Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Reciprocity]

Trudeau didn’t come into power until well after the Canadian dollar fell. Well after.

It's called a joke. Try it sometime.

 

[KarenRei]

It's called a joke. Try it sometime.

Okay, a Model S drives into a bar. The bartender says, "So why the long face?" And the Model S says, "I was manufactured before April 2016."

So a Tesla drives into a bar, because it has an earlier version of AP and the sensors didn't detect it.

So a Tesla drives into a bar and orders a martini. The bartender starts making it. A second Tesla rolls up and orders a martini. The bartender starts making it, but really slowly until the first Tesla leaves. The second Tesla complains; the bartender apologizes and says that they'll be upgrading to V3 soon.

So a Tesla drives into a bar, which is great, but the bar had expected it months earlier than it actually arrived.

So a Tesla drives into a bar. Everyone starts making bets that it won't pay its tab, and that any day now Porsche is going to do a much better job driving into the bar, just you wait!

So a Tesla drives into a bar and multiple bartenders come running up to the Tesla and say, “Can we get you a drink? It’s the end of the shift and the premixed martinis have huge discounts!”

So a Tesla drives into a bar, and the SEC sues Elon Musk because he tweeted that it drove into a pub rather than a bar.

So a German Tesla drives into a bar, so the bar's owner modifies the door to be just four centimeters too small for it.

So a Chinese Tesla drives into a parking space in a muddy field, and moments later it's transformed into a fully-operational bar.

So a Tesla is serving drinks at a bar. A customer comes in and orders a lager. "That'll be $5." The man pulls out his wallet, and starts taking out cash, but the Tesla interrupts, "That'll be $6." The man starts taking out more money. "No, it's now $4.50 and it's gotta be a pilsner rather than a lager. Wait, it changed again..."

----

Okay, and one not related to Tesla.

A woman is sitting in a chair at her husband's funeral. The man sitting next to her puts his hand on her shoulder and quietly asks, "Do you mind if I say a word?" She replies, "Not at all, go ahead." The man stands up, clears his throat, and says, "Plethora," then sits down. "Thank you," the woman says, "that means a lot."

 

[Reciprocity]

Okay, a Model S drives into a bar. The bartender says, "So why the long face?" And the Model S says, "I was manufactured before April 2016."

So a Tesla drives into a bar, because it has an earlier version of AP and the sensors didn't detect it.

So a Tesla drives into a bar and orders a martini. The bartender starts making it. A second Tesla rolls up and orders a martini. The bartender starts making it, but really slowly until the first Tesla leaves. The second Tesla complains; the bartender apologizes and says that they'll be upgrading to V3 service soon.

So an American Tesla drives into a bar, and the bartender barks, "We don't serve your kind!". Sure enough, they only had CCS mugs.

So a Tesla drives into a bar, which is great, but the bar had expected it months earlier than it actually arrived.

So a Tesla drives into a bar. Everyone starts making bets that it won't pay its tab, and that any day now Porsche is going to do a much better job driving into the bar, just you wait!

So a Tesla drives into a bar and multiple bartenders come running up to the Tesla and says, “Can we get you a drink? It’s the end of the shift and the premixed martinis have huge discounts!”

So a Tesla drives into a bar, and the SEC sues Elon Musk because he tweeted that it drove into a pub rather than a bar.

Be honest, how long have to been waiting for a chance to use those jokes?

 

[KarenRei]

Be honest, how long have to been waiting for a chance to use those jokes?

Some of them I wrote ages ago, some are new But hey, you gave me an excuse!

 

[neroden]

I put all of that data plus Q3 2016 in a spreadsheet and came out with....basically randomness. I don't really see anything helpful from it. It may go up, down, or sideways this time as it has in the past. Having said that, the market is obviously forward looking. Deliveries were disappointing in Q1 causing everyone to lower financial estimates. Only way I see this ER causing a big drop is if it is actually much worse than everyone thought. Chance of a negative surprise seems pretty low. Chance of a positive surprise seems low. CC will be important as usual. Market is forward looking. If what Elon says indicates production and deliveries getting back on track soon with 2H profitable then there may actually be a climb from this ER. Given the negative expectations, I don't have much fear going into this one.

