Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

Here is a nice video discussing expectations of autonomous vehicles:

Two thoughts came to mind while watching this.

A referendum is the best way to legalise driverless cars. Without societal buy-in, those (fewer) accident victims will point the finger, lawyer up and sue for ridiculous sums, many times larger than current payouts. A referendum forces us to consider the right choice based on ‘what law maximises the chance of my son/daughter coming home alive’.

In the March of 9s, we are told progress is accelerating. Let’s assume then that a 9 is gained in a period of less than one year. At some point the data says driverless has reached parity, and the debate begins. If the debate lasts 2 years, the driverless side wins, because by then driverless is 100 times safer, two more 9s have been added.

 

[Unpilot]

That tweet is more than a month old...

I think that was his point.

 

[Electroman]

hope that Tesla takes all the time they need to confirm how MXWL tech affects the cells long term and don't rush to roll it out.

Agreed. And so far they have been extremely good when it comes to certifying and manufacturing battery tech. So I am pretty sure they would do the same for Maxwell too. When it comes to battery tech and drive train - you either hit it out of the park, or fold and go home. Where Nissan failed, Tesla succeeded wildly.

 

[Carl Raymond]

pretty sure they would do the same for Maxwell too

Pretty sure they started already, and maybe concluded already. Maxwell couldn’t expect the deal to occur without providing samples. Musk always said: don’t send us claims, send us some cells.

 

[EVNow]

. Nevertheless, I hope that Tesla takes all the time they need to confirm how MXWL tech affects the cells long term and don't rush to roll it out.

I'm sure Tesla has already done all the accelerated aging tests etc. There have been so many battery improvement claims over the years and they haven't fallen for any of them. No reason to think they'll start now.

 

[MartinAustin]

If Maxwell is all that people think it is, I wonder why they were unable to attract interest from another potential buyer? Supposedly they shopped themselves around but others weren't interested.

I was thinking exactly the same thing. When Tesla, who aren't exactly awash in cash, announce to buy the entire company (and not just enter into an exclusive contract with them, or just a regular contract, or buy a part of the company), you gotta wonder why the world's leading company in battery-based products is so interested in Maxwell. But it seemed like no-one else understood the tech. (their loss)

Nice to see TSLA up $5 today... the day after I jumped in and bought. I wonder if yesterday was the bottom. (not trying to jinx it)

 

[EVNow]

Every major auto manufacturer has outsourced some engines. Some much more than others, but every one has had at least some badge-engineered models. This would be a very long post we’re i to attempt a comprehensive list. Both engines and transmissions are the subjects of JV or outsourced engines.
Examples include: the Mercedes M274, built by Nissan and also used in an Infiniti Q50. The BMW/PSA joint 4 cylinder engine. In diesels joint ventures and pure outsourcing have been very common.

Yes, new engine design has become so expensive, they are cost sharing. But this is generally not what some people might think of when we say "outsourcing". Merc is not getting their engine from an unknown Chinese company. Neither is BMW. Magna is probably the only company that doesn't make branded cars themselves but supplies high value parts and assemblies to a lot of OEMs.

 

[Off Shore]

Most Americans don't know Tesla is a company that makes electric cars.

Most people under 35 that live in cities on West Coast,Northeast,and Florida know Tesla is a company that makes electric cars. In these areas Tesla also has good awareness among people under 60.

Most new cars are purchased by people over 35.

From Idaho to Georgia and from Minnesota to Louisiana Tesla could use a brand awareness boost.

Tesla doesn't need more demand for $40k Model 3s but it could use more demand for $60k Model 3s in the USA. More demand for long range and performance Model S would also be helpful.

Tesla doesn't need to boost brand awareness from people that live on Youtube or listen to NPR.

Tesla could use a boost to brand awareness among people who live the NFL and participate in NFL Fantasy Leagues. And their high Holy Day is Super Bowl Sunday, watching the Super Bowl on TV is a religious obligation.

You should add that every person in the world under 16 years old knows all about Teslas, for some reason. /s

 

[Buckminster]

New Robotaxi thread to tempt your conversations away from here:

plus:
Speculation: Gen4 will be a robotaxi for under $30k

Maxwell chat here:

Lidar chitter chat - no thread - please refer to:

 

[EVNow]

On the question of wave - a quick look at SR/SR+ waiting line thread shows continuous delivery in US/Canada. There have also been 6 ships sent to EU(2)/Asia(4).

