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Everyone buys islands ..cheers!!

Islands are overrated

Especially this one.
51V7uLQWwbL._SY445_.jpg


Good movie. Full length.
 
Hello everyone

Usually I'm just a reader here but I would like to share a few thoughts and experiences I made recently.
Currently I am in Shanghai. Luckily I was able to convince my better half to spend a day to travel to the GF3 and check if we can walk around it.

GF3 Visit
How to get there from Shanghai centre (our hotel is close to Yu Yuan Garden, approx. 10 minutes from the Bund):
We went there by Metro/Subway (I recommend to download MetroMan App) and Taxi:

As a foreigner it’s probably impossible to go there just by public transport. There is a Bus stop 10 minutes away, but no way will you find the right line.
Dishui Lake is probably the closest Metro station.
View attachment 477188

From City Centre to GF 3 it took us 1 ¾ hours.
And now to the interesting part: pictures

View attachment 477177 Picture below the fence (10 cm gap). East side.

View attachment 477181
Model 3 parked on the east end of the factory.

There are approx. 10 Model 3 on the west side, right next to the big gait on the south west corner of the main building, It seems this is the End of the assembly line.
On the other side are at least 60 Model 3 parked, I saw white, blue and black model 3.
View attachment 477182 View attachment 477184 Northeast corner
View attachment 477185 Northwest corner
View attachment 477187
Southeast corner

You can walk around the factory, but you need good footwear. I recommend to start in the North West corner, the whole west side has a sidewalk, some parts of it still under construction. But you can walk on the street there. On the south side is a nice small forest, it seems the construction workers had more than one party there considering the amount of empty bottles. The road on the south side goes through this small forest. On the east side along the fence you will have to walk at the edge of a rice field. It’s muddy and if you reach the northeast corner you will meet a pretty surprised security guard because you will end on the wrong side of the parking checkpoint (this parking lot is outside the ID controlled area, no worries, security seems to be on point. All entrances are guarded).

We haven’t thought about our journey back to the metro, luckily we found a woman, waiting for her boyfriend who works for Tesla, she ordered a Taxi for us (thanks again lady in red). We had two hours to walk around the factory, inclusive taking pictures, filming and discussing what we saw.

On our way back we surpassed a model 3 on a truck, 3 minutes from GF3. White, with areos, no Chinese or western type marking (the P3D thing) visible.
View attachment 477179
View attachment 477180

I have a few videos from each side but my VPN can’t handle it and I’m a noob in video editing (faces, No. plates visible). But if you have specific questions I might be able to post screenshots.

Even more OT:
Who I am:
• Young mechanical engineer from Switzerland (worked for a CIGS solar start-up and an exhaust gas filter producer for ships, power plants and such)
• Indirect investor in tsla (my brother manages my father’s portfolio and I am like a technical consultant). Our investment strategy regarding tsla: Buy and hold.

Currently I am travelling the world. I will share my personal views and experiences I made along the way. So far besides the GF3 visit I had the following impressions:
1. Thailand
EVs are completely inexistent there. In two weeks I only saw an i8 and many prius, but no
EVs. I have talked to the family of my wife’s mother, nobody has heard of Tesla so far. An owner of an Audi R8 who i met in a bar knows Tesla because of the Nürnburgring fight with Porsche but has never considered to buy an EV.
The market for the cybrtrk would be huge here, it felt like every fourth car was a pick up. They use the pick-ups for everything. We even saw somebody sleeping in a hammock which was mounted above the bed during rush-hour on the highway in Bangkok.
2. China
We are currently in Shanghai, what a difference to Bangkok: I haven’t seen an ICE scooter until now (6th day here), all are EV, it’s awesome. One thing has to be mentioned: Those things are super-fast, their riders don’t care about traffic rules and they are silent, too silent. I already saw two accidents where a scooter driver crashed into a pedestrian. On the positive side: They are used to plug in their vehicle from young age and range anxiety shouldn’t be a problem here. Even more so that they usually make even less km in the city then we do in Europe or US. Also the air is clear (probably we are super lucky because the plants have been shut down because of the international china import expo in shanghai). I asked the waiter in our hotel and he told me we should really enjoy every day here as long as the sky is blue, therefore the clean air is probably just luck.

