Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Discharging all cells at max C-rate ?

Max-Q? Max-C? Might be workable, maybe a little techy for now... Is there some other phrase we can pluck from of the existing social zeitgeist to make our own? Let's run some more ideas by the Producers.

 

[Runarbt]

Wow, nobody discussing this?
1. You can live in the bed of a Cybertruck- no longer need a home.
2. Possible exchange of items between a 2nd row and bed residents.
3. Partial bio defense should beat 3 and Y?

And you think you don't need a Cybertruck?
Put in a reservation, the FOMO is only going to get worse.

View attachment 489943

Soo.. what you saying (1) is we could sell our houses and really go all in on TSLA?

Yeah! :-D

 

[JustMe]

So how many vehicles out there are eligible for this $2000 OTA upgrade?

The fact that this can be ordered in two minutes from your smartphone and automatically added as you sleep is marketing genius. How many people would follow through if they had to make a special trip to their dealer for the upgrade.

Add to this the subscription services and FSD upgrades etc. Soon Tesla will have a million cars on the roads and growing. “Ooh cool new feature for only $&!” -> hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue overnight.

Obvious parallel with a smartphone with the App Store just a click away. Fun, convenient, and gets better with age

 

[c041v]

So we still doing that Reykjavik meetup at $500?

I’m in.

I also did my part and bought the AWD+ upgrade just now, even though my wife is driving the car this week... wonder if she will download the upgrade tomorrow morning?

It was the least I could do with the TSLA gains I’ve made in the last couple days.

 

[Buckminster]

Wow, nobody discussing this?
1. You can live in the bed of a Cybertruck- no longer need a home.
2. Possible exchange of items between a 2nd row and bed residents.
3. Partial bio defense should beat 3 and Y?

And you think you don't need a Cybertruck?
Put in a reservation, the FOMO is only going to get worse.

View attachment 489943

A more appropriate thread:
Cybertruck camper

 

[MP3Mike]

I also did my part and bought the AWD+ upgrade just now, even though my wife is driving the car this week... wonder if she will download the upgrade tomorrow morning?

There is nothing to download. It happens almost instantly, assuming you have the correct firmware on the car, but the only way you can tell is that the acceleration option changes from Chill/Standard to Chill/Sport.

 

[c041v]

If that’s the case, I hope she takes it easy on the way to work tomorrow...

(I did install 40.2 the other week)

 

[MP3Mike]

If that’s the case, I hope she takes it easy on the way to work tomorrow...

(I did install 40.2 the other week)

You should probably mention it to her... Maybe put a sticky on the steering wheel: "Merry Early Christmas dear I upgrade your Model 3. "

People that have tested, and reported about, it say that full acceleration is now "violent".

 

[NicoV]

Looks like Tesla just added $2K Acceleration Upgrade for AWD (non-P) owners. Pure profit.

1800 euro in Europe. The upgrade wasn’t there yesterday evening, but this morning it is available. Checked it again this morning because I saw somebody on the Benelux FB groups proudly announce his purchase of the upgrade.

 

[Fact Checking]

Something dawned about that CNBC interview today with Bethany McClain (Jim Chanos' favorite journalist, and someone who became a millionaire via her being his journalist of choice during the Enron collapse) and Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer.

Throughout the interview, her phrasing, and delivery sounds noticeably like Chanos (if I had to bet, I'd say there were tutorial sessions with talking points when they found out Bethany would be on CNBC today).

Then at 6:27, she says,

"I think its going to be hard to kill Tesla, flat out kill it."

She did not say, ~I think it's unlikely Tesla is going to die~


Tesla has made it through its most difficult days, analyst says


Many times we've discussed Chanos and Fairfax Financial as a potentially a model for his short position in Tesla. In Matt Taibbi's book, Matt lays out his case that Chanos took a perfectly viable Canadian insurance company, shorted it heavily, and then pumped out false information in an attempt to create a crisis of confidence that would have customers walk away from fake claims of financial distress in order to create real financial distress.

That is, per Taibbi Chanos wasn't going after a dying company, he was trying to kill a healthy one by pumping out misinformation.

In this context, McClain's comment may be quite telling for two reasons if she really is mouthing the thoughts of Chanos.

1) Plans of killing Tesla look out of reach and have been taken off the table.

2) That's what the plan was... not shorting a company falling out of viability, but, through spreading falsehoods fabricating a crisis of confidence that really could kill a company.

Final thought- Fairfax was a small insurer in Canada. Tesla was already worth tens of billions when Chanos started shorting it, and growing revenues at better than 50% per year. Tesla does not at all resemble the little known, modest sized prey that Chanos sought to take down in the case of Fairfax (if Taiibi's theory is correct). Why would Chanos target a company worth $30-50 billion for such a take down? Isn't that way to large for that sort of con game? This would be consistent with the idea that Chanos' short position is actually just a tool within a much larger job he may have been hired for. Taking out an elephant by entities for whom an elephant is a realistic sized prey, ie, fossil fuel interests.

If you look at Bethany McLean's Twitter you'll quickly realize that she is TSLAQ through and through:

Bethany McLean on Twitter​

She's far more cozy with prominent TSLAQ ringleaders than Dana Hull or Russ Mitchell ever was.

