Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mickificki]

You could try not posting anything for a week.

 

[AZRI11]

Elon in UK - anyone know which London airport? The rumoured factory near Bristol (not near London) would be a little odd for a manufacturing plant. Great place for a Supersonic VTOL aircraft design facility though....

I actually think they should make the *Roadster in England. If the British government gives enough incentives, why not. * batteries included

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The site I use (and keep bookmarked) for max pain is:
Stock Option Max Pain

The home page for that site also has some info about the idea of max pain and OI walls.

One of the notions you'll encounter there - max pain for next week is a nearly meaningless notion. Max pain in future weeks, unless it's a monthly expiration (and maybe even then) is nearly meaningless - the options volume on future weeks is trivially small compared to options volume in the current week (maybe a small start on next week later in the day Friday).


That being said, max pain for this Friday is $850. Next Friday (June 12) is $855, and June 19 is $700 (up from $675 earlier this week).

This week and the June 19 expiration are the two I would lend credence too. You'll see huge existing volume for June 19 as those options have been traded for the last 2 years. There's a particularly large pile of puts at $50 (the TSLA is going bankrupt puts ) -- those are going to be worthless in a couple weeks.

Thank you!

Kinda feels like max pain for this week and next weeks are by far the most relevant if the following weeks current max pain is 700. Kinda feels like the stock will be let lose the week of June 15th-19th. Would be quite the coincidence if volume comes back into the stock in a big way starting June 15th lol

Or do you think as June 19th expiration gets closer, it'll tick upwards to say 750 or 800 and considering the large amount of volume for that date, that there might be a larger effort to get the stock down to that level?

 

[Curt Renz]

Edmunds - today:

 

[HG Wells]

This board has really gone to *sugar*. What's the plan for a reboot?

Lets see. How about my wife's latest rumor.
Banks to stop making car loans.

 

[woodisgood]

Thank you!

Kinda feels like max pain for this week and next weeks are by far the most relevant if the following weeks current max pain is 700. Kinda feels like the stock will be let lose the week of June 15th-19th. Would be quite the coincidence if volume comes back into the stock in a big way starting June 15th lol

6/19 is a monthly, no? If so, I'd expect the SP to have a particular affinity for whatever max pain ends up being that week barring news of course.

 

[elasalle]

I actually think they should make the *Roadster in England. If the British government gives enough incentives, why not. * batteries included

Just Baptize the Dyson man (Like Nikola )

 

[Artful Dodger]

Upper-BB sitting at 883.39 at 15:30 hrs ET

</Kabuki>

 

[adiggs]

Thank you!

Kinda feels like max pain for this week and next weeks are by far the most relevant if the following weeks current max pain is 700. Kinda feels like the stock will be let lose the week of June 15th-19th. Would be quite the coincidence if volume comes back into the stock in a big way starting June 15th lol

Or do you think as June 19th expiration gets closer, it'll tick upwards and considering the large amount of volume for that date, that there might be a larger effort to get the stock down to that level?

If you look at the absolute $$ on the line in the week of June 19, I expect market makers to be needing to hedge and/or walk the stock price down. Most weeklies have 1-200M on the line - June 19 has low billions. There's a lot more incentive around that week, and presumably that will balloon during that week.

I think (but don't know) that there's so much on the line that week, that you don't wait until late that week to push the stock price down - you get started now . Maybe by hitting 850 next week.


I did some research yesterday, trying to figure out who and how many market makers there are for TSLA. I learned that if you're trading on NASDAQ, seeming anybody can be a market maker. The key is that you need to publish a bid, an ask, and a volume for each that you're ready and will to trade right now. If what I read is right, there are a couple thousand market makers in TSLA.

I don't know how those interact with the exchanges, or how many of those there are. So much I don't know; so very, very much.

The takeaway I have from that though, is to remember that max pain is an aggregate concept (added together over the whole market). That doesn't mean that all of the individual market makers have the same max pain, nor does it mean that all of the market makers have the same exposure and resources to hedge / move the market. I don't know of any way to gain this more granular detail level.

An important market reform I'd like to see is the return of the perms-uptick rule for short sales. Probably also a separation between market makers, and companies investing for their own account. To gain the important market making power of naked short sales, you have to give up the right to invest on your own account (market makers would be required to maintain a delta neutral position, and getting too far away would cause them to lose their market maker and naked short sales with a long settlement window position in the market). THEN, max pain would be a good insight into the market makers as a whole (and there would be a lot fewer market makers in TSLA )

 

[larmor]

I actually think they should make the *Roadster in England. If the British government gives enough incentives, why not. * batteries included

Maybe partnering with Maclaren for tuning of the roadster, plaid model S... Lots of other projects on the plate for EM and tesla including solar roof tiles, cybertruck, starlink, boring co, etc...

 

[adiggs]

6/19 is a monthly, no? If so, I'd expect the SP to have a particular affinity for whatever max pain ends up being that week barring news of course.

