Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[3Victoria]

Hate to say it, but that itself is an assumption as well.

Not really. Its either well based opinion or good speculation. He does use words like "seemingly". Tesla lacks a lot of the baggage of OEMs. In addition, OEMs, when selling a less profitable EV, are losing a more profitable ICE sale.

 

[KSilver2000]

Seems a little weird citing the 60+ age group as evidence that "there will always be a market for the big German brands"...

I didn’t use the word “evidence.”
And what is technically wrong with the snippet of what I wrote that you have in quotations? By definition, there does not need to be hundreds of thousands of buyers for a “market” to exist.
I also specifically wrote, “in my network.” I’m not saying everyone 60+ thinks that way. Just that those around me do. Thus, they have a preference for the typical German brand.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

See...I'm a frickin' financial genius! Up $2 in just a few hours. At this rate I'll be a millionaire by Thanksgiving! lol!

Dan

 

[carterm2]

Am curious what the investor community makes of this. Elon Musk plans to port Unity and Unreal gaming engines to Teslas

I’m not a gamer myself, so I don’t have market perspective. Is there a market opportunity for this type of enhancement in the car? I can think of many things I’d like to see first, but maybe I’m missing something. Or is this for Robo Taxi time - give occupants something to do? Or this for some totally different technical purpose.

Probably not just for games... hint.

 

[kyzhk]

Guys - does this work?

1) Over the years accumulated large short position with average price say $200/share (just making numbers up) on TSLA.
2) Cover the short position at a equity cap raise event ($243/share) so that there would be no upward buying pressure when covering.
3) Re-short at $255/share level and all the way down.

To wallstreet banks - if they held large short positions, wouldn't an equity cap raise event be perfect opportunity for them to cover their positions without driving TSLA up?

 

[Unpilot]

Elon already failed. This image wiĺl not change.

You have an apt user name.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I didn’t use the word “evidence.”
And what is technically wrong with the snippet of what I wrote that you have in quotations? By definition, there does not need to be hundreds of thousands of buyers for a “market” to exist.
I also specifically wrote, “in my network.” I’m not saying everyone 60+ thinks that way. Just that those around me do. Thus, they have a preference for the typical German brand.

Typically, if you're looking to see whether there will always be demand for something, you'd look to the younger generations, not the older ones.

 

[Tslynk67]

Common Misunderstandings About Corporations

Thanks for correcting me! I'm happy to see this is not the case.

 

[Nocturnal]

At least that would show Tesla still has strong demand, especially domestically. For TSLA, that’s a heck of a lot better than worrying about customers waiting.



Maybe because one is an overpromise and the other was not even promised. People aren’t buying a 3 because of a stated potential for FSD.

Maybe it’s just within my network, but could be factual if we can see the data. The older generation 60+ around me, such as my parents and their friends, do not factor FSD into their purchasing decision. In fact, they seem to be the most wary of letting the car drive itself (even though it might be better for their age group, along with teenagers; to utilize FSD). They’re mainly looking at interior comfort and exterior design. Unlikely Tesla will change their interior design philosophy. So, there will always be a market for the big German brands.

Generally I agree on overpromising, but if people aren't factoring it into their decisions then it shouldn't matter. On the design, I agree. I don't think even the most hard core bull thinks that we can be in a world where everyone wants to buy one of the 5 Tesla variants. Some will really want some exotic wood dash or a crap ton of buttons. Granted those people are slowly dying off, but until car ownership is a thing of the past, people will want unique designs.

Nice deflection attempt.
So if I promise you a better heaven than any other faith, that's a won for me by default?