Tesla sightings in Shanghai (driven on the road, not GF3 related):
2x model 3
7x model S (3x pre facelift)
4x model X (two which are owned by a hotel whose name I unfortunately can’t remember…)

Our journey will lead us to the following destinations:
China: Xi'an, Beijing
Mongolia: Ulaanbaatar
South Korea: Soul, Busan
Japan: Tokyo, Kyoto, Kobe, Osaka
Canada: Vancouver, Vancouver Island
USA: Seattle, LA, Grand Canyon, Las Vegas, SF
Costa Rica

I will try to post on interesting things and topics regarding EV and PV.
My English isn't too good, if you have any suggestions on improvement feel free to tell me.

Stay long!
LeChef

Hello again

I received surprisingly high amount of positive feedback (informative and like klicks) on my last post. Therefore I hope you will enjoy reading about the next part of our journey. Please be aware this only shows my personal experience and could be experienced completely different by somebody else.

Let’s go on with China:
We travelled from Shanghai via Suzhou and Xi'an to Beijing. We missed the Coronavirus by two months. I haven't seen a natural forest on the whole 20 hours we spent in trains. The whole area between coast and Xi'an (800 km wide) is basically one big network of big and small cities, some fields in between. As a Swiss, used to see forest and green areas quit often this was something unbelievable.
We crossed an uncountable amount of those grey block buildings, most still under construction, in the middle of nowhere. Living in those buildings is unimaginable for me.
But the people in China we talked to and had as guides were all (100%) super happy with their government because their live improved in the last three decades in a way most western people can't imagine. They fully accept the control of the government. To think of scenarios what will happen if the economic growth will turn negative is no option for them. When it happens and it will (thinking more long term here 20-30 years+) it will be too late and the people will suffer a long time to get the control over their country back. Reminds me a bit of Georg Orwell.
Regarding short term future of Tesla: China is addicted to bigger, better, faster. In the center of Beijing it seems nobody is driving a car which costs below 25k USD. Porsche, Mercedes Maybach series and all other luxury car brands are well represented there. Most of them seem to be Long editions, the people owning those cars seems to not drive them by themselves (that was at least my personal impression).
All people with whom I talked about Tesla think Tesla cars are absolute luxury, at least comparable with German premium brands. Many of them will consider a Tesla as soon as MIC M3 will hit the streets. The potential market in China for Tesla is incredibly huge, I think especially because they will not have any national «we have lost» feelings when they switch from BMW/VW/… to Tesla. Not like some Germans I know.
Big SUVs and pickups are at least in the cities not too common (personal impression), sedans are the better solutions especially because as soon as you leave the main road the alleys are thin and a CT size car will not be fun.
We basically only spent time in city centres, the potential for SUV and CT style cars might be really huge outside the centre.

Tesla sightings in China (within two weeks):
Suzhou (half an hour west of Shanghai)
2x Model 3
1x Model S
Xi'an (former and first capital of china)
2x Model S
Beijing (current capital of VR China)
4x Model 3
1x Model S (fully covered in chrome foil)

Mongolia:
What a great feeling I had just to see untouched emptiness while we crossed the north east corner of the Gobi dessert. An absolutely beautiful country. In Ulaanbaatar (following UB as the locals call it) they have four coal power plants, UB is in a valley, the air quality in winter is really bad. Far worse than in Beijing. It snowed in the first night after our arrival, when we came back to UB two days later all snow was grey to black covered.
Potential for Tesla in Mongolia: S,X,3 probably close to 0. Most Mongolians have nomadic relatives (still 60% of the Mongolians live in some ways as nomads) and therefore have to travel really long ways on dirt roads. To build a charger network is currently not worth it.
It might be a different case for the CT with 500 miles range. If you are somebody important in Mongolia you drive a Mercedes G wagon (the refrigerator on wheels), the CT could be the next big thing there, but regarding Numbers we talk about a few thousands per year maximum. Mongolia has after all only 3 million people. Density: 2 persons per km² (compared to Germany 232 pers. per km². Regarding traveling Mongolia is the most impressive country I have ever been and we plan to go back there someday.

