Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

You and others linked to former SEC lawyer Thomas Gorman's opinion that Elon's $420 tweets were fine and the SEC should not have sued Elon and Tesla, and also note this recent information that two out of the five SEC commissioners voted against the settlement:

Two SEC officers objected to how Musk tweets reviewed - Optimal Money

"Two Republican officers of the Securities and Change Fee objected to a part of the safety regulator’s settlement with Tesla final 12 months that required it to nominate a lawyer to overview Elon Musk’s tweets."

"SEC commissioners Hester Peirce and Elad Roisman disagreed with the requirement that the electrical carmaker discover an “skilled” lawyer to overview tweets by senior executives and to advise the corporate on how one can obey federal securities legal guidelines."​

But @azaz is right in so far that I'm ueber-bullish about Tesla and my opinion is obviously biased by that fundamental sentiment, and I'm also not a lawyer.

So take everything I write with a healthy grain of salt: for example I was 90% certain that Elon would take Tesla private, and I was also 95% certain that Tesla would become part of the S&P 500 after a profitable Q1.

I'm 90% certain you're usually 90% correct.

 

[Tenable]

Isn’t FSD $2,000 rn if you have a Tesla? I have an AP1 car so I can’t check, but I’ve seen tons of posts on Twitter of people upgrading to FSD for $2,000

/sigh. If you purchased a car with NO software. Tesla is allowing you to get AP+FSD (by all reports) for 5k. If you purchased EAP you can get FSD for 2k. If you paid 8k, the price stands, you just paid more given the higher initial cost of the vehicle.

 

[neroden]

If you are negotiating at that level and you haven't done your due diligence on whether your partner really has the power to negotiate what they are negotiating, then it is very much your fault for being fooled by a con as old as the oldest profession in the world.

Belief in other people's honesty can indeed be considered a fault practically. It is not considered a fault legally, however.

 

[Todd Burch]

You're still not hearing me. Forget the drop in price on vehicles. If three people bought the same car for the same price in December. One chose to buy no software, the second bought EAP, the third FSD. The Tesla website states that you must buy the software prior to taking delivery or pay a premium later. If you purchased FSD prior to delivery its 8k, after delivery 11k.

In this scenario. Today the person that purchased FSD in December will have spent 8k + Tax. The person that purchased EAP will have paid 5k+ tax and is given the option to upgrade to FSD for an additional 2k+ tax. Person 2 can get FSD for 7k+ tax. Person one, that purchased nothing, can get it for 5k+ tax. All 3 paid the same price for the same car, received the same tax break. But the promise of a financial benefit for purchasing early is broken.

OK, I'll admit that you do have an argument there about the FSD part of it since it hasn't been delivered at all yet.

 

[Todd Burch]

Here's a story: In 2014 I picked up my second Model S. It was a P85. I now had the quickest Tesla. Yay.

The next day was the reveal of the P85D. Took the wind out of my sails a bit, but that's life.

 

[Papafox]

Yeah, this is the first substantial bounce since the $295 levels days ago, and I'm wondering what the trigger is.

$263.5 isn't a particularly significant technical level that I can see, macros are not swinging such levels, so this smells like some sort of hidden fundamental news being traded on - or simply short price action is exhausted?

@tivoboy or @Papafox might have a better idea.

We now tap into a secret microphone hidden is some short-selling laird..
Egor: Boss, it's gone green again!
Boss: You and Mugsy start selling fast now! Short as much as you need to and get her back in the red. Now!!
Mugsy: We keep selling but it keeps popping up green again!
Boss: Sell!!!!
Egor: Yes boss!
Mugsy: Damn, there it goes again, green!
Boss: We've got billions of funding behind us, now sell and get her in the red again. If we close green it's curtains for both of you!
Egor: Green, sheesh
Boss: Whack that mole! every time it pokes it's head up into the green, whack it with more shorting!
Egor and Mugsy (in unison): Yes boss.

 

[humbaba]

OK, I'll admit that you do have an argument there about the FSD part of it since it hasn't been delivered at all yet.

For what its worth: those who already purchased FSD were promised early adopter. Is that worth the differential? Who knows? And it will depend on the person (I'd love it, but that's me) -- but it makes sense to me as the person paid early they are given early access. Seems fair to me.

[disclaimer: as already noted, I'd love to be an early adopter so I acknowledge I have a bias -- but I believe the interpretation I offered is objective]

 

[Swampgator]

/sigh. If you purchased a car with NO software. Tesla is allowing you to get AP+FSD (by all reports) for 5k. If you purchased EAP you can get FSD for 2k. If you paid 8k, the price stands, you just paid more given the higher initial cost of the vehicle.

Yes but only until tomorrow. I agree, they should make whole the early adopters. I disagree with all of the whinning led by Fred Lambert that caused all future buyers prices to increase.

