How? 50% growth is 50% growth.
So if in year 2026 they need to go from 5M to 7.5M / year, then 1/3 of their production lines will be ramping. In 2027 to go from 7.5M to 11.25M again 1/3 of the lines will be ramping…. It will be just as large a percentage of overall production as ramping Berlin and Austin In year 2023.
Assuming they maintain 50% growth and a production ramp takes 1 year, then 1/3 of the lines are ramping on average every year. It’s not a smaller piece of the pie. It’s always 1/3 of the pie.
I think you are asking 2 interesting implied questions here:-
- What will the ramp of a Gen3 production line look like?
- Why are the current production line shutdowns happening?
While we can't be certain, I hope the answer to 2. is that the current shutdowns are for things like Model 3 Highland, and the long run end result of those shutdowns will be higher production from the same lines. And I also hope that a shutdown this year means that future shutdowns are less likely.
We could summarise that by saying, Tesla is trying to complete all other major shutdowns and ramps before starting the Gen3 ramp.
Returning to the Gen3 ramp Q 1, poses additional questions.
A. How does the unboxed process impact on capex spend, and the overhead costs of ramping a factory?
B. Does an unboxed factory ramp faster?
C. Does unboxed mean more lines and a simple copy-and-paste to add new lines?
D. What impact does 2 for the price of 1 have on the Gen 3 ramp?
E. Does a more mature 4680 production process help guarantee cell supply?
Some element of "production hell" for the first Gen3 ramp would not be a total surprise, but fundamentally it seems like a simple process, except for the final assembly when all major parts of the car are put together.
As we learn more about Cybertruck production we can see how the final major assembly phase of a Cybertruck might be similar to a Gen3 process, Stainless steel panels are used instead of painted panels. they may be larger and more structural, but in some ways the process could be similar.
