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On the question of wave - a quick look at SR/SR+ waiting line thread shows continuous delivery in US/Canada. There have also been 6 ships sent to EU(2)/Asia(4).

So, it does look like they are serious about unwinding the wave. We'll have to see how many ships they send in June. That would really tell us whether Tesla is 100% committed to unwinding the wave (at least this quarter).

Tesla Carriers
One more thing. From 4/17 there is a ship departing SF every 5/6 days. If they are sending 50% of what they are making and if they’re sending 2,500 to 3,000 per ship, we get to about 6k per wk of production.

Now we just need some information about S+X. Otherwise we are headed for better 3 delivery numbers but flat S+X.
 
he just doesn't believe that battery packs have enough charge cycles to be viable and that Tesla are somehow gaming the system to show such good degradation over time.

Not possible. Cell energy original spec is known. Count of cells in pack is known. It would be possible to fake the onscreen readout of energy/range, but you can’t fake actual range. Owners would know if the car stopped short.
 
It's pretty simple what the problem is with Tesla. A few years ago they claimed the model 3 would end up averaging a 42k$ ASP and have a 25% margin, which implies a 31k$ cost to build. Here we are in 2019 and the ASP is about 52k$ and an average cost to build is 45k$. If you walk down the cost to build from average to basic you don't go below 38k$ by any reasonable estimate. The SR+ might count for a +1 sale (good job Tesla!) but not have much contribution to profit. Meanwhile you get people like EVNow who spend inordinate amount of time here acting like they know something but for some reason can't level up and do actual math. Be careful. Draw your own conclusions.

I think Tesla can win but this is far more difficult a situation than I hoped for.
 
Piecing some thoughts on Tesla manufacturing.

Q1 showed M3 margins maintaining at 20% despite multiple price cuts and releasing the much cheaper SR+. This shows remarkable cost reduction that happened from Q4 2018 to Q1 2019 to be able to maintain 20% GM with a fairly significant ASP hit.

We know from Elon that battery production has been the main constraint on Model 3 production for nearly a year.

So if I were Elon, chances are I would know that battery production would be a bottleneck for some time. If battery production can't be solved quickly, the logical action to do would be optimize the heck out of the production line to reduce costs. While that hurts in the short term, it is a very beneficial move in the long term because future Gigafactories would have copies of the current production line. This is way better than trying to make changes across all factories later on. The cost efficiencies have obvious benefits with the huge growth rates in manufacturing that Tesla wants to achieve.

What concerns me greatly is that battery bottlenecks have been bottlenecks for *this* long. I also think Tesla at this point may be overly optimizing cost in a detrimental way. There have been rumors on negotiation tactics on battery supply for Model S/X. I would argue that obtaining sufficient battery supply is much more important than getting a slightly lower price on batteries. Yes, I do understand how important battery pricing is, but I believe manufacturing more cars is more important right now as it will break Tesla out of the breakeven range and into the cash printing range.

Tesla is also no longer including the 14-50 NEMA adapter and USB cables in the Model 3. While I understand the 14-50 NEMA adapter is probably seldomly used, no longer including USB cables is just a dumb decision that creates negative PR and customer experience that far outweighs the savings.

The battery production is by far the most concerning to me. If Panasonic can't supply Tesla enough batteries now, how will they supply 50% more batteries within 6 months when GF3, Model Y, and Semi production starts? This reminds me of the early Model 3 production days where Panasonic slowed their battery production growth because of the Model 3 production delays. What Tesla clearly should have done is stockpile batteries because that's their primary constraint. I don't know why Tesla isn't doing everything it can to increase battery production, including just accepting a slightly higher cost on batteries. The fact is, Panasonic can double their output tomorrow, and Tesla will still be able to use every cell Panasonic produces. There might be some initial stockpiling, but that stockpile will quickly diminish as Tesla now as the cash to expedite battery hungry products like the Semi, Model Y, Powerwall, and of course, the Model 3.

Oh and one more thing, where is the Europe Gigafactory? This is super important to Tesla's manufacturing growth rate. Getting a factory up and running won't be anywhere near as fast as China with thousands of 24/7 workers with full government backing. I really hope I'm right in my speculation that Tesla will ask for manufacturing space instead of cash when they sell their EV credits to German automakers. That's currently the only way I can see Tesla getting a Europe Gigafactory up and running in a reasonable timeframe.
 
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I’m surprised why nobody is trying this.

Get a lot of cars with sensors and give them for free to drivers to run on Lyft/Uber. Let the drivers keep the money. Number of cars they can get on road is only limited to number of cars they can convert and how much they want to invest.
Equipping cars that collect 360 video and car speed, steering, acceleration and braking input, and uploading all those data reliability is hard, and you have to pay wireless carrier.

We haven't got into Tesla's secret source: an onboard computer that does data filtering and some labelling, all by its own.

