Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Could be a tower for a wind turbine?

Just for the up and down drafts...

 

[ZeApelido]

WARNING: Fanboy Rant

This is the crucial fact that most people don't understand -- the foundation of all their ignorance about Tesla.

As futurist Ray Kurzweil observed, the vast majority of people cannot comprehend exponential change. Our brains are wired to imagine linear change, not exponential. We can't guess how much rice will result if you double the number of grains on each square of a chessboard. We can't guess the result of 50% annual growth after 10 years. We can't easily understand the result of attracting the best engineering minds in the world, which then attracts more of the same.

Virtually everyone on Earth, including stock analysts and Big Money and everyone in this forum, has no clue what is coming from this company.

What the hell is that thing? No one saw it coming.
No one saw Starlink coming.
Or reusable rockets.
Or city-to-city rocket service.
Or tunnels for traffic.
Or Hyperloop.
Or solar glass roofs.
Or Megapack.
Or lidar-free Autopilot.
Or Tesla Network.
Or Project Dojo and Operation Vacation.
Or the Cybertruck design.
Or... wait a few weeks and the list will be longer.

The vast ignorance about Tesla is a vast opportunity for everyone here. Just an automaker? I hope the clueless keep telling each other that while I accumulate more shares.

Almost certain it's a Vitamin C collector

 

[LJS22]

Yes, you likely missed the signal. TSLA exceeded the Upper-BB SP (840.73) just before 2020-05-12 11-06 hrs: (SP climbed just +$2.56 above that tgt SP to $843.29 by 11:20 am @ for the intraday High)
View attachment 541541

TSLA then descended to the Middle-BB by 2020-05-13 12:20 hrs:
View attachment 541542

BTW, even at 09:30 hrs this morning, the Middle-BB was at $764.93 (that SP was reached at some point during the 12:20 minute (the exact low SP was $764.30)

View attachment 541543

BONUS Points: Notice that on Tue, at the moment the SP hit the Upper-BB, the MIDDLE-BB was exactly $762.00 forming the basic parameters for a swing trade. How's that for 'clairvoyance'?

In summary, that's 25 hrs from High to Low, almost exactly matching the Upper- and Middle-BBs in time and price.

That's 840.73/764.93 = +9.91% meaning each 10 shares spawn an addtional share (plus a few extra to cover the croupier's take).

That's a swing trade. IMHO, risks are:

• FOMO:
  • do this while you're ahead, so you don't feel rushed
  • don't bet the House; but bet enough so each swing nets a share when it executes
  • work in multiples of your base trade, until you can increment the base
    
  • if you have more available, constrain the range of the swing required to make a share (a 82% rge hits quite often, but does requires a 22% larger trade (ie: 13 shares spawn 1 today)
  • example: initiated today @ $820 while still anticpating a move to the Middle-BB, you would need to swing trade 40% more shares then when initiated at the Upper-BB, or 14 shares (+ fees) to spawn 1 share. Obvious multiples would then be 15 shares, 30, 60, etc. to spawn 1, 2, or 4 shares depending on your available capital/shares.
• INTERNET/PWR failure:
  • you can enter your SELL/BUY orders at the same time, in advance, based on the trading channel (modify as needed during normal operations, or just constrain your req'd rge)
    
  • get a UPS + desktop PC / have a Cell Phone app
• Black Swans:
  • yeah, you gotta expect 'em esp. w. TSLA (comes w. territory)
  • keep a long-term perspective (don't panic)
  • remain disciplined (tanked SP will recover, rockets will land)
  • it's "reversion to the trend", and "the trend is your friend"

I have all the spreadsheets from NASDAQ/EDGAR for yesterday/today if you'd like to see more data.

Cheers!

Alright Nostradamus where are we going tomorrow? Tesla’s chart looked pretty good today. It ran with SPY all day and avoided flatlining like SPCE and BYND.

If macros are good Tesla should be set up nicely I suppose?

 

[MartinAustin]

Are people discussing the Reuters article yet? Sorry, haven't been on yet today.

I'm concerned this will partly osborne sales of new cars while buyers wait for some sort of upgrade.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Alright Nostradamus where are we going tomorrow? Tesla’s chart looked pretty good today. It ran with SPY all day and avoided flatlining like SPCE and BYND.

If macros are good Tesla should be set up nicely I suppose?

9 out of 10 MMs say Friday is Max Pain day at the closing bell...

 

[ZeApelido]

I quit wearing a wristwatch back in the '90s because I realized I was compulsively checking it every 5 minutes regardless of need. Guess what I compulsively check every 5 minutes day and night now.

We need to get you a watch with TMC Investor thread update notifications and then you'll never sleep again ever.

 

[LJS22]

9 out of 10 MMs say Friday is Max Pain day at the closing bell...

So you’re saying there’s a chance! I’m sure MP will magically be met on news that a Tesla employee sneezed in the factory causing a 7 hour shut down and mandatory sanitization.

 

[JRP3]

Are people discussing the Reuters article yet? Sorry, haven't been on yet today.

I'm concerned this will partly osborne sales of new cars while buyers wait for some sort of upgrade.

There are always people waiting for some sort of upgrade. We don't know if that article leaked anything accurate.

 

[Etna]

There are always people waiting for some sort of upgrade. We don't know if that article leaked anything accurate.

Coming from Reuters regarding Tesla, this would be unprecedented.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

There are always people waiting for some sort of upgrade. We don't know if that article leaked anything accurate.