 

[anthonyj]

/sigh. If you purchased a car with NO software. Tesla is allowing you to get AP+FSD (by all reports) for 5k. If you purchased EAP you can get FSD for 2k. If you paid 8k, the price stands, you just paid more given the higher initial cost of the vehicle.

Yeah it’s screwed up, especially since they told buyers that it would go up in price after delivery. They should at the very least give you guys Tesla store credit. I don’t know.

Maybe this is Musk pulling a rabbit out of a hat in order to turn a Q1 profit. That would be a good compensation

 

[Tenable]

Here's a story: In 2014 I picked up my second Model S. It was a P85. I now had the quickest Tesla. Yay.

The next day was the reveal of the P85D. Took the wind out of my sails a bit, but that's life.

Not quite as fast as yours. I took delivery of my shiny new 85D, a blink of an eye later they started rolling out the new body style. Was I a little miffed, maybe 1% but as you say, thats life. Loved my car, did it make me complain? No, it made me invest and continue investing. I received the value I expected for my dollar and Tesla never broke any promises. This is different.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I have not complained (much) about the M3 I got my dad for Xmas being devalued or my Model S resale being destroyed. However, the pricing schedule of EAP and FSD was set to incentivize us to buy early or be punished. Please show me what early access to EAP or full self driving I have received? We early supporters are simply being overcharged and punished for giving Tesla a free loan. The least they could do is honor their promises to us or make it right.

Navigate on autopilot has been out for us for a few months now, and autosteer+ for about a year. Nothing on FSD end if you ordered that before, but we(I’m one) are supposed to get early access program invites to make up for exactly that. I *do* feel like they could do a bit more on that FSD end(say, a $1k voucher for new vehicle order or Tesla store purchase), but we aren’t getting nothing.

 

[Antares Nebula]

The SEC brief refers to Musk's tweet a dozen times, both inside and outside quotation marks. One of those references dropped a single word. There is no possible way the judge could be misled by this error, and there is no way anyone at the SEC thought they'd gain an advantage by slipping it in.

The judge will find Musk in contempt. People here are wasting way too much energy on this.

That may be true, that it was a simple and possibly minor error if it was referenced so many other times correctly, AND if they did not rely on its omission for their argument.

But even if you're correct about that, it does not then automatically follow that Musk is in contempt. There still remains the question of materiality of the tweet. I just don't see how that tweet can be considered material, given that it is well within the implied production and delivery guidance (360-600k total vehicles delivered), when taking into account both the 10k and conference call, both of which are valid sources of disseminating material public information. The stock barely moved in regard to the tweet. It is clear that most shareholders did not consider it to contain additional information.

I think it is very obvious what happened here. The SEC, in their eagerness and greed to punish Musk for thumbing his nose at them, rushed the filing, without even giving Musk/Tesla 24 hours to respond (request made late Sunday, filing Monday morning). They thought it was a slam dunk case. But in their rush, they failed to look at the conference call. Simply put, they didn't do their homework. Hence, the need for a sloppy and rambling second response by the SEC, which is extremely rare in contempt proceedings, having been caught off guard by Musk's very strong defense.

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR CAUTIONARY:
It is understandable that noticeable numbers of you are prognosticating what the outcome of the SEC v Musk case will be.
It also is understandable that the greater number of those outcomes generated preferentially focus on the Advantage: Tesla (Musk) arguments.

It is, indeed, right and proper that those data, those references, those prior rulings be brought to the attention of other participants.

HOWEVER - there has developed in this thread a self-reinforcing attitude that Tesla (Musk) therefore must prevail (once again: understandably. BUT...)

Two Cautions plus One More Thing:

1. First, consider also your own exposure to the possible real-world outcomes of this case, and what the different effects will be.

2. When you present an argument, it now is clear to me that it no longer is appropriate merely to say inter alia "IANAL". You all definitely fall under res inter alios acta.

3. Finally, consider, as a real-world example, the preponderance of lawyers currently residing in both Houses of the US Congress. Res ipsa loquitur.

 

[Intl Professor]

You guys are literally killing me. For the last hour or so I was raptly reading every post here. Very bad for my legs. At noon its time to brush my teeth, take a shower before being divorced, and get out of pajamas to walk. I get a lot of brain exercise, but "not the legs, not the legs!"

 

[Tenable]

Navigate on autopilot has been out for us for a few months now, and autosteer+ for about a year. Nothing on FSD end if you ordered that before, but we(I’m one) are supposed to get early access program invites to make up for exactly that. I *do* feel like they could do a bit more on that FSD end(say, a $1k voucher for new vehicle order or Tesla store purchase), but we aren’t getting nothing.