Good luck manually digging through those data you collected.
 
What concerns me greatly is that battery bottlenecks have been bottlenecks for *this* long.

What does this say about the problem of battery production and scaling of it?
It is what it is, for Panasonic, LG Chem, SKI, et. al.

Good luck with millions of EV from nonTesla manufacturers...
 
Let me toss out an idea that is likely to be quite unpopular: train FSD to do police work.

Tesla sets up pilot projects with police departments and other law enforcement. Model 3 are fully equipped to be patrol cars, but FSD rides along to learn. Officers are trained on how to work with FSD system to capture information. For example, when an officer pulls over a car, FSD learn why the car was pulled over, year, make, model, color, and any other pertinent descriptors.

Suppose for example, an officer pulls someone over for suspected DUI. Data around this is captured. The NN can then learn what sort of driving behavior lead the officer to suspect DUI. If the DUI is confirmed, this too can help the NN differentiate between suspected and actual DUI driving behavior. For other examples, an officer pulls over a vehicle because it is driven recklessly, a tail light is not working, or a load is not properly secured to vehicle. Again the NN learns to recognize all of these situations.

So first point here is the police patrol work can train the NN to recognize all sorts of edge cases and road hazards. But it gets creeper. What the NN learns can eventually support police work. For example, being able to spot reckless or drunk driving, FSD Cop's Version can objectively score driver, document their behavior, and capture identifying features. In FSD patrol mode, the police officer can cede most of the driving to the vehicle focus on observing conditions and behavior. When an officer must pull over a driver, the vehicle also is there to observe as back up. In an extreme case where an officer is shot, FSD would be trained to recognize this, call for help, and capture evidence. In the case of policy pursuit, the vehicles can track the target vehicle and share information with other vehicles in the area, so that the police cars work seamlessly as a team to follow a suspect. Persons, vehicles and other objects that the police are searching for can be identified by FSD Cop's Version.

As a third point, building a strong relationship with local law enforcement can help local politicians to form a positive view of autonomous vehicles. So these pilot programs pave the way for favorable local policies. Law enforcement becomes comfortable with the new technology and understands the how that technology can make the streets much safer.

A fourth point, getting dangerous drivers out of the driver's seat is one of the ways autonomous vehicles can improve safety and avoid getting into collisions. Obviously we'd want FSD to know how to avoid drunk drivers. Helping the police get drunk drivers off the road is the next logical step.

And the final point is that there will be a market for this sort of thing: Police Robocars. Many cities have security camera that support police work. Integrating that in patrol cars would be a next logical step. So long as all this is pretty much inevitable, Tesla may as well position FSD well for this market.


Fire away!
 
Let me toss out an idea that is likely to be quite unpopular: train FSD to do police work.

Tesla sets up pilot projects with police departments and other law enforcement. Model 3 are fully equipped to be patrol cars, but FSD rides along to learn. Officers are trained on how to work with FSD system to capture information. For example, when an officer pulls over a car, FSD learn why the car was pulled over, year, make, model, color, and any other pertinent descriptors.

Suppose for example, an officer pulls someone over for suspected DUI. Data around this is captured. The NN can then learn what sort of driving behavior lead the officer to suspect DUI. If the DUI is confirmed, this too can help the NN differentiate between suspected and actual DUI driving behavior. For other examples, an officer pulls over a vehicle because it is driven recklessly, a tail light is not working, or a load is not properly secured to vehicle. Again the NN learns to recognize all of these situations.

So first point here is the police patrol work can train the NN to recognize all sorts of edge cases and road hazards. But it gets creeper. What the NN learns can eventually support police work. For example, being able to spot reckless or drunk driving, FSD Cop's Version can objectively score driver, document their behavior, and capture identifying features. In FSD patrol mode, the police officer can cede most of the driving to the vehicle focus on observing conditions and behavior. When an officer must pull over a driver, the vehicle also is there to observe as back up. In an extreme case where an officer is shot, FSD would be trained to recognize this, call for help, and capture evidence. In the case of policy pursuit, the vehicles can track the target vehicle and share information with other vehicles in the area, so that the police cars work seamlessly as a team to follow a suspect. Persons, vehicles and other objects that the police are searching for can be identified by FSD Cop's Version.

As a third point, building a strong relationship with local law enforcement can help local politicians to form a positive view of autonomous vehicles. So these pilot programs pave the way for favorable local policies. Law enforcement becomes comfortable with the new technology and understands the how that technology can make the streets much safer.

A fourth point, getting dangerous drivers out of the driver's seat is one of the ways autonomous vehicles can improve safety and avoid getting into collisions. Obviously we'd want FSD to know how to avoid drunk drivers. Helping the police get drunk drivers off the road is the next logical step.

And the final point is that there will be a market for this sort of thing: Police Robocars. Many cities have security camera that support police work. Integrating that in patrol cars would be a next logical step. So long as all this is pretty much inevitable, Tesla may as well position FSD well for this market.


