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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
battery day better be pretty effing awesome.
A proper bull vs bear debate needs a third party unbiased moderator who keeps the playing field level, e.g. allowing responses and not allowing cutting the other guy off with rude interruptions to pound the table.
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
Had an epiphany - thanks to GJ on the Rob show. It made me think that if there are folks out there that are that clueless - there's even money to be made than I originally thought.
I sold out of some non TSLA positions that had performed well, are nice names, but don't, IMHO, have the future that TSLA has.
Had another order in at 401 - but caved a few minutes ago and upped it it to 405 and got'em.
2 of my orders have hit today.
Wonder what tomorrow will look like.
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The problem with bears is that they use factual information to draw the wrong conclusions(like cherry picking EU delivery numbers, or flat revenue growth from Q2 = growth has stalled). I don't know, maybe neurolink can help them out with deductive reasoning. There must be neurons not firing correctly. And the entire world has moved on (in this case SP is 2-2.5k) and the guy still put his foot down and is convinced that the entire world must be drawing the WRONG conclusions. So weird to watch.
Edit: And 11x $TSLA bought @ $402, that's me cleared-out now...
Agree. The moderator should have a mike mute switch like on Zoom (and some way to make it visually obvious to both parties whose mike is on/off.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Perspective.
noun
per·spec·tive
/pərˈspektiv/
a particular attitude toward or way of regarding something; a point of view.
This post is aimed at the longs. If you're looking to get in and out and make a quick buck, this won't apply to you.
No one knows "how high" Tesla will go. I personally have been struggling with just how high of a market cap can be justified and what timeline is appropriate for that market cap. Are we over heated, or just pausing? I'm sure many of you longs are wondering this. HODL forever? You have to get off this train eventually don't you?
Trying to figure out what I might be able to expect from my TSLA, I just overlayed TSLA on top of AAPL, since it's another high market cap tech stock that actually makes a product. I scaled them appropriately (same scale for both market cap and time). Then I slid TSLA to the left until it met the AAPL graph putting them at the same MC, only at different dates. I think the MC vertical axis might be logarithmic, but they are the same (I pulled the data from here). For my analysis, this was 1998 for AAPL and mid 2010 for TSLA when both were about at $1.5B MC. BTW, once shifted per below, the TSLA stops in 2008, but matches AAPL's Mc from 2012. But, since 2012, AAPL has split 7:1 (2014, MC @$557B) and 4:1 (2020, MC @ 2.2T). This graph helped me slow down and take a breath and be ok with these dips. Granted these are 2 different companies at 2 different times in their growth, but there just aren't very many comparisons to use for this high MC! Now, what MC does Tesla ultimately get to? Who knows. Personally I'm comfortable with their business model and product line diversity getting them to $1T before I'd re-evaluate how high it can go. That is ~3X beyond where we are today. So, things could slow down on the long journey I'm on. I don't think it's very likely that I'll personally be a Teslaonaire, but I'm excited about the incredible growth I've seen investing in this stock. I've got lots of confidence in Musk and how he changes the world with his companies, so I feel it's low risk and my patience is well placed.
noun
per·spec·tive
/pərˈspektiv/
a particular attitude toward or way of regarding something; a point of view.
This post is aimed at the longs. If you're looking to get in and out and make a quick buck, this won't apply to you.
No one knows "how high" Tesla will go. I personally have been struggling with just how high of a market cap can be justified and what timeline is appropriate for that market cap. Are we over heated, or just pausing? I'm sure many of you longs are wondering this. HODL forever? You have to get off this train eventually don't you?
Trying to figure out what I might be able to expect from my TSLA, I just overlayed TSLA on top of AAPL, since it's another high market cap tech stock that actually makes a product. I scaled them appropriately (same scale for both market cap and time). Then I slid TSLA to the left until it met the AAPL graph putting them at the same MC, only at different dates. I think the MC vertical axis might be logarithmic, but they are the same (I pulled the data from here). For my analysis, this was 1998 for AAPL and mid 2010 for TSLA when both were about at $1.5B MC. BTW, once shifted per below, the TSLA stops in 2008, but matches AAPL's Mc from 2012. But, since 2012, AAPL has split 7:1 (2014, MC @$557B) and 4:1 (2020, MC @ 2.2T). This graph helped me slow down and take a breath and be ok with these dips. Granted these are 2 different companies at 2 different times in their growth, but there just aren't very many comparisons to use for this high MC! Now, what MC does Tesla ultimately get to? Who knows. Personally I'm comfortable with their business model and product line diversity getting them to $1T before I'd re-evaluate how high it can go. That is ~3X beyond where we are today. So, things could slow down on the long journey I'm on. I don't think it's very likely that I'll personally be a Teslaonaire, but I'm excited about the incredible growth I've seen investing in this stock. I've got lots of confidence in Musk and how he changes the world with his companies, so I feel it's low risk and my patience is well placed.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I agree. One of Rob's best strengths is being respectful and not making his guests appear foolish even when they don't have all the relevant facts. Unfortunately, he failed to keep Gordo from looking like a fool.