So, it does look like they are serious about unwinding the wave. We'll have to see how many ships they send in June. That would really tell us whether Tesla is 100% committed to unwinding the wave (at least this quarter).

Tesla Carriers

 

[Krugerrand]

I think that was his point.

To be fair, some people do have that update. Just not the public at large.

 

[SPadival]

If Maxwell is all that people think it is, I wonder why they were unable to attract interest from another potential buyer? Supposedly they shopped themselves around but others weren't interested.

Have a look around and see who else has a Gigafactory laying about to scale the technology almost immediately.

 

[SPadival]

However, it's not bullish in the sense that it shows the massive amounts of money that is being plowed into the autonomous transport market and software companies can easily, relatively speaking, pivot and ditch Lidar and go purely vision.

You were probably sitting maybe 20 feet away from Karpathy and seemingly have missed the most important point he made.

Vision needs data - large amounts of real world, diverse and annotated data. You need to spend large amounts of money or be a connected car company to collect that data. It will be incredibly hard to pivot.

 

[Tenable]

What to do with these options... sitting on massive losses right now

View attachment 407545

My account looks quite similar. I've been asking myself the same question sadly.

 

[AcesDealt]

@kbM3 @EVNow @AcesDealt @davecolene0606 @bdy0627 @hacer - I was wrong, you guys were right regarding this.

I just got confirmation directly from Tesla regarding the following.

Me: [In response to $38k robotaxi mentioned in Autonomy Day and cap raise call] Is it safe to assume that current production cost of a base Model 3 is about $38k?

Tesla: Nope, the cost is lower. $38k would be the cost of a custom built robotaxi, with a battery pack that can last for a million miles, etc.

I'm capable of doing math and looking at the 1st quarter financial statement and the model 3 comes out to about 45k$ average per unit. That's the cost of all sold model 3s, but if you look at the suite of upgrades you can clearly see that most of them do not cost much.

Tesla continues to make a fool of all the people that are the best allies by not just giving the goddamn ****ing truth. It's so annoying.

 

[Tslynk67]

6.5 million isn’t particularly low... sure, it’s not record highs or anything, but low is usually more like 4 million.

I'd say it's encouraging to get a bounce on low volume as it's easier for Shorty & Co to suppress any gains.

 

[Alphacrux]

My account looks quite similar. I've been asking myself the same question sadly.

Sell some short-term calls if you are long any stock? It won’t help a lot unless you own a lot of common.

 

[EVNow]

You were probably sitting maybe 20 feet away from Karpathy and seemingly have missed the most important point he made.

Vision needs data - large amounts of real world, diverse and annotated data. You need to spend large amounts of money or be a connected car company to collect that data. It will be incredibly hard to pivot.

I’m surprised why nobody is trying this.

Get a lot of cars with sensors and give them for free to drivers to run on Lyft/Uber. Let the drivers keep the money. Number of cars they can get on road is only limited to number of cars they can convert and how much they want to invest.

 

[Tslynk67]

2. The timing of implementing the new tech. I've seen some outrageous assumptions that Y will have MXWL tech in batteries when it starts production, but seriously...

I have a close friend, graduated in chemistry studying batteries and then for the last 20 years has managed over 200 research projects for the EC, some of which were the amongst the first Li-ion battery projects. In his experience, a technology development cycle is 6-10 years in this field and he reckons it's 2-3 years from here that Tesla could advance to (what he terms) TRL - technology readiness level.

Now I'd add that he's very pessimistic on timescales and on Tesla in general, he just doesn't believe that battery packs have enough charge cycles to be viable and that Tesla are somehow gaming the system to show such good degradation over time.

I suppose it all depends ho far the joint research between Tesla and Maxwell has progressed. We have no idea on this. Maybe they have actually working batteries, maybe they just have something in the lab still - too many unknowns I think. But it's fanciful IMO to hope they will begin the MY, at least at the beginning. Roadster looks like the first potential candidate, low volume, easier and cheaper to remedy any issues seen in the wild.

 

[Remus]

You were probably sitting maybe 20 feet away from Karpathy and seemingly have missed the most important point he made.

Vision needs data - large amounts of real world, diverse and annotated data. You need to spend large amounts of money or be a connected car company to collect that data. It will be incredibly hard to pivot.

Well, it's very easy to pivot, but it's a long road after that