Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Maarten]

A nice new feature that may help boost Tesla sales.
As of yesterday the new version 4.24.0 of the Tesla app supports Apple shortcuts.
With an iPhone or iWatch you can easily address a lot of functions of your Tesla through Siri.

Tesla’s iOS App Now Supports Apple’s Siri Shortcuts • iPhone in Canada Blog

In a move to further streamline the user experience, Tesla has unveiled its latest iOS app update, version 4.24.0, which now integrates seamlessly with Apple's Shortcuts app. This integration means that Tesla owners can now control various vehicle functions simply by giving voice commands to...

www.iphoneincanada.ca

 

[scaesare]

These systems never get bored, never look away, never check their phones. They will eventually drive better than we do.

Your car is a better driver than you are.

 

[Max Plaid]

A nice new feature that may help boost Tesla sales.
As of yesterday the new version 4.24.0 of the Tesla app supports Apple shortcuts.
With an iPhone or iWatch you can easily address a lot of functions of your Tesla through Siri.

Tesla’s iOS App Now Supports Apple’s Siri Shortcuts • iPhone in Canada Blog

In a move to further streamline the user experience, Tesla has unveiled its latest iOS app update, version 4.24.0, which now integrates seamlessly with Apple's Shortcuts app. This integration means that Tesla owners can now control various vehicle functions simply by giving voice commands to...

www.iphoneincanada.ca

View attachment 966754

Seems a bit patchy, it works sometimes... also not sure how I differentiate between our two Teslas... I guess will improve over time, but the ability to open the trunk verbally is fantastic

Curiously, on my app it has "Open Tesla Bonnet", WTF??

 

[RubberToe]

Interesting L.A. Times article titled "Guide to buying an electric car now". Always like to see how Tesla is portrayed in the old media landscape. The interesting part is that there is no mention of either Tesla or the Supercharger network . Tesla Model Y gets a mention in the Midrange pick category, and the authors bio at the bottom says he: "covers the rapidly changing global auto industry, with special emphasis on California, including Tesla, electric vehicles, driverless cars and vehicle safety". I'd say that covering the auto industry with a special emphasis on California, and writing a buying guide without mentioning Tesla or especially the Supercharger network, his journalism skills need some serious honing...

A little web searching goes a long way, even for a journalist...

Budget pick is the Nissan Leaf. Midrange pick is the Hyundia Ioniq 5. Ultra-luxury pick is the Porsche Taycan Turbo S.

Article says: "As for public charging - it remains a mess".

Reminds me of the "old days" when journalists ignored Tesla because, well, every other car maker was developing all the Tesla Killers. We all know how that worked out. Maybe his next big piece will be "Guide to buying a smart phone now", with no mention of the Apple ecosystem.

The L.A. Times guide to buying an electric car now

As autos writer for the L.A. Times, Russ Mitchell gets a lot of questions about electric car buying. Here's his guide to choosing the right EV for you.

www.latimes.com

 

[Mengy]

Is it mad to consider that Monday may bring final Cybertruck specs announcement and a day for the delivery event?
I certainly wouldn't rule it out. There are normally a few weeks between event date announcement and event, and even if the CT deliveries are end September, its getting close to when we should expect a date.
Latest guesses:
$300 by October 1st
$350 by December 31st
$400 by March 1st.

Is it mad? I've no idea about the CT delivery event, but we are certainly seeing CT production taking place and new CT's being shipped all over, so I do think the event is imminent. Could be tomorrow, could be next month, anything is possible but it is certainly nigh.

Now, I do feel your SP predictions are mad!

$300 by October 1st
$350 by December 31st
$400 by March 1st.

Unlike many people, I don't feel CT's nor Highland M3's beginning delivery will move the stock very much, not in this market environment. I think it will take actual revenues and margins increasing before we start seeing meaningful increases in TSLA, and that requires volume production, which is still probably many months off. Unfortunately that will need to play out over several quarters after deliveries begin, so likely later next year.

Of course if the market improves then TSLA will ride up along with macros, but I also feel Tesla is going to keep driving prices down to pressure the auto industry into submission and counter high loan rates, and that will keep downward pressure on our margins, thus keeping TSLA subdued as well for quite a while. IMHO.

