Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

Just had my *other* rear suspension control arm break spontaneously -- I'm figuring there must have been a bad batch at the factory that week or something, since practically nobody else has ever reported anything similar and I've had two break.

Maybe you're holding it wrong?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

VICKI SALVADOR‏ @VickiSalvador 15m15 minutes ago
Replying to @TriTexan @UpUpUp24223983
And by the way I was not retained And I have been advised by my attorney not to discuss the terms of my separation from Tesla until this case settles

I'm not liking this exchange, makes me wonder if it's worse than we think:

1. 斯拉 Up Up Up‏ @UpUpUp24223983 3h3 hours ago
   Replying to @VickiSalvador @TriTexan
   oh no but you can commend the morale in Tesla in general, no? a) business as usual b) panic in brewing c) complete shitshow
   
   1 reply0 retweets0 likes
   
2. 
   VICKI SALVADOR‏ @VickiSalvador 3h3 hours ago
   Several of my friends are in a panic.
   

Anyhow, getting ready to sell some puts should we venture into 270s...

 

[MartinAustin]

RE: lowered production rate... we see no reduction in worldwide demand, so this could be that they're slowly beginning production of the new battery pack, and possibly drivetrain. Watch for delivery wait times to rise. Remember that production of 100kWh packs started slowly due to the revised design.

Could be that they are going to pause production of Model S. (but not Model X, which has begun to outsell Model S) While new parts and tooling is set up. And then bring it to Model X once Model S has ramped up. Or is this idea silly? I can't believe they could revise both the range of Model S and X at the same time. That said, they impressed when they debuted Semi and Roadster on the same day. So maybe S+X simultaneously get revised. One thing is for sure, Tesla are very good at keeping improvements secret up until the last moment... speculators such as ourselves honestly have no real idea what is going to happen next. :|

Could be that revisions are more than just range. Expected arrival of Hardware 3 and FSD software in 2019 could mean a new interior (one screen, revised HVAC vents from the Model 3, improved luxury appointments). These revisions would be massive.

Meanwhile... Ford made $2billion profit inside the USA, but lost $2.8billion outside the USA, for a total Q4 loss of $780million. (compare with Tesla making $300million in Q3) If and when Tesla and Rivian etc. begin production of pickups and (as I assume) income gets taken away from Ford, they will be in a lot of trouble - unless something miraculous has happened with their product portfolio and market share worldwide. They already have huge debts... which are obviously not getting repaid.

 

[neroden]

Thanks reflexfunds for the efforts on model 3 base cost. I also have trouble figuring out where 5k$+ comes out in a manner that I'm comfortable with and will rely on management guidance and some skepticism.

Rumors I've found:
1 -- glass roof without anti-heat coating, with cloth headliner. Sounds crazy but apparently the anti-heat coating is really expensive?
2 -- new battery pack assembly design (Elon specifically mentioned this) which was supposed to come online in late Jan (so expect late Feb) which was supposed to be cheaper and faster to assemble and lighter. No recent news on this, but I doubt it's been abandoned.

 

[dmvevguy]

Adv Summon - not yet as I read it, but soon. This will be big if they can get the auto seek and park feature with sign reading functional (not just following me around). But his tweet about Tesla Sentry (camera surround security coming for EAP owners) will be nice! Didn't know that was even on the table.

Expect an ER update here along with other AI news on what to expect! Maybe a demo with Early Testers at minimum.
It's the #1 reason we got this car, with #2 being low maintenance and efficiency. FSD paid in full from day one (already worth more)!

Exactly. If we get more developments on FSD / AI / Adv Summon / Sentry --> No other car manufacturer is doing these types of things with OTA and is a huge unique competitive advantage to Tesla over the other cars -- regardless of electric or ICE!

 

[Steve m]

Twice a quarter you can count on the bears being very active. The last week of the quarter just before production and delivery numbers are released and then the week before the quarterly finances are released.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

And one more thing about Lathrop. Few days back Tesla posted this job offer Maintenance Technician, Production Facilities (Day Shift) - Lathrop | Tesla. It seems to me that it’s not job offer for the existing building which they refer to as Parts Distribution Warehouse but for the newly constructed one. They even call it Production Facility in the title and from the job description it doesn't seem like a job in a warehouse.

