Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MartinAustin]

There was this one time I drove all the way from... oh, wait. nvm

Screw you, UBS downgrade!!!

 

[Maarten]

Nice recovery from open, didn't see any specific news for that, but I welcome it...

Did some buying today, but didn’t anticipate such an effect.

 

[mongo]

I will just add that the 4680 is a form factor, much like a AA battery. The process and internal design will vary quite a bit depending on the manufacturer and how it is being used.

At the end of the day, isn't 4680 technically just a size in millimeters that could have any sort of chemistry/structure inside?

Since this came up twice.
Yes, 4680 is just a cylinder size. That is what I was addressing in response to "Given all of the benefits of the 4680, they must not have been convinced that the production problems were going to be resolved in a timely matter."
Tesla's design has (or hopefully will have) "all the benefits" laid out on battery day, Panasonic and others won't. So 3rd party manufacturing data isn't really relevant.

 

[mongo]

Yes, and doesn't require DBE either, just dramatically reduces the manufacturing footprint and through-put

AFAIK the real big deal with 4680 is the tabless design for efficient electron transport, hence keeps cool, less expansion, less degradation, more power delivery

Nice recovery from open, didn't see any specific news for that, but I welcome it...

DBE is the reason for reduced factory footprint due to no drying ovens.
4680 dimensions on their own just reduce the foot print a little for the same GWh output if the number of jelly rollers, can stuffers, and follow machines are able to be reduced due to the higher Wh per cell.

4680 doesn't mean tabless. Panasonic is using a 5 tab design. It's less great from a thermal/ electrical path point of view, but leverages their existing tech.

 

[GhostSkater]

At the end of the day, isn't 4680 technically just a size in millimeters that could have any sort of chemistry/structure inside?

Technically yes but practically might not be the optimal

For example, you a have a fixed cost on the cell, irrelevant of chemistry inside, is the 4680 the optimum size for a LFP chemistry for example? In which the LPF active portion the cell is cheaper and thus the rest becomes a bigger part of the cost? Or makes sense to go bigger in that case? Specially since LFP is more stable

There is a reason LFP cells are usually larger with less passive to active material ratio

 

[Artful Dodger]

No mention of the 10-Q? I’m too lazy and incompetent to read it but it’s always great to see other peoples intelligent comments

Automotive Sales Revenue:

• Deferred revenue is related to the access to our Full Self Driving (“FSD”) features and ongoing maintenance, internet connectivity, free Supercharging programs and over-the-air software updates primarily on automotive sales, which amounted to $3.17 billion and $2.91 billion as of June 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, respectively.
• Deferred revenue is equivalent to the total transaction price allocated to the performance obligations that are unsatisfied, or partially unsatisfied, as of the balance sheet date. Revenue recognized from the deferred revenue balance as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 was $256 million and $121 million for six months ended June 30, 2023 and 2022, respectively. Of the total deferred revenue balance as of June 30, 2023, we expect to recognize $747 million of revenue in the next 12 months. The remaining balance will be recognized at the time of transfer of control of the product or over the performance period.
• We have been providing loans for financing our automotive deliveries in volume since fiscal year 2022. As of June 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, we have recorded net financing receivables on the consolidated balance sheets, of which $234 million and $128 million, respectively, is recorded within Accounts receivable, net, for the current portion and $1.15 billion and $665 million, respectively, is recorded within Other non-current assets for the long-term portion.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Las Vegas approves 68 miles of underground transportation tunnels

The Elon Musk-owned Boring Company plans to build out an underground transportation system in Las Vegas featuring 81 stations after an expansion approval.

www.reviewjournal.com

68 miles of underground tunnels and 80+ stations approved in Las Vegas.

Las Vegas Loop has had over 1.2M passengers since operation started 2 years ago. Also, max daily capacity so far has been 32k passengers.

Bad Mayor. Some risk with her. Seems she's outgunned by pressure from hotels & others. I'm a big believer in Boring if it can get to scale. each of her points can be proved or countered rapidly just by building out & by having higher capacity OR automated vehicles. I'm also a fan of Boring likely being a customer of Tesla.

Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman isn’t sure the project will ever come to fruition, but voted in favor of the extension anyway, due to the urging of the various resorts and other entities in downtown.

“I am one who just does not believe will come to be, certainly not in my lifetime,” Goodman said during Wednesday’s meeting. “Hopefully in the lifetime forthcoming. Moving three and four people at a time does not get this on … I want more accessibility, I want to move people more easily and I’d like it to happen immediately, because we need that movement of people now.”

