Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

Country cherry-picking in Europe (Anti-FUD)

Germany & UK down 9% from peaks (noise). Additional reasons affecting German & UK Tesla sales.

1) Dodgy 6 month sale/hold/export incentive gone (VW/dealers did this massively - huge German sales followed by exports to Norway & Denmark as I recall. Really skewed ID3 sales numbers a long time ago)

2) No Highlands in UK in 2023 (I forgot). People/leasing companies waiting. Check numbers delivered in March 2024 as this is usually one of the best months (twice yearly number plate age indicator changes, even more effect in September).


Norbert Schertler @SchertlerN
Germans used to buy Teslas, harvest the government bonus and resell to Denmark after 6 months holding

holding time was extended to 12 months and now the bonus is completely gone

result:

less sales in
more direct purchase in

Andreas @sometimesfrunny
German and UK numbers are down because they are waiting for Highland? Could this be the reason for lower numbers?

Roland Pircher @piloly
This is the reason only for UK. First deliveries of new Model 3 Highland are starting now in January.

 

[Krugerrand]

My philosophy has always been to listen to everyone so I can invest better.
I play chaotic neutral in any rpg setting.

You get bonus points for that attitude. It’s a wonderful way to be. I just happen to think most people don’t warrant or deserve to be listened to. I give them 30s to say something profound, intelligent, logical, reasonable, interesting, fascinating or not. Most land in the not category and then I pull the Tesla over and tell them to get out. ‍ You drove the guy to his destination, didn’t you? You’re a better human being than I.

 

[Artful Dodger]

BTW is it me or are we in a TSLA winter? This forum is quieter than I remembered which usually coincide with bad tsla periods.

Haha, this is the "El nino" phase of Winter. You should have been here for "Nomember" after the Q3 Conf. Call...

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[navguy12]

If you watch his very next video (Episode #3) after the one in 2016 in his mom's basement (Episode #2), he quickly reevaluated his initial reasons for selling and bought back in. Link...

Gali was famously the first YouTuber allowed to ask a question on a Tesla earnings call (EDIT: thanks @Max Plaid for pointing out 18Q1). Elon took notice of him early on and has respect for him. Gali is also privately invested in SpaceX.

If you haven't seen this classic debate in 2019 between a young Gali in his early 20s vs Mark Spiegel, do yourself a favor and watch Gali school one of the most infamous Tesla short sellers. # instaclassic

If you haven't seen this classic debate in 2019 between a young Gali in his early 20s vs Mark Spiegel, do yourself a favor and watch Gali school one of the most infamous Tesla short sellers. # instaclassic

Thanks for posting this; I never saw this back in 2019.

Is there some video where Mr Spiegel publicly eats crow?

He was wrong on literally every talking point he was making.

 

[adiggs]

Wonder if we’ll get better journalism when AI takes over.

When did we first see this article written, here in these parts? Seems like I've been reading this article off and on, with varying levels of critique(?) for 8-10 years now. Back when Norway was taking off and had the huge EV incentives, we'd get articles about disastrous months, and occasionally disastrous quarters.
Articles like this get written for the month and quarter after a significant EV incentive expires. They get written about any of the markets that get de-prioritized in order to better supply other markets that get prioritized.

"largest market in the region" - that is my first giveaway. Not "largest market". Not even "largest region".

Numbers, lacking informative context, and decorated with hyperbole - that'd be my best indicator.

These journalists could improve the quality of the information they are passing along, as well as the quality of their work as professional journalists, by aspiring to match an amateur; something like this bit just provided earlier in the thread:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Country cherry-picking in Europe (Anti-FUD) Germany & UK down 9% from peaks (noise). Additional reasons affecting German & UK Tesla sales. 1) Dodgy 6 month sale/hold/export incentive gone (VW/dealers did this massively - huge German sales followed by exports to Norway & Denmark as I recall...

teslamotorsclub.com

And only as long as the AI journalists aren't trained on the hit pieces

 

[UkNorthampton]

When did we first see this article written, here in these parts? Seems like I've been reading this article off and on, with varying levels of critique(?) for 8-10 years now. Back when Norway was taking off and had the huge EV incentives, we'd get articles about disastrous months, and occasionally disastrous quarters.
Articles like this get written for the month and quarter after a significant EV incentive expires. They get written about any of the markets that get de-prioritized in order to better supply other markets that get prioritized.

"largest market in the region" - that is my first giveaway. Not "largest market". Not even "largest region".

Numbers, lacking informative context, and decorated with hyperbole - that'd be my best indicator.


