I have thought a little more about deliveries in the next few quarters. Here are my current estimates:
Some people will probably say 69K Model 3 deliveries in Q3 looks low. Why would it be less than Q2 2019? I can think of two reasons:
By the way, here is my accuracy in the last two quarters. Q1 was a difficult quarter. Model 3 deliveries were 10K lower than most people expected and there was a big drop in S/X deliveries. You can see the accuracy of all my estimates since Q2 2018 here.
- In Europe, there are no more reservation holders left. In Q2 2019, 18,279 Model 3s were sold in Europe and some of them were purchased by reservation holders. Let's say if 7K out of 18K were reservation holders, the demand in Europe going forward will be 11K, not 18K because you can't count reservation holders in Q3 anymore because there are no more reservation holders left. Tesla cleared the reservation queue in North America in Q4 2018 and in Europe in Q2 2019. Of course, demand keeps increasing. If sustainable demand was 11K in Europe, it might increase to 14K but I think it's still likely to be less than Q2. However, deliveries to the UK will make a difference. Therefore I will keep updating my Q3 delivery estimate. I will make another calculation around 10 Aug 2019 when we have the Eu numbers for July.
- In the US, some buyers who didn't need a new car yet still bought it in Q2 because they didn't want to lose out on federal tax credits which dropped by $1875 for deliveries after 30 June 2019.
Do you have a GoFundMe?Context is everything. Example: I own land that's been degraded by a millennium of overgrazing; while in ancient times it surely was home to birch forest, today it's 50% poor grassland and 50% gravel barrens (well, and some iron bogs, but they're good and shall remain boggy). The canyon slopes are subject to landslides as a result of the degradation. Simple restoration of the soil by fertilizer (it's highly phosphorus and nitrogen deficient), manure, or seeding leguminous plants can increase the amount of carbon in the soil (and overland) dramatically in 5-10 years or so - about 10t/ha aboveground and ~120t/ha underground to the gravel barrens, somewhat less for the poor grasslands. Reforestation (taiga species) would add another ~80t/ha aboveground and ~50t/ha underground over several decades. So long as the biome remains "forest", the carbon sequestered will not decline, as new trees replace ones that die - indeed, mature trees would continue to seed the barrens around them, expanding their groves and continuing to lock up more carbon. So long as grasslands are not allowed to become overgrazed again, their carbon, too, will remain locked up.
I have 8ha. That's a lot of carbon sequestration potential just from restoration and reforestation - something like 2000t when all is said and done. Honestly, the only thing that stops me from doing more is how much money I have to sink into things like soil restoration or buying seedlings. Even the smallest conifer seedlings I can get are ~$2 each, which would mean tens of thousands of dollars in reforestation costs. If I want larger trees that get the job done sooner, they're even more expensive. I've already spent many hundreds of dollars on fertilizer, and probably need to spend thousands more to get phosphorus up to normal. And whether I do nitrogen from synthetic fertilizers, paying for dozens of manure spreader truckloads, or legume planting, that too will come with a significant price tag.
Or to put it another way... cash does sequester carbon.
(On that note, if anyone wants to sequester some carbon, you're more than welcome to support restoration or reforestation plans on my land - I'd do all the grunt work, and send photos of your plantsRealistically, though, I expect this to just be a project that I slowly fund myself over the course of decades)
I think the estimates are on the very low side and deliveries will be 105k +/- 5%.I have thought a little more about deliveries in the next few quarters. Here are my current estimates:
Some people will probably say 69K Model 3 deliveries in Q3 looks low. Why would it be less than Q2 2019? I can think of two reasons:
By the way, here is my accuracy in the last two quarters. Q1 was a difficult quarter. Model 3 deliveries were 10K lower than most people expected and there was a big drop in S/X deliveries. You can see the accuracy of all my estimates since Q2 2018 here.