 

[Artful Dodger]

There was this one time I drove all the way from... oh, wait. nvm

Screw you, UBS downgrade!!!

Lol, anutter Wall-E 'up-is-down-grade'.

Tesla sees downgrade but price target increase at UBS - MarketWatch | (6 hrs ago)

Tesla was downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS, though its price target was increased to $270 from $220. “Tesla remains the undisputed truly global..."

 

[Cobos]

What do we all think about this?

Is Tesla Model Y the World’s Best-Selling Car? Nope, Not Even Close

Lies….
Corolla Worldwide sales for the full year seems to have been about 1.2 or 1.3 million cars so around 280k per Q.
No way they 3x that this Q1 for a car type that is shrinking in popularity.

 

[Artful Dodger]

More 10-Q goodness? (are these the surrendered share options from Directors?)

The following table presents the potentially dilutive shares that were excluded from the computation of diluted net income per share of common stock attributable to common stockholders, because their effect was anti-dilutive, as adjusted to give effect to the 2022 Stock Split (in millions):

		Three Months Ended June 30,			Six Months Ended June 30,
		2023			2022			2023			2022
Stock-based awards			15				3				17				2

 

[UncaNed]

Las Vegas approves 68 miles of underground transportation tunnels

The Elon Musk-owned Boring Company plans to build out an underground transportation system in Las Vegas featuring 81 stations after an expansion approval.

www.reviewjournal.com

68 miles of underground tunnels and 80+ stations approved in Las Vegas.

Las Vegas Loop has had over 1.2M passengers since operation started 2 years ago. Also, max daily capacity so far has been 32k passengers.

Wish they'd build a few tunnels from say, NJ suburbs to Long Island and NYC, illustrating the relief the Boring tunnels can provide for thousands of commuters every day for a fraction of the terribly inflated cost of building subway stations and such.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Bad Mayor. Some risk with her. Seems she's outgunned by pressure from hotels & others. I'm a big believer in Boring if it can get to scale. each of her points can be proved or countered rapidly just by building out & by having higher capacity OR automated vehicles. I'm also a fan of Boring likely being a customer of Tesla.

Oh man, that Mayor is an idiot. She could reach out anytime and ask for Boring’s timelines but instead thinks with her emotions and doesn’t feels like it’ll happen in her lifetime. You can just see that Boring is going to start replicating their boring machines once they have a design they like.

 

[mongo]

Lol, anutter Wall-E 'up-is-down-grade'.

Tesla sees downgrade but price target increase at UBS - MarketWatch | (6 hrs ago)

If a stock is at 265 and you project it's going to 270 in the next 12 months, that's hardly a smokin hot buy.

Now, if you want to dunk on the combo of a 220 price target with >220 stock price and a buy rating, go for it

More 10-Q goodness? (are these the surrendered share options from Directors?)

		Three Months Ended June 30,			Six Months Ended June 30,
		2023			2022			2023			2022
Stock-based awards			15				3				17				2

Doubtful. Returned shares would directly decrease the share count and would not show up retroactively in 2022
The 2022 Q3 10-Q was more verbose:

Net Income per Share of Common Stock Attributable to Common Stockholders
Basic net income per share of common stock attributable to common stockholders is calculated by dividing net income attributable to common stockholders by the weighted-average shares of common stock outstanding for the period. Potentially dilutive shares, which are based on the weighted-average shares of common stock underlying outstanding stock-based awards, warrants and convertible senior notes using the treasury stock method or the if-converted method, as applicable, are included when calculating diluted net income per share of common stock attributable to common stockholders when their effect is dilutive.
Furthermore, in connection with the offerings of our convertible senior notes, we entered into convertible note hedges and warrants (see Note 10, Debt). However, our convertible note hedges are not included when calculating potentially dilutive shares since their effect is always anti-dilutive.
The strike price on the warrants were below our average share price during the period and were included in the tables below. Warrants are included in the weighted-average shares used in computing basic net income per share of common stock in the period(s) they are settled

 

[EQC_]

...
We reached out to Toyota for Corolla numbers, and the automaker reports it sold 740,561 Corollas worldwide in the first quarter of this year, counting all versions including the Cross.
...