I think we will get into the weeds here. I would say I don't perceive much value in my car showing a straight line vs two lines on the side and suggesting I move out of the fast lane. You may argue that it exits the freeway before disengaging, but these are perceptions of value and I don't want to argue. I doubt anyone here has the power to change the situation in a meaningful way. But as an owner and an investor I find this frustrating. I love the idea of additional cash trickling onto Tesla's balance sheet. But I don't like it being done at the expense of owners. Others may disagree, that is their right.

 

[VValleyEV]

Obviously this guy wasn't paying attention to the slipping EV time-lines of most manufacturers, plus ignores the fact that Tesla have just ramped a very, very, very similar car - 75% the same, allegedly - and will use all that knowledge to bring the MY to production on time, if not earlier. Failing black-swan events, this is a given, I think.

We’ll still have to see how Elon Musk gets the Model Y to market and scale to meet demand. But as we all know Tesla can’t be bothered with revealing those pesky, logistical details like more traditional manufacturers. Tesla fans will dutifully wait for their Model Ys.

Then we get this gem, towards the end:

The only knock I can think of is the range - I observed around 220 miles per charge (Jaguar says it will get 234 miles per full charge). Not bad, but it’s one area where it would be nicer to have more juice in reserve.

So poor range is a "knock" (meaning small downside for those unfamiliar with it). Sorry, but I think you'll find that range is the single most important feature in an EV, especially for those new to such cars and 10x more for those manufacturers that don't have their own dedicated fast charging network...

One could also point out that the base spec Model 3 will have better range than this.

News Flash: a neighbor just took delivery of a red Jaguar i-Pace. I should be able to get a good look at it and some feedback, maybe even a ride. Will offer to trade test drives with my MS. And I should get some feedback as time passes on everything, including real-world range experience and availability/quality of charging network in our podunk area of north-central Arizona and surrounding states.

I admit I was obsessive about range anxiety before my MS purchase, maybe now a bit less so since most of my charging is at home, but going east and/or north from here through the deserts of NM/Utah it is a real concern. Works great with Tesla SC locations but not so sure just yet with those supporting i-Pace, in particular fast DC charging.

 

[HiTechRedneck]

People where can I direct my Texan friends to protest online the Tesla situation?

Here is a link to send emails to our state reps: Support TESLA in Texas - Auto manufacturer in U.S

Discussions about the law language are here: Senate Bill 1415 and House Bill 2940 - contact your representatives

And here:

Proposed Texas Legislation to prevent Tesla from Servicing Vehicles in the state

 

[lklundin]

The confounding element, of course, is that the head of the Saudi PIF was pretty much lying (claiming to have more money and power than he had), but that's not Elon's fault.

Although the case is settled the debate over the 420-tweet still has some relevance since it has an impact on Elon Musk's trustworthiness.

So I would stress these three points:
1) The "secured" was asserted in the context of "Considering", devaluing its significance, and
2) Elon Musk did the right thing when he made all and not just a few select investors privy to his take-private plans, and
3) the take-private plans were cancelled after an appeal from one prominent investment fund (Ark Invest), who together with many retail and international investors would be forced out of their shares by the deal.

Since the SEC was actively hurting the investors with their case, Elon Musk was forced to settle, in order to protect the investors.

It looks like it will be different this time.

 

[Tenable]

Here is a link to send emails to our state reps: Support TESLA in Texas - Auto manufacturer in U.S

Discussions about the law language are here: Senate Bill 1415 and House Bill 2940 - contact your representatives

And here:

Proposed Texas Legislation to prevent Tesla from Servicing Vehicles in the state

Thank you! Email sent!

 

[lklundin]

You and others linked to former SEC lawyer Thomas Gorman's opinion that Elon's $420 tweets were fine and the SEC should not have sued Elon and Tesla, and also note this recent information that two out of the five SEC commissioners voted against the settlement:

Two SEC officers objected to how Musk tweets reviewed - Optimal Money

"Two Republican officers of the Securities and Change Fee objected to a part of the safety regulator’s settlement with Tesla final 12 months that required it to nominate a lawyer to overview Elon Musk’s tweets."

"SEC commissioners Hester Peirce and Elad Roisman disagreed with the requirement that the electrical carmaker discover an “skilled” lawyer to overview tweets by senior executives and to advise the corporate on how one can obey federal securities legal guidelines."​

But @azaz is right in so far that I'm ueber-bullish about Tesla and my opinion is obviously biased by that fundamental sentiment, and I'm also not a lawyer.

So take everything I write with a healthy grain of salt: for example I was 90% certain that Elon would take Tesla private, and I was also 95% certain that Tesla would become part of the S&P 500 after a profitable Q1.

Can a person live in Vienna and be on the Tesla Board of Directors?