That 3-series may well achieve FSD sooner. Because when someone other than Tesla achieve FSD, it will not be kept a limited edition. In fact, I remember there was a BMW decades ago that could lap a track as quick as a pro driver.
Even if Tesla wins the race to FSD and they get to use it world wide, the way they now promise to deploy it is self limiting. In a reality where only Teslas are FSD, there will be a decisive global effort to get a competitor for it. Heck, with just one supplier, some markets may ban it for monopoly while destroying jobs.
The moment another supplier achieves FSD, it will undercut Tesla. You can get driven to the airport by a wonderfully comfortable and roomy car from another brand for $20 or a Tesla will do it for $40. I don't see Tesla making a whole lot of money off RoboTaxi, they can't monopolize it and their cars are too costly.

That's not a deflection at all. (and no BMW will definitely not be the first to FSD, not in a million years, for many reasons and I say that as a BMW fan)

This car will self drive one day! (I doubt, they overpromise often)
This car will never self drive.

What rational person will not prefer the first one? The only reason why is if you are worried about being promised something else that the second car DOES have and the first doesn't yet. ​

 

[EinSV]

So what do you think and what do you do if you're Elon Musk and you wake up this morning and your stock is at 195?

What I hope he is thinking and will do is this:

Dear Elon: Please reconsider and take Tesla private

 

[elasalle]

So what do you think and what do you do if you're Elon Musk and you wake up this morning and your stock is at 195?

Keep adding new games to console

 

[ZachShahan]

No announcement also apparently tanks the stock.

Shorts smell blood, which I find hilarious because IIRC, didn't Tesla just get 5b dollars richer from FCA + cap raise?

It's been quite a while since TSLA price movement looked so illogical to me.

The Ford & Jaguar news is another interesting piece of the equation. I do monthly US sales reports of almost all automakers now (for past several months) and most of them are down, some down big, year over year. Tesla is the only one up big year over year. The rest of the market is suffering, yet Tesla is the one with the demand problem? Tesla Model 3 is still a top seller in US (top 10 or top 15 of all cars) despite no other cars at that price selling so high. Yet Tesla has the demand problem? Tesla hasn't started delivering cars to many markets and just started delivering its low-cost Model 3. Yet Tesla has the demand problem? Fiat (and possibly others) have to pay Tesla a good chunk of money because they can't produce compelling electric cars.

It's wild.

Though, I do see it as a great opportunity. In 2-3 years, I don't think there will be room for wild skepticism about Tesla or the ability to bury one's head in the Wall Street gutter mud. So, for those with the vision and (hopefully correct) faith in Tesla and its long-term potential, this is an amazing buying opportunity.

Yes, disclosure: I am one of those people who never thought we'd get so close to such a low price again. Sucks when you think about some prices you've bought at, but great when you think of the opportunity to buy more before the market wakes up.

I wonder what critical positive inflection points will be. Possibilities in my mind are: Tesla outperforming (by a good margin) delivery expectations, FSD getting turned on and legalized in a few early markets (Florida, UAE, China?), a big automaker or two going bankrupt.

We'll see. No one knows. And that's why some will win and some will lose (big).

 

[kyzhk]

So what do you think and what do you do if you're Elon Musk and you wake up this morning and your stock is at 195?

I could see possibly phone calls from existing institutional holder asking for his permission to increase their stake at discounted price.

I have no idea what I am talking about in this post, I assume they do communicate in the back, right?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Hopefully the FCA credits go into COGS and therefore increase GM.

Credit sales go into Automotive Revenue and do boost gross margin. ZEV credit sales only count toward Tesla's GAAP results, non-ZEV also counts toward non-GAAP. Q1 had 200m of non-ZEV credit sales, apparently all to FCA. Without that automotive gm would have been ~15% instead of 20.2%. $2 billion over three years is ~167m/quarter, so gross margin should continue to receive support though the percentage impact will be lower as deliveries increase.

Even without FCA credits in COGS, I believe GM in Q2 will be at least a few points better than Q1 because

- Price hikes for P & L (no more free L in Europe)

- Deliveries will be significantly higher therefore better production fixed cost absorption
- They were able to effectively reduce production costs for S & X, hopefully that trend continues for 3
- Not sure when Shanghai depreciation starts though

Prices were cut then hiked. A lot of Q1 deliveries, especially in Europe, were for orders placed before the cuts. ASP should decline in Q2 due to both lower pricing and mix shift.

