Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Two-rocks]

Perhaps my philosophy on investing might be of use to some on this thread.

Or not.

Counterpoint, I agree with Musk on most of his statements, all while understanding the human nature of humans. At a minimum, I prefer human vs "suits" to pander to wall street.

Musk or Marry (who is a real leader BTW) ... I'll take Musk every day of the week.

Will be adding many more shares - soon ...

 

[aubreymcfato]

I took the bait and looked in that thread for the reference linked above. Had to scroll back a page to find it, posted by someone who has consistently been championing diesel trucks in the Tesla Semi thread. Not that this is a bad thing. Diesel trucks are the predominant mode of transport for goods, worldwide, as are diesel powered trains.

This ends the TLDR section.

Perhaps you are unaware of the fact that Tesla manufactures automobiles? A LOT of them. People don't come to the factory to pick them up, rather, Tesla has a novel approach of bringing the car to a location near the buyer.

Did I mention how they make a bunch of these cars?

The process of transitioning to renewable energy is more than merely the throwing of a switch. There will be a period of time required to accomplish this. Look up the definition of "transition" if this needs further explanation. Many, including Elon, believe this will take decades to achieve. I've even heard it said that "prototyping is easy, and production is hard" in regard to the manufacturing aspect.

Clearly, it is possible for someone who hasn't been following the company to jump to the conclusion that as soon as a prototype is developed it can immediately be mass produced and distributed in numbers significant enough to displace all existing vehicles which do the same job. Maybe, you are one of those people?

If so, an exercise in something popularly called "reality" dictates that traditional methods of product delivery will continue to be the preferred method until those manufacturing an EV replacement get costs, infrastructure (charging, service, etc.), and production ramped to the levels needed to support it becoming the dominant choice.

In the case of auto manufacture and delivery the work will be performed by truck or train, and often a combination of both. Additionally, trucks will be used to bring supplies to manufacture the autos, as well as to move the trailers from the "Warehouse On Wheels" locations to the factory docks.

A simple application of what some term "common sense" would quickly reveal how Tesla will not be able to replace their several fleets of diesel trucks in any short time period based simply upon their having a working prototype that has been delivered to one customer for testing and development. Tesla is at that useful stage of R&D which is necessary before mass production begins where bugs are discovered and improvements are made.

Yet, despite this relatively easy concept based upon well-known metrics regarding all the many aspects that will go into transitioning from diesel to electric trucks, you avoid these considerations and ask for some other sort of proof?

Such an expectation of someone "proving you wrong" is an absurd notion.

An elementary examination of the myriad factors involved would provide more than sufficient evidence to explain why Tesla will very likely find it necessary to continue to buy diesel trucks to do this work for many years to come. Their production and delivery requirements are growing at a rate that exceeds all current BEV Truck manufacturing capabilities world wide.

It this too complex of a scenario to grok, in order to explain what prevents anyone from snapping their fingers and replacing all diesel trucks overnight?

I admit my post was provocative on purpose: I really think the Semi is underappreciated as a product and is one of the mightiest levers of the transition (yes, I know the meaning of the word). In this thread we recently spent several pages talking about the Superbowl ads - which Tesla never does and never did. We often speak about topics that are just tangential to Tesla. The Semi is at the core of Tesla mission. Probably even more important than the Cybertruck, mission-wise (it has a global market, the CT doesn't).

Now, on topic: Tesla delivered the first Semi to Pepsi on the 1st December 2022. It's February 13th 2024, and allegedly not even 100 have been produced.
If I recall correctly, this is is the first time a Tesla vehicle has been subject to this amount of testing. It's more than a year!
I'm not even talking about a ramp up of tens of thousands Semis per year, but at this point I was sure Tesla would have produced tens per week, maybe a 100. Didn't you expect to see a few thousands of Semis on the road, by 2024?
Of course my layman's estimates are worthless, but this is exactly why I asked to the better minds here: what do we know? why the delay - or at least, why so much testing, if the range is good enough (@Artful Dodger kindly provided a source)?
I think these are reasonable questions to ask ourselves as investors, in a forum like this, for a product like this.
I'm quite baffled by the absence of curiosity about the Semis, to be honest.

