Krugerrand
Meow
What is Lucid doing to get a 26% SP bump today? All I see is a shrouded outline of a new vehicle Lucid won’t make for ‘a few years’. (If they’re still around)
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
CT in China labeled as Urban Traveling Wagon rather than “truck”. Interesting.
Silly cat....money to be made..... with a little pump and dump action.
Probably another Saudi buy out rumor for the pump and dump.
10K comments on warranty reserves.
"Automotive Warranty Reserve
As described in Note 2 to the consolidated financial statements, total accrued warranty, which primarily relates to the automotive segment, was $5,152 million as of December 31, 2023. The Company provides a manufacturer’s warranty on all new and used Tesla vehicles. A warranty reserve is accrued for these products sold, which includes management’s best estimate of the projected costs to repair or replace items under warranty and recalls if identified. These estimates are based on actual claims incurred to date and an estimate of the nature, frequency and costs of future claims.
The principal considerations for our determination that performing procedures relating to the automotive warranty reserve is a critical audit matter are the significant judgment by management in determining the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models; this in turn led to significant auditor judgment, subjectivity, and effort in performing procedures to evaluate management’s significant assumptions related to the nature, frequency and costs of future claims for certain Tesla vehicle models, and the audit effort involved the use of professionals with specialized skill and knowledge.
Addressing the matter involved performing procedures and evaluating audit evidence in connection with forming our overall opinion on the consolidated financial statements. These procedures included testing the effectiveness of controls relating to management’s estimate of the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models, including controls over management’s significant assumptions related to the nature, frequency and costs of future claims as well as the completeness and accuracy of actual claims incurred to date. These procedures also included, among others, performing one of the following: (i) testing management’s process for determining the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models or (ii) developing an independent estimate of the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models and comparing the independent estimate to management’s estimate to evaluate the reasonableness of the estimate. Testing management’s process involved evaluating the reasonableness of significant assumptions related to the nature and frequency of future claims and the related costs to repair or replace items under warranty. Evaluating the assumptions related to the nature and frequency of future claims and the related costs to repair or replace items under warranty involved evaluating whether the assumptions used were reasonable by performing a lookback analysis comparing prior period forecasted claims to actual claims incurred. Developing the independent estimate involved testing the completeness and accuracy of historical vehicle claims processed and testing that such claims were appropriately used by management in the estimation of future claims. Professionals with specialized skill and knowledge were used to assist in developing an independent estimate of the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models and in evaluating the appropriateness of certain aspects of management’s significant assumptions related to the nature and frequency of future claims."
/s/ PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
That is the only specially noted item, which immediately generates curiosity.
Skipping much more detail, which will happen soon, the actual incurred warranty cost per vehicle delivered in the current period was $613 in 2022 and rose to $700 in 2023. That is a very crude calculation since it does not include total fleet under warranty nor does it include and model breakdown at all.
As a guess, only a guess, The Hertz fleet of 100,000 has had a colorful history, including also the roughly half of them that have been delayed with Uber. The infamous issues certainly included maintenance, accidents and service problems driven by the innumerable effects of lack of user familiarity with the technologies and lack of training. That alone could quite easily have driven usually expensive warranty costs on models that heretofore have been stellar in freedom from issues.
Given the PWC auto industry focus:
www.pwc.com
and their strong actuarial practice:
www.pwc.com
It becomes quite logical that they would jump on that sudden jump in claim problems from that first big fleet sale. Without a doubt part of that is also revealing some of the formerly nascent risks in accelerating mass market adoption while simultaneously accelerating non-industry-standard controls.
These issues have been discussed here and elsewhere, sometimes with vitriol. This is the first time AFAIK, that these factors ahem been clearly evident in the P&L. I admit, 'clearly evident' only for nerdish preoccupation with fien print and auditors statements.
Warranty Week is interesting, but also does not include the 2023 data:
"Tesla's increase in claims payments was even more dramatic. Tesla's total claims paid rose 53% in just a year, from $525 million to $803 million. However, it looks like the rise in the warranty metrics has been stable relative to its rise in sales, as visualized in Figure 2. For instance, Tesla's product sales revenue increased by 52% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the same quarter in 2022."
Finally, this is based on only the first look. @The Accountant and others, including me, will delve more deeply into this/these issue(s).
Note 1: For decades the highest technology content of vehicles also generated highest warranty costs. Those included even aircraft. For the most part there have been few public analyses of that. Tesla has defied that logic since the beginning, perhaps because the PWC inclination was to not trust any short term assumptions of nontraditional products. PWC, like any other responsible accounting group with actuarial skills, would never accept a purely statistical approach as definitive. Based on other transportation industries from aviation to shipping new technologies have required learning curves in manufacturing, use and maintenance. BEV are not different. Almost always it is Tesla that is an outlier and actuaries are not fond of outliers. This note is to point out that such firms as these are meant to report within norms,not outside them.