Fixed cost absorption is based on production, not deliveries. I haven't seen anything about adding the 2nd S/X shift back. Has anyone? Model 3 production should be up a little. Shanghai depreciation will start when they begin production. Tesla kills their GAAP profit by selling cars from day one instead of using the first few hundred cars for testing and only putting the factory into service after they're able to produce at a reasonable rate. Tesla's approach is better for cash flow, however.

To be very clear, it was not “misinterpreted”, it was misquoted. He did not write it in a language that could be misinterpreted. When you’re willing to completely change what was said, then no amount of care can prevent such “misinterpretation”.

Headlines focus on the 10 months, but that didn't move the market. CFO and CEO signing off on purchase orders is the real problem. That's only done in extreme near-BK crisis situations, or by extreme micro-managers who can't hire competent people and delegate. Neither is a good look for a growth stock with sky-high valuation metrics.

 

[Nocturnal]

As a person in that age group, FSD is a major turn-on because I know that my reflexes aren't what they were thirty years ago, and they are not likely to get better. However, I'd prefer an X to a 3 because neither I nor my friends are as flexible as they once were.

While visiting family last month, both my stepmom (who hates driving herself) and my step-grandma (who is just getting old) were super excited about the prospect of self driving or assisted driving. Neither of them give a crap about having a fancy dashboard etc.

On these forums we often talk about being in our Tesla bubble, but there is definitely a general "car enthusiast" bubble that we also fit into, and so do many Tesla detractors.

 

[Skipdd]

Probably not just for games... hint.

Guess I should cross post this in the Autonomous driving threads and see what they make of it..

 

[omarsultan]

The moment another supplier achieves FSD, it will undercut Tesla.

"FSD" is not a commodity check-box item. There will be wide qualitative differences between implementations for the foreseeable future. One of the major reasons behind the variance is the size and quality of the data set training that FSD system and Tesla beats anyone else by a wide margin on that front (Tesla is at approx 1.3 billion miles, while the much-lauded Waymo is around 10-15 million). That will yield a system that is more capable in more scenarios.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Just a quick note, as of this typing, AAPL is down more on the day than TSLA.

 

[Cloxxki]

Generally I agree on overpromising, but if people aren't factoring it into their decisions then it shouldn't matter. On the design, I agree. I don't think even the most hard core bull thinks that we can be in a world where everyone wants to buy one of the 5 Tesla variants. Some will really want some exotic wood dash or a crap ton of buttons. Granted those people are slowly dying off, but until car ownership is a thing of the past, people will want unique designs.

That's not a deflection at all. (and no BMW will definitely not be the first to FSD, not in a million years, for many reasons and I say that as a BMW fan)

This car will self drive one day! (I doubt, they overpromise often)
This car will never self drive.

What rational person will not prefer the first one? The only reason why is if you are worried about being promised something else that the second car DOES have and the first doesn't yet. ​

Tesla says self driving matters. But it only does if they succeed.
I don't say BMW will get there first, but ALL brands might still get there before Tesla. Because, proper management, smoother funding, clearer customer focus.
I also say that even if Tesla get there fist, it will be a temporary monopoly after which they will be priced out of the market. VW's first attempt at a ground up BEV will render Model 3 a posh car. The "affordable" Tesla is posh compared to the VW. Think about it. How will someone pick a Model 3 Robotaxi, pay extra and get a wooden behind for the privilege?
Tesla can't make enough cars to make a profit, they sure can't make enough cars to make a big impact on the taxi business.

 

[AlexS]

So what do you think and what do you do if you're Elon Musk and you wake up this morning and your stock is at 195?

you double check if your margin call is 130 or 190

some humor is always welcome