They might move some parts production lines out of Fremont factory (they've already done this for some things I think, isn't the seat factory in another building?). Or add new parts production lines (Semi, Y, ...). I doubt we'll see vehicle production in Lathrop though.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm not liking this exchange, makes me wonder if it's worse than we think:

1. 斯拉 Up Up Up‏ @UpUpUp24223983 3h3 hours ago
   Replying to @VickiSalvador @TriTexan
   oh no but you can commend the morale in Tesla in general, no? a) business as usual b) panic in brewing c) complete shitshow
   
   1 reply0 retweets0 likes
   
2. 
   VICKI SALVADOR‏ @VickiSalvador 3h3 hours ago
   Several of my friends are in a panic.

Anyhow, getting ready to sell some puts should we venture into 270s...

I don’t read anything into this other than individuals frightened at losing, or the prospect of losing, their jobs.

Note that Vicky later Tweeted:

I’m going to be just fine. I have already had a job offer But since my father’s passing I’m going to take a little time to spend with my mom and get over this cold I’ve had for 3 months.

Working for Tesla looks pretty good on your CV...

 

[brian45011]

An interesting question:
The colorado energy pack cost about 8M dollars for a 4 MegaW. That is 2000/kW. This is way above the car battery.
This is either extremely high margin (doubtful) or other cost dominates. Anyone knowledgable about this?

Not knowledgeable, but don't forget installation expense, including possibly land acquistion. Annual savings are likely net of O&M--no mention of adjacent solar or wind generation so likely as a co-op United buys energy to charge the PowerPacks on the wholesale markets. A cursory check of their website indicates probably a T&D/retail co-op with no captive generation.About Us | United Power Cooperative

 

[neroden]

That avoided the question, so I'll repeat it: "Are you happy about the fact that this means slowing down the expansion of the Supercharger network?"

In the US, they basically just need to build out North Dakota and declare victory. (Where's North Dakota's Superchargers, Mr. Musk?!?)

 

[jhm]

As much as all this sucks - including the appearance of Anton Wahlman for no other reason than to prod and gloat - the simple fact is that if Tesla had not engaged in this path, the outcome would be much worse. What happens to companies that do not aggressively cut costs and increase productivity to improve and increase cash flow? What happens to companies that do not realign their production output to match demand demographics?

1 Q is historically a weak quarter. It obviously will be again this year. It will most certainly be again next year. There are definitely macro issues weighing on all car companies at the moment, Tesla included. But the popular demand for EVs has not changed.

It should come as a shock to no one that the M3P sales eviscerated 75 S and X demand. The surprise would be the opposite. There is no shortage of people on this site discussing how much more they enjoy their M3 over the Model S they just ditched (this would include me). Tesla has created an amazing car in the M3. I believe they will hit the 35K model soon, and demand for it will be relentless.

I also believe that Tesla must do something to further differentiate the S and the X from the M3P, and make it painfully obvious that their flagship models are the best cars on Earth. I personally think that the 2170 battery pack integration and expansion is a must, but this is my opinion, and maybe not aligned with the best interests of cash generation. A wild card to consider is that the 2170 has been engineered to be even safer from a fire perspective that the current 18650. Tesla has never been one to shy away from eating costs to maximize safety. It is one of the ridiculous reasons that they are routinely jeered at by long time car industry veterans. Aren't humans great?

This too shall pass. Or maybe not and TSLA will go belly up and we will all die broke in the future. Except for Anton W, of course. He will be styling in the hottest and latest automobile purchased with his TSLAQ winnings. But wait! It is an EV from an OEM. How the hell did that happen?

I'd point out that as much as this sort of transformation sucks in the short term. Other OEMs are so dead frightened of it, that they would rather lose all their market share over the next 15 years than to risk cannibalizing their ICE product line. Musk is truly the most fearless CEO on the planet. This relentless struggle to innovate is exactly what makes Tesla worth investing in.

 

[neroden]

Some will say this isn’t a big deal but it says a lot about the organisational maturity (or lack of it) at Tesla.

