Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

Thank you. I deleted my X account because the insanity of Elon was too stressful. I already dropped 2/3 of shares back when we were full bubble but will exit the rest.

Why oh why doesn't anyone else make a fantastic EV?

Because they don't have anyone like Musk.

CATL & BYD have elements - engineer founders/leaders. Most other CEOS are politicians, willows bending in the wind publicly, while privately trying to bribe/schmooze/lobby politicians/journalists for short term relief from competitors (economics, physics) - followed later by destruction from innovators (probably outside their home country).

GM & Toyota come to mind. Geely seems more brand-led. Not sure about SAIC/MG.

 

[thx1139]

Because they don't have anyone like Musk.

Does Tesla still have Musk? He seems so preoccupied with Twitter and revenge.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I find it hysterical that one of Musks many "the biggest threat to humanity" is population collapse and yet people coming into the country is also the biggest threat.

Becomes crystal clear if you place a couple of "those people" in his dumb sayings.

 

[Drax7]

Why are we breaking down again.
Elons drug issues?
Any new negative information?
Loss of confidence in Elon?

 

[phantasms]

You don't seem to be the type to HODL Tesla. Got it, this is not for everyone.
So then just sell it and buy some AMD, but why keep complaining here?

I complain because this is an amazing company with an amazing future and amazing people but dear leader spends more time diving head first into culture wars. I've been HODL for many years and saw over 20x but let's be honest anyone who with pride says "I never sold a single share" after we just went through [and in think are still in to some degree] a huge bubble should be kicking themselves. Holding tulips the entire time wasn't the winning more. NFA lol. Does the stock eventually go much higher? Sure. When it gets to double digits I'll buy in again.

 

[growler23]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754393055279427732

That is a big deal. Australia per capita fossil fuel use is only exceeded by us gas-gluttons in the USA.
I hope the Australian government remains in the hands of folks who will pass rules like this, and continue to shout to the rooftops about the massive success of renewables in the Australian grid, showcased by Tesla at Hornsdale. From the outside view, AU's previous leadership had seemed ... to put it delicately ... rather taken by the FF lobby.
Well played, Australia. Well played.

(Edited to add screenshot)

Chart:
Fossil fuel consumption per capita

 

[DarkandStormy]

Sales declining in Germany. General BEV market in Germany was +24% YoY for January.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I just don't get this Cult of the Leader thinking. Elon is remarkable, he has done so much to make Tesla what it is. But the company is 130,000 (and counting) people on 4 continents. Why does it all boil down to one guy?
Weird.

According to Joe Justice and others Elon Musk jumps in on the hardest problems/roadblocks. He has the authority regarding engineering, finance, marketing. He knows a LOT but he also listens to others. Other Musk companies help out (particularly materials science team of SpaceX).

Hence speed of innovation is unparalleled, rapidly reducing costs, improving quality and speed of production.

I should probably put up a poll asking how many hours a month do people spend in meetings and how many decisions per hour of meetings (correct decisions, as perceived by poll answerer). My meetings are fewer now, but used to be back to back. Often nothing actionable decided on and decisions put off until next meeting.

To get the Elon effect on innovation, you get Elon in whole. I like history, I really judge that Elon is unique. I wrack my brains for equivalents and I can't find them. Nearest seem to be military. Elon is much more even-handed - he's looking at the mission, welcoming success of others and not looking to dominate.

 

[UkNorthampton]

View attachment 1015525

Sales Deliveries declining in Germany. General BEV market in Germany was +24% YoY for January.

Deliveries to other market is an important context. There's only so much supply.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Does Tesla still have Musk? He seems so preoccupied with Twitter and revenge.

10% of Musk is 1000% of most GREAT CEOs and many CEOS are net negative. If he unglues 5 major roadblocks each week, that is well worth it.

In Japan, culture is largely collegiate presenteeism. Many low performance organisations everywhere in the world are plagued by empire-building, friction between or little communication between silos. Pace of innovation glacial.

Not much of that in a Musk company. Elon should be judged by the astounding speed of innovation of all of his companies. This leads to success for Tesla, TSLA and its shareholders LONG TERM. Prefer Mary Barra?

Elon is upsetting people, in various ways:- politically charged subjects, taken out of context quotes or implied beliefs. However, most importantly, he's really annoyed Fossil Fuel industries. They have so much media, political and economic power until they are disarmed and made uneconomic by renewables.

 

[cliff harris]

I complain because this is an amazing company with an amazing future and amazing people but dear leader spends more time diving head first into culture wars.