I'd be extremely happy if you are correct and my conservative outlook is incorrect, of course.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The IRA $80K price cap for pickups is what happened.


Bill Wright is often cyptic, yet accurate-in-hindsight. However with this msg, there's not much left to decypher...

I think Tesla wants to do a Model 3 style delivery event before the end of Q3. That would imply ~30 Cybertrucks (easy to see given the present 1-2/day rate-of-production), plus having completed all the EPA range tests and NHTSA certs.

Back in July of 2017, all the OG Model 3 owners were either Tesla employees, Officers/Directors, or immediate family members (ie: I recall the girlfriend of former Telsa Director Steve Westly got one of the 1st batch of 30 Models 3 at the delivery event). Easy to do now in Austin, the new official home of the badass-est American pickup truck!

Cheers to the OG!

Just a fyi. One of those that tracks GigaAustin said they estimate they’re making 10 Cybertruck per day and increasing that rate. Even if you just go by anecdotal video evidence, they’re clearly making at 3-4 per day.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Elon mentioned it last year but latest rumors were that quad went away. There was lot of discussion regarding battery needs for a quad and 500 mile range and a good point was made that they would likely push dual and tri motor first until 4680 advancements and yield could be deployed on a top of the line 500 mi quad motor range. Then again tri motor may end up being the top of the line regardless of battery size.. we'll have to wait and see

I suspect quad motor was always seen as a marketing thing and now they realize they don’t need it. Maybe they’ll reserve it for when they need to do a refresh to boost sales in like 5 years.

 

[Cosmacelf]

View attachment 966724

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693114162757386682

FYI that list is 10 months old.

 

[Stretch2727]

CNN article showing EV not following an S curve and plateauing at 20%. They should really look at Norway.

Good chart on the current market share by state.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/20/cars/electric-cars-sales-gas-cars-dg/index.html

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693160721495036405

I placed this here and then realised maybe a wider implication:
Need for Tesla Advertising / PR
CT and Highland starting prices should be competitive in a way that the MY wasn't on release. Most of the world will surely see the price in the media (including credits) which they maybe won't have for a Tesla in years (unless they are in our echo chamber).

 

[SO16]

Interesting video about banning Teslas in China (which we’ve heard before). But even more interesting on why not to buy a Chines brand vehicle.

 

[unk45]

I wonder why Nixon ended the gold standard! Or, at least, the inflection points that led to that decision

If you really want to know the detailed events, send me a PM. I was in a seminar during those events led by Scott Pardee, who was in charge of the New York FX operations at the New York Fed while it happened.
The detailed, while fascinating to anybody remotely interested in monetary policy, are really not immediately relevant to TSLA. I have kept my notes. Nearly all of it is public record but is obscured by the passage of time and divergences in political views. For a very high altitude summary, the Wiki on 'Nixon Shock' is quite close, but excludes some amazing drama.

 

[betstarship]

are really not immediately relevant to TSLA.

could you expand on that? curious!

I'm reading through the Nixon Shock wikipeda page now before yoga

 

[unk45]

could you expand on that? curious!

I'm reading through the Nixon Shock wikipeda page now before yoga

Briefly, TSLA does a stellar job of non-hedging FX using futures or other instruments, but by managing the supply chain and fixed costs to minimize net effects of FX risk. Minimize, NOT eliminate. Part of that is by selective financing of lease assets in their currencies, denominating suppliers as much as practical in currencies they generate and also be changing prices and expense bases to minimize exposures.

Back in the late 1960's the situation were vastly different because the Bretton Woods agreement mandated a rigid system which could not long persist and did not do so. Nothing remotely like those circumstances exists today.

That does not mean that FX risks have become more stable, but does mean that the rigidities are easier to manage for astute financial managers. Because there is a plethora os misinformation about how Tesla manages risks, including every type of asset and liability people keep imagining they somehow are inept enough that there are 'magic bullets' from Advertising to Share buybacks to change in FX policy. They almost never realize ho every part of the Tesla supply chain and infrastructure is managed with enormous skill and technical competence. That means that FX is simply another part of the impressive Tesla dance.