Oh, we already knew they had no organizational maturity.

 

[BornToFly]

I'm definitely in the group that believes the 75D was eliminated because they are bringing out a 120D using the larger cells from GF1 with a new battery pack. The current 100D will get a price cut, and continue to use the old cells/packs. Stock will probably be 20+% higher one week from tomorrow than it is today. I need to look in my couch cushions for some dry powder....

 

[Krugerrand]

Some of us trade the stock and like to consider all angels that can impact the price in the long/short term. Weirdly enough, this is the place to talk exactly about that.

There’s a difference between talking about trading and pretending the horse isn’t already dead and talking to the angels.

There is no hidden angle to people being laid off that’s going to change how stock is traded; everyone on WS thinks it’s bad, you do one thing, everyone on WS thinks it’s a good thing, you do the other.

 

[reddit_tl]

I'm definitely in the group that believes the 75D was eliminated because they are bringing out a 120D using the larger cells from GF1 with a new battery pack. The current 100D will get a price cut, and continue to use the old cells/packs. Stock will probably be 20+% higher one week from tomorrow than it is today. I need to look in my couch cushions for some dry powder....

if you can find enough dry powder in couch cushions to get some TSLA, congrats!

 

[BioSehnsucht]

The whole "their margins will drop on lower volume" argument doesn't hold up well, because Tesla has just laid off the unneeded labour, and the stamping and paint hardware's depreciation will now go to the Model 3 as its production can now utilize capacity that formerly went to S/X. I suspect that with a $7-8k price cut on the 100D and P100D, and selling ~85% as many of them, they'll make as much money as they had before they got rid of the 75D.

Actually hadn't considered those shared resources recently. It's been a while since we knew what the bottlenecks were with any certainty, it could have been stamping (shared among all vehicles AFAIK?) was the bottleneck, and that a benefit of cutting the S/X 75D was freeing another bottleneck for 3 production. Or some other shared bottleneck (paint is the only one I know off the top of my head).

Depending on the margins of S/X 75D vs Model 3 variants, cutting S/X production to somewhere between 50-86% (depending on the claimed efficiency increases, and capped at 86% by cell supply) of previous output, but being all 100D and higher models, and then freeing up those shared resources for Model 3 (and thus increasing output of 3 and spreading fixed costs around more, reducing per-vehicle costs) might actually make significant inroads towards making the $35k SR comfortably profitable.

 

[Hock1]

S

imo it is more likely that 75Ds were cut because sales were slow than the other way around, waiting for ER tho

Seems like the best thing to do is wait until more parts, of what is now a puzzle, are revealed at ER. Lotta wheel-spinning going on.

 

[BornToFly]

if you can find enough dry powder in couch cushions to get some TSLA, congrats!

I do fart $1000 bills. Well, at least my spoiled kids think I do!

 

[neroden]

I was less aggressive than you with my option plays in the past, and yet I got burned pretty badly. Being here for few years, I've seen people lose everything, or a lot. Warnings usually don't work. Early on, I even warned TrendTrader007, who is a bit of a legend around here. He did really, really well in the beginning, continued pressing bets and got hurt quite badly couple of times*.

Anyhow, while I don't think it will be useful, my conscience requires me to point that this is very aggressive play, and you're amplifying short term trends; and while you can make out like a bandit, it could be very bad too. Elon doesn't care about short-term holders, and this is what your portfolio emphasizes. He really doesn't. Cost to roll will be very high, if SP is low at any date, but especially towards expiration date.
Signing out, and I'll never repeat this again (to you).

I am currently exposed to the possibility of buying a *great deal* of TSLA at effective prices around $300; I have far more than enough margin capacity, but it's definitely an aggressive play. The play Zhelko is referring to is far more aggressive.

 

[jhm]

There’s a difference between talking about trading and pretending the horse isn’t already dead and talking to the angels.

There is no hidden angle to people being laid off that’s going to change how stock is traded; everyone on WS thinks it’s bad, you do one thing, everyone on WS thinks it’s a good thing, you do the other.

Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla
Here I discuss some evidence that energy investors are reframing how they look at Tesla. Martin Tiller is now recommending buying Tesla on the cheap.