Of course, a Tesla costs far less to make now than it did a year ago, and Tesla has almost entirely weaned itself off of US tax credits (indeed, if US credits ever get reinstated... geez, I hope they have three operational vehicle gigafactories by then!), and it's now operating predominantly on sustained orders rather than backlog, in an ever-growing marketplace (EVs) - while still having more major automarkets to move into, and some of its Q2 expansions not done yet with their initial surges.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Of course, a Tesla costs far less to make now than it did a year ago, and Tesla has almost entirely weaned itself off of US tax credits (indeed, if US credits ever get reinstated... geez, I hope they have three operational vehicle gigafactories by then!), and it's now operating predominantly on sustained orders rather than backlog, in an ever-growing marketplace (EVs) - while still having more major automarkets to move into, and some of its Q2 expansions not done yet with their initial surges.
China assembly line looks manual. New harness is designed for robotic assembly (also a different electrical setup). Low risk, low cost approach is to keep parts common with US version.
Giving the Y the same exact tail lights and head lights as the 3 is really dumb
Tesla is consistently cash flow positive. Q3/Q4 2018 and Q2 2019 were positive FCF. Q1 2019 was negative mainly in part to a 920 debt repayment which they paid in cash.
Did you mean to say consistently profitable on a GAAP earnings basis?
Fudsville Times (2021):
Models X/Y Stealing Sales from Z (Truck?).
It should be a huge profit center. Many people who were first considering the Model 3, might now be waiting for the Model Y. I may be one of them. I wouldn't be surprised if the pent up demand is so large, that the Model Y could be priced to allow for a significant profit margin. The same could likely be true for the pickup truck.
I think the term is cost effective.
Esp since those headlights received good marks from IIHS.
Just a guess....probably wrong. But did Elon run over your bike at some point in the past?
I got a lot of "likes" on this, so I’ll expand further.
My old energy plan was provider's-choice for source at $0.096/kWhr energy charge. The new plan is all renewable: solar days (0600-2100) at $0.163/kWe and wind nights at $0.00. When all the transmission charges were taken into account, I would break even if my night/day usage ratio was 35/65 or higher.
I don't drive much - maybe 600 mi/month. But with the new plan I’m still saving 10-35% (determined mostly by how much the home AC is running during the day) over the old plan (as long as I still charge at home every night). But an interesting observation is that even if I started driving a lot, an 11 kW charging rate could still completely recharge a 75 kWhr EV battery in the 9 hr window of free energy. So if I started driving 300 mi/day instead of 20 my electric bill would not change!
This seems to show the potential for an excellent synergy between abundant wind power and electric vehicles. Since there is (currently) no good grid storage for excess wind energy during off-peak use, the EV batteries serve that role. The energy provider charges a higher rate during peak hours (essentially getting some income from this otherwise spilled power) and the consumer potentially still saves money (depending on usage patterns).
This will all change if 1) there are enough EVs charging at night to significantly change the demand curve and/or 2) grid-scale energy storage comes online.
Last edited:
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla's R&D dollars aren't that precious. Tesla is not capital constrained.
Barring major world wide recession Tesla is supposed to be swimming in it by second half of 2020.
I don't think that is the case on pent up demand. Most people don't know that the model Y exists. I've talked to several folks that were considering Teslas and had zero idea that a small SUV was coming out next year. (anecdotal but that's all I have)It should be a huge profit center. Many people who were first considering the Model 3, might now be waiting for the Model Y. I may be one of them. I wouldn't be surprised if the pent up demand is so large, that the Model Y could be priced to allow for a significant profit margin. The same could likely be true for the pickup truck.
I definitely think it will be very successful as it ramps and people realize it is a thing.
It's going to be very interesting once we can use our cars as accessible grid storage. I expect our charging will be free or they will be paying us for the privilege.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I agree, but only to a point. Here's what's going on broadly with regard to when we will see more profitability/recognition and appreciation:
Many years ago Musk saw that the declining cost curves of batteries and associated components was going to intersect and pass the cost curves of ICE cars but that no ICE manufacturer was going to be prepared to hit the ground running with EV's (for numerous reasons). Not only would this be bad for AGW, but it also spelled opportunity. So Tesla has now positioned itself exceedingly well and the cost curves are just now starting to come into line.