Just think about the Tesla Free Cash Flow, then compare to almost any other industrial company that has high growth. That is why ancient history about Bretton Woods, Germany, France, Switzerland the Nixon Shock are interesting and instructive, but have no relevance to TSLA today.

OTOH, I will offer high odds to anybody who'd bet that the entire Tesla senior finance staff does not know most of the details.

The accounting policy implications became very, very complex, soon after as Sandy Burton, who became SEC Chief Accountant when the aftermath hit in 1972, could have attested.

 

[MartinAustin]

Interesting video about banning Teslas in China (which we’ve heard before). But even more interesting on why not to buy a Chines brand vehicle.

serpentza is a controversial channel full of anti-China pro-USA rhetoric. Don't forget, there is a war of anti-China propaganda going on inside the countries of the U.S. empire. Not in the majority of the world. (yes it's politics... it's the weekend... I didn't post the video) I recommend disregard that channel

 

[Cosmacelf]

serpentza is a controversial channel full of anti-China pro-USA rhetoric. Don't forget, there is a war of anti-China propaganda going on inside the countries of the U.S. empire. Not in the majority of the world. (yes it's politics... it's the weekend... I didn't post the video) I recommend disregard that channel

Sepentza used to live in China and liked it, but became disillusioned about increasing authoritarian measures like social credit, cameras, etc. Like many YouTubers, he’s trying to make money from his channel, so isn’t above stretching a point past its breaking point to make things seems more dire than they are. Like all information sources from/about China, you can use what you think is accurate, discard the rest.

That car graveyard does seem to be related to car charging services that have gone bust rather than anything to do with EVs per se.

 

[MartinAustin]

Sepentza used to live in China and liked it, but became disillusioned about increasing authoritarian measures like social credit, cameras, etc. Like many YouTubers, he’s trying to make money from his channel, so isn’t above stretching a point past its breaking point to make things seems more dire than they are. Like all information sources from/about China, you can use what you think is accurate, discard the rest.

That car graveyard does seem to be related to car charging services that have gone bust rather than anything to do with EVs per se.

"information source about China"

To remind myself, I looked at the titles of the other videos in the channel

Folks, to get information about investing in TSLA that's better than that channel, I suggest Morgan Stanley's newsletters

 

[petit_bateau]

Deloitte projects the Electric Drivetrain market will exceed the Internal Combustion Engine market in 2027.
Auto makers without a solid EV business will see their business deteriorate over the next 5 years.
Despite this, we see the legacy auto makers dragging their feet.

View attachment 966736

When consultants have a report to sell, they start to tell the truth as it is unavoidable to do so

o = now, mid 2023
* = the 50/50 global transition point in mid-2026

 

[bkp_duke]

Interesting L.A. Times article titled "Guide to buying an electric car now". Always like to see how Tesla is portrayed in the old media landscape. The interesting part is that there is no mention of either Tesla or the Supercharger network . Tesla Model Y gets a mention in the Midrange pick category, and the authors bio at the bottom says he: "covers the rapidly changing global auto industry, with special emphasis on California, including Tesla, electric vehicles, driverless cars and vehicle safety". I'd say that covering the auto industry with a special emphasis on California, and writing a buying guide without mentioning Tesla or especially the Supercharger network, his journalism skills need some serious honing...

A little web searching goes a long way, even for a journalist...

View attachment 966760

Budget pick is the Nissan Leaf. Midrange pick is the Hyundia Ioniq 5. Ultra-luxury pick is the Porsche Taycan Turbo S.

Article says: "As for public charging - it remains a mess".

Reminds me of the "old days" when journalists ignored Tesla because, well, every other car maker was developing all the Tesla Killers. We all know how that worked out. Maybe his next big piece will be "Guide to buying a smart phone now", with no mention of the Apple ecosystem.

The L.A. Times guide to buying an electric car now

As autos writer for the L.A. Times, Russ Mitchell gets a lot of questions about electric car buying. Here's his guide to choosing the right EV for you.

www.latimes.com

Russ is a known Tesla hater. He can't stand anything Elon. Zero surprises in this article.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Russ is a known Tesla hater. He can't stand anything Elon. Zero surprises in this article.

He loves us Tesla bulls for sure