Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ByeByeJohnny]

I have ARKF and ARKG in my account.

Have you tried buying anymore the last couple of years? In Sweden and I assume all of EU you are unable to buy US ETFs. You can still keep and sell the ones you already owned when that change happened.

 

[heltok]

My Broker - Nordnet - don't have Baron Funds. But they do have ARK. This is in Norway.

When I try to do buy ARKK on Nordnet(in Sweden) they say:
”Pga nya regelverk från EU är det efter årsskiftet inte möjligt att köpa det här värdepappret, det går endast att sälja. Det här gäller samtliga amerikanska och kanadensiska ETF:er.”

Translation: No you can’t!

Norway not in EU making you able to buy ARKK? Dammit time for me to emigrate, if only you guys could open up the border to us Covid-19 refugees!

 

[oldTAVguy]

Tesla transitioning the world to sustainable transportation and energy is like launching a rocket which requires fuel. One of TSLA's great fuels are the shorts. It's time to use what remains of that fuel now by joining the S&P 500. Shorts have always hoped TSLA is a passing fad and would go bankwupt. Joining the S&P 500 puts those notions to rest.

But, but, we would lose the entertainment value they provide.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Northampton is more:

Removed large image of a film poster.

When I first moved here (not a native), I found it charming how a couple in their 70s walked hand in hand smiling blissfully together.

This being Northampton, it was the middle of the road cars were slowly and patiently weaving around them and fellow pedestrians at 1am and the couple and others were nicely drunk.

There's an informal traffic rule here, drinkers have right of way. Of course like any civilised country, if a car hits a pedestrian, it's the car driver's fault except in exceptional circumstances. No car-company bribery and marketing used to bring in a weird concept like "Jay Walking".

Wiki - "A campaign of ridicule directed toward the extermination of the "Jay Walker Family" was inaugurated [in Tacoma WA] today by the local automobile club. The "Jay Walker Family" according to explanations made today is numerous. It is composed of those pedestrians who cross congested streets without first looking to see if it is safe to do so. The local automobile club today adopted resolutions suggesting propaganda to be distributed all over the country to "kill off the Jay Walker Family." Automobile clubs all over the country ... will be asked to aid in exterminating "Mr. and Mrs. Jay Walker and all the little Walkers."[7]

Bold seems rather extreme.

Of course this has implications for autonomous driving, cars need to take into account time, day of week, weather and if the Saints have won. Oh and if it's payday.

 

[ggies07]

I have ARKG in my account.

I bought into ARKG at the higher end, $38, and it's now at $56.

 

[Cosmacelf]

As I wait for trading to close, I'll chime in;

I'm skeptical about the Boring Company's long term profitability. Tunnel boring can be a very challenging type of civil work (Not that landing rockets isn't) and firms in this field have historically had some major problems over a long enough horizon. The Boring Company has taken on a few, relatively short tunnels in what I suspect are not that difficult rock/soil conditions. Maybe that is the intended formula, I don't know.

I've been to the head of an operational TBM and work in the Infrastructure business. Tunnels are only taken on by a select few international firms that have the risk tolerance and experience for such things and there's a long list of those who have failed. Just a couple of months ago, a partner company pulled out of a project as they were struggling so much with rock conditions. Even the nature of these machines is unique in that they can't often be re-used and are difficult to transport - I think the LA TBM is parked off to the side?

To me, the low bid for the three person station demonstrates a lack of experience more than disruption at this point. I see very low bidders all the time and it's for one of two reasons; 1. "Buying the job" to secure work, or 2. They screwed something up in the bid. It's normally the latter.

I have complete faith in Elon and the team, but the key to this industry is not about drilling faster, it's having a sixth sense in terms of geotechnical conditions, the ability to cut through bureaucratic red tape as it concerns authorities and utility providers and manage labour/equipment effectively. I'd like to see more holistic information around how the completed projects went, and less about how they are just planning to drill faster. Again, Elon is no stranger to seemingly impossible challenges, I'm just not seeing any disruptive magic in what the Boring Company is currently doing.

I frequently see this kind of thinking WRT Elon and his companies. I have no doubt Elon or his engineers do not know all the challenges ahead of them. They didn’t at Tesla and they didn’t at SpaceX. BUT they are smarter than most people and they figured out solutions. As any VC will tell you, you don’t bet on the technology when investing, you bet on the management team. And I will bet on any company Elon heads or owns.