**Edit: Hat-tip to Cobos for noting the glaring error in the article and getting that fact posted before I could assemble all of the below. I'll leave my reply here to provide the evidence of the MSN article/author's failings, and thusly clearly show the Tesla Model Y is well-deserving of the sales crown.**


I'm actually pretty sure there's 2 major mistakes in that MSN article:

1. They are attributing the Model Y announcement/achievement to Elon...but in actuality, it seems to have been calculated by JATO plus official estimates, and reported by Motor1 (Tesla Model Y Was The World's Best-Selling Car In Q1 2023 ). From the bottom of that article: "Note: The totals shown in this article are the sum of JATO data for 53 markets plus official data/forecasts for 31 other markets and estimates for the rest of the world."
2. There's pretty much no way Toyota Corolla plus Corolla Cross numbers totaled 740,000 for the quarter. Note the chart from Motor1 below:
   1. 
   2. The Corolla figure says it "includes all body types." If that includes the Corolla Cross, and I think it does, then everything makes sense and MSN's author is fully wrong. But, if the Corolla count here doesn't include the Corolla Cross, then we can still be certain that the Corolla Cross sold fewer than the Camry's 166,000...so AT THE ABSOLUTE MOST, the Corolla plus Corolla Cross figure would be 256,000 + 166,000 = 422,000. Nowhere near 740,000...and again, I think that even 422,000 is wrong.

Further evidence that there is something askew with MSN's figure is the 2022 data for global sales.

Unless there was some unique event that delayed or pulled forward a huge number of sales, that 740,561 Corolla number for the quarter would imply nearly 3 million Corolla + Corolla Cross annually.

Meanwhile, the 2022 figure seems to be just over 1 million, based on my quick Googling of the 2022 results:

Again, maybe my Googled results are wrong...but 1.12 million Corolla sales in all of 2022 just doesn't mesh well with a supposed 740,000 Corolla sales in just Q1 of 2023.

1.12 million total global sales in 2022 would mean average quarterly sales of fewer than 300,000....pretty consistent with Motor1's figure for Q1 2023.

I believe that 1.12 million figure also includes the Corolla Cross already, but I'm not sure. But, whether or not the Corolla Cross was included in 2022 seems irrelevant, because the historic sales of that model seem to be only a fraction of total Corolla Sales (From Wikipedia's article on the Corolla Cross: Toyota Corolla Cross - Wikipedia ):

Those are full-year/annual figures, and it looks like in 2022, global Corolla Cross sales were under 300,000 for the whole year...less than 100,000 per quarter.

I just don't see how any of this suddenly shifts up to 740,000 Corolla + Corolla Cross sales in a single quarter.


So, I see three possibilities:

1. Perhaps that MSN article's number is grievously wrong, and the author didn't both to sanity-check, OR
2. There was some significant event that concentrated nearly a year's worth of Corolla+Corolla Cross sales into Q1 2023, OR
3. The MSN article is correct and it is no fluke. Toyota effectively tripled their production and sales capability for the Corolla + Corolla Cross in one quarter, and nobody reported on it until this..

Personally, I lean toward Option 1 above, and the Model Y did indeed take the sales crown. But, of course the author here had to "check up" on Tesla's announcement but not even do the smallest level of sanity check on the figure they published for Toyota.

Even if number 2 is correct, that would imply that, for the whole year, the Model Y will still come out ahead -- Toyota would have to return to its usual sales pace for the rest of the year.

If 3 is correct (and that is a huge IF), then Toyota worked some sort of miracle and nobody reported on it...and we have underestimated them.

Anybody got a way to report this up to MSN's author and editors?


**Edited to add: And this concludes today's presentation of "Tesla out-did Toyota, and MSN just can't handle it."

 

[Artful Dodger]

If a stock is at 265 and you project it's going to 270 in the next 12 months, that's hardly a smokin hot buy.

UBS: a.k.a. "Up By Saturday" (u know, after our "preferred customers" have filled their boots).

Don't be fooled, folks. Wall-E lies for a living.

 

[Drumheller]

So $270 is the target close this week?

 

[Artful Dodger]

So $270 is the target close this week?

That, sir, is a painful maxiom... since Friday @ 7:00 ET

Jeers!

 

[2daMoon]

Everybody braced for the MMD? (mandatory mid-afternoon dip, of late)





This is intended as a message to Murphy, and, hopefully, the obligatory contrary response may be forthcoming.

