-pumping attempt. What all the analysts missed was that Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s Twitter account is an official Tesla publication channel, giving that tweet the status of an official press release to the financial community.
The Economist
✔@TheEconomist
· Apr 12, 2018
Tesla will need to raise $2.5bn to $3bn this year, according to Jefferies, a bank https://econ.st/2GKub8z
Tesla is heading for a cash crunch
The road ahead for Elon Musk’s car company is looking more perilous
economist.com
Elon Musk
✔@elonmusk
The Economist used to be boring, but smart with a wicked dry wit. Now it’s just boring (sigh). Tesla will be profitable & cash flow+ in Q3 & Q4, so obv no need to raise money.
18.5K
10:11 PM - Apr 12, 2018
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At the conference call about the Q1 results on May 2nd, 2018, a number of analysts kept asking about the money Tesla needed to raise — in their view. It was implied repeatedly that Tesla absolutely had to raise more money, despite Musk repeatedly saying they didn’t. This cumulated in an analyst insisting that Elon disclose how much money Tesla was going to raise, despite those repeated previous denials for the need to raise any money at all. It was very embarrassing, an analyst essentially telling the CEO to stop lying and tell everyone what the analyst wanted to hear.
A little lesson for analysts: CEOs and CFOs try not to lie to the financial press in official statements, press releases, quarterly financial reports, and press conferences. They can go to jail for doing that. And if you, great journalist or analyst, have a strong suspicion backed up by some evidence that one of those two is lying, call the SEC. The SEC loves to know about it, as long as it is about Tesla.
Worth noting here is that there was no slip in wording. Elon repeated many times that Tesla wouldn’t raise money in the rest of 2018, and would show profits in Q3 and Q4.
A year later, it is not much better. The current confusion on material info is about demand this time, instead of production capacity and profits. While demand for fully electric vehicles outside the USA is rising at a speed that carmakers can’t match, the American analysts show again that they don’t know the difference between sales and deliveries, or how the car market functions outside the USA. Or they pretend not to know.
They tell baseless stories about Tesla, embarrassing themselves by showing their lack of knowledge and ruining their credibility among those who can put 2 + 2 together.
Last week, a Tesla store in Vancouver, BC, reported selling 800 cars in a week. They will likely be delivered in Q3. Those boneheaded analysts will most likely report a surge in demand in Q3 and an “alarming drop” in Q4, while all that is likely to happening is a rush in Q2 that turns latent demand into actual sales because of a local incentive at the risk of running out. That is going to create what looks like a wave in demand, or roller coaster with a hard fall at some point, instead of steady-state demand. Is demand really going to fall off a cliff? Or is there simply going to be an unbalanced expression of consistent demand?
It is not really difficult when you have your facts straight.
So, here is a short tutorial for analysts:
There are two types of sales.
And here are some examples of issues affecting the two types of sales:
- The commercial sale — the customer deciding to buy and signing the sales contract. This is important for judging demand, and for a salesperson’s bonuses.
- The delivery and final payment. This is important for the accounting department and for allocating profit to the right period.
In the USA, type 1 sales and type 2 sales mostly occur on the same day. Knowing the number of type 2 sales is a good indicator of demand and the success of an ad campaign. In the rest of the world, Europe especially, there are usually a few weeks to a few months between the type 1 sale and the type 2 sale. That is also true for domestically produced vehicles. Most dealers do not have unsold new cars on their premises. They are considered a waste of money and a sign of bad salesmanship.
- Factories that are being upgraded have temporarily less production, less production implies fewer deliveries. (type 2 sales)
- Ships (not) arriving in overseas export markets dictate the logistics flow and spikes/drops in deliveries. (type 2 sales)
- Incentives being changed can cause spikes and drops in customer decisions to (not) buy a certain car. (type 1 sales)
- Incentives that are tied to date of delivery can spur before-deadline deliveries. (type 2 sales)
- Ad campaigns and media attention can increase the number of customers deciding to buy. (type 1 sales)
- Seasonality because of license plate series. (type 2 sales)
- Spikes after bonuses are being paid. (type 1 sales)
For various reasons, only type 2 sales are communicated to the financial press and the public at large. Type 1 sales are often shared with trade associations and government statistical bureaus. They are not shared with the competition and outsiders. Car journalists and financial analysts in Europe don’t pay attention to the numbers of a single month. Only when a pattern emerges over several months is it time for conclusions. Even when there is a likely cause and effect, as with the arrest of Ghosn in Japan, conclusions are very carefully made (in this case, mostly after confirmation by Nissan).