How this kind of blatant, seemingly criminal interference with Tesla's business is tolerated by CNBC is beyond me - it's a substantial legal risk at this point IMO, and the First Amendment doesn't offer much protection against this kind of profit oriented smear and what (allegedly) looks like outright libel and securities fraud: market manipulation and an illegal short-and-distort campaign.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Jack Rickard lays it down once more (slowly, as always) | 11 hrs ago

"Tesla Stock Jumps $40 this week to $390 - Why and Where it goes from here."

 

[SteveG3]

If you look at Bethany McLean's Twitter you'll quickly realize that she is TSLAQ through and through:

Bethany McLean on Twitter​

She's far more cozy with prominent TSLAQ ringleaders than Dana Hull or Russ Mitchell ever was.

How this kind of blatant, seemingly criminal interference with Tesla's business is tolerated by CNBC is beyond me - it's a substantial legal risk at this point IMO, and the First Amendment doesn't offer much protection against this kind of profit oriented smear and what (allegedly) looks like outright libel and securities fraud: market manipulation and an illegal short-and-distort campaign.

Thanks for the info FC. Helpful to learn about, but, by no means shocking, as Bethany is very cozy with Chanos, and it would very much fit with Taibbi's description of Chanos' "MO" if tslaq is, at least in substantial part, acting in concert with, or even under the reigns of Chanos.


As to CNBC...

Think of that circa 2007 video of Jim Cramer on camera discussing market manipulation he's engaged in, using terms roughly like "blatantly illegal," and his use of pushing false narratives onto CNBC, how important it is to get it on CNBC, etc (among other entities like the WSJ). Cramer is explicit about engaging in behavior that makes his role at CNBC like hiring the head of the mafia to act as police chief.

I find it nearly impossible that CNBC does not know about that video,

and,

Cramer is not only welcome to appear on CNBC,

he's arguably the best known CNBC daily team member.

puts, how does CNBC "tolerate" this re Bethany appearing as a guest in a whole different light, no? (fwiw, that same video today, was the first I heard that Bethany was not only a guest on CNBC, but, now, a CNBC contributor... like Cramer, it seems that engaging in this sort of behavior is not only not a disqualifier for appearing on CNBC, it's a leg up in getting a job at CNBC).

I think the people running CNBC have a pretty good idea of what's going on, and the calculation isn't simply what's legal risk, fraud, etc., re what airs on their network in and of itself, but, also, what is the risk level given the massive leverage and influence they have to intimidate and/or do character assassination of anybody daring to take them on, and, if that were to happen, what is the risk level of the massive leverage and influence they have with regulatory bodies being sufficient or not to protect them.

I'm not suggesting that we ought to feel hopeless, resigned, etc, but, rather that a route to respond to all this be developed other than reporting the bus driver as drinking on the job when you show up to his bosses' offices and see he and all those bosses are tossing down drinks together.


for any here who've only glossed over posts about that video unaware of how explicitly Cramer reveals the media/WS game played of fabricated narratives and market manipulation (including naming his use of CNBC and the WSJ before he hopped onto the media side of the game), here's a link to the 10 minute segment,

 

[Artful Dodger]

Think of that circa 2007 video of Jim Cramer on camera discussing market manipulation he's engaged in, using terms roughly like "blatantly illegal," and his use of pushing false narratives onto CNBC, how important it is to get it on CNBC, etc (among other entities like the WSJ). Cramer is explicit about engaging in behavior that makes his role at CNBC like hiring the head of the mafia to act as police chief.

Jim Cramer is now just 7 weeks until retirement age. Here's his CNBC video yesterday: (changed his tune, wot?)

"Cramer's lightning round: Don't Ford — own the stock of Tesla"

 

[Fact Checking]

Fact Checking previously indicated that this could force the purchase of 20 million shares of Tesla in a relatively short period of time.

I believe @ValueAnalyst on Twitter estimated similar figures - but these are really just wild guesses, in reality nobody knows as many funds will buy options preemptively to reduce the index front-running costs. It's not like S&P 500 index front running is a big secret.

We know of one recent example of what effects S&P 500 inclusion had:

• Twitter rallied about +60% after their S&P 500 inclusion last year,
• in the 3 weeks after S&P 500 inclusion became clear trading volume was ~600 million TWTR shares, which is equivalent to about 150 million TSLA shares traded. Assuming 10%-20% of that was index fund related accumulation that's 15-30 million TSLA shares-equivalent volume - roughly in line with the above estimates of ~20 million shares.

But Twitter had half of Tesla's market cap and nowhere near the amount of trapped bears:

Twitter's Q1'2018 earnings on April 25 2018 made S&P 500 inclusion certain. There were ~28 million TWTR shares shorted back then, that was a short interest of about 3% of the float.

Tesla's short interest is still almost 20% of the float ...

 

[Fact Checking]

Jim Cramer is now just 7 weeks until retirement age. Here's his CNBC video yesterday: (changed his tune, wot?)