 

[Artful Dodger]

While folks were distracted by hand-wringing, CPI came in hot:

TUESDAY, FEB. 13	Report:		Actual:	Forecast:	Previous:
8:30 am	Consumer price index	Jan.	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%
8:30 am	Core CPI	Jan.	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%
8:30 am	CPI year over year		3.1%	2.9%	3.4%
8:30 am	Core CPI year over year		3.9%	3.7%	3.9%

P.S. The FED is fueling the inflation they claim to worry about in rent and mortgages now by keeping interest rates high. This is deliberate. Somebody benefits. TL;dr Shortzes

 

[Artful Dodger]

why the delay - or at least, why so much testing, if the range is good enough (@Artful Dodger kindly provided a source)?

It's the batteries, and the raw materials to make the batteries.. More profitable to use 937 KWhrs to build Models Y (~$120K for 12 LR) than building just 1 Semi (maybe $50K ?)

Tesla will get it done, don't worry. 4680s are ramping in Austin, other sites will follow once cybercell lines are proven. Meanwhile Semi is getting its own high-volume stand-alone factory in Nevada. It'll be ready about the same time as Tesla's battery cathode plant in Austin and lithium refinery in Corpus Christi come on line.

P.S. There's a simple, easy-to-remember heuristic for predicting when Tesla will bring new models to production: When they can be built PROFITABLY.

C

 

[Artful Dodger]

A Tesla news story just dropped on CNBC, or just using the inflation report to take some profit. Pick your choice.

Lol, unless that hit piece on Elon affected the entire rest of the S&P 500 equally, I'll pick Door #1.

S&P 500 Companies - S&P 500 Index Components by Market Cap

 

[Artful Dodger]

Gap filled, look out below, wheee* go shorteee...

You seeee, the $EC only looks for 'discontinuities' in trading across days, not for signs of obvious manipulations. It's a licence to steal print money for hedgies.

 

[Snerruc]

Just to be clear, you're here to tell us you believe owning TSLA is not an investment, and you don't recommend owning any of it?

Correct for me. Others may feel differently. Apparently I value peace of mind more than some others do. However, don’t assume that my philosophy hasn’t done reasonably well. It’s surprising how some stocks held for 30-40 years do, especially if they have dividend reinvestment. Ironic isn’t it that something bought foe entertainment can have unexpected consequences.

 

[2daMoon]

I admit my post was provocative on purpose: I really think the Semi is underappreciated as a product and is one of the mightiest levers of the transition (yes, I know the meaning of the word). In this thread we recently spent several pages talking about the Superbowl ads - which Tesla never does and never did. We often speak about topics that are just tangential to Tesla. The Semi is at the core of Tesla mission. Probably even more important than the Cybertruck, mission-wise (it has a global market, the CT doesn't).

Now, on topic: Tesla delivered the first Semi to Pepsi on the 1st December 2022. It's February 13th 2024, and allegedly not even 100 have been produced.
If I recall correctly, this is is the first time a Tesla vehicle has been subject to this amount of testing. It's more than a year!
I'm not even talking about a ramp up of tens of thousands Semis per year, but at this point I was sure Tesla would have produced tens per week, maybe a 100. Didn't you expect to see a few thousands of Semis on the road, by 2024?
Of course my layman's estimates are worthless, but this is exactly why I asked to the better minds here: what do we know? why the delay - or at least, why so much testing, if the range is good enough (@Artful Dodger kindly provided a source)?
I think these are reasonable questions to ask ourselves as investors, in a forum like this, for a product like this.
I'm quite baffled by the absence of curiosity about the Semis, to be honest.

The thing I keep in mind is the crucial part of the recipe for Semi success, which is the availability of an established charging infrastructure.