Completely agree with you here. If people want to wait, they'll wait. If they don't they won't. Not worth worrying about in my opinion. They're still buying a Tesla.

When they have new tech ready, they'll release it. It's all good.

Dan

 

[adiggs]

9 out of 10 MMs say Friday is Max Pain day at the closing bell...

Based on the options volume, I expect we'll close between 750 and 800 tomorrow. Over 30k options each (30k 750 puts, and 30k 800 calls) traded today. This being a monthly expiration, there's a lot more option volume accumulated over time than the weeklies, so there's more on the line for option sellers to get it right.

That's my guess, and I'm right, then my sale of a 695/1000 strangle is totally safe for tomorrow. This plus $5 is worth a cup of coffee.

 

[Intl Professor]

We need to get you a watch with TMC Investor thread update notifications and then you'll never sleep again ever.

You can catch it now, but manually, with an iWatch.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm still pretty sketchy on the Reuters report. If it is true, I think there's a lot of things being left out or reported incorrectly. The information about the terrafactorty is clearly either misinterpreted from the source or just false. I could see them meaning the terrafactory with the new batteries will produce the equivalent of 30X Giga1's. But the articles is saying new terrafactories will be 30X the size. That's clearly wrong.

The other thing is the new batteries only being produced in China, with other markets not getting them for another year. To me, the article's source is just completely incorrect or they are unaware of Tesla's plan for the US market. I still believe the new batteries will go in S/X first. Elon clearly said on the Q1 earnings call that the upcoming model s update will have the battery as well as the new drivetrain. I could see the article's source being confused in that only the model 3/Y in China will get the new batteries while the US/Europe Model 3/Y will have to wait a year. But that Tesla's high end cars such as S/X/Cybertruck/Semi will get the new batteries around the same time as China. The S/X probably sooner than China.

 

[bhtooefr]

This could be massive if true:

IF TRUE

Interesting detail there:


I thought the event was supposed to be online streaming, and if it was like FSD day, there won’t be any live demo of anything.

Wondering what they are planning to do that would need permission.

Host a in-person event with some surprises?

...unless this was Musk telegraphing his threat of pulling out of California.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Interesting detail there:


I thought the event was supposed to be online streaming, and if it was like FSD day, there won’t be any live demo of anything.

Wondering what they are planning to do that would need permission.

Host a in-person event with some surprises?

The California or Texas remark was in COVID context. You may remember that Elon was in a bit in a snit about that. Texas had started talking about reopening plans, so Elon was intimating that battery day may have to be there.

 

[Krugerrand]

Educate me.

Dan

A cat’s body temperature can range from 100.5 to 102.5. It’s one of the reasons they can tolerate sitting on a window ledge with the sun beating down on them and why they like sleeping under blankets even in the summer time - temperatures we keep our homes at are too cold for cats.

 

[Curt Renz]

InsideEVs - hour ago: Tesla Has Plans To Open Its First True Standalone Store In Michigan

Excerpt: It allows people to buy a Tesla in Michigan, but the sales contract still must say it was bought in another state.

That appears to be due to a mind boggling political compromise. How long will Michigan voters/consumers put up with such nonsense?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Green-tech blogger slams Elon Musk as ‘a self-important jerk,’ reconsiders buying a new Tesla
Green-tech blogger slams Elon Musk as ‘a self-important jerk,’ reconsiders buying a new Tesla

Who is Steve Hanley and why should I care?

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm still pretty sketchy on the Reuters report. If it is true, I think there's a lot of things being left out or reported incorrectly. The information about the terrafactorty is clearly either misinterpreted from the source or just false. I could see them meaning the terrafactory with the new batteries will produce the equivalent of 30X Giga1's. But the articles is saying new terrafactories will be 30X the size. That's clearly wrong.

The other thing is the new batteries only being produced in China, with other markets not getting them for another year. To me, the article's source is just completely incorrect or they are unaware of Tesla's plan for the US market. I still believe the new batteries will go in S/X first. Elon clearly said on the Q1 earnings call that the upcoming model s update will have the battery as well as the new drivetrain. I could see the article's source being confused in that only the model 3/Y in China will get the new batteries while the US/Europe Model 3/Y will have to wait a year. But that Tesla's high end cars such as S/X/Cybertruck/Semi will get the new batteries around the same time as China. The S/X probably sooner than China.

That is exactly how I see things, people in the Tesla bubble have a better idea of what to expect for battery day...

The only significance is people outside the Tesla bubble are realising Battery Day may be significant, and speculating, sometimes with comic results.

As a rough rule GF1 35GWh = 500 cars. 30 x 35 = 1,050 GWh so 1 TWh

Newer packs will probably average 100 KWh so IMO 120 GWh = 1 Million cars

1 TWh would build 8.3 Million cars but I can't see Tesla ever building 8 million cars from a single factory, the maximum size I expect would be 2-3 Million. The rest must be for energy storage... possibly an approximate 40/60 split...

We can work out the factory size from that guess but it isn't 30X GF1.

I might be wrong, but I'll probably be more right than Bloomberg.

 

[junas]

Are people discussing the Reuters article yet? Sorry, haven't been on yet today.

I'm concerned this will partly osborne sales of new cars while buyers wait for some sort of upgrade.

This article could osborne sales among TMC readers, but very few average Joes understand the difference between this new speculated battery and the current one. Also, it's 100% sure that this next gen battery tech will be obsolete by 2025 latest when Tesla & CATL have something new again.

If articles matter in sales at all I'd be more worried about Lora Kolodny et al.