"Cramer's lightning round: Don't Ford — own the stock of Tesla"

For those who are criticizing Cramer for his past FUD against Tesla and his opportunistic 'flip' to Tesla support: you are 100% right and nothing of that is forgotten or should be forgotten. His trolling of the SEC, against Elon, was particularly dangerous to Tesla at a critical point in time.

But Tesla has very few supporters in the mainstream media, and an entertainer like Cramer being on Tesla's side is a big asset. As long as he is on Tesla's side Tesla supporters should accept his help, it's a substantial effect I believe, as CNBC is the go-to channel for many retail shorts I believe ...

I.e. Tesla is IMO not in a position to reject imperfect Tesla supporters.

I said the same of Andrew Left of Citron Research last year: his highly visible defection from the TSLAQ camp last winter was very damaging to the short thesis and was I believe one of the major factors driving a mini short-squeeze which propelled the stock to $380 back then.

 

[sundaymorning]

prediction: we breach $400 tomorrow by 11 am Pacific Standard Time.

Reasoning: shorts have lost control. They’re utterly defeated, confused and disoriented. There are deserters everywhere and as margin calls are going out, bulls have become more bold as Tesla has grown much stronger today than 3 months ago. Momentum traders are salivating, Cramer has converted; to me Tesla appears to have a clear path to take $400 in similar fashion that took us to a new ATH.

Today was the short’s last stand at the Alamo, they’ve had their chance with multiple coordinated attacks via fake news from the usual suspect. The storyline that was used were successful in the past, but something happened today, buyers came flocking in large quantities; they grabbed Tesla shares as fast as they were selling to push us all the way to $395. I think tomorrow shorts will cave at the first sight of more green as they’ve completely lost their wits. Just how did they get themselves in this mess? How could they miss all the signs? Could their thesis be wrong? These must have be some questions they are replaying in their heads over and over again tonight. Sure there will be large institutional shorts who will hang on, but the smaller shorts will cave in large quantities tomorrow. Just remember this, most shorts are now completely in the red, it only takes a nudge for more dominos to fall. FOMO is also setting in, and you don’t want to miss out on the possibility of “the squeeze of the century” if you sell.

Goodnight to the longs, a long night for the shorts...

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think tomorrow shorts will cave at the first sight of more green as they’ve completely lost their wits. Just how did they get themselves in this mess? How could they miss all the signs?

2 words: TSLAQ block list echo chamber

 

[Fact Checking]

Nvidia has announced a new automotive FSD chip, "Orin":

NVIDIA Details DRIVE AGX Orin: A Herculean Arm Automotive SoC For 2022
​

They claim 200 TOPS performance in a similar power envelope as Tesla's HW3 chip, which top line performance figure is higher than Tesla's FSD chip with 140 TOPS, but there's a number of key differences:

• Nvidia bases their 200 TOPS performance not on a large real-life FSD neural network, but on a usual INT8 benchmark that likely fully fits into their cache.
• Tesla has on-board SRAM which is directly addressable, i.e. there's no RAM traffic during inference calculations of loaded networks.
• Nvidia's new chip on the other hand still has visible cache structures on the CPU die:
  • 

Note that horizontal rectangular area in the middle-left area, that looks like a shared CPU cache to me. (But I could be misreading the die.)

Tesla has a very different chip design, which visibly differs from Nvidia's:

Note how the on-die SRAM areas (areas with vertical striping) are next to the NPUs, feeding a hierarchy of functional units.

I.e. I believe even Nvidia's latest chip doesn't have even close to the real-world NN inference computing performance of Tesla's HW3 chip: Tesla's chip can load very big neural networks and do one inference calculation per cycle. Nvidia's chip is a traditional design and has to fall back to DRAM for large networks and has caching overhead.

Also, much of Nvidia's speedup is probably from the 7nm process they are using, while Tesla's HW3 chip is using a 14nm fab process.

The performance advantage from a process shrink is almost quadratic for simplified designs like Tesla's NN chip - i.e. Tesla's HW3 chip, when shrunk to a 10 nm or 7 nm process, would likely have real-world NN inference computing performance well beyond Nvidia's benchmark-only 200 TOPS.

TL;DR: Tesla's HW3 advantage is IMO not endangered by Nvidia's Orin.

 

[engle]

This email just went out to all the Model 3 Long-Range Dual Motor owners in the USA I am guessing. Including the rest of the world, I wonder how many of these are out there? Wonder what the take rate will be? Could be serious > $100M rev boost to 2019 Q4 if 50K+ buy it. 3.9 seconds is brilliant -- now I will have a "sub-4 second 0-60 mph car"! I am still waiting on my $2,000 FSD AI computer board upgrade, however.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Forced buying from Index Funds, which are the largest segment of the total equity held in the Market. Stability, do not sell on 'Bumberg Newz' FUD.

Bonus, Larger Market Cap for TSLA means more buying from Index Funds though readjusted weightings of their total holdings (ie: they attemp to 'track' the Index). Overall, its a virtuous cycle of equity injection.

TL;dr It's also good to have friends in high places.

My understanding is that index funds lend their shares out to short sellers. So while the additional demand is great, it will likely be offset to a certain degree by lower borrowing costs for short sellers - and potentially causing larger short positions in the future.