This was an important part of the plan for the introduction of the cars, and is more critical before long haul semi sales will be attractive. Granted, short haul applications can install their own chargers, but this raises the buy-in costs significantly, and limits Semi sales to those large short haul fleets with large budgets and a desire to make the transition to electric..

It seems logical to expect to see production ramping along with a simultaneous ramp of the charging infrastructure that is needed to be in place before buyers who don't intend to install their own Megachargers will see a completed set of ingredients to make that dish appealing.

These chargers will require an order of magnitude greater resources than do those for cars, both in regard to electrical needs and real estate required for tractor-trailer rigs to access them. It would not surprise me to learn Tesla is working hard to establish a charging network in parallel with getting the Semi factory designed and constructed. Both of which will take time.

The current pace is likely as should be expected when moving toward this eventuality. We can watch for press releases of Tesla signing with truck stop franchises the way they have with convenience store franchises as a signal of progress and an increase of the pace toward wide scale deployment of Tesla Semi.

Edit: also, see the post from @Artful Dodger on the battery aspect, which ties in with both Semi charger deployment (as many may require Megapacks) and the Semi production ramp.
As well as the post by @unk45 regarding reliability requirements testing and development for this product's unique application.

 

[AudubonB]

My long-suffering patience has ended. Further posts that do not give even the pretense of being about Tesla are not tolerated; The latest in a large # of OT entries is gone. I’m not going to crawl through the many prior pages containing scores of similar ones…but I’ll not object if another Mod had more time on his hands, either.

Mod edit: I marked them all and will delete. --ggr

Deviant Mod : My longstanding distaste for memes crumbles when I envision a dog next to an OT hydrant.....

 

[unk45]

I admit my post was provocative on purpose: I really think the Semi is underappreciated as a product and is one of the mightiest levers of the transition (yes, I know the meaning of the word). In this thread we recently spent several pages talking about the Superbowl ads - which Tesla never does and never did. We often speak about topics that are just tangential to Tesla. The Semi is at the core of Tesla mission. Probably even more important than the Cybertruck, mission-wise (it has a global market, the CT doesn't).

Now, on topic: Tesla delivered the first Semi to Pepsi on the 1st December 2022. It's February 13th 2024, and allegedly not even 100 have been produced.
If I recall correctly, this is is the first time a Tesla vehicle has been subject to this amount of testing. It's more than a year!
I'm not even talking about a ramp up of tens of thousands Semis per year, but at this point I was sure Tesla would have produced tens per week, maybe a 100. Didn't you expect to see a few thousands of Semis on the road, by 2024?
Of course my layman's estimates are worthless, but this is exactly why I asked to the better minds here: what do we know? why the delay - or at least, why so much testing, if the range is good enough (@Artful Dodger kindly provided a source)?
I think these are reasonable questions to ask ourselves as investors, in a forum like this, for a product like this.
I'm quite baffled by the absence of curiosity about the Semis, to be honest.

One major but often ignored fact is that the normal use patterns for Class Six Over-the-road haulers in the us and their equivalents, especially TIR, in Europe, and the Australian Road trains..all expect around the equivalent ">one million miles" with a single major overhaul. In lighter duty, as in the Pepsi case they'll still expect something close to that. Clearly Tesla Semi is designed to optimize for that while integrating the myriad incompatibly software solutions in the process. Those needs quite obviously require substantial real world testing and serious attention to every single failure or friction point. After all, freight hauling, everywhere is drastically risk intolerant, and generally not adept at new technologies.

It is completely unsurprising to me that Tesla Semi takes years while Daimler brands offer myriad options in urban haulers and more, Volvo, Cummins, VW etc and many more have mature offerings while BYD is selling more BEV urban busses and trains than seemingly anyone else.

So, Tesla chose the most demanding single category, the one that does not ever have close-by maintenance and repair. That takes time, but has some amazing impact once it's mature. That is the price of serious effort to change the most resistant markets, such as, say, reusable rockets.