Btw, just one example of how Boring is different. Their tunnels are much, much smaller than traditional subway tunnels. This makes a huge difference from an engineering perspective. They are already optimizing away one tunnel boring challenge with their smaller tunnel systems (and it is a system. Their plan is to have many parallel tunnels, small cars/pods in them, flexible routing, etc.).

 

[Krugerrand]

As I wait for trading to close, I'll chime in;

I'm skeptical about the Boring Company's long term profitability. Tunnel boring can be a very challenging type of civil work (Not that landing rockets isn't) and firms in this field have historically had some major problems over a long enough horizon. The Boring Company has taken on a few, relatively short tunnels in what I suspect are not that difficult rock/soil conditions. Maybe that is the intended formula, I don't know.

I've been to the head of an operational TBM and work in the Infrastructure business. Tunnels are only taken on by a select few international firms that have the risk tolerance and experience for such things and there's a long list of those who have failed. Just a couple of months ago, a partner company pulled out of a project as they were struggling so much with rock conditions. Even the nature of these machines is unique in that they can't often be re-used and are difficult to transport - I think the LA TBM is parked off to the side?

To me, the low bid for the three person station demonstrates a lack of experience more than disruption at this point. I see very low bidders all the time and it's for one of two reasons; 1. "Buying the job" to secure work, or 2. They screwed something up in the bid. It's normally the latter.

I have complete faith in Elon and the team, but the key to this industry is not about drilling faster, it's having a sixth sense in terms of geotechnical conditions, the ability to cut through bureaucratic red tape as it concerns authorities and utility providers and manage labour/equipment effectively. I'd like to see more holistic information around how the completed projects went, and less about how they are just planning to drill faster. Again, Elon is no stranger to seemingly impossible challenges, I'm just not seeing any disruptive magic in what the Boring Company is currently doing.

Meh. Elon has experience with pretty much all this. How much more bureaucracy than NASA, military, Germany, California, China, NHTSA et al is there? How much harder can it be to build a business with a wasteland of triers like the auto industry? How much harder than starting a rocket company and sending people to the ISS?

Everybody always thinks their industry is harder than everyone else’s.

Yeah, meh. They’ll make mistakes, they’ll adjust, they’ll innovate and they’ll make all current companies look like amateurs walking backwards.

You know that all the top geologists and assorted engineers are going to want to work at The Boring Co, right?

You understand that until SpaceX came along, rocket companies were charging multiples more than SPACEX? You understand until Tesla came along, EVs were way higher priced with more complexity and less functionality?

I can go on.

 

[kanweg]

Can any Europeans advise how to invest into the Baron Funds BPTRX / BFGFX (to get into SpaceX) or ARKK / ARKQ?
My broker here said not possible to do with them.

Thx.

Happened to look for that with my broker, Flatex. They don’t show up. So, I’m looking forward whether someone else has more positive news.

 

[Curt Renz]

@Curt Renz

Reddit user __TSLA__, whom I believe is @Fact Checking , would like more context about your recent quote from Todd Rosenbluth.

It's not entirely clear from the quote whether Todd is suggesting that index funds usually get a ~7 days notice ahead of inclusion separate from the official public announcement, or whether he is referring to the public announcement itself.

Below is a portion of an email exchange on June 30. That same day I posted Todd's responses here on TMC.

Curt: When a really large company is to be added to the S&P 500, what preparations must be made by the related ETFs to cushion the costs?

Todd: Happy to help. ETFs learn typically a week before a stock enters the index and will build a position in advance of it being added formally to cushion the impact

Curt: Is an S&P 500 constituent change announcement made publicly at the same time for all, or do the concerned fund managers get advance notice?

Todd: Everyone at same time. Usually with 7 days notice.

 

[vikings123]

Meh. Elon has experience with pretty much all this. How much more bureaucracy than NASA, military, Germany, California, China, NHTSA et al is there? How much harder can it be to build a business with a wasteland of triers like the auto industry? How much harder than starting a rocket company and sending people to the ISS?

Everybody always thinks their industry is harder than everyone else’s.

Yeah, meh. They’ll make mistakes, they’ll adjust, they’ll innovate and they’ll make all current companies look like amateurs walking backwards.

You know that all the top geologists and assorted engineers ate going to want to work at The Boring Co, right?

You understand that until SpaceX came along, rocket companies were charging multiples more than SPACEX? You understand until Tesla came along, EVs were way higher priced with more complexity and less functionality?

