Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

Have done a quick comparison to Q1 (which produced GAAP income of $16m). Higher deliveries would indicate Q2 profit is possible, but unknown is regulatory credits, which were high in Q1 at $354m. It's gonna be close is all I will say.

View attachment 559540

With 7 weeks of furloughs and reduced pay for professionals, expenses should be down from Q1. I think profit will be over 200 million. With deliveries 8000 over production, cash flow should be positive by at least 500 million. There remains a flock of black swans out there tempering my excitement, with renewed shut downs for COVID-19, flooding in China and unlikely failure of 3 Gorges dam and a new swine flu emerging in China. In spite of it all, I think the worlds troubles will highlight Tesla’s advantages and the merging vision of failed legacy auto that the rest of the world (non TMC people) are beginning to see. I strongly believe S&P inclusion is a done deal and that profits in Q3 will be much higher as Fremont hits stride. GA5 for the Y, combined with GA4 (the tent) means daily Y production of 1000-1500. Add 3 of 1000 a day plus SX and Fremont is making over 10,000 cars a week. I’m old enough to remember when they hit 100 a week and the stock started going up from 30 a share. Shanghai appears that limited production of the MIC Y will begin in Q4 and Tesla could be close to 250,000 cars per quarter entering 2021. With Berlin and a GF5 site in the USA starting production in 2021, Tesla could hit 500,000 per quarter by the end of 2021, which is on the optimistic side, but equal to Adam Jonas prediction for 2030.
I do think with ramping that the price for the 3 and Y may come down a bit after Q4, but FSD will be 10,000 by the end of the year. Battery costs and the aluminum molding is going to boost productivity this year and into next year and should get the base Model 3 under 35,000 and it will be a better base then the original Model 3! Any cab or Uber driver not riding a Model 3 or Y will be at a disadvantage.

 

[avoigt]

I remember a lot of talk about "calling in rich" a few months back, so...

Assuming we open at these pre-market levels I suspect we'll have a few new Teslanaires today? I know, I'll be one of them

It happened

The team is growing and a warm welcome to the club.

Turns out to resign from my well-paid job last year was a very good decision. Never sold a single stock and don't intend to for the next years.

I won't forget that finding TMC helped me a lot to validate my investment thesis defined and executed back in 2012 - 2015. Lots of smart people and a ton of knowledge here. Also a Thanks to all the bears, FUDsterns and Naysayers that helped me to understand that they don't have a case.

Never bet against Elon!

 

[Causalien]

My philosophy: Focus on expected quality of life. If your natural drive pushes you towards ambitious projects, go for it. But money, beyond the necessary amount, is largely a proxy of society's appreciation of one's contributions. Doing what society expects or desires is not the best path to happiness. I see a lot of brilliant people fall into the trap of doing what they're expected to (and pays well), rather than what leads to the best life.

I strongly doubt you're in that crowd, seeing as you're an accomplished contrarian investor and all, but figured I'd share my thoughts

Of course, an extra million in the bank does have the potential to lead to increased quality of life. Both in terms of how interesting the journey towards it is, and in terms of pure economic power. But if your monetary needs are covered, I'd think that focusing on the enjoyment of whatever you choose to pursue should be a priority. Economic or social impact is mostly a moot point in that case.

I mean, look at the super brilliant >150 IQ folks. Most of them live in a completely separate world where they only focus on esoteric stuff that doesn't interest anyone else.

I haven't been doing What I was expected to since 18. So I've enjoyed starting a company, so to speak, and bringing it to profitability. The enjoyment is seeing the idea work and profitable. Profitability is half of the importance for me.

Then you get tsla which just completely annihilate these numbers. Making the profitability now seems like a moot point.

I guess in this circumstances ppl go for bigger ideas like Elon did. But I think the next stage is beyond my circle of competence when I look up and see the type of ppl in it. I guess, I reached my own "more money than brains" level.

 

[dl003]

It happened

The team is growing and a warm welcome to the club.

Turns out to resign from my well-paid job last year was a very good decision. Never sold a single stock and don't intend to for the next years.

