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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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There will be no major upwards movement until Q2 numbers, that’s it.

Increased deliveries of 3 and S&X are the only thing that will turn the stock.

That’s it.

Yeah....and I'd say Q2 might not even rebound that much. Will be lots of FUD about Tesla still posting a Loss for Q2 and that they don't believe Q3 will be profitable. I'd say we have a good 3-4 months of this trading range...…..great time to be growing your position ;)
 
This just looks like Elon making AP his number 1 priority (along with service) this year as you would expect now production is running smoothly.
Moving from 3 AP team heads reporting directly to him to at least 4 (including Kovac).

“Under Mr. Karpathy, Milan Kovac makes sure the vision software works well with hardware on the vehicle, including the Nvidia-made microchips that power it.”
I don't think we can make out much by one small change. It could simply be a way to reward someone who was thinking of moving to a new company.

Definitely Musk thinks FSD is the next big thing for him to concentrate on. Otherwise all these folks would be reporting to a someone 2 levels below CEO.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: Buddyroe
That's the extreme case, and not relevant. If the airlines see a drop in 20% that's catastrophic. You aren't seeing the big picture.


Bankruptcies are quite normal in the airline industry. They will adjust to the new (temporary) lower number. Population will increase and cost will decrease over time including electric planes.

You paint best case scenario for autonomous EVs and worst case scenario for airplane.

How about traffic jams ? Busy chargers?
 
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Reactions: neroden
For a while Tesla got into the habit to use price cut to stimulate quarterly demand. I feel that's not a great way to do business. Stick to your price, even if that means less cars get sold for that quarter. Should have never promised $35k car in the first place. Now we have the $35k car available through phone, effective cost is $26k, the car is amazing, still 50 times more people buy gasoline cars.

I probably will get tons of disagree on this. If I were running Tesla, I would give one week reminder, then remove the $35k version, increase price on every model by $5k, no more sales events. Offer more test drives, explain to people why these are the most compelling cars on the market (probably don't need to explain after test drives). At $45k, the SR+ is a steal. After incentives and gasoline savings it's more like $31k. The autopilot feature alone worth $5k. Those who can't afford today will save up to buy tomorrow.

Don't expand US production capacity until we get a long waiting list of real orders.

On Model S and X side, these are literally the best cars in the world by a wide margin. Charge the price accordingly. To reward existing owners, give them credits for future purchases, but never drop car price or option price.

Tesla shouldn't compete on (low) price, Tesla should be the undisputed best vehicle brand in the world, with reasonable price and image connected to it. If you can afford it, great, if you can't, settle for whatever you can afford, or get a second hand Tesla.

Right now the FSD option is $6k, after purchase $8k, then stick to this. If they drop those prices again, people will not trust their words in the future.


If Tesla was in vacuum and the public are fully embracing electric which is not the case.

Tesla's main goal is to get as many people sit and use their cars as possible. Once they go electric they will not go back. But there is a barrier of uncertainty when going electric (will I need to replace the battery after 3 years like my laptop?, Will it catch on fire like a Samsung phone for all those Fud articles? Are Tesla reliable? Can it work in the rain?...etc etc).

So you want to reduce barriers of entry and adjusting price is the best way.

The iPhone did not start out as 1k smart phones. They were affordable and once people are hooked into the ecosystem, they continue to give apple money like sheep's. But we have to remember that an alternative to an iPhone was a flip phone. People didn't need to deal with a lot of uncertainty when switching over. And even if they had uncertainty (like can I really type faster without physical keys? Or can I really live with a phone that has a 4hr battery life?) Was overcome by the fact that the alternative we're so much worse.

ICEs are not that much worse than a Tesla. Ice has pros and cons but it's not a game changer like a smart phone from flip phone. Maybe after a Tesla can drive itself but currently it's just a eco friendlier, smoother car. Nothing people can't live without.
 
Here's a double-whammy - CNBC Tesla page and it's from SA, and it's a fact!

View attachment 406192

Haha, you saw today how this seemingly positive news is turned around into something negative: a 2012 Model S? This must mean the used Tesla car business will hurt the company’s new car sales.

Carefully orchestrated new narrative by Adam Jonas.
 
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  • Funny
Reactions: Carl Raymond
I think this is an oversimplified assessment.

Question is will more people or less people be flying on domestic flights in 10 years.

My guess is more people will be flying than now.
Well duh. Anything less than a full white paper would be oversimplified.

Why do you think that more people will be flying in 10 years? US population is growing at a rate of less than 1% and that is likely to decrease. For your argument to work then autonomous vehicles will need to steal fewer customers than the airlines can gain. That does not seem likely. Domestic demand growth is somewhere in the 3-5% area now. I'm sure that FSD can steal more than a few percent of customers.

Stats: Air Travel Demand Growth Slows to 5.5%

This is purely a thought exercise and I'm hardly offended by people seeing it differently. Consider this, when the internet was in it's infancy, how many saw it and thought "this is going to put retail stores out of business" or "this is going to kill broadcast TV"? Very few (zero?). It's extremely likely that we are missing similar huge disruptions that are destined to occur.
 