June is a triple witching day - expiration of options, futures - can't remember what else. Within the options only, that expiration has been trading for 2 years when the LEAPs were first released. Amusing to me - the single most popular strike are the 50 Puts . Oops.

There are a lot of options already on the books for that week, with max pain measured in low billions instead of low 100's of millions.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That would be the safe way. Elon has a jet, someone coming over here would have to fly commercial.

+1. Elon also has some ground to break in Grünheide. That'd be a bonus, because at the pace things are ramping up, there may be no 'before' picture if he doesn't go soon.

Cheers!

 

[woodisgood]

June is a triple witching day - expiration of options, futures - can't remember what else. Within the options only, that expiration has been trading for 2 years when the LEAPs were first released. Amusing to me - the single most popular strike are the 50 Puts . Oops.

There are a lot of options already on the books for that week, with max pain measured in low billions instead of low 100's of millions.

Good week to screw with MMs...say with a battery day presentation.

 

[AZRI11]

Buffalo Assemblyman Sean Ryan mentioned (Feb 2020) a 2nd onboard battery being produced at Giga Buffalo that would bring them closer to the automotive production side of Tesla. What if this is to replace 12 volt lead acid with lithium. Also, run sentry mode off this 2nd battery (less effect on range). Makes sense to me. Here's a link to the interview with the assemblyman
Assemblyman Sean Ryan

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Uh, you know TSLA is at $886.04 now, right?

Oh what I meant is that Max Pain for June 19th expiration would move up to 750 to 800 by June 19th. Definitely correct me if I'm wrong to assume that Max Pain wouldn't move higher than 800(general ballpark).

I don't know a lot about option plays and how much max pain can move over time. I figure this is one time when I considering actually reading into options to make my decision on when I buy. I definitely don't plan on using option information in the future.....mainly because the buys I make in the next 2 weeks will be the last of my buys in Tesla, forever(which is a good thing). My position has grown to a point where I actually don't need Tesla to hit that high of a price target in 5 years for me to hit my retirement goal. At this point, I just need shares to be at $2,500 to retire exactly how I want to. Anymore shares I buy now just lowers that share price target number.

Thanks again guys for the information!

 

[Christine69420]

Elon or some of his people might be in England to kickstart Tesla Insurance.

Or it could have to do with their utilities plans in the UK that rumoured here a few weeks back?

I actually think they should make the *Roadster in England. If the British government gives enough incentives, why not. * batteries included

They could leap ahead by using a classic brit roadster and putting the Tesla drivetrain under the bonnet. Something like the Lotus Elise perhaps?


PS why do I click "post" and not "preview" aka "more options" so often...

 

[mongo]

Amusing to me - the single most popular strike are the 50 Puts . Oops.

Or those are being used to offset the margin requirements in trader's accounts. Shifts the max at risk by $50, so each contract gives $5k*margin multiplier of extra buying power for cheap.

 

[AZRI11]

My heart bleeds UAW corruption scandal nears milestone with Jones plea

 

[Tslynk67]

Does anyone have a view into Max Pain for next week and the week after? I know that Max Pain changes as options are constantly updating, but does it look like there's a clear max pain wall for next Friday and/or the Friday after that? At this point, the stock clearly trading on playing the options and I don't see a catalyst for the stock to break that until Q2 P/D(which I'm bullish on).

I have more funds coming available either Friday or Mon/Tues of next week and trying to determine whether I want to do some short term trading on other stocks and flip them into long term holdings for Tesla sometime before Q2 P/D numbers are out. The fact that the Nasdaq is so close to breaking all time high and we still haven't closed above 900 makes me a bit uneasy on the direction of things(not Tesla specific, just macro trends)....at least until July is here for Tesla when we have multiple catalyst to break from any movement in the macros. I don't believe in a major retracement in the macros, maybe 5-10% retracement. But I do believe that retracement is going to happen in the next month or two.

On one hand, Tesla has mostly missed out on the 15% rally in the Nasdaq over the past month and the company has upcoming catalysts in Q2 P/D, Q2 earnings, and Battery Day to counter a retracement in the Nasdaq.

One the other hand, Tesla has mostly missed out on the 15% rally and could be taken lower despite upcoming catalysts.

Also no need for "Just buy it and hold and you'll be fine in 4 years" lol. I've been accumulating for years now and still bought on the once in a lifetime dip in March and still in the 700's and low 800's. I have never sold a share and won't be until the lower range of my price target is met in 4-5 years. I'm just getting pickier about my investments now since my position in Tesla has grown to many times more than I originally ever thought it would.

Here's next week's chart, but it will change a lot between now and then - although I expect $1000 calls to go up.

YTD chart, $TSLA versus $NASDAQ - I don't think we missed out much, quite the opposite...

 

[Tslynk67]

This board has really gone to *sugar*. What's the plan for a reboot?

Head over to the Iceland Meetup thread (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tmc-iceland-meetup-2020.181724/page-9-) Karen posts there, maybe better quality than here?