Tesla’s Vehicle Delivery Expectations (FactSet) Are Being Artificially Inflated. Image by Michael Grinshpun
People Repeatedly Claim Tesla Demand Is Falling When Data Shows Tesla’s Demand Is Rising. Image by Michael Grinshpun
In data sciences, you learn that pure data is meaningless. The process of giving meaning to data transforms it into information. To give meaning to data, one has to know the rules that apply to the data. When not knowing the rules, and therefore applying a wrong set of rules, the result is gibberish. Not recognizing the gibberish is as big an error as applying the wrong rules in the first place.
The information of Tesla having a demand problem is actual gibberish, but not recognized as such.
Recently, we have had two other examples of Wall Street not turning data into factual, correct information. Both were “leaked” internal emails from Elon to Tesla personnel. The first contained hyperbole about the burn rate the newly acquired capital could be exposed to. The second was about receiving many orders for cars.
Many articles are written about the question of how those highly paid Wall Street analysts lack basic reading comprehension to interpret the emails so wrongly. The best is “Some Thoughts On Elon Musk’s Emails To Employees — & The Media + Wall Street’s Response.” There is no reason for me to repeat what is in this article — just read it if you haven’t. Elon’s response to the article was, “Yup.”
The SEC is very critical about releasing material information that might not be 100% accurate. Elon Musk uses sometimes a big brush to paint the future he expects. Elon is not “scripted.” Other CEOs can give verbatim, years later, the same generic answer to a question they haven’t received in years. Elon will give two different answers when the same question is asked in the same conversation. He is responding in a human way to the question in the moment and going off of a memorized script checked obsessively by lawyers.
The SEC is right in asking for more accuracy in the communications, but the SEC shares the same handicap as much of Wall Street — it is apparently not able to recognize material information.
Last year’s April 13 tweet was not recognized for what it was, a very important public release about the Model 3 production problems being solved, and implications for the productivity and profitability of Tesla in the rest of the year.
The first letter this month was thought to contain the prediction that Tesla would run out of money in 10 months. It did no such thing, and if thinking about it for a few seconds, the numbers would not add up. When you have a cash position of $4B and you burn $2B in 10 months, you are not out of money — you still have $2B in cash. Also, Elon was not making a prediction or forecast — he was simply illustrating that $2B didn’t mean they had no cares in the world. There was no material information in that letter. It was a normal internal communication to employees like every company makes regularly — be frugal, don’t waste money.
The second letter did contain important information — about order intake, production volume, and production goals — exactly the kind of information Wall Street is always asking about and not getting, because they routinely interpret it incorrectly, just as happened this time.
And last but not least, there’s the complete misunderstanding of the difference between orders, logistics, deliveries, and demand. Wall Street analysts we are supposed to trust produce wild fairytales many conspiracy websites would be jealous of, joining a cult of “demand truthers” that until recently was only really present on #TSLAQ.
Let’s make a note about exceptions in the financial industry. Bank of America did state that the current Tesla stock price was the result of short seller manipulations, not the fundamentals. The expected messiness of the first quarter was, for Oppenheimer and ARK Invest, not a reason to revise their analyses and their long-term projections. Kudos to those three, which used their brains and facts instead of reproducing the reverberating sound in the echo chamber of Wall Street analysts, pundits, and $TSLAQ.
The effect of the other’s failures are $billions of lost value by real investors, the people the SEC was created to protect. And then there’s possibly $billions in profits for illegally manipulative, destructive short sellers, one of the market-disturbing groups the SEC was created to prosecute. The success of these short sellers is made possible by the Wall Street crowd of analysts, pundits, and mainstream financial journalists aiding and abetting them. It is their shortsightedness and echo chamber culture that mislead investors who are reallyinterested in how the company is doing.
To recapitulate, here are four examples of Wall Street completely missing the meaning of the data it receives:
What does it matter how accurate Tesla’s communications are when Wall Street is so incapable of understanding what is happening, what is important, and what is not important.