Note 2: Disclosure: I sold a company to PWC, as a condition of which my firm and I consulted with some of their units primarily on auto and aviation industries for nearly a decade. Due to their many mergers etc the corporate names under which my firm and I provided services varied.
"Automotive Warranty Reserve
As described in Note 2 to the consolidated financial statements, total accrued warranty, which primarily relates to the automotive segment, was $5,152 million as of December 31, 2023. The Company provides a manufacturer’s warranty on all new and used Tesla vehicles. A warranty reserve is accrued for these products sold, which includes management’s best estimate of the projected costs to repair or replace items under warranty and recalls if identified. These estimates are based on actual claims incurred to date and an estimate of the nature, frequency and costs of future claims.
The principal considerations for our determination that performing procedures relating to the automotive warranty reserve is a critical audit matter are the significant judgment by management in determining the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models; this in turn led to significant auditor judgment, subjectivity, and effort in performing procedures to evaluate management’s significant assumptions related to the nature, frequency and costs of future claims for certain Tesla vehicle models, and the audit effort involved the use of professionals with specialized skill and knowledge.
Addressing the matter involved performing procedures and evaluating audit evidence in connection with forming our overall opinion on the consolidated financial statements. These procedures included testing the effectiveness of controls relating to management’s estimate of the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models, including controls over management’s significant assumptions related to the nature, frequency and costs of future claims as well as the completeness and accuracy of actual claims incurred to date. These procedures also included, among others, performing one of the following: (i) testing management’s process for determining the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models or (ii) developing an independent estimate of the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models and comparing the independent estimate to management’s estimate to evaluate the reasonableness of the estimate. Testing management’s process involved evaluating the reasonableness of significant assumptions related to the nature and frequency of future claims and the related costs to repair or replace items under warranty. Evaluating the assumptions related to the nature and frequency of future claims and the related costs to repair or replace items under warranty involved evaluating whether the assumptions used were reasonable by performing a lookback analysis comparing prior period forecasted claims to actual claims incurred. Developing the independent estimate involved testing the completeness and accuracy of historical vehicle claims processed and testing that such claims were appropriately used by management in the estimation of future claims. Professionals with specialized skill and knowledge were used to assist in developing an independent estimate of the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models and in evaluating the appropriateness of certain aspects of management’s significant assumptions related to the nature and frequency of future claims."
/s/ PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
That is the only specially noted item, which immediately generates curiosity.
Skipping much more detail, which will happen soon, the actual incurred warranty cost per vehicle delivered in the current period was $613 in 2022 and rose to $700 in 2023. That is a very crude calculation since it does not include total fleet under warranty nor does it include and model breakdown at all.
As a guess, only a guess, The Hertz fleet of 100,000 has had a colorful history, including also the roughly half of them that have been delayed with Uber. The infamous issues certainly included maintenance, accidents and service problems driven by the innumerable effects of lack of user familiarity with the technologies and lack of training. That alone could quite easily have driven usually expensive warranty costs on models that heretofore have been stellar in freedom from issues.
Given the PWC auto industry focus:
Automotive
Our Automotive industry experience, knowledge of local markets around the world, help you become future-ready in your business and market. Contact us today.
www.pwc.com
Actuarial services
Our actuarial services team applies risk and analytical skills to turn complex data into the predictive insights that inform practical business solutions.
www.pwc.com
It becomes quite logical that they would jump on that sudden jump in claim problems from that first big fleet sale. Without a doubt part of that is also revealing some of the formerly nascent risks in accelerating mass market adoption while simultaneously accelerating non-industry-standard controls.
These issues have been discussed here and elsewhere, sometimes with vitriol. This is the first time AFAIK, that these factors ahem been clearly evident in the P&L. I admit, 'clearly evident' only for nerdish preoccupation with fien print and auditors statements.
Warranty Week is interesting, but also does not include the 2023 data:
"Tesla's increase in claims payments was even more dramatic. Tesla's total claims paid rose 53% in just a year, from $525 million to $803 million. However, it looks like the rise in the warranty metrics has been stable relative to its rise in sales, as visualized in Figure 2. For instance, Tesla's product sales revenue increased by 52% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the same quarter in 2022."
Finally, this is based on only the first look. @The Accountant and others, including me, will delve more deeply into this/these issue(s).
Note 1: For decades the highest technology content of vehicles also generated highest warranty costs. Those included even aircraft. For the most part there have been few public analyses of that. Tesla has defied that logic since the beginning, perhaps because the PWC inclination was to not trust any short term assumptions of nontraditional products. PWC, like any other responsible accounting group with actuarial skills, would never accept a purely statistical approach as definitive. Based on other transportation industries from aviation to shipping new technologies have required learning curves in manufacturing, use and maintenance. BEV are not different. Almost always it is Tesla that is an outlier and actuaries are not fond of outliers. This note is to point out that such firms as these are meant to report within norms,not outside them.
