Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stretch2727]

Assume this was part of Drew B's role in the past.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788958004550729875

 

[AndrewZ]

Actually it adds a lot of value. It's saved me from two accidents. I call that good value for money.

These are things that passive safety features wouldn’t have helped prevent?

I’ve never been in an accident beyond a fender scrape and can’t recall two instances where I would have needed saving in 20 years of driving so seemingly not a ton of value to add for me there.

 

[GatorMeat]

At this new low price I’m pretty sure it’s profitable to deploy for arbitrage, not just frequency regulation. People like Matt Smith who said Megapacks only sold because utilities billed “cost plus” should now be believers.
e.g. 300 full cycles at 33cents profit per kWh and it’s paid for. A thousand cycles at 10cents, is still fast ROI.
Fill up on solar, sell into evening is one cycle. Wind at night, morning peak, a possible second. Per day!

So when will Tesla PowerWall adjust it's price to $1,350?

 

[thx1139]

The most of the 500 that were laid off on the supercharging team located potential sites and negotiated with the site owners. Local contractors including electrical engineers pulled permits and did the job site construction. Obviously Tesla supplied the charging equipment.

Like I said lets see how it goes. Those local contractors certainly had people at Tesla they were communicating with.

 

[unk45]

...
It's easy to tell the difference between the car driving itself, and the smoothness of keeping within the lanes on curves, than when I'm driving and I, naturally, try to hug the lanes on curves. It felt safer to be on FSD and got more satisfaction of feeling fresh after a 30 minute highway drive. Hope that helps...

on FSD as a likely significant contribution to profits:
First, I still count nothing for RoboTaxi precisely because even with technology 'perfected' there are innumerable impediments to widespread adoption, all well documented;
Second, since 2015 with first Autopilot I have considered Tesla well ahead of competitors. Nothing has changed in that respect, Tesla still is ahead in generalized non-geofenced operation;
Third, I have now had some time with FSD 12.3.6. It is a huge advance, no question. Now it is smooth and consistent, mostly. It does have major weaknesses in even highway routing within complex intersections (my measure of merit on this is Miami's Golden Glades (look it up). FSD even now cannot turn correctly, even for the easiest parts. It is totally incapable of final entry and exit from urban building access.
Fourth, With these limitations I still think buyers would pay for it now were it promoted well. It is not!
Fifth, Constant overselling since 2015 is making existing impediments worse.

In my opinion there is zero chance of anything approaching RoboTaxi to be delivered in a generalized form within this decade. That will NOT happen, in my opinion.

Further I considered the original labeling of Autopilot was perfectly appropriate. It was and remains as definite aid to drivers and has improved in almost every update. It is not anything remotely approaching Full Self Driving.

Were this product properly positioned and promoted I think it was have very high acceptance. However it is promoted as something it is not and the company seems bent on positioning further to something that will not happen anytime soon.

Finally, I use FSD on every drive and am happy I bought it. I did not buy hype, I bought reality. The reality is very, very good.

As for those who claim others are equivalent right now I have a short comment: Don't be ridiculous! Anybody who's actually tried several others and present-issue FSD would need to be delusional to say Tesla is not better.

The HYPE is the problem. not the product! This is a gigantic marketing failure, a major failure in Positioning. IN sum, sell the product you have, not the product you sometime hope to have.

 

[Zero CO2]

https://twitter.com/x/status/862216356258758662

https://twitter.com/x/status/862215874186428416

https://twitter.com/x/status/994760815361245184

For those who take Musk's tweets as definitive/authoritative "proof," consider the above three tweets, all of which are celebrating Elonversaries today.

They were all false.

this regurgitating every elon tweet that did not pan out is really not useful .... time frame matters over time he may prove to be correct ... the vision is what matters

 

[Blue horseshoe]

on FSD as a likely significant contribution to profits:
First, I still count nothing for RoboTaxi precisely because even with technology 'perfected' there are innumerable impediments to widespread adoption, all well documented;
Second, since 2015 with first Autopilot I have considered Tesla well ahead of competitors. Nothing has changed in that respect, Tesla still is ahead in generalized non-geofenced operation;
Third, I have now had some time with FSD 12.3.6. It is a huge advance, no question. Now it is smooth and consistent, mostly. It does have major weaknesses in even highway routing within complex intersections (my measure of merit on this is Miami's Golden Glades (look it up). FSD even now cannot turn correctly, even for the easiest parts. It is totally incapable of final entry and exit from urban building access.
Fourth, With these limitations I still think buyers would pay for it now were it promoted well. It is not!
Fifth, Constant overselling since 2015 is making existing impediments worse.