- In Europe, there are no more reservation holders left. In Q2 2019, 18,279 Model 3s were sold in Europe and some of them were purchased by reservation holders. Let's say if 7K out of 18K were reservation holders, the demand in Europe going forward will be 11K, not 18K because you can't count reservation holders in Q3 anymore because there are no more reservation holders left. Tesla cleared the reservation queue in North America in Q4 2018 and in Europe in Q2 2019. Of course, demand keeps increasing. If sustainable demand was 11K in Europe, it might increase to 14K but I think it's still likely to be less than Q2. However, deliveries to the UK will make a difference. Therefore I will keep updating my Q3 delivery estimate. I will make another calculation around 10 Aug 2019 when we have the Eu numbers for July.
- In the US, some buyers who didn't need a new car yet still bought it in Q2 because they didn't want to lose out on federal tax credits which dropped by $1875 for deliveries after 30 June 2019.
Finally, to gain business for his bank, that's what he is paid for, not? I really think he is so mad at Tesla because he was so unsuccessful and got no bonus.
So woteru sayin? Adam "Air Pockets" Jonas is right about bankwupsy in 2022?
I have thought a little more about deliveries in the next few quarters. Here are my current estimates:
Some people will probably say 69K Model 3 deliveries in Q3 looks low. Why would it be less than Q2 2019? I can think of two reasons:
By the way, here is my accuracy in the last two quarters. Q1 was a difficult quarter. Model 3 deliveries were 10K lower than most people expected and there was a big drop in S/X deliveries. You can see the accuracy of all my estimates since Q2 2018 here.
- In Europe, there are no more reservation holders left. In Q2 2019, 18,279 Model 3s were sold in Europe and some of them were purchased by reservation holders. Let's say if 7K out of 18K were reservation holders, the demand in Europe going forward will be 11K, not 18K because you can't count reservation holders in Q3 anymore because there are no more reservation holders left. Tesla cleared the reservation queue in North America in Q4 2018 and in Europe in Q2 2019. Of course, demand keeps increasing. If sustainable demand was 11K in Europe, it might increase to 14K but I think it's still likely to be less than Q2. However, deliveries to the UK will make a difference. Therefore I will keep updating my Q3 delivery estimate. I will make another calculation around 10 Aug 2019 when we have the Eu numbers for July.
- In the US, some buyers who didn't need a new car yet still bought it in Q2 because they didn't want to lose out on federal tax credits which dropped by $1875 for deliveries after 30 June 2019.
Well said. I think Troy’s early number was even quoted by @ZachShahan and I had suggested Zach to not rely on one estimate as individual estimates can be a hit or a miss.
OT:Context is everything. Example: I own land that's been degraded by a millennium of overgrazing; while in ancient times it surely was home to birch forest, today it's 50% poor grassland and 50% gravel barrens (well, and some iron bogs, but they're good and shall remain boggy). The canyon slopes are subject to landslides as a result of the degradation. Simple restoration of the soil by fertilizer (it's highly phosphorus and nitrogen deficient), manure, or seeding leguminous plants can increase the amount of carbon in the soil (and overland) dramatically in 5-10 years or so - about 10t/ha aboveground and ~120t/ha underground to the gravel barrens, somewhat less for the poor grasslands. Reforestation (taiga species) would add another ~80t/ha aboveground and ~50t/ha underground over several decades. So long as the biome remains "forest", the carbon sequestered will not decline, as new trees replace ones that die - indeed, mature trees would continue to seed the barrens around them, expanding their groves and continuing to lock up more carbon. So long as grasslands are not allowed to become overgrazed again, their carbon, too, will remain locked up.
I have 8ha. That's a lot of carbon sequestration potential just from restoration and reforestation - something like 2000t when all is said and done. Honestly, the only thing that stops me from doing more is how much money I have to sink into things like soil restoration or buying seedlings. Even the smallest conifer seedlings I can get are ~$2 each, which would mean tens of thousands of dollars in reforestation costs. If I want larger trees that get the job done sooner, they're even more expensive. I've already spent many hundreds of dollars on fertilizer, and probably need to spend thousands more to get phosphorus up to normal. And whether I do nitrogen from synthetic fertilizers, paying for dozens of manure spreader truckloads, or legume planting, that too will come with a significant price tag.
Or to put it another way... cash does sequester carbon.
(On that note, if anyone wants to sequester some carbon, you're more than welcome to support restoration or reforestation plans on my land - I'd do all the grunt work, and send photos of your plants