Guangzhi Cao is no longer at Tesla according to his Linkedin as of Jan 2019, he is working for XPENG motors. Rest seem to still be on board.
He is the one got sued! Two former Apple engineers arrested for stealing from Apple before heading to XPeng. XPeng claims it has nothing to do with all these theft. And I believe them 100% /s
 
ICEs are not that much worse than a Tesla. Ice has pros and cons but it's not a game changer like a smart phone from flip phone. Maybe after a Tesla can drive itself but currently it's just a eco friendlier, smoother car. Nothing people can't live without.
First Generation Iphones didn't do much more than blackberries either. Just a sleeker presentation. The real differentiation came over time.
 
Really?

Demand is not an issue people say. Then Tesla is not producing enough.

Panasonic confirmed they are the supply bottleneck for production. There’s nothing Elon can do about that aside from try to shift mix to smaller battery pack options. The SR+ battery module/pack lines probably need to ramp further, but I don’t get the impression there is any huge production bottlenecks on Tesla’s side.

Model S/X refresh obviously had some issues which delayed the launch, but whether they were production ramp related or new component supply related I don’t know.
 
For a while Tesla got into the habit to use price cut to stimulate quarterly demand. I feel that's not a great way to do business. Stick to your price, even if that means less cars get sold for that quarter. Should have never promised $35k car in the first place. Now we have the $35k car available through phone, effective cost is $26k, the car is amazing, still 50 times more people buy gasoline cars.

I probably will get tons of disagree on this. If I were running Tesla, I would give one week reminder, then remove the $35k version, increase price on every model by $5k, no more sales events. Offer more test drives, explain to people why these are the most compelling cars on the market (probably don't need to explain after test drives). At $45k, the SR+ is a steal. After incentives and gasoline savings it's more like $31k. The autopilot feature alone worth $5k. Those who can't afford today will save up to buy tomorrow.

Don't expand US production capacity until we get a long waiting list of real orders.

On Model S and X side, these are literally the best cars in the world by a wide margin. Charge the price accordingly. To reward existing owners, give them credits for future purchases, but never drop car price or option price.

Tesla shouldn't compete on (low) price, Tesla should be the undisputed best vehicle brand in the world, with reasonable price and image connected to it. If you can afford it, great, if you can't, settle for whatever you can afford, or get a second hand Tesla.

Right now the FSD option is $6k, after purchase $8k, then stick to this. If they drop those prices again, people will not trust their words in the future.

Tesla's goal isn't to become the electric Mercedes Benz.

But to become ubiquitous and transition the world to sustainable energy ASAP.
 
So any positive catalysts coming up? Insane that we are down $150 from all time highs.
Yes, lots, but not next week. The stock doesn't always move based upon big catalysts. Take a look at the big run that started in December 2016 after a long drop over several months. I don't think there was any big catalyst news-wise. It just got going. I think we later found out Tencent was doing some buying at that time. At the time, it just seemed like it was finally starting to climb again. The way TSLA trades has a lot to do with the distribution of the stock. It has been moving, like a freight train, down for many months. Even when it's ready to bottom, it takes a little time to stop the momentum. As far as I can tell, most of what is going on with the stock now is related to shorts and traders. It's lower volume stuff. Short interest is wayyyy back up. It won't stay there. Lots of "weak" shorts playing the momentum at this point. The stock needs a solid nudge upwards to start the process of shorts covering, reinforcing the climb. Once it breaks above the downward channel, that will happen in an amplified fashion. We could drop further still before that happens, who knows. The technical pattern is there, waiting to support a climb, the stock just needs a good nudge. We can see that most who are going to sell or short have done so. There is now a scarcity of others ready to sell or short, barring a macro collapse. There is definitely not a scarcity of buyers if the stock shows signs of life. Something will provide that, but we can't predict what it will be. It's very possible that it's not going to be the obvious thing. News/stock support has a way of being there when the market is ready for the stock to climb.
 
Bankruptcies are quite normal in the airline industry. They will adjust to the new (temporary) lower number. Population will increase and cost will decrease over time including electric planes.

You paint best case scenario for autonomous EVs and worst case scenario for airplane.

How about traffic jams ? Busy chargers?
How is that different at all than what I said? I'm painting the steady state scenario for airplane travel. There is nothing new on the horizon that will change how they operate. I didn't say airlines would disappear, but that they will be under financial pressure.
 
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ICEs are not that much worse than a Tesla. Ice has pros and cons but it's not a game changer like a smart phone from flip phone. Maybe after a Tesla can drive itself but currently it's just a eco friendlier, smoother car. Nothing people can't live without.

Until they have owned or driven a Tesla long enough to get used to it and every time they drive an ice car feels like a disappointment or at best antiquated.
 
How is that different at all than what I said? I'm painting the steady state scenario for airplane travel. There is nothing new on the horizon that will change how they operate. I didn't say airlines would disappear, but that they will be under financial pressure.

You said catastrophic for the airline industry.

To me that implies more than reorganization under bankruptcy for some airlines and the industry moving on. That happens once a generation in the airline industry.

VW GM and Toyota don't declare bankruptcy once a generation.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: neroden
Eventually (as always with Musk).
But, just another public prediction on Twitter about something happening by a certain time period....

0% chance by end of this year.

I think many people, even Tesla fans, will agree you have to add at the very least 6 months to any of his time predictions.
I'd say it's more like 3 months probably, 6 months definitely.