How much time does 10 tweets a day take? 10 minutes?
I spend more time than this making coffee each day for crying out loud.
If you had a camera watching elon 24/7 you would be shocked how much of his waking hours are spent working. Maybe thats why he has been the most successful CEO in the world.
Feel free to judge a CEO by his tweets. I'll judge him by the results, in terms of cars sold, batteries sold, supercharger & FSD revenue, and profit earned.

 

[Singuy]

And this is why my wife and I on Saturday decided to sell all of our TSLA, which is about $3M worth. His spewing factually incorrect conspiracy theories about great replacement theory and election fraud was the last straw. TSLA isnt going anywhere the next couple years with slowed ramps and new products being at least a year off. Luckily all of our holdings in IRA accounts so no capital gains from the decade of holding TSLA stock. Even if I thought Elon would change I dont see TSLA outperforming our other key holdings.

Most of those millions were made off the back of Elon sleeping on the factory floor which now he is not even getting paid for it due to the new ruling. Don't forget that no matter how much you don't agree with him politically. Sometimes people forget how to be a good person due to virtual signaling.

 

[cliff harris]

At some point, the joy and pain just become numbness.
If they're long term holders, they've already left 3 million on the table from ATH.
We need 50% gains just to get back to the end of last year. @thx1139 is down over a million from that point.
If someone offered you a million dollars, but you had to sell all your TSLA would you do it? What about the 3 million that are left?

I'm down about $2.5m from ATH. I am fine with that. TSLA moves in unpredictable ways. I do not want to risk missing the next run up.
Optimus, FSD and things that could change the stock in a heartbeat. A reveal of model 2 could do the same. Elon has zero interest in forewarning people who are not investors.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Deliveries to other market is an important context. There's only so much supply.

Tesla is demand-limited, per @Troy. Supply is not an issue.

 

[EVMeister]

"This thread has been infected by the woke mind virus" - Elon Musk, probably.

 

[aubreymcfato]

How much time does 10 tweets a day take? 10 minutes?
I spend more time than this making coffee each day for crying out loud.
If you had a camera watching elon 24/7 you would be shocked how much of his waking hours are spent working. Maybe thats why he has been the most successful CEO in the world.
Feel free to judge a CEO by his tweets. I'll judge him by the results, in terms of cars sold, batteries sold, supercharger & FSD revenue, and profit earned.

If this indeed how he uses X, this must be the best/worst rate of shenaningans per man/hour the world has ever seen.

 

[DarkandStormy]

How much time does 10 tweets a day take? 10 minutes?
I spend more time than this making coffee each day for crying out loud.
If you had a camera watching elon 24/7 you would be shocked how much of his waking hours are spent working. Maybe thats why he has been the most successful CEO in the world.
Feel free to judge a CEO by his tweets. I'll judge him by the results, in terms of cars sold, batteries sold, supercharger & FSD revenue, and profit earned.

He tweeted over 100 times in a 24 hour period this past week.

Not very focused for a guy allegedly running five companies.

 

[jamaatta]

Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden and Norway, cumulative sales of day 35 of Q1/2024 5884 Teslas vs. day 35 of Q1/23 sales 2481. Not bad.

 

[Drax7]

The stock trades like crap, total loss of confidence

 

[SOULPEDL]

I complain because this is an amazing company with an amazing future and amazing people but dear leader spends more time diving head first into culture wars. I've been HODL for many years and saw over 20x but let's be honest anyone who with pride says "I never sold a single share" after we just went through [and in think are still in to some degree] a huge bubble should be kicking themselves. Holding tulips the entire time wasn't the winning more. NFA lol. Does the stock eventually go much higher? Sure. When it gets to double digits I'll buy in again.

ANY leader of a successful EV company in this decade (or the last 10) would have been in the headlines for simply blowing their nose. It's not Elon, it's the microscope that everyone holds on this ICE buster. Elon does give some ammo for the media, but this is not the reason for the stock manipulation and FUD, which you seem to be participating in now.

I haven't a clue what Jeff Bezos did this week. Who knows what the banking CEOs are doing. Is this one gay, or that one have a criminal record... no idea, don't care. I only look at performance, which hooked me hard when I first drove a 2018 Model 3 off the lot. (Not stock performance, Technology breakthrough performance).

Fortunately I sold some in the high 300's out of pure greed (home improvements, paid off the M3, added solar etc...). It was a good move at the time, and has helped carry me to the present without the need to get a job. Had I not sold some, I would be feeling the pain much worse, likely diversified some TSLA long ago TBH.

I feel people's pain and distrust for TSLA stock, but it's the other companies who you should not trust. Literally the CEO in TSLA's case is a winner against all odds. But I tend to like the underdog, especially when he can fly and is a tech-nerd.

Have no fear...

Ya I know this is gonna make some people sick, but I have a hero today. Batman, Superman, Underdog, they were not real.