Conclusion: market mostly does not react to earnings. Good to know.

 

[jbcarioca]

This is backwards. Vehicles maintaining more space decreases congestion, not increasing it.
... If you can significantly reduce the rate of freeway accidents, making them safer, then you can also increase the maximum freeway speeds.

Yes!!!
I have been searching my ancient files for a study I was peripherally involved with in the early 1980’s that was done by a team led by SRI (née: Stanford Research Institute) and Lawrence Livermore Laboratories. The study had physicists (fluid dynamics specialists), a Mathematical Biophysicist (Nicholas Rashevsky protege-As I recall) and an array of other disciplines. Multi-discipline everything was all the rage then, so even I was allowed to be there.

The board conclusions I remember clearly even though I don’t have all the paper.
Fluid dynamics explains auto traffic in nearly every case. High speeds without accidents are entirely possible, so long as there is minimal speed variation between ‘lanes’, nor movement between lanes. However, even a slight perturbation at high speed destroys smooth flow and causes accidents.

OK, obvious. But..

Slightly lower speeds, but with rigid speed stability, allows faster throughput without major risk. Further, reducing available locations for ingress increase stability as does increasing locations for exit. The entry/exit dichotomy was ruled true, but largely unexecutable. Parenthetically, there are a few highways designed with that in mind. They are almost all in formerly rural areas that have parallel access roads with more exit than entry options, but all designed to allow matching speeds to prevailing streams on access roads. There are a handful in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, some in various parts of Europe, China and probably elsewhere.

If FSD actually becomes practical, and fast acceleration becomes the norm it would be quite easy to optimize highways for very fast and efficient very close interval traffic. That is transparently the plan for Tesla Semi. It also already works in many parts of the world for dedicated bus routes. FSD can effectively deliver an exceedingly efficient, yet private, transportation system.

That has been the stuff of futurologists for decades. Will TSLA help make that happen? Obviously! Can we expect to make positive investments from this?
I hope so, enough so that I bet on it. Enough that I pay for the fantasy of FSD because the possibility of a positive outcome makes the expected value far greater than the actual cash outlay.

 

[neroden]

Elon made a lot of predictions in the past 15 years. Based on my observation, most of his promises and predictions materialize in the end. Though many of them are late than originally predicted. Name one he said he will do, but in the end he said sorry, we can't do it.

There were 3 instances I thought for sure he would fail, but turns out I was wrong: reuse rocket, Model X falcon door, building 100% Tesla owned factory in China.

I don't remember when he first predicted FSD. I remember he said to achieve FSD in 2 years, after another year people can sleep in the back. I'm sure it has been late than originally predicted, if it's achieved next year, the delay is not too bad from my point of view. Considering how difficult FSD is, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes longer.

Battery swap, original Model S pricing, storage of thousands of songs on the car computer, app dev kit for the car computer, vanity mirrors retrofitted on Model S, 10k cars per week from Fremont, lots of unfulfilled claims. People just foget them. Oh, I know there were excuses for all of these,usually good ones, The point is that Musk does often notdeliver what he claims. He is very optimistic. He also changes strategy often. Forward looking statements should be discounted heavily. As always.

 

[brian45011]

The GHG contract with FCA (yes, Tesla's GHG credit deal is also with FCA,

Do you have a link/source for the FCA GHG contract? Do you know anything about sales of CAFE credits?

 

[neroden]

I concur, so what's the smart play for some small gains on the stock next week? (Scary thought... this is well known and so people sell ahead of the fraudulent news, in turn causing even more damage... until the big pop.)
My strategy is unchanged. ~80% hold, and play the rest. But I blew all my powder recently (all in). So sell a few after Autonomy Day or just before?
I think DocZ is just warming up with mention of the 2016 video. Bet that will be the hit piece "No better after 3 yrs"
Do these people even have kids?

Short term play? Delta neutral options trade which benefits from falling volatility. Of course, volatility could rise instead but it usually falls after a couple of weeks after announcements.

