Might be some inaccuracies, but 2019 has generally been something like this:
Price cuts, tax expiration - Jan 2nd
Layoffs - Jan 2nd
Price cuts again - Feb 6th
Layoffs again - Feb 8th
Price cuts again, S/X - March 1st
Retail staff compensation cuts, store closings - March 2nd
Layoffs again - April 6th
Actual Q1 results, unexpected $700M Q1 loss - April 24th
Price cuts again, S/X - May 21st
If demand was burgeoning, you staff up for it and increase prices. Not layoff and cut prices. So you can see the reasons for concern about demand.
And this is without getting into Elon shifting the bull case narrative to FSD, autonomy, 1 million Robotaxis next year, appreciating cars, insurance, leasing or the actual delivery numbers, Tesla's own missed guidance and the SP in 2019.
Outside this thread, there no question that Tesla has to show investors that North America demand is still there. I think it is there and there are a lot of new markets to enter. The longterm future is still bright. But 3 sales are not the fire that was expected and there are short term challenges before the FUD is overcome and widespread adoption occurs.
Good argument, but investors will take time to come around for FUD and undertow currents, and that will be an amazing run up. How about this narrative since we're all speculating here.
Tesla is selling everything they can make. But because they're juggling more vehicles, improving processes (and capacity), and upgrading vehicle designs, they are trying to match production to natural demand which is difficult I'm sure. So they have their little firesales and price drops along with some increases along the way as well. But if that balance is off, they need these incentives because inventory is really bad. Meanwhile, they're trying to smooth from the shock of digital demand increase from overseas. I see this as the most complex part of deliveries this year that made them sweat hard. I have trouble believing they have their whole supply chain perfectly aligned, so I'm sure there are times they have to build what they can,
battery supply included. All these variables, no wonder. And the evidence is how the "weeks for delivery" on the orders page never made any sense. This issue of people getting vehicles in weeks when there is clear demand elsewhere is sheer chaos.
And the obvious factor were that
incentives from the wealthy ended in Q4 (and Q1 is typically soft). Anyone who cared about (and could use) a write-off did so in 2018, including me on the 3. These are your S and X customers and so hi-end sales took a hit in Q1. Hey, good time to re-tool and take the big hit in Q1 on everything else as well.
Somehow we got to 6,000/mo+ (per Bloomberg) from efficiency improvements out of the line. Did you think they could have made more? Then they came out with the Raven to keep pushing the envelope on range and quality. Meanwhile, resources are under attack regarding service and support, so hiring was/is likely all over the map. Are we hearing about all the hiring? No, only cut-backs get leaked, even though thinning as we go is expected here to be nimble and quick. # of Openings are dynamic and in large numbers.
Sorry, when the capacity starts dropping for unknown reasons, then I'll believe your theory on demand. So just don't buy it, this car is amazing!