As long as the AI journalists aren't trained on the hit pieces

Fear/hate-based titles get more clicks. People often say they want to see more good news articles/channels, but we're wired to care more about danger. Survival instinct.

 

[The Accountant]

Apologies if this has been posted already.
Alex mentions products delivered and to be delivered by Elon (Tesla) including Compact Car, FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus and Elon replies that there are additional products coming.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1743416112149037209

 

[Artful Dodger]

... and some days you get the bear.

Picking up UBER Rider in CYBERTRUCK, reaction and her review | MyGadgetsWorld (2024-01-05)

Cheers to the Riders!

 

[ChiefRollo]

These people are annoyed because Elon is not afraid to be who he is. These people are scared of what their parents think, what their friends think etc. and whenever they people see a person who is comfortable in their own skin it triggers them like nothing else. Not everyone will love Tesla and who cares really

I think it’s refreshing and perhaps foreign for some of us to see folks of certain stature acting with principles. I don’t have to agree with someone to respect them. If anything I expect consistency.

 

[ChiefRollo]

This won't translate well into your intended point I think, but as someone who grew up on a sheep farm with c.10k head there is no question. Sheep have an innate desire to flock together. If one gets out on its own it has no idea what to do - it could run towards you or away from you or around in circles. If a dog is around it will likely panic and run into the nearest tree or fence, look confused about how it came into this predicament, then run into the next tree or fence.

The caveat is that you can entice them to not be quite so stupid. During drought periods we used to feed them grain, and to call them we would honk the horn while pouring out the grain. Eventually they would get the pavlovian response to run towards the truck when they hear the horn. If you wanted to move them from one paddock to the next you could open the gate and honk the horn and they would all come running to the next paddock - however that is still flocking.

Even when sheep flock together there is always one or two that get spooked by a shadow and run off and do their own thing (i.e. running into trees and fences) causing you to waste immense amounts of time dealing with these idiots.

It is immensely easier to herd them together.

I think it translates well. Narrative makers know it takes less effort to get the readers to flock together and agree with group think tendency than for the individuals to form their own perspective. It’s those idiotic sheep that the establishment can’t stand.

 

[Musskiah]

Thanks for posting this; I never saw this back in 2019.

Is there some video where Mr Spiegel publicly eats crow?

He was wrong on literally every talking point he was making.

My observation is thay Spiegel rarely eats crow. He lacks humility.

 

[Musskiah]

I didn't see this before. Gotta thank him for verbally smacking spiegel for me.

The first thing I say if I ever run into Gali in person: "Thank you Mr. Russel for being the catalyst that lit the fuse that pubically sank the egos before the endeavors of Speigel (and Chanos)."

 

[heltok]

My observation is thay Spiegel rarely eats crow. He lacks humility.

Some people try to win the debate, they will never admit to being wrong. Some other people try to win, they know they will always be wrong but try to be less wrong over time. Elon/Tesla are examples of the latter.

 

[Knightshade]

My observation is thay Spiegel rarely eats crow.

Given how much $ he's lost I expect he's mostly eating ramen.

 

[Bet TSLA]

These people are annoyed because Elon is not afraid to be who he is.

Uh, no. They are annoyed because as Elon has revealed who he is, it turns out he's a great engineer but a despicable human being.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Uh, no. They are annoyed because as Elon has revealed who he is, it turns out he's a great engineer but a despicable human being.

 

[EQC_]

Given how much $ he's lost I expect he's mostly eating ramen.

I didn't go to his actual Twitter/X page, but did a quick Google for "twitter stanphyl capital".

Of the 5 recent posts that popped up, 2 were grievously misinterpreted statements about Tesla:

- One quoted Ed Niedermeyer of "Tesla Deathwatch" fame claiming "fraud" because Tesla had an autopilot recall and updated model Y range in accordance with new EPA guidelines.

- The other was about how dominant Toyota's battery work is compared to Tesla.

So...these guys just don't quit. They all apparently pat each other on the back, telling each other and anybody who will listen that their bad "analysis" is valid.

Side note: we're all still pretty sure that Spiegel's "StanPhyl Capital" is so-named because it's all his parents's money, right? Has anybody found a formerly wealthy couple named Stan and Phyllis Spiegel?

*Edited for formatting and to add the attached image of Spiegel (aka "Logical Thought")'s article declaring in 2014 that Tesla would never sell 500,000 vehicles in 2020. The growth rate required would just be unheard of! Technically correct since they only sold 499,500...but if you thought such an achievement directly against his certain prediction would make the guy pause and think, you'd be wrong about Mark B. Spiegel!