However, Musk was a little too optimistic with regard to the kind of production efficiency he could achieve with the Model 3. The fact that they spent extra money making the car extra good didn't help. Specifically, the super safe and highly engineered chassis, the glass roof that improves safety, interior volume and aerodynamics (as well as making the cabin feel light and airy), the responsive suspension and electric steering with redundant power feeds, the low rolling friction Brembo brakes, the spun-cast and roll-forged 18" wheels, the durable, comfy seats engineered and produced in-house, the the durable and highly reliable powertrain, the high-tech silicon carbide power inverters, etc., etc. etc. It's really too "nice", too well equipped with high-quality components and too durable and long-lasting for a true mass-market car. But they knew they were going to disrupt some of the richest and most powerful people in the world so they couldn't show up to a gunfight with only a knife. The FUD was going to be running thick and strong and they needed to be ready for it. They needed a car beyond reproach. I think they made the safe choice although it definitely delayed the milestone of large and sustained profitability.
But remember the declining cost curves of BEV's. It's just a matter of time. And Tesla's position in the BEV space is basically beyond reproach based on the strength of its products to date. As long as Tesla keeps its development efforts of its core technologies and software ahead of the game and continues to increase manufacturing volumes and efficiencies, they will be able to offer more compelling BEV's than the competition which will make them untouchable for the foreseeable future. The declining cost curves will drop Tesla into a very enviable position. It didn't happen with Model 3 because Tesla played the safe side of the cost/quality curve because they knew their products would be under a microscope.
Wall Steet wants to see the money, not next year, right now. That's all they care about. They have no vision and no soul. They think EV's are just electric motors hooked up to a bunch of batteries (everyone knows the red wire goes to "+" and the black wire goes to "-"). How hard can it be, right? Didn't everyone play with electric motors as a kid?
So, I agree, no one knows exactly when the future value of Tesla will be fully recognized in the share price but you can bet it's a lot closer than it was in 2014. It's completely normal for speculative stocks like TSLA to not appreciate steadily and gradually but instead to do it in fits and spurts of 5 or 10 years, especially when you are not selling the latest fashions or the coolest new widget but, are building a global heavy manufacturing capability to take on established multi-billion dollar companies and deeply entrenched oil and gas interests. What Amazon has done is incredible. This is orders of magnitude more difficult. The really difficult part has been accomplished (technological lead and volume manufacturing with good gross margins). It's really just a matter of continuing to expand, release new models and watching the battery/motor/controller cost curve continue to decline. Wall Street won't come around until it's so obvious even Homer Simpson can see it.
Last edited:
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes, it might - or it might not.
All I'm saying is - I won't make investment decisions assuming quick GF3 ramp up. Any production we get there is an upside.
Getting back to original comments I was responding to about whether Tesla can sell enough Model 3s to hit 360k for 2019 - well, yes they can !
Even if there is zero output from GF3 - they can draw down the inventory - which normally happens in Q4. They have ~15k Model 3s in inventory. Instead of GF3 making 5k cars, they can sell inventory cars to hit the 360k mark.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Just like in Q3/Q4 '18 - I'd guess good profits and revenue boost. May be not to the same extent. After Q3 ER I'll model next year.
Excellent stuff. Have you seen this?
Storage developer plans to bring batteries to 149 MW Texas wind portfolio in SPP territory
Completely agree. The Y will not make any money in the first couple of production quarters as volumes ramp and fixed costs crush per unit margins.
There are other interesting synergies going on as well. In Texas, the big wind farms are out in the Panhandle and Trans-Pecos, and the big consumers are Austin, San Antonio, DFW and Houston in the east. In an amazing feat of forward thinking, the state authorize a huge upgrade in the transmission grid to move all that wind power
This may have been the catalyst to finally open the floodgates for Texas solar. There is a LOT of west Texas acreage that is well-suited for solar, and now the transmission capability is ready and waiting.
While you're at it would you mind telling me next week's lotto numbers?
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