I won't forget that finding TMC helped me a lot to validate my investment thesis defined and executed back in 2012 - 2015. Lots of smart people and a ton of knowledge here. Also a Thanks to all the bears, FUDsterns and Naysayers that helped me to understand that they don't have a case.

Never bet against Elon!

The most valuable resource this board possess is its members. The way people conduct themselves here is a good proxy for the appropriateness of their judgment and sometimes that's more accurate an indicator than numbers, and I'm an accountant.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Yup, no more academic arguments required, TSLA is the most valuable auto manufacturer (plus) in the world:

PS I added Nikola (NKLA) to the mix - they are the current growth leader.

 

[Mo City]

And who is this guy?

Matt is a cool cat. He's normally very level-headed. Not sure why he posted that.

 

[Artful Dodger]

5.4M chairs of TSLA traded by 10:00 ET

@ $1200+ that's over $6.5B in 30 min.

Cheers!

 

[Beltsbear]

Note their selection of file photo... gray, rainy day, showing ancient pre-facelift Model S's, like they're lined up at a funeral.

View attachment 559575

Still a good looking car. Prefer the new look of course.

 

[Chocochip]

I do think with ramping that the price for the 3 and Y may come down a bit after Q4, but FSD will be 10,000 by the end of the year.

This! This really needs to be emphasized, because it's something the bears don't get: the price of a Model 3 or Y incl. FSD will not change dramatically over the years, but less and less of it will be COGS as Tesla increases production and cuts costs in all their factories, and more and more of it will be SW. And so the margins will continually improve. And so will the build quality, and so will the performance & range, making the purchase of a new Tesla more and more attractive, and making that net profit number larger and larger.

 

[Paracelsus]

Was expecting dana would post this....

A couple days ago Dana Hull writes an article that appears to attempt to manufacture consent regarding Toyota having a higher market cap than Tesla despite TMC members already debunking that misconception. Today Dana wakes up to Tesla about to surpass a higher market cap than Toyota + GM + Ford. Is that a cup of Karma Coffee your drinking with breakfast this morning, Dana?

 

[MP3Mike]

CNBC video: Tesla delivers 90,650 vehicles in Q2, beating expectations

 

[Chocochip]

Ford BEATS an estimated drop of 35.2% by posting a drop of only 33.5%!

Phil LeBeau tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/Lebeaucarnews/status/1278679038702354433

 

[mrdoubleb]

5.4M chairs of TSLA traded by 10:00 ET

@ $1200+ that's over $6.5B in 30 min.

Cheers!

That's an awful lot of chairs!

 

[goinfraftw]

I love you all.

 

[lafrisbee]

I'm guessing you have greatly under-estimated profit while greatly over-estimating production!

yep, just round numbers
10,000 $50,000 vehicles were delivered as all profit is $500,000,000. And off the negative side>
here again I am the "unformally trained" so I do not know exactly how accountants will twist this aspect.... But couldn't that be a BILLION dollar swing?

 

[ggr]

Who bought some 7/2 calls yesterday (or this week), counting on a premarket release of positive numbers?

I did. trading

 

[JusRelax]

yep, just round numbers
10,000 $50,000 vehicles were delivered as all profit is $500,000,000. And off the negative side>
here again I am the "unformally trained" so I do not know exactly how accountants will twist this aspect.... But couldn't that be a BILLION dollar swing?

This is a huge swing in free cash flow, but not profits. Profits don't work like that.

 

[Silentk]

Incredible result during a pandemic!

Suggestion: Could you take a minute and make this your profile pic for the day - as a tiny sign of appreciation for their heroic efforts to change the world for the good - making lots of ppl wealthy as a by-product

 

[M|S|M MYP]

IN ELON WE TRUST!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

5.4M chairs of TSLA traded by 10:00 ET

@ $1200+ that's over $6.5B in 30 min.

Cheers!

I don't understand two things:

1) Why wouldn't this entity spread out that sale? Why sell any chunk at $1150 today?

2) How do 5M+ shares get sold like that and price recovers immediately?