 

[dhanson865]

 

[unk45]

As it is the weekend, I'll post a highly speculative hypothetical point of view.

Specifically What, When, Why and How.

Before detailing What I'll indicate that the time frame is mostly 2030-2050 with perhaps some Gen4 production 2028/2029.

This a hypothetical comprehensive list products that Tesla may or may not choose to build, and I will definitely be wrong about some aspects.

My primary assumption is the "unboxed" production method allows more models to be built on a platform by sharing, batteries, castings, stampings, wiring-harnesses, motors, components and boxes.

Also that Tesla in 2028 has a lot more resources than they do today and may want to (eventually) produce good products in all EV market segments.

What:-
Semi- Semi, other trucks, including dump trucks, possibly Buses and RVs.
Cybertruck - Cybertruck, Rugged SUV, Smaller Cybertruck
Unboxed Gen4, Roadster, Model S/X, Soft-Road SUV, Vans and Wagons.
Unboxed Gen5 - Model 3/Y, Coupe, Medium size van

The idea behind so many Gen4 models is by sharing resources across a platform Model S/X can be migrated to unboxed. The other models on that platform would be higher volume hence justify the investment in a new factory Gen5 factory, After Model S/X are moved out of Fremont it can be converted to a Gen5 factory.

This isn't the only way to do things, just my current thoughts.

Rugged SUV has Cybertruck wheels and suspension plus an stainless steel exterior. Soft-Road SUV has an improved version of Model X suspension which is common to all Gen4 Models,. All can drive on tracks, mud, sand and other light off-road situations Wagons includes a station wagon. Vans includes Cargo Van, Mini Van Camper Van. Having Vans with a modest off-road capability is very handy.

When:-
As indicated above this isn't the 20 Million vehicles by 2030 plan, it is the next plan. Doing major revisions on Model S/X before 2030 doesn't help the 20 Million by 2030 target. IMO 48V and drive-by-wire are required ASAP, but I don't consider them to ne a major revision, at least not this kind of major revision.

Why:-
Moving as many models as possible to the "unboxed" method of production will lower production costs and help expand market share by allowing lower prices with acceptable margins.
Expanding to all EV market segments helps the mission by ensuring there are good products in all segments.

How:-
As indicated above, I think the Gen4 factory needs to be a new factory with Model S/X and Roadster eventually moved out of Fremont, That means the existing lines at Fremont keep going until the new lines at the new factory are ramped.

At the new Gen5 factory production would probably start with a Van or Soft-Road SUV.

My rationale here is that it would be good to have all Gen4 lines at the same factory, and high volume production of Vans can't easily be added to Fremont.

Aspects of this exist today with a handful of manufacturers. Geely, SAIC, Toyota, VAG have all done well with variants on this theme. None have even scratched the surface of Tesla manufacturing prowess. Frankly, I doubt that we can even speculate in any serious way about HOW Tesla will do this. That they will is probably not in doubt. HOW will be another group of surprises. I’d imagine it will be a trfle before your thoughts, perhaps happening first in, say, a Gujarati factory or maybe even Chile. The ultra modular approach (next gen unboxed) really needs just to expand the present parts commonality in ‘invisible’ places, such as drivetrain, suspension and Operating systems, to mention only three categories. How many variants could there be on a ‘skateboard’?

 

[2daMoon]

Aspects of this exist today with a handful of manufacturers. Geely, SAIC, Toyota, VAG have all done well with variants on this theme. None have even scratched the surface of Tesla manufacturing prowess. Frankly, I doubt that we can even speculate in any serious way about HOW Tesla will do this. That they will is probably not in doubt. HOW will be another group of surprises. I’d imagine it will be a trfle before your thoughts, perhaps happening first in, say, a Gujarati factory or maybe even Chile. The ultra modular approach (next gen unboxed) really needs just to expand the present parts commonality in ‘invisible’ places, such as drivetrain, suspension and Operating systems, to mention only three categories. How many variants could there be on a ‘skateboard’?

Following along on this it occurred to me how the unboxed system could be easily adapted to offer different wheelbase models while sharing the same front and rear castings with a longer center section between them.

The possibilities for quickly ramping these unboxed production lines, as well as being able to easily convert an unboxed line to produce different models, is mind boggling. Maybe they can produce multiple models simultaneously on the same unboxed line.

If Mattel can do it with Hot Wheels cars, why not do this with Tesla cars too?