Tesla count Mongolia: 0

South Korea:
We spent in total eleven days in South Korea, a week in Seoul and four days in Busan. The locals are really aware of Tesla, everybody knew about Tesla even we basically haven’t seen any on the roads. The South Koreans we met really care about environment problems and they also told us for 40k USD the Model 3 should sell really well.

Tesla count South Korea:
1x Model X in Seoul

Japan:
We spend a whole month in Japan (over Christmas and new-year). It was a bit difficult to get into a discussion with Japanese people. The few which spoke with me about EV, Tesla and cars haven’t really been aware of Tesla and EVs in general. Also the environmental aspect about it was not really a talking point, completely different to South Korea. We saw a few Teslas in Tokyo, Osaka and Nara, the store in Osaka is perfectly placed on the main shopping street in the centre. In the cities really small cars seems to dominate the picture. A smaller car like a Model 2 could really be a success. But I would never drive a Model S size car in Japan. Owing a car in Japan is at least in the cities absolutely not necessary. Public transport is next level good.

Tesla count in Japan:
2x Model S in Tokyo
1x Model 3 in Nara
1x Model S and X in Osaka
0x in Kyoto even we stayed there for 10 days.

Canada and USA:
We spend a few weeks in Vancouver, on Vancouver Island, Seattle and are now in LA.
It was and still is awesome to see so many Teslas. Especially in Vancouver the Tesla density seems to be really high. We spend two minutes on a bridge in Stanley Park and counted three Model 3 and two X’s within those 120 secs. We saw two Model 3 in Tofino on Vancouver Island, range and winter temperature is no problem it seems.
We went to the most American thing I could think off yesterday. The monster jam monster truck show in Anaheim. And even there on the parking lots between all those people having BBQs on the parking lot next to their Pick-ups we saw quite a few Model 3s. Our seat neighbours on both sides drive Ford Pick-ups but they will at least give the Cybertruck a try (you all know what will happen as soon as they give the CT a try).

Counter: A Lot!

Future outlook:
There are so many good business opportunities for Tesla around the whole world. I really love to be part of this.

· Factory places:
I really love the decision to produce in Shanghai and Berlin, this gives Tesla the unique opportunity to hire out of a much bigger talent pool than any other tech company. As a young engineer myself I would never consider working in the Germans no man’s land, but to move to Berlin to work for the company of the century really sounds like a great opportunity.

· Investor related:
The last twelve months showed why I really like my brother and my decision to go with buy and hold (we don’t expect to need the money in the next decade).
It’s nearly impossible to predict the market in short therm. Tesla was a great company twelve months ago and it is still now. Not that much has changed. Only the market cap went from far too low to still far too low. Timing the market with factors like the Corona hysteria seems to be almost impossible (I was in China before Corona but there haven’t been any indicators a Virus outbreak is coming soon /s).

Not an advice: If you don’t need the money in the next few years just buy and hold. Makes life so much more relaxed.

On our own behalf:
We (my brother, my fiancée and I) are in San Francisco from 21 of March to 26 of March. We asked for a factory Tour at Tesla Fremont. But a Model Y reservation is not sufficient. You need to own a Tesla but we will not until then. If somebody with a Tesla has 2-3 spots available and planes to see the factory during that time we would like to join them (diner afterwards is on me and I will through some Gigafactory Shanghai Hiking videos in the pot too). Please PM me if your and our plans match.

