Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone have a link to the latest Chanos bull s... I mean interview?

Dan

"Billionaire investor Jim Chanos: Still 'maximum short' on Tesla even with recent market moves" | CNBC on Youtube

Link to full (55 min) interview on Youtube posted for shits and giggles.

 

[dl003]

I'm so pumped. I'm way more pumped than Q3 and Q4. I'm not sure how much a month straight of bad news plays into how I feel, but the fact is Tesla just answered two big overhanging questions:
1/ Can Tesla hit delivery target in Q1? Obviously Q1 of last year still leaves a lot of people with bad tastes.
2/ Can Tesla pull ahead amid coronavirus?
This is it, Tesla is a bona fide winner. Doesn't matter how bad Q2 gets, Tesla just has to do better than everybody else which it just proved that it could. So what's left for the bears to say? Unless the world comes to an end, Tesla is going to come out ahead and the proof is in the pudding.
All we need is new cases to plateau out and we'll have ourselves a triple witching hour of epic proportion. California is issuing recommendation for wearing masks in public. We're very close to having our leaders getting their head out of their asses and doing what's been proven to work in Asia.

 

[vwman111]

For those needing a good laugh, Mark Speigel's appearance on Yahoo Finance yesterday:
Tesla Q1 revenue ‘will be an absolute disaster’: Stanphyl Capital

He was basically frothing at the mouth so much the hosts were incredulous. They tried to inject a little reality into the situation but Mark was oblivious to it. The male host looked like he was thinking someone should walk up behind him and slip a straightjacket on him.

Also, his Stanphyl March update letter:

Dropbox - Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2020.pdf - Simplify your life

I think it's telling as to his state of mind how his investor update letter has 14 pages, 12 and a half of which are dedicated to updating the 7 primary positions in the fund and, of those 12.5 pages, 10.5 pages are dedicated to trashing Tesla and the other 2 pages to the remaining 6 positions.

It's pretty obvious his fund only exists as a vehicle to bash Tesla.

I believe that was a clip from the start of March.

 

[FrankSG]

Chanos on CNBC on TSLA right now. "Still max short. One of my favorite positions"

I guess Chanos likes to lose money, or he gets paid by big oil to lie on TV.

 

[dl003]

For those needing a good laugh, Mark Speigel's appearance on Yahoo Finance yesterday:
Tesla Q1 revenue ‘will be an absolute disaster’: Stanphyl Capital

He was basically frothing at the mouth so much the hosts were incredulous. They tried to inject a little reality into the situation but Mark was oblivious to it. The male host looked like he was thinking someone should walk up behind him and slip a straightjacket on him.

Also, his Stanphyl March update letter:

Dropbox - Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2020.pdf - Simplify your life

I think it's telling as to his state of mind how his investor update letter has 14 pages, 12 and a half of which are dedicated to updating the 7 primary positions in the fund and, of those 12.5 pages, 10.5 pages are dedicated to trashing Tesla and the other 2 pages to the remaining 6 positions.

It's pretty obvious his fund only exists as a vehicle to bash Tesla.

That younger anchor guy's eyes twitching to Mark's words made my day.

 

[Unpilot]

Feel pretty good buying 244 shares @ 450...yep I am a genius.
Smart that is me.
I is smart...there I said it.

 

[vikings123]

That younger anchor guy's eyes twitching to Mark's words made my day.

or the female anchor trying to get Mark to stop continuing his nonsense akin to how a mom tries to get her kids attention when the kid is doing something wrong Mark....Mark....Mark....

Classic video for sure.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Apr 02, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $478.53
Volume: 19,873,050
Traded: $9,509,884,577.65 ($9.51 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 97.32%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 60.99% (74th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / NASDAQ Total Vol = 46.86% (55th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)

Comment: "Macro departure day: After-hrs surprise daze"

 

[FrankSG]

Notice that TSLA had opportunity to adjust full year guidance in this letter - but didnt.

Part of their new stance on investor relations imo. They didn't share any information at all, not even Shanghai production or MY production numbers.

It'll be all show from here on, and almost no tell.

Basically, they're sharing as little in terms of forecasts as they can get away with, and are laser focused on just executing to the maximum of their ability.

 

[dl003]

or the female anchor trying to get Mark to stop continuing his nonsense akin to how a mom tries to get her kids attention when the kid is doing something wrong Mark....Mark....Mark....

Classic video for sure.

Nothing is quite like getting muted by your hosts

 

[ggr]

Jeeeezus. Doesn’t he realize they put him on for comedic value?

Maybe that's true. The problem is that the audience doesn't.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This day would have been pretty good regardless, with Chanos.....it's sublime. He must be compensated in some way by fossil interests or maybe laabor unions.

There's no way a halfway intelligent person would choose to short literally the #1 brand in the world that attracts all the best talent and all the millennial retail investment. I flat out refuse to believe these are his sincere thoughts.

 

[FrankSG]

Meanwhile Tesla is doing what they can to reopen factory immediately, while doing construction on 1 existing factory 2 existing factories, construction on a new factory, and rumor has it looking for land to get started on another new factory.

Don't forget they're building extra MY capacity at Fremont. It may not be as easy to see from the outside, but there sure as hell is construction going on in Fremont.

 

[FrankSG]

There's no way a halfway intelligent person would choose to short literally the #1 brand in the world

This might be where your reasoning fails. You're blindly assuming Chanos is a halfway intelligent person.