 

[davecolene0606]

Yesterday, at a stop light, a bus turned right in front of me into my lane and expected me to back up. Luckily there was nobody behind me. Then there is the crazy mess I went through in a parking lot with illegally parked cars, cars stopped with blinkers on, a lane too narrow for two way traffic (with two way traffic)... And the other parking lot which combined this with a blind corner and cars making K turns to reach gas pumps. Plus the pedestrians of course. All in one day...

Full self driving everywhere is a fantasy. It will never, ever, ever happen. Not with humans on the road, and humans will always be on the road, except possibly on freeways.

“If man were meant to fly, he’d have wings”

Neroden, really, I am surprised at that kind of a categorical statement from you. “Never, ever, ever” statements have proven to be characteristically Luddite so many times. I get it that the scenario you describe is about infinite variations, but, if a person can figure it out, sufficient AI surely could best it.

You write with a sufficient level of credibility so as to add large amounts of useful thinking. Lighten up a bit man, sooner or later they’ll get around to fixin the USB music thing.

Fire Away!

 

[neroden]

I just read something on reddit, but can't figure out how to link it here. Help?

Under r/teslamotors, "Interesting insight on the state of autonomy from the founder of Creative Destruction Labs and AI Expert" Starts out pessimistic, but read what the guru says deeper in! 12 hrs ago now.

Paraphrasing... Basically, on FSD, first to the data owns it ALL just like Google owns the search engine. Between Waymo and Tesla, Tesla likely wins. "Waymo's approach is limited both in use cases and volume of data." There is more...

Now I get why this is game, set, match - as Musk puts it. Very clear why. This is a must read, (especially for DocZ).

Definitely holding until after Apr 22. Next week, 300+ (barring fraudulent stories).

He is not wrong. While I do not believe full everywhere all conditions level 5 FSD is possible, the fact is that "partial self driving" also depends on the best dataset, and Tesla has an uncatchable lead.

I should emphasize that what is never happening is "everywhere, all conditions, any time, sleep in your car". Nobody will ever implement all the corner cases. It is not commercially worthwhile. Perhaos there will be "Manual driving past this point" signs.

Freeway entrance to exit good weather self driving could be revealed on the 22nd, by contrast.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

On the face of this it seems that the role of Robyn Denholm at Tesla is acting as a close analogue to that of Lynn Shotwell at SpaceX. Both are highly regarded as adept corporate leaders, with the atypical strength of forcefulness coupled with an apparent calm assurance that ends out being a positive influence on a less calm person supplying innovation and :’impossible’ goals./QUOTE]

Just an FYI...it's Gwynn Shotwell at SpaceX, not Lynn.

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Okay, a Model S drives into a bar. The bartender says, "So why the long face?" And the Model S says, "I was manufactured before April 2016."

So a Tesla drives into a bar, because it has an earlier version of AP and the sensors didn't detect it.

So a Tesla drives into a bar and orders a martini. The bartender starts making it. A second Tesla rolls up and orders a martini. The bartender starts making it, but really slowly until the first Tesla leaves. The second Tesla complains; the bartender apologizes and says that they'll be upgrading to V3 soon.

So a Tesla drives into a bar, which is great, but the bar had expected it months earlier than it actually arrived.

So a Tesla drives into a bar. Everyone starts making bets that it won't pay its tab, and that any day now Porsche is going to do a much better job driving into the bar, just you wait!

So a Tesla drives into a bar and multiple bartenders come running up to the Tesla and say, “Can we get you a drink? It’s the end of the shift and the premixed martinis have huge discounts!”

So a Tesla drives into a bar, and the SEC sues Elon Musk because he tweeted that it drove into a pub rather than a bar.

So a German Tesla drives into a bar, so the bar's owner modifies the door to be just four centimeters too small for it.

So a Chinese Tesla drives into a parking space in a muddy field, and moments later it's transformed into a fully-operational bar.

So a Tesla is serving drinks at a bar. A customer comes in and orders a lager. "That'll be $5." The man pulls out his wallet, and starts taking out cash, but the Tesla interrupts, "That'll be $6." The man starts taking out more money. "No, it's now $4.50 and it's gotta be a pilsner rather than a lager. Wait, it changed again..."