For active traders this approach gives excellent volatility and lots of opportunity to speculate. Only the patient long term types will endure the infernal waits.

That does not make this the wisest course for share price stability nor even necessarily the most profitable choices. Choosing the hard cases does advance the mission. The investor question is only whether we are willing to wait for the solution to finally appear en masse.

 

[heltok]

Is that the BYD effect. They’re making inroads in AUS/NZ aren’t they ?

There was a 7000NZD=4250USD tax incentive that expired at the of 2023. Many orders were moved forward from 2024Q1 to 2023Q4 to take advantage of the incentive. Add to that EV now also have to pay a Road Usage Charge(RUC) like all other cars. The new government reallocated the previous tax incentives to incentivise public charging buildout.

BYD et al are also suffering from a steep decline in sales. But I suspect sales will start to recover somewhat.

 

[GhostSkater]

Maybe now is the time for the board to put together a golden parachute deal for him and get him out of the company. A year or two from now maybe too late.

Sometimes I have to rub my eyes because I can’t believe what I see posted here

 

[Krugerrand]

Right. My emotions got the best of me when I woke up to his posts as this is a topic I feel strongly about. I didn’t panic sell or anything, came here first to see what people thought. While I still respect Musk, I am trying to separate the good from his politics as he makes it really difficult to like him sometimes. Lol.

Simple fix: stop following his politics. If that means unfollowing his account then do it. Anything of Tesla import is posted in this thread. The man can’t even pull a random t-shirt out of his dirty laundry basket without it being dissected to death here. You won’t miss anything important to your long term investment by not following his every tweet.

Hard fix: stop having an opinion. I’ve said it before, try not having an opinion a time or two. It’ll lighten your emotional load and give you a whole different perspective on life and moving through it.

Hardest fix: stop thinking it’s your business to know/interpret what he or anyone else is thinking about all the bloody time, regardless of it being put out to the world.

What a mess humans have put ourselves in. And we just keep doing it over and over and over again. Will we ever stop digging our societal graves?

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm quite baffled by the absence of curiosity about the Semis, to be honest.

I’m curious. I’m just using my inner curiosity voice instead of my outside speculation voice at present. Something about patience being rewarded.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maybe now is the time for the board to put together a golden parachute deal for him and get him out of the company. A year or two from now maybe too late.

Ha! Got $55Bills in your pocket? That's not a Gold parachute; that's a milligram of antimatter.

 

[scaesare]

The thing I keep in mind is the crucial part of the recipe for Semi success which is the availability of an established charging infrastructure.

This was an important part of the plan for the introduction of the cars, and is more critical before long haul semi sales will be attractive. Granted, short haul applications can install their own chargers, but this raises the buy-in costs significantly, and limits Semi sales to those large short haul fleets with large budgets and a desire to make the transition to electric..

It seems logical to expect to see production ramping along with a simultaneous ramp of the charging infrastructure that is needed to be in place before buyers who don't intend to install their own Megachargers will see a completed set of ingredients to make that dish appealing.

These chargers will require an order of magnitude greater resources than do those for cars, both in regard to electrical needs and real estate required for tractor-trailer rigs to access them. It would not surprise me to learn Tesla is working hard to establish a charging network in parallel with getting the Semi factory designed and constructed. Both of which will take time.

The current pace is likely as should be expected when moving toward this eventuality. We can watch for press releases of Tesla signing with truck stop franchises the way they have with convenience store franchises as a signal of progress and an increase of the pace toward wide scale deployment of Tesla Semi.

Edit: also, see the post from @Artful Dodger on the battery aspect, which ties in with both Semi charger deployment and Semi production ramp.

Agree... some other factors I think may play in to a deliberately conservative ramp:

- Use cases: Commercial vehicles often have a duty-cycle far greater than a consumer vehicle... on the order of 10X. 1000's of miles a week is not uncommon. They will probably want to gauge the practicality of their intended plans for use, charging, range, etc...in a variety of circumstances...