I can go on.

You forgot the Russians. You are welcome.

 

[StealthP3D]

While it's correct that Tesla doesn't need inclusion to continue the mission, every share held by an index fund is one less floating share to short, so it's good for investors because the index funds won't sell their shares.

Are you sure index funds don't lend out their shares for extra revenue?

 

[Christine69420]

Have you tried buying anymore the last couple of years? In Sweden and I assume all of EU you are unable to buy US ETFs. You can still keep and sell the ones you already owned when that change happened.

Yes I bought both ARKF and ARKG yesterday. In an IKZ type account if that matters.

 

[StealthP3D]

I see the upward spiral thingee in that...
Cars are bought people buy stock, people buy stock cars are bought.

That definitely happens but it is dwarfed by the reality that new car buyers want to be associated with a winner. And if Tesla stock is doing great people want to be associated with that (whether they own any stock or not).

 

[dl003]

Here's a portion of an email exchange on June 30:

Curt Renz: When a really large company is to be added to the S&P 500, what preparations must be made by the related ETFs to cushion the costs?

Todd Rosenbluth: Happy to help. ETFs learn typically a week before a stock enters the index and will build a position in advance of it being added formally to cushion the impact

Curt Renz: Is an S&P 500 constituent change announcement made publicly at the same time for all, or do the concerned fund managers get advance notice?

Todd Rodenbluth: Everyone at same time. Usually with 7 days notice.

So the announcement will be a true sell the news event. Am I reading this right?

 

[Buckminster]

Recommended house rules for tonight - if I may be so bold:

1. Don't post the SP only We all have Google and no one is going to believe you when you say it is over 2k anyway
2. Don't post excerpts of the report without spending at least 1 minute constructing a summary and/or your analysis
3. Don't post quotes from the call without spending at least 1 minute constructing a summary and/or your analysis
4. Don't post unless you are up to date on the thread and can confirm nobody has posted already. This has been almost impossible on previous ER evenings but if everyone follows these rules we have a chance.

This should limit us to less than 20 pages. Anymore?

 

[MP3Mike]

Happened to look for that with my broker, Flatex. They don’t show up. So, I’m looking forward whether someone else has more positive news.

You can see details of what is available on the ARK information page: ARK's Investment Solutions - ARK Invest

So currently just this: Nikko AM ARK Disruptive Innovation Strategy

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Recommended house rules for tonight - if I may be so bold:

1. Don't post the SP only We all have Google and no one is going to believe you when you say it is over 2k anyway
2. Don't post excerpts of the report without spending at least 1 minute constructing a summary and/or your analysis
3. Don't post quotes from the call without spending at least 1 minute constructing a summary and/or your analysis
4. Don't post unless you are up to date on the thread and can confirm nobody has posted already. This has been almost impossible on previous ER evenings but if everyone follows these rules we have a chance.

This should limit us to less than 20 pages. Anymore?

5. In the event of a blowout, don't post your location, otherwise you will have 'friends and relatives' coming out of the woodworks asking you to borrow $$.

 

[Frank Einstein]

I've read that you can't invest in the ETF's from Europe.

I see ARKK on my broker app, but in the past when I tried a purchase I got an error message.

I've had no problem buying ARKK in Austria. I use Hello Bank (BNP Paribas). My most recent purchase was perhaps four months ago.

 

[capster]

I found that part interesting. Why would they operate multiple types of vehicles? The only answer I have is that they believe they are truly production constrained, which would explain the lack of the Y in there which would be a better choice overall. I'm guessing they plan to just fill in the fleet whenever they have excess inventory of 3s, Xs, S etc.

Umm, it’s, shhhh, a form of advertising. That’s why Vegas, too.
Edit: Okay, so lots of folks beat me to it.

 

[Christine69420]

When I try to do buy ARKK on Nordnet(in Sweden) they say:
”Pga nya regelverk från EU är det efter årsskiftet inte möjligt att köpa det här värdepappret, det går endast att sälja. Det här gäller samtliga amerikanska och kanadensiska ETF:er.”

Translation: No you can’t!

Norway not in EU making you able to buy ARKK? Dammit time for me to emigrate, if only you guys could open up the border to us Covid-19 refugees!

Yes, well ARKF and ARKG atleast. I don't know if it's EU limitations or what that enables me to buy these. We are a part of the EEC (EÖS?) so most things finance in EU happens to us too.