In my opinion there is zero chance of anything approaching RoboTaxi to be delivered in a generalized form within this decade. That will NOT happen, in my opinion.

Further I considered the original labeling of Autopilot was perfectly appropriate. It was and remains as definite aid to drivers and has improved in almost every update. It is not anything remotely approaching Full Self Driving.

Were this product properly positioned and promoted I think it was have very high acceptance. However it is promoted as something it is not and the company seems bent on positioning further to something that will not happen anytime soon.

Finally, I use FSD on every drive and am happy I bought it. I did not buy hype, I bought reality. The reality is very, very good.

As for those who claim others are equivalent right now I have a short comment: Don't be ridiculous! Anybody who's actually tried several others and present-issue FSD would need to be delusional to say Tesla is not better.

The HYPE is the problem. not the product! This is a gigantic marketing failure, a major failure in Positioning. IN sum, sell the product you have, not the product you sometime hope to have.

0 chance in the next decade for robotaxi? I'm definitely betting against that premise. Reading your entire post I can see why you've sold your tesla holdings as you see them as a failing auto company with software that will never achieve what Elon aspires it to become.

But sure call it hype. That's the beauty of investing and trading. My estimation of what Tesla will achieve is unbelievable to some people and in the end time will tell who was on the right side of the trade.

 

[GatorMeat]

Sigh what’s wrong with these people?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788883769186783435

everybody wants to cosplay

 

[GatorMeat]

Well now you know:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788883769186783435

But this is what Trump promised the oil execs at Mar-a-lago he would do to Austin and Fremont if they gave him billions each to get elected.

 

[GatorMeat]

I don't see how a PR department could have helped. A PR department would need to check with Elon before putting out a statement. But Elon apparently wasn't ready to put out that clarifying statement with real numbers until now. So what would the PR department do that Elon couldn't just do himself?

I guess the other 499 companies in the S&P500 are morons for having a PR Deparment?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

People think Tesla’s going to stop making cars

That doesn't seem unreasonable to think that since Elon liked a post stating that Tesla is pivoting from selling cars to selling rides

 

[GatorMeat]

Do people really see this as a thing for typical corner gas stations in urban areas? I can see the transit routes have better food, shopping, haircuts, etc, since someone would have to wait for about 20 minutes, but in urban/even suburbs environment, do people really want to eat/get a haircut at a supercharger location (or imagine your local BP gas station...and pay whatever is the going charge rate of the SuC operator) vs. charging at home/near the house?

I suppose I just can't see myself ever wanting that, again, outside of transit corridor chargers. These BP locations are also not the massive sites that say, a mall or something like a Buckees has.

BP and other oil companies don't develop/operate gas stations. These are all 3rd party developers and owner/operators. Gas station owners aren't going to start developing strip malls. Two different businesses. Strip malls already have SuC

 

[2daMoon]

I’ve sent a fair amount of time battling unwarranted FUD re: Tesla’s and EV’s in general on several social media sites.

FUD should not be assumed to be unwarranted or used in a derogatory manner. Fear, uncertainty and doubt may be quite justified when a company’s actions - including those of its leader - warrant such feelings. To never feel fear, uncertainty or doubt as to Tesla’s prospects or Elon’s actions seems to me unhealthy - and potentially risky.

That makes good sense.

What I consider FUD is "engineered" fear, uncertainty, and doubt.

As opposed to the organically grown, gluten free varieties of fear, uncertainty and doubt that is found growing wild in nature.

The trick is telling them apart when they are sitting side by side on the grocer's shelf. It helps to read the label and check the source.

 

[GatorMeat]

Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

This wiki belongs to the thread EU Market situation and outlook. Click HERE (CTRL-click to open in new tab) to add new data using a Google form. Any forum member can contribute. We encourage you to do so! Your entry will appear after the data is double-checked by other volunteers. If the data...

teslamotorsclub.com

Final EU April sales are in. <14k, which is down from January and April 2023.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787801714696798551

Where are/were the ~50k "in transit" vehicles as of 3/31? Of the April sales data we have they do not seem to appear, unless Tesla just stopped manufacturing vehicles for awhile.