----

Okay, and one not related to Tesla.

A woman is sitting in a chair at her husband's funeral. The man sitting next to her puts his hand on her shoulder and quietly asks, "Do you mind if I say a word?" She replies, "Not at all, go ahead." The man stands up, clears his throat, and says, "Plethora," then sits down. "Thank you," the woman says, "that means a lot."

OK...not a bot. lol!

Dan

 

[KarenRei]

OK...not a bot. lol!

Dan

You never know

THE HEADLINERTRON (@HEADLINERTRON) | Twitter

 

[Buddyroe]

Battery swap, original Model S pricing, storage of thousands of songs on the car computer, app dev kit for the car computer, vanity mirrors retrofitted on Model S, 10k cars per week from Fremont, lots of unfulfilled claims. People just foget them. Oh, I know there were excuses for all of these,usually good ones, The point is that Musk does often notdeliver what he claims. He is very optimistic. He also changes strategy often. Forward looking statements should be discounted heavily. As always.

The "snake" charger.

 

[AlMc]

Interesting. I knew that Jurvetson and Gracias were Musk allies, but I wasn't aware that Buss was as well. Looks like the only "independent" person on the board who's leaving is Rice. They got rid of every Musk ally except Kimball (well, and Larry, though he's nominally independent). This, combined with the elimination of supermajority requirements, would be a massive win for institutionals and a loss for Elon (but one he's apparently accepting, since Tesla is endorsing this).

Something is surely going on behind the scenes here.

Absolutely, EM ( with Larry's help?) may have finally realized one of the main reasons institutions (ex: TRowe) basically sold out their positions were destabilizing events precipitated by EM tweets, then magnified by groups that, in some cases. baited him into those ill advised tweets.

It was great that EM tried to help we retail investors in his 'go private' attempt but for the company to realize the mission statement/grow quickly it needs the support of large (institutional) investors that might help in changing the narrative as well.

We all know that the narrative is being fought by a loose (OK, maybe some coordination) group of powerful anti Tesla forces. Surrogates on twitter can help fight the twitter FUD but ultimately we need a change in the media/WS attitude from 'sink Tesla/EM' to at least neutral Tesla/EM.

IMO, this changing over of the board is to reach out to institutional investors and to try to change the narrative.

 

[2virgule5]

“
You write with a sufficient level of credibility so as to add large amounts of useful thinking. Lighten up a bit man, sooner or later they’ll get around to fixin the USB music thing.

Fire Away!

The USB music thing will be fixed after we have FSD

 

[neroden]

Gracias leaving board?

0001564590-19-012121 | PRE 14A | Tesla, Inc.

Board member thoughts from me.

1. Yes, the board was too large.
2. Jurvetson had to go. The harrassment allegations are serious and convincing. He was adding no value at this point.
3. Rice did not understand the company. She was not invested and was sellling all her stock awards; everyone else has a core TSLA position. Also, her own company just declared Chapter 7 bankruptcy, so she is very distracted.
4. Buss and Gracias were old VC investors and maybe they want to get back to VC. The company is well out of the VC stage now and I am not sure what they add. People with experience at big company management like Denholm seem more useful. Ehrenpreis still represents VC but has much more cleantech specialization, so is more useful.

 

[lklundin]

Some other interesting info from Tesla's filing SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc.:

"The median 2018 annual total compensation of all other employees, as determined pursuant to the methodology set forth below, was $56,163."

"We determined that as of December 31, 2018, Tesla and all of our subsidiaries had 42,992 qualifying individuals (full-time, part-time and temporary employees other than Mr. Musk), of which approximately 17% were based outside of the U.S. and approximately 32% were production line employees."

WIth apologies in advance to anyone who finds this trivial I will point out that for disclosing the typical salary the above used median is vastly superior and thus fair, compared to the average salary, which is grossly distorted by the few, supposedly very high executive salaries that tend to make for an average significantly higher than the median.

 

[lklundin]

How are so many i3’s (relatively) selling?
Slashed prices/huge discounts?
It’s basically an EOL car.

Germans supporting their automotive industry...