Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Fed interest rate reduction is still speculation, at this point, as far as I know.

It does seem likely that Tesla will focus on selling model Y while retooling for a model 3 refresh in North America.

Reduction is speculation, however a flat 10y already crushed real rates by 2 percentage as real rates are based on future projections. Mortgage rate is already in the mid 6s from the mid 8s 2 months ago.

 

[AndrewZ]

Reduction is speculation, however a flat 10y already crushed real rates by 2 percentage as real rates are based on future projections. Mortgage rate is already in the mid 6s from the mid 8s 2 months ago.

This is more reason the Fed Funds rates can stay higher for longer, the long end of the curve only briefly came up and then November 2023 was the greatest monthly loosening of financial conditions in the history of US financial conditions

Powell can now say the yield curve has already done some of the Fed's easing

 

[Max Plaid]

It literally does.

"The software update apparently will limit where Autosteer can be used."

"“If the driver attempts to engage Autosteer when conditions are not met for engagement, the feature will alert the driver it is unavailable through visual and audible alerts, and Autosteer will not engage"


Currently AS will engage on roads it's not intended for. The story claims that now it won't. Otherwise they'd only be mentioning the added alerts not the fact it won't engage as a change.

The AP story could be wrong of course- I suppose we will have to wait on release notes for the actual SW update.

That has been the case in Europe for as long as I remember, some roads it just will not engage

I think it's a good thing if it doesn't try to function on roads where it technically can't - one would assume those cases where the driver tries to switch it on would then be flagged for further study to see if they could be incorporated in the future

 

[powertoold]

That has been the case in Europe for as long as I remember, some roads it just will not engage

Also true in the US, you can't engage AP on unmarked roads. You can engage it on roads with lane markings and let it drive onto a road without lane markings.

 

[GOVA]

The Optimus video is great to see. not aware of any other humanoid bot out there showing that level of refinement.

I think a lot of us can agree that Tesla's dominance as a car company, as amazing as that story is and will be, is already priced in. We need to see major progress in other business areas like the bot, FSD, and energy to justify HODLing. Little tantalizing nuggets of Optimus progress really help.

Speak for yourself only please. Don't include me in your assumptions.

 

[Usain]

A recall could impact a company's financials if:
1. the recall repairs are materially costly and or,
2. the recall news dissuades individuals from buying the product.

In this case, I believe this recall does neither and will not impact Tesla's income or cash flow. If share price reacts to this, it's temporary.

In other words, "buying opportunity".

 

[SOULPEDL]

Another embarassing moment I'm witness on the TMC investors' forum.

People have been ranting on how big a deal the $7500 tax credit moving to a point of sale rebate was a big deal for 2024.

But when the entire $7500 gets erased for the model 3 instead, nary a discussion.

Not only that, but people are asking why the stocking isn't going up on the Optimus news. LOLOL.

Hello? Model 3 demand is going to crater even more than this year (which 30% price cuts say it did).

Who in the world is going to buy a Model 3? Prices will have to be cut to where gross margins are in single digits.

Q1 is already a seasonally weak quarter, and now it will be even worse.

Outside of Tesla Energy growth, this all but ensures Q1 EPS around $0.5 at best. Annualized, you might be talking about a stock with shrinking earnings and a PE ratio over 100 at current share price.

No, that terrible news means the stock isn't going up much from here. Prepare for a big dip under $200 sometime at or before May 2024.

True, it's a fact that Auto is historically weak in Q1. This is why Tesla (and every auto company) prepares for this glut, rebates aside.

Further, there is not a moment that I didn't think Congress would change the rules... again. They are simply trying to motivate legacy ICE into EV but Tesla keeps moving the goal posts. This is chess, Tesla is winning.

Also true, a drop in sticker price could occur short-term, so that refresh can't come soon enough. We won't know it's coming until it's here, and it would ramp quickly since it's not new to the Volume Factory with China taking the lead here.

(I don't keep close track on the refresh, does Q1 in the USA seem possible? It sure would be the ultimate chess move... already mentioned by @Singuy).

 

[SOULPEDL]

Also true in the US, you can't engage AP on unmarked roads. You can engage it on roads with lane markings and let it drive onto a road without lane markings.