 

[Boomer19]

"Billionaire investor Jim Chanos: Still 'maximum short' on Tesla even with recent market moves" | CNBC on Youtube

Link to full (55 min) interview on Youtube posted for shits and giggles.

what’s ironic is that during the interview he actually makes some decent points about various market activity as sort of a window dress the total bs he spews about tesla.


i think his 7 criteria to spot a fraud may actually apply to him as much as anyone or anything else. if you’ve paid attention to him long enough you can recognize which apply to him

from Jim Chanos: Seven Traits To Identify Fraudulent Companies - Stock Screener - The Acquirer's Multiple®

———-

1. Pressure to maintain numbers
2. Fear and silence
3. Young ‘uns and a bigger-than-life CEO
4. Weak board of directors
5. Conflicts of interest overlooked or unaddressed
6. Innovation like no other company
7. Goodness in some areas atones for evil in others

every one of them can be said about his efforts over the years. substitute weak sec oversight for #4. he’s definitely done #7 and #6 (the lengths and schemes and outright innovative ways to manipulate and cheat - see fairfax), also #5 is obv. for 3, in his mind at least. and i’m sure that #1 and 2 were in play in the run to 980.

 

[printf42]

OT:
Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon pushing back on the CPAP vs. Vent sugar that’s been circulating on Twitter.

Pretty sure this time too they tried pretty hard to find someone to go on TV and tell Elon to “shove those up somewhere”, but medical workers are all too wise to be baited like that.

 

[StealthP3D]

Since market cap was below 100B at quarter close, would they be able to save the 100M that has to be set aside for Elon? If so, would it help with GAAP profit?

Doesn't Elon get paid with TSLA shares, ie. no cash? Yes, I know he collects minimum wage (by California law) and he donates all of that to charity. But I believe his CEO compensation package is entirely in shares. That said, the share price or market cap milestone that is required for the first payment uses a 30-day moving average if I recall.

In any case, I don't see how this is relevant at all:

1) It's a forgone conclusion that he will get those shares, it's just a matter of which quarter it happens.
2) He has said he doesn't plan to sell them when they are awarded.
2) He's worth every share (and then some).

 

[dl003]

Doesn't Elon get paid with TSLA shares, ie. no cash? Yes, I know he collects minimum wage (by California law) and he donates all of that to charity. But I believe his CEO compensation package is entirely in shares. That said, the share price or market cap milestone that is required for the first payment uses a 30-day moving average if I recall.

In any case, I don't see how this is relevant at all:

1) It's a forgone conclusion that he will get those shares, it's just a matter of which quarter it happens.
2) He has said he doesn't plan to sell them when they are awarded.
2) He's worth every share (and then some).

I think it's relevant in that if the bonus is added back to Q1's financials, it can help it get closer to profitability and even SP inclusion. If the stock price rallies hard because of this, it will cement in place the $100B tranche bonus and maybe even the next tranche. At this point it's almost financial engineering.

 

[EV forever]

Doesn't Elon get paid with TSLA shares, ie. no cash? Yes, I know he collects minimum wage (by California law) and he donates all of that to charity. But I believe his CEO compensation package is entirely in shares. That said, the share price or market cap milestone that is required for the first payment uses a 30-day moving average if I recall.

In any case, I don't see how this is relevant at all:

1) It's a forgone conclusion that he will get those shares, it's just a matter of which quarter it happens.
2) He has said he doesn't plan to sell them when they are awarded.
2) He's worth every share (and then some).

Oh, I am not questioning his pay in any way - he deserves every single penny, share and then some.

In 4Q2019 - as the market cap went above 100B, Tesla had to show a certain tranche of shares allotted to his compensation on their earnings. He doesn't get those for a while (average of 6months where market cap is >100B), and even if he does, he won't sell any. But for accounting this in effect went into expenses column reducing the GAAP profit shown in their earnings. Since we are talking about GAAP profit possibility for 1Q2020, my question is if those are still in 'expense' account or are taken off now just from accounting point of view?

 

[mongo]

I think it's relevant in that if the bonus is added back to Q1's financials, it can help it get closer to profitability and even SP inclusion. If the stock price rallies hard because of this, it will cement in place the $100B tranche bonus and maybe even the next tranche. At this point it's almost financial engineering.

I don't think it works like that (undoing the expense).

Pursuant to ASC Topic 718, we would recognize stock-based compensation expense in respect of the CEO Performance Award over the period that is the longer of: (i) the derived service period calculated by the Monte Carlo option pricing model, and (ii) the estimated performance milestone achievement period(s) of such milestone(s) to the extent that the administrator of the CEO Performance Award periodically determines one or more performance milestones to be probable of achievement (for accounting purposes pursuant to guidelines set forth in ASC Topic 718). As the probabilities and estimated achievement dates of performance milestones pursuant to ASC Topic 718 have not yet been determined, we cannot currently estimate the amount or schedule of stock-based compensation expense to be recognized in respect of the CEO Performance Award in the future. However, the maximum stock-based compensation expense in respect of the CEO Performance Award that Tesla would ever recognize, assuming the actual achievement of all performance milestones, would be the actual aggregate fair value of the CEO Performance Award to be computed on the date that the CEO Performance Awards is approved by our stockholders at the Special Meeting.