Fire away!

I didn't read past the first sentence because even if true and useful for police work it's an order of magnitude less important than the overall thesis, much like solar roofs and battery storage.
 
What does this say about the problem of battery production and scaling of it?
It is what it is, for Panasonic, LG Chem, SKI, et. al.

Good luck with millions of EV from nonTesla manufacturers...

Sure, it'll be really hard for other battery makers, but I currently care about Tesla, and how well they can get their battery supply. It would be naive to think the upcoming battery shortages (with increased battery prices) are not going to affect Tesla, especially if they're aiming for >50% growth rates
 
I didn't read past the first sentence because even if true and useful for police work it's an order of magnitude less important than the overall thesis, much like solar roofs and battery storage.
Wow, you just hurt my feelings. Go back and read it, every damn word.

I forget to mention as a bonus this program could train FSD to follow police instructions, like how to interpret gestures when police are directing traffic.
 
The biggest problem with Q1 isn't the model 3 it was the S/X. Most of the financial damage is from S/X collapse. Here we are in Q2 and the only data we have on sales for S/X is norway and netherlands and both of them are GODAWFUL.

I'm nervous as f'''''''''

It doesn't help that Elon is claiming robotaxi timelines that are impossible. I have a lot of complaints about Neroden, because he for no logical reason thinks buying solarcity was a good idea, but he is perfectly spot on when he talks about autopilot. I was writing deep learning code 10 years ago. I know far better than rationalizing robots like FC don't. The lidar v. vision subject is dead. Tesla wins that. The subject of planning and logic is not solved. Tesla has no idea and is nowhere close to solving that.
 
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EV Sales: Sweden April 2019
 
The biggest problem with Q1 isn't the model 3 it was the S/X. Most of the financial damage is from S/X collapse. Here we are in Q2 and the only data we have on sales for S/X is norway and netherlands and both of them are GODAWFUL.

I'm nervous as f'''''''''

It doesn't help that Elon is claiming robotaxi timelines that are impossible. I have a lot of complaints about Neroden, because he for no logical reason thinks buying solarcity was a good idea, but he is perfectly spot on when he talks about autopilot. I was writing deep learning code 10 years ago. I know far better than rationalizing robots like FC don't. The lidar v. vision subject is dead. Tesla wins that. The subject of planning and logic is not solved. Tesla has no idea and is nowhere close to solving that.
I never figured out why Tesla is so afraid of raising additional capital. This last round seemed to go well. People are lining up to throw money at them. They should never have put themselves in this position to begin with.

But if S/X sales do not recover ever, there is no hope for return to profitability in 2019. The wait for profitability will probably be until Shanghai ramps and Model Y goes for sale in 2020. Who knows where the SP will be by then but I'm not holding my breath at this point.
 
The biggest problem with Q1 isn't the model 3 it was the S/X. Most of the financial damage is from S/X collapse. Here we are in Q2 and the only data we have on sales for S/X is norway and netherlands and both of them are GODAWFUL.

I'm nervous as f'''''''''

It doesn't help that Elon is claiming robotaxi timelines that are impossible. I have a lot of complaints about Neroden, because he for no logical reason thinks buying solarcity was a good idea, but he is perfectly spot on when he talks about autopilot. I was writing deep learning code 10 years ago. I know far better than rationalizing robots like FC don't. The lidar v. vision subject is dead. Tesla wins that. The subject of planning and logic is not solved. Tesla has no idea and is nowhere close to solving that.

Why are you basing your feelings on data from 2 tiny countries? How will sales be in the other European countries?
I think if you are nervous then hedge. Canada sales seem robust.
Robotaxi timeline is meaningless at this time.
 
Given all this, anybody thinks 1.5 years is enough to put a tech from the powerpoint into the real batteries? I'm thinking 4-5 years would be a moderate expectation

It's likely the tech will be implemented in stages. The wording in Maxwell's presentation said they can produce a cell at 300wh/g with a path to 500. It may be possible to scale the simplest parts of the tech in a relatively short period of time with the more advanced parts taking longer.
 
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It's pretty simple what the problem is with Tesla. A few years ago they claimed the model 3 would end up averaging a 42k$ ASP and have a 25% margin, which implies a 31k$ cost to build. Here we are in 2019 and the ASP is about 52k$ and an average cost to build is 45k$. If you walk down the cost to build from average to basic you don't go below 38k$ by any reasonable estimate. The SR+ might count for a +1 sale (good job Tesla!) but not have much contribution to profit. Meanwhile you get people like EVNow who spend inordinate amount of time here acting like they know something but for some reason can't level up and do actual math. Be careful. Draw your own conclusions.

I think Tesla can win but this is far more difficult a situation than I hoped for.
Tell the truth - are you a short seller? smells fishy