Note 2: Disclosure: I sold a company to PWC, as a condition of which my firm and I consulted with some of their units primarily on auto and aviation industries for nearly a decade. Due to their many mergers etc the corporate names under which my firm and I provided services varied.
Last edited:
Last chance sale, Lucid is 95% cheap!
Solved by volume? Oh, IDK...
Could Investing $15,000 in Lucid Stock Make You a Millionaire? | The Motley Fool
Lucid is down roughly 95% from its best price but could have explosive potential. Is the EV maker a worthwhile investment?
www.fool.com
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I've taken one for the team on Friday by selling at the low. 
That is, selling a few shares from one account to fund the max annual buy-in on the ROTH once the trade clears with the broker. (2 trading days)
So, my buddy Murphy has jumped in to help make sure I won't be able to buy back as many shares as I sold.
Just thought this might avoid any speculation regarding a rise in TSLA today and a flurry of postulations upon that topic.
I hope you all appreciate what I've done to help out.
That is, selling a few shares from one account to fund the max annual buy-in on the ROTH once the trade clears with the broker. (2 trading days)
So, my buddy Murphy has jumped in to help make sure I won't be able to buy back as many shares as I sold.
Just thought this might avoid any speculation regarding a rise in TSLA today and a flurry of postulations upon that topic.
I hope you all appreciate what I've done to help out.
Ya know, if I were Lucid, I'd be already working on a lower-cost alternative commuter using newer castings etc. They will never get volume in anything so far in the current price range.
USA is wide open considering the Chinese tariffs, and Big 3 are on vacation. I do think Tesla is inherently introducing delays of the Gen 3 by combining it with a robotaxi. However, it appears Tesla has the time to get it right given everything we know on the competition and demand.
USA is wide open considering the Chinese tariffs, and Big 3 are on vacation. I do think Tesla is inherently introducing delays of the Gen 3 by combining it with a robotaxi. However, it appears Tesla has the time to get it right given everything we know on the competition and demand.
Interest income increased $769 million, or 259%, in the year ended December 31, 2023 as compared to the year ended December 31, 2022. This increase was primarily due to higher interest earned on our cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments in the year ended December 31, 2023 as compared to the prior year due to rising interest rates and our increasing portfolio balance.
... Until rates come down, or SP drops sharply .. I don't think we gonna see any buybacks(which now also have like some tax on it)
... Until rates come down, or SP drops sharply .. I don't think we gonna see any buybacks(which now also have like some tax on it)
Seems all normal though?10K comments on warranty reserves.
"Automotive Warranty Reserve
As described in Note 2 to the consolidated financial statements, total accrued warranty, which primarily relates to the automotive segment, was $5,152 million as of December 31, 2023. The Company provides a manufacturer’s warranty on all new and used Tesla vehicles. A warranty reserve is accrued for these products sold, which includes management’s best estimate of the projected costs to repair or replace items under warranty and recalls if identified. These estimates are based on actual claims incurred to date and an estimate of the nature, frequency and costs of future claims.
The principal considerations for our determination that performing procedures relating to the automotive warranty reserve is a critical audit matter are the significant judgment by management in determining the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models; this in turn led to significant auditor judgment, subjectivity, and effort in performing procedures to evaluate management’s significant assumptions related to the nature, frequency and costs of future claims for certain Tesla vehicle models, and the audit effort involved the use of professionals with specialized skill and knowledge.
Addressing the matter involved performing procedures and evaluating audit evidence in connection with forming our overall opinion on the consolidated financial statements. These procedures included testing the effectiveness of controls relating to management’s estimate of the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models, including controls over management’s significant assumptions related to the nature, frequency and costs of future claims as well as the completeness and accuracy of actual claims incurred to date. These procedures also included, among others, performing one of the following: (i) testing management’s process for determining the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models or (ii) developing an independent estimate of the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models and comparing the independent estimate to management’s estimate to evaluate the reasonableness of the estimate. Testing management’s process involved evaluating the reasonableness of significant assumptions related to the nature and frequency of future claims and the related costs to repair or replace items under warranty. Evaluating the assumptions related to the nature and frequency of future claims and the related costs to repair or replace items under warranty involved evaluating whether the assumptions used were reasonable by performing a lookback analysis comparing prior period forecasted claims to actual claims incurred. Developing the independent estimate involved testing the completeness and accuracy of historical vehicle claims processed and testing that such claims were appropriately used by management in the estimation of future claims. Professionals with specialized skill and knowledge were used to assist in developing an independent estimate of the automotive warranty reserve for certain Tesla vehicle models and in evaluating the appropriateness of certain aspects of management’s significant assumptions related to the nature and frequency of future claims."