- FUD-induced rumors about falling demand combined with misunderstood European sales numbers.
- Ignoring the April 13 tweet about profitability and the following shareholder letter and verbal explanations.
- Seeing alarming financial forecasts where there is only motivational hyperbole in a normal letter to employees, a letter in which there isn’t any forecast whatsoever.
- Concluding lack of demand when there is actually a message of high order intake and possible record deliveries.
Okay, accurate information is important for us, specialized electric vehicle and renewable energy news outlets, compulsive Tesla followers, and Tesla investors. We need the information. Thus, I have a request.
At the end of the quarter, two numbers are published, production numbers and deliveries. Production tells us how well the factories are performing. Deliveries are about financial results, but a bit meaningless without the average sales price and gross margin.
I have a request for Tesla: Can you replace the delivery number with the net order intake number. Then the first quarterly report covers both production and sales. That would then be followed 3–4 weeks later by the normal report about the financial results that are achieved thanks to those performances.
Wall Street won’t understand the numbers, or will pretend not to, but hey, that is nothing new.
Thanks for sharing. Maarten is awesome.
One of the biggest daily green candles of the entire year, and with higher volume than a lot of other big daily green candles.
- Jan. 7th: +13.24 on 7.5M shares.
- Feb. 27th: +12.96 on 11.1M shares.
- Today: +12.50 on 13.7M shares.
- May 3rd: +11.17 on 23.7M shares.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Liked para 1. Disagree with para 2.
There’s gold AND silver in them thar hills. Sell cars for silver. Be first with FSD for gold. The concept of a single road to success via FSD is fuddy.
Further, nobody other than Tesla has a sufficiently large data collecting fleet to be first, at this time. And even should Tesla be beaten, highly unlikely, the winner will need EVs - more silver.
I heard rumors that Elon maybe announcing some amazing progress in Shanghai during the investor meeting and that he has been holding daily meetings with the crew in charge of building the machinery. Has anyone else heard this?
The strict definition of "IQ 100" is the median of all humans - i.e. literally 50% of the population is less smart than the median, regardless of whether it's a symmetric distribution, the other 50% to the right. Half of the time at least, when the number of humans is an even number, and assuming that nobody has exactly an IQ of 100.
Probably shouldn't continue this as its so off topic, but....
You are theoretically correct, but practically there are problems with norming and IQ tests. I have read that they suffer from limited sample sizes at the high end, ceiling effects where they cannot capture the high end, and fat tails/right skew/bump (to a very minor degree because of these limitations). There are some extended IQ tests which try to measure IQ up to 200 or so, compared to normal tests which only go up to 160 or so, but obviously it's very hard to get many people this high up to calibrate a test. Tests are also only correlated by about 0.6 - 0.8, between themselves, so I think you have to understand a whole bunch of limitations exist in trying to compress human intelligence into a nice neat normal distribution, and you might end up with a little bump at the end of your pretty normal distribution, when you start apply an IQ test in the real world.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Just placed an order at 194.7. Won’t execute. Seems my IG.com account does pre-market but not after-market.
Bet it doesn’t execute next pre-market either, opening higher and sailing on up.
Don TLR
Active Member
I got 31 of those,, was expecting a small dip and kept waiting so I lost out on 32
At least my average is coming down..
anthonyj
Stonks
Pretty amazing how there was no pullback today. Showing institutional support. Loving the 2020 calls I bought yesterday
There are a lot of uncertainties and assumptions. Let's do the math backwards.
AP - we have zero data. The only thing we know is that it looks like we have 6 ships to China and 1 to Japan this quarter vs. the 8 ships to China last quarter. But there is a lot we don't know like the impact of the trade war or people waiting on the cheaper GF3 Model 3. So let's assume ROW, incl. AP, is flat at 10k.
Europe had sales of ~8-8.5k cars in Q2 so far and we see 3.5 ships' to be unloaded and delivered. A ship being 3-5k cars, it's difficult to see how that goes beyond 23k in total, meaning flat on Q1.
To get to 90k cars (lower end of the guidance), NA would need to deliver 57k cars. Q2 so far is 28k, so they would need to do 29k in June. Impossible? No. Probable? Not sure.
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