- Cost to address/remedy issues: with something nearing a MWh of cells on board, new driveline, etc... there's a potentially large cost to address issues once the trucks are in the field. Not only to Tesla, but in lost productivity (hence goodwill) to customers

- Production: We know Tesla is hyper focused on efficient production... given the low initial volume, it's likely much of the truck was had built. Given that production volume even at full-tilt will be significantly smaller than a consumer vehicle, they may be tuning for the sweet-spot for how much they want to build an automated line.

- Longevity: The use-case mentioned above also has impact on how stuff fares. Cell cycles, component lifetimes, etc... they will want to gauge that.


Tesla, up to this point, has been in te consumer vehicle space. Commercial/business stuff is a whole different ball game... treading carefully makes good sense... screwing it up by rushing too quickly and getting a bad rep in a smaller, tighter market can be hard to overcome...

(on edit: I se @unk45 said some similar while I was composing... I agree )

 

[Mengy]

Maybe now is the time for the board to put together a golden parachute deal for him and get him out of the company. A year or two from now maybe too late.

I'm curious, do you think Tesla as a company is doing poorly to warrant this, or are you basing this desire for Musk to leave solely on your own emotional reasons?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Sometimes I have to rub my eyes because I can’t believe what I see posted here

I'm just gonna eat this Tesla Mushroom and make it all go away.

It’s gone in case anyone wanted to buy it, that’s how GOOD a Tesla is!

 

[AudubonB]

On topic but without extensive elaboration.
I not only cannot come up with any good reason to vote for any action that would provide Mr Musk a 25% control - either by owning outright one-quarter of its outstanding shares or by possessing by any other means that number of votes….except by the same method that I use: purchasing such shares in the open market.

Never in my very long history of stock market investing have I ever heard of a CEO who does not prioritize the welfare of his company and its share price over his personal beliefs.

Completely separate from the above is his enigmatic announced position: that his current ownership position does not adequately provide him the amount of control he considers necessary to thwart any others’ actions contrary to his desiderata.

First, my reaction to that is of bewilderment toward that unabashedly anti-capitalist approach….unfortunately, it is difficult to parse it as other than “capital markets for you but not for me”.

Second, whence 25%? Why not 15%? Or 26%?
I’ll suggest a number: 50%+1 share.

Whatever the number, the extent to which I will vote for any action that provides him more shares is going to be a function of how well he demonstrates the extent to which he devotes his time and his energy to this company. How much of that he spends at SpaceX, at BoringCo, at Neuralink, at any other company in which he may have an interest; with his family, …..none of that matters with respect to this vote (what he does at SpaceX I need separate wrt my own interests there).

 

[scaesare]

On topic but without extensive elaboration.
I not only cannot come up with any good reason to vote for any action that would provide Mr Musk a 25% control - either by owning outright one-quarter of its outstanding shares or by possessing by any other means that number of votes….except by the same method that I use: purchasing such shares in the open market.

Never in my very long history of stock market investing have I ever heard of a CEO who does not prioritize the welfare of his company and its share price over his personal beliefs.

Completely separate from the above is his enigmatic announced position: that his current ownership position does not adequately provide him the amount of control he considers necessary to thwart any others’ actions contrary to his desiderata.

First, my reaction to that is of bewilderment toward that unabashedly anti-capitalist approach….unfortunately, it is difficult to parse it as other than “capital markets for you but not for me”.

Second, whence 25%? Why not 15%? Or 26%?
I’ll suggest a number: 50%+1 share.

Whatever the number, the extent to which I will vote for any action that provides him more shares is going to be a function of how well he demonstrates the extent to which he devotes his time and his energy to this company. How much of that he spends at SpaceX, at BoringCo, at Neuralink, at any other company in which he may have an interest; with his family, …..none of that matters with respect to this vote (what he does at SpaceX I need separate wrt my own interests there).

For Musk, I think he sees it as:

welfare of his company = his personal beliefs ≠ share price