 

[Hiline]

**Edit: Hat-tip to Cobos for noting the glaring error in the article and getting that fact posted before I could assemble all of the below. I'll leave my reply here to provide the evidence of the MSN article/author's failings, and thusly clearly show the Tesla Model Y is well-deserving of the sales crown.**


I'm actually pretty sure there's 2 major mistakes in that MSN article:

1. They are attributing the Model Y announcement/achievement to Elon...but in actuality, it seems to have been calculated by JATO plus official estimates, and reported by Motor1 (Tesla Model Y Was The World's Best-Selling Car In Q1 2023 ). From the bottom of that article: "Note: The totals shown in this article are the sum of JATO data for 53 markets plus official data/forecasts for 31 other markets and estimates for the rest of the world."
2. There's pretty much no way Toyota Corolla plus Corolla Cross numbers totaled 740,000 for the quarter. Note the chart from Motor1 below:
   1. View attachment 959209
   2. The Corolla figure says it "includes all body types." If that includes the Corolla Cross, and I think it does, then everything makes sense and MSN's author is fully wrong. But, if the Corolla count here doesn't include the Corolla Cross, then we can still be certain that the Corolla Cross sold fewer than the Camry's 166,000...so AT THE ABSOLUTE MOST, the Corolla plus Corolla Cross figure would be 256,000 + 166,000 = 422,000. Nowhere near 740,000...and again, I think that even 422,000 is wrong.

Further evidence that there is something askew with MSN's figure is the 2022 data for global sales.

Unless there was some unique event that delayed or pulled forward a huge number of sales, that 740,561 Corolla number for the quarter would imply nearly 3 million Corolla + Corolla Cross annually.

Meanwhile, the 2022 figure seems to be just over 1 million, based on my quick Googling of the 2022 results:
View attachment 959197

Again, maybe my Googled results are wrong...but 1.12 million Corolla sales in all of 2022 just doesn't mesh well with a supposed 740,000 Corolla sales in just Q1 of 2023.

1.12 million total global sales in 2022 would mean average quarterly sales of fewer than 300,000....pretty consistent with Motor1's figure for Q1 2023.

I believe that 1.12 million figure also includes the Corolla Cross already, but I'm not sure. But, whether or not the Corolla Cross was included in 2022 seems irrelevant, because the historic sales of that model seem to be only a fraction of total Corolla Sales (From Wikipedia's article on the Corolla Cross: Toyota Corolla Cross - Wikipedia ):
View attachment 959204

Those are full-year/annual figures, and it looks like in 2022, global Corolla Cross sales were under 300,000 for the whole year...less than 100,000 per quarter.

I just don't see how any of this suddenly shifts up to 740,000 Corolla + Corolla Cross sales in a single quarter.


So, I see three possibilities:

1. Perhaps that MSN article's number is grievously wrong, and the author didn't both to sanity-check, OR
2. There was some significant event that concentrated nearly a year's worth of Corolla+Corolla Cross sales into Q1 2023, OR
3. The MSN article is correct and it is no fluke. Toyota effectively tripled their production and sales capability for the Corolla + Corolla Cross in one quarter, and nobody reported on it until this..

Personally, I lean toward Option 1 above, and the Model Y did indeed take the sales crown. But, of course the author here had to "check up" on Tesla's announcement but not even do the smallest level of sanity check on the figure they published for Toyota.

Even if number 2 is correct, that would imply that, for the whole year, the Model Y will still come out ahead -- Toyota would have to return to its usual sales pace for the rest of the year.

If 3 is correct (and that is a huge IF), then Toyota worked some sort of miracle and nobody reported on it...and we have underestimated them.

Anybody got a way to report this up to MSN's author and editors?


**Edited to add: And this concludes today's presentation of "Tesla out-did Toyota, and MSN just can't handle it."

It's just a technicality. The Model Y will be the best-selling car by the end of the year.

I long for the day when the Model Y is the best-selling car and the Model 3 is the second-best-selling car, worldwide, so people no longer think of Teslas as too expensive and actually find out how much they cost.

Otherwise, I still wanna see a Tesla ad that simply says 'Starts at $29,999 after federal tax credits' in the US.

 

[Maarten]

Fellow investors: Tesla needs your help here.
When successful we will all benefit from this help with respect to the TSLA stock price.

As you may know, there is only an enormously crippled version of FSD here, due to EU regulations.
However, Tesla owners here should be able to obtain the same FSD Beta version as the USA and Canada.
In order to get this discussed in the European Parliament, a petition for this must have 15,000 electronic signatures.
So, let’s go global and please help Tesla/TSLA and sign this petition for FSD Beta AND share the petition on online platforms.
We are almost there (14,446 till date)!

And an extra push in motivation to sign and get this enabled here in Europe too, might be given by the safety results of FSD Beta:

Tesla Reveals FSD Beta Accident Rate for First Time; Compares It to Autopilot and National Average

Tesla's recent Impact Report presents new data on the safety performance of its Full Self Driving (FSD) Beta and Autopilot systems, emphasizing the company's de

www.notateslaapp.com