50k in transit was obviously BS that was thrown out there for Tesla PR (youtubers and twitter fanbois). They already had 96k in inventory going into last Q and inventory piled up at every delivery center.

 

[CitizenKane]

I wouldn't be surprised if the strike there is part of the problem. (It is hard to pay your invoices or respond to notices if the post office refuses to deliver them to you.)

Hardly any business in Sweden uses paper invoices any more. It's all digital.

 

[Zero CO2]

it is becoming very clear we have changing of the guard for Tesla Investors ...

1st generation ... EV /AP /SuC play
2nd Generation ... FSD/AI/Robots/Energy

the car business is a terrible business.. I would never invest in a car company ... i invested in Tesla in 2017 as a technology company ... the vehicles are just one way to deliver the Software ... Megapacks and Powerwalls are another way ... these are all industries ripe for disruption by SW ....Bots will be next ... Tesla best growth is ahead of it ..

sorry to see the Car company investors dropping out ... i think in hindsight this will have been a huge mistake

one other anecdote

after driving FSD beta and FSD Supervised for around 2 years ... one thing it has highlighted for me is just how bad human drivers are ...it forces you to notice this ... at some point soon it will be negligent to allow humans to drive ... sorry to say this but it is a fact ...

a world where RT/FSD vehicles are all over actually obeying traffic controls and the rules of the road ... will be a much safer world ... i know the path to get there is a long one

 

[GatorMeat]

Or are they just mindless hoardes of easily influenced individuals looking for any excuse to cause disruption? Don't wish to get political, we see a lot of that with the free you know where protestors. Many of them don't care about or even understand "the cause", they just want to be part of it.

It's very similar to the crowds at Trump rallies. It's a social event for morons.

 

[Knightshade]

this regurgitating every elon tweet that did not pan out is really not useful .... time frame matters over time he may prove to be correct ... the vision is what matters

FWIW I generally agree constantly trotting out here's all the forward-looking claims Elon made that never happened isn't useful by itself.

But when it's in direct reply to people pointing at a NEW forward-looking claim and insisting it's gospel will-happen truth it seems very relevant.


Sometimes a thing just doesn't work out to be practical (solar roof seems to be in this category- also that battery swap station Tesla operated for like 90 seconds back in the day))

Sometimes priorities change (presumably this is what happened with Elons claim they'd fix all the gaps in service center coverage years ago that never happened)

Sometimes it's just really late (self parking for non USS cars for example) but DOES get done



Elons ability and willingness to pivot from something he previously intended to do when he realizes he needs to, and often do it quickly, is a strength of both him and his companies.... But as such- pretending "Elon said this thing in the future would happen, therefore it's certain to happen" is... not an accurate statement. His future looking statements are often very optimistic with aggressive timetables rather than "highly specific locked in plans". And being aware of that seems pretty relevant to investors.

BP and other oil companies don't develop/operate gas stations. These are all 3rd party developers and owner/operators.

That's not actually quite true... some oil companies DO operate some gas stations. (though not the majority of them)

In fact it was big news fairly recently that Shell is planning to close some 1000 of their owned and operated stations and moving toward EV chargers-

Shell Announces Closure of 1,000 Gas Stations, Adjusts Focus to EV Charging - Intersolar & Energy Storage North America

Shell plans to close 1,000 of its retail gas stations between 2024 and 2025. The closures represent the company shifting focus and utilizing its resources to expand services for EVs.

www.intersolar.us

 

[UkNorthampton]

Have I missed all the stories of 12V battery failures from running nonstop?

It's illegal to run a car engine (unless in process of driving) in some countries. Eg rule 123 of highway code.

A taxi that's waiting for a new passenger should have its engine off. That would kill many ICE 12 volts.

 

[winfield100]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788946358935904734

Alleged FSD trial conversion data. So far looks like a <2% conversion

Mildly OT
@DarkandStormy
a _casual_ =>glance<= at the graph shows the the =>top<= of the Y axis is ~10%, would not 2% then actually be 20% of 10%? 1/5th take rate seems more like it unless I have lost reading skills

=>(simpler, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10) is the total Y axis)<=

may i suggest Edward Tufte's book on "visual display of data..." the one with Charles Joseph Minard's graph of Napoleons march to Moscow & back on the cover