My August balance statement from E*Trade was pure crap. Made it look like massive losses. What is wrong with these people?Man, anybody having the troubles of the types I'm having with Fidelity? In what was supposed to be a simple clerical change to our brokerage account(multiply the shares by 5, divide the share price by 5) has turned into a nightmare! These brilliant people had managed to pull 2/3 of our shares in the brokerage account and redistribute them among our other IRA accounts, immediately triggering a margin call on a loan we had against the account! They also resurrected a dead 401k account and completely lost a cash account, with the associated cash, tied to the brokerage account.
I have to admit, it's been a very, very long time since I've used language like I did on the telephone! Now they've assured me they would have it all corrected by Friday(I spoke to them on Tuesday) but I still don't see any changes. I'm thinking I've aged about 5 yrs/day lately.
Wait until we have Gordon's facts being sent - Rob will have a follow-up guaranteed.
A bit of a shame to give Gordon the air time to spew nonsense, but I think it was enough rope so to speak. (No disrespect there, just an expression).
lafrisbee
Active Member
YEP!
If everyone would just go back to the very beginning of the video before anything gets started and just look at both their faces.
Mauer is round-eyed, relaxed, prepping. Gordon is already a wreck. He has so much "Cognitive dissonance" going on behind those glasses. He's trying to supress all the facts that do not support his statements (Note I am not calling them his believes because he does not believe what he has been paid to propose.) he's caught. He has the harder job. He has to present untruths as being truthful even though he knows they are not. That is difficult to do.
I think he put forth an admirable effort. A textbook professional attempt! Kudos Gordo! Your employer should be pleased.
smorgasbord
Active Member
Rob: Looking at the effects of the Pandemic. The best was BMW down 25%, Tesla down 5%. How can you say Tesla is losing market share?
Gordon: Because they are.
The worst part about down days are that I don't have an excuse to not do my job.
His argument that Tesla selling more EVs doesn't matter because other makers sold more too. He wants to set up EVs as some separate market (that isn't growing).
In for 15 more....can't seem to pass up a good sale.
I wonder when I get old and reclusive like @Krugerrand if I will be the type that buys random crap I see on daytime TV all day long....just because it is a good sale price
Have been buying in short term account on way down, but I admit, this hurts.
If we were at the exact same number after a relatively slow methodical grind up I would feel very differently. So much of the market is psychology. Perhaps it all is, except then you would completely ignore fundamentals which obviously is idiotic, so no not just psychology. Psychology is not what made TSLA explode this year, it was the undeniable truth of their budding dominance in multiple industries.
The S & P PR would blast the SP on a minimum five day consecutive ramp up. If it never comes life could be hard for the short term TSLA option players. Except of course, if you have puts.
How does one buy puts and then wait for 5:15pm every day LOL.
BTW, NO I do not believe my fellow TMCer's are sharks.
I love all of you!...except for few...like you over there...yeah you sharkey.
All the best!
If we were at the exact same number after a relatively slow methodical grind up I would feel very differently. So much of the market is psychology. Perhaps it all is, except then you would completely ignore fundamentals which obviously is idiotic, so no not just psychology. Psychology is not what made TSLA explode this year, it was the undeniable truth of their budding dominance in multiple industries.
The S & P PR would blast the SP on a minimum five day consecutive ramp up. If it never comes life could be hard for the short term TSLA option players. Except of course, if you have puts.
How does one buy puts and then wait for 5:15pm every day LOL.
BTW, NO I do not believe my fellow TMCer's are sharks.
I love all of you!...except for few...like you over there...yeah you sharkey.
All the best!
Dancing Lemur
Hoopy Frood
GJ: You can’t compare Tesla sales to the entire vehicle market, only to EV sales. Otherwise it’s comparing apples and oranges.
Rob: 95% of people buying a Tesla are trading in an ICE vehicle. They are literally trading apples for oranges.
Me: 911? I’d like to report a murder...
Rob: 95% of people buying a Tesla are trading in an ICE vehicle. They are literally trading apples for oranges.
Me: 911? I’d like to report a murder...
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