Interesting... and it follows a pattern. In the past, we could engage streets with center lines, and it would continue even if the lines went away. But we could not engage when the lines were not present.

I bet this is it exactly (Edit: regarding unmarked roads)!

 

[Usain]

Further, there is not a moment that I didn't think Congress would change the rules... again.

I wouldn't count on that. This congress has given us the lowest number of passed bills into law since the Hoover administration. And that was a year when congress only met for 3 months.

I expect that any changes to the IRA will come at the regulatory level until at least 2025.

 

[AndrewZ]

Interesting... and it follows a pattern. In the past, we could engage streets with center lines, and it would continue even if the lines went away. But we could not engage when the lines were not present.

I bet this is it exactly (Edit: regarding unmarked roads)!

There are many conditions under which Autopilot is not supposed to be used per the owner's manual, conditions that are fully blocked out in competitor systems

Like how Ford's BlueCruise system won't steer for you through sharp curves but Autopilot will even though Autopilot is also not supposed to be used in sharp curves per the manual.

You get people complaining about phantom braking and other issues in single-lane divided highways, because Autopilot is only supposed to be used on controlled-access highways -- but it hasn't been blocked out

 

[thx1139]

You really have to wonder what cars will be eligible for the $7500 tax credit in 2024. No Congress wont change a GOP controlled house is more likely to outlaw electric vehicles than do anything to push more EV sales.

 

[insaneoctane]

Are folks ignoring the immediate "gift" of demand the news of loss of the $7500 next year creates? Sure, If Tesla doesn't adapt quickly, US TM3 margins and demand will be seriously impacted. Tesla has the best chance of anyone to adapt their strategy to the moving target of subsidies. I'd certainly rather have my money on TSLA vs GM or F to adjust to the news....

 

[winfield100]

I just need to whine a little and you guys seem more likely to understand…

HODL has been harder to justify over the last few years for me. Who would have thought that the SPY would outperform TSLA for the last 3 years? Isn’t Tesla an awesome high growth stock that’s really going places (I know it is)? This graph is disappointing.

SPY=Blue. TSLA=Black. Pop=3 years.

View attachment 998830

Ignore last 3 years, look at last 12 months TSLA.
more people are buying
Accum/distrib line says around 3.5 Billion shares were bought at fractionally HIGHER prices than sold
Linear regression lines point upwards
yes HODL has been something, I suggest eating chocolate, whatever your favorite foods are, garden, (which helps develop _patience_)

 

[Artful Dodger]

There is also the Canadian market that has been being supported by Shanghai imports...

Yup, and the leasing market, if I understand the IRA rules correctly? Or is that just for income limits, not bty/materials sourcing?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Picked up some loto tickets for later in the month and in Q1
It's time for some serious Holiday gifts IMO.
Not advice, as I'm somewhat fearless and I'm talking small potatoes here.
But fun stuff none the less!

 

[SOULPEDL]

HODL has been something, I suggest eating chocolate, whatever your favorite foods are, garden, (which helps develop _patience_)

Also, eat more lettuce. Vitamin A calms the nerves.

Lettuce pray

 

[SOULPEDL]

25 more shairs too... What a Sale!

 

[scaesare]

It is OT, but this crowd will enjoy. The man who out Elon'd Elon (or whatever the hell it is )

View attachment 998857

In Trevor's case, I kind of DID expect it...

 

[scaesare]

I (mis)read that as "Model 2 is Optimus." Anybody else thinking what I'm thinking? I'm picturing Optimus wearing a giant Baby Bjorn (or whatever your favorite baby carrier is). You climb into the carrier, Optimus buckles the straps. Then Optimus jogs to your destination.... For that premium experience, your choice of milk or juice in a special, spill-proof bottle during the trip.

Ladies and Gentlemen: the future of transport!

/Joke. Maybe.

 

[Electroman]

The Optimus video is great to see. not aware of any other humanoid bot out there showing that level of refinement.

Please help me understand. The Boston Dynamics robots that did that amazing coordinated dance and the one that does backflip seems more capable - for the untrained eyes - than Tesla's Optimus. What am I missing?