Fun fact to Xi'an China:
The first emperor’s grave is close to Xi'an, you probably know the terracotta army which is guarding the artificial mountain under which his mausoleum is buried. His mausoleum is still not opened, they think there are 6000 terracotta warriors, after approx. 40 years they have now put 1000 of them together, so if anybody is interested in an unsolvable dust puzzle, you might find your destiny there. The first emperor’s grave building used over 1/3 of the whole tax income, think about it the next time you think your government is the worst.
 
Interesting article about a dealer in Dallas who sells used Teslas to cope with compressed new-vehicle margins:

Dealer sells Teslas and customized trucks to fight margin squeeze

Some excerpts from the article:
"I went out and bought him a Model S, and I was so impressed with the car," Baum said in an interview. "This car — by far — is the best vehicle I've ever driven myself. And so from there, I said, 'We're going to start stocking these.' "

While the California-based automaker chooses to sell its new EVs directly to consumers, Texas law prohibits company-owned stores. So buying Teslas in the state can be a hassle, said Baum, 35.

"But there's still huge demand for them," he said. "I see them all over the road, all over Dallas. So we're carrying late-model Teslas, 1- to 2-year-old Model S, Model X and the Model 3."

Baum said the average Tesla stays on his lot for only eight days. Supply comes from auctions of off-lease cars and loaner vehicles. "The demand is there, we just can't keep them on the lot," he said. "I think it's a great value for someone not to have to pay advertised price on a new one."
 
Sure, but I seriously doubt that specific part is true. Certain elements of the battery making process may be cheaper, but to say it’s more then 2x cheaper for the whole battery is hard to believe. Would be great if true.
Who knows, but they intro'd the cybertruck with such a low price for 500+ miles range (relatively speaking, and of course the upper range on price is tayken). Something is up!
 
Another reason why we can expect Tesla to continue to use the available supply of 18650 cells from Panasonic is to deny this supply to the competition, which seems to be under supplied with battery cells.

I thought the point of Tesla is push other auto OEMs to switch to BEVs. Because Tesla alone can not switch the entire globe to the sustainable production and consumption of energy.

The only firms using cylindrical cells are the startups. Legacy OEMs don't cylindrical cells.
 
AP/FSD is tied to the car. That car was returned to Tesla. Tesla strips vehicles of options before they resell them. A used-dealer purchased the stripped car from Tesla at an auction, and then sold it to a buyer, telling them that it came with FSD even though FSD had already disappeared before delivery - which the dealer tried to convince them was a "glitch" and pointed to the Monroney sticker (which only describes how the car was when the first buyer received it) to insist that it had FSD.

EDIT: Piece I read said that ...
New private owner claims AP/FSD was enabled when he took delivery, and only disappeared after next software update. Why would Tesla deliver the car to the dealer without first re-installing the software without AP/FSD? Maybe it really was removed, and the private owner is just saying that it was to bolster his case, along with the paperwork?
 
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There was another test done by nextmove in Germany which supports that thesis: at 94mph peak/80mph average on the Autobahn, Taycan against Model 3, starting with a full battery and completely draining it. Model 3 did 332 miles, Taycan 314 miles. That is only a 6% difference.


View attachment 509496

That is not the best comparison (AWD two-motor Taycan vs. RWD single-motor Model 3). At least I assume it was the single motor Model 3 since it called it the "Long Range" without identifying it as AWD or Performance.

The reason I think this is significant is because we have both a LR RWD and Performance Model 3 and, while the LR RWD is considerably more efficient at city duty and under 50-60 mph, I've been super impressed with the efficiency of the Performance Model 3 during extended high speed trips, 75-120 mph. Leaving aside that there are very few places in the US where this can be done safely, let alone legally, the Performance version does seem to come into its element at higher speeds and return consumption figures I don't think our RWD Model 3 could. I expect the AWD would be the same.

Note that these are unscientific observations but that both cars have the same 18" Aero wheels and OEM tires.
 
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