/s/ PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
That is the only specially noted item, which immediately generates curiosity.
Skipping much more detail, which will happen soon, the actual incurred warranty cost per vehicle delivered in the current period was $613 in 2022 and rose to $700 in 2023. That is a very crude calculation since it does not include total fleet under warranty nor does it include and model breakdown at all.
As a guess, only a guess, The Hertz fleet of 100,000 has had a colorful history, including also the roughly half of them that have been delayed with Uber. The infamous issues certainly included maintenance, accidents and service problems driven by the innumerable effects of lack of user familiarity with the technologies and lack of training. That alone could quite easily have driven usually expensive warranty costs on models that heretofore have been stellar in freedom from issues.
Given the PWC auto industry focus:
and their strong actuarial practice:Automotive
Our Automotive industry experience, knowledge of local markets around the world, help you become future-ready in your business and market. Contact us today.
Actuarial services
Our actuarial services team applies risk and analytical skills to turn complex data into the predictive insights that inform practical business solutions.
It becomes quite logical that they would jump on that sudden jump in claim problems from that first big fleet sale. Without a doubt part of that is also revealing some of the formerly nascent risks in accelerating mass market adoption while simultaneously accelerating non-industry-standard controls.
These issues have been discussed here and elsewhere, sometimes with vitriol. This is the first time AFAIK, that these factors ahem been clearly evident in the P&L. I admit, 'clearly evident' only for nerdish preoccupation with fien print and auditors statements.
Warranty Week is interesting, but also does not include the 2023 data:
View attachment 1013234
"Tesla's increase in claims payments was even more dramatic. Tesla's total claims paid rose 53% in just a year, from $525 million to $803 million. However, it looks like the rise in the warranty metrics has been stable relative to its rise in sales, as visualized in Figure 2. For instance, Tesla's product sales revenue increased by 52% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the same quarter in 2022."
Finally, this is based on only the first look. @The Accountant and others, including me, will delve more deeply into this/these issue(s).
Warranty reserve increase should scale with sales.
Warranty payments should scale with fleet size and age.
Hertz hasn't purchased 100k Teslas yet, and the repair issues they had were likely non-warranty things like bodywork or other user induced damage. The data from that accelerated mileage rental fleet should provide Tesla guidance on the accuracy of their per-unit warranty reserve number.
Thought I'd add how my Fla Tesla Hertz rental last summer was full of little scratches and dings. Nothing was reviewed before or after. This felt like another oversight by Hertz who may have viewed this wear as normal.
- Users, yes, normal people.
- Cost to repair a Tesla, unexpected.
Not all heroes wear capes.I've taken one for the team on Friday by selling at the low.
That is, selling a few shares from one account to fund the max annual buy-in on the ROTH once the trade clears with the broker. (2 trading days)
So, my buddy Murphy has jumped in to help make sure I won't be able to buy back as many shares as I sold.
Just thought this might avoid any speculation regarding a rise in TSLA today and a flurry of postulations upon that topic.
I hope you all appreciate what I've done to help out.
Cult Member
Born on the 4th of July
While others are proud of their union...
Call Options at 190 just showed up, and no response? Someone know something???
When is Elon presenting, Jan 30th? That's the first date that I heard like a week ago, but some mentioned "sometime after the 10K" which is out.
Anything scheduled, or rumored?
When is Elon presenting, Jan 30th? That's the first date that I heard like a week ago, but some mentioned "sometime after the 10K" which is out.
Anything scheduled, or rumored?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Bottomline - anything that can be imported is cheaper, all others more expensive.Not sure where the reply to this went, but in that story I found this inflation chart since 2000.
Assuming this is accurate, any young couple (with a new home and kids) is in economic shock. This is where the hospital trip can knock them out of house and home. OTOH, if you're house is paid off, kids are on their way, and you're healthy... no change really. So it's quite different depending on each situation.
SeniorsAdults hooked on meds are gonna (try to) vote accordingly - not that medical expenses will ever change. 63% of all adults in the USA use prescription drugs. (I prefer non-prescription personally, at least I know what I'm getting!)
View attachment 1013202
As we say, China has been exporting deflation for decades ...
EVNow
Well-Known Member
To follow up on this ... there is a website now tracking VIN registrations.
Tesla only activates VINs on weekdays. They activated about 150 a week until last week, when it was 250. Total till now is about 1k.
As they say - reports of 100 per day are highly exaggerated
i keep seeing that CT cannot be sold in China ??? forgive my ignorance ...why not ?
This was announced some weeks ago (and discussed here), see reply by Alex further down the thread
Captkerosene
Member
Don't want to and can't are very different.GM Management; "Yeah, us too (can't we just keep making ICE vehicles, PLEASE?)
I has become abundantly clear that legacy auto really, really, REALLY doesn't want to transition to EVs.
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