Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[adiggs]

So... solar prices drop like crazy, but fracked gas use skyrockets anyway?????

What I get from it - investment in fossil fuels has fallen by half in 10 years, with that "missing" investment going to renewables.

What I add on to that is that the increase consumption of natural gas, combined with the drop in investment, has to come out of some other piece of the fossil fuel pie. We happen to know that is primarily coal.

We also seem to have arrived at peak oil. It'll be clear in retrospect (so we don't yet know), but it seems that peak oil will later be pegged to somewhere in the 2020 to 2025 time period. Whatever the specific point in time, its soon.

All of which could still be increasing in absolute numbers as more and more people in the world gain access to a larger and larger energy budget.

 

[SOULPEDL]

We have underperformed the market the past several sessions, and it's hard to see that changing until earnings are announced.

Well then you'll just have to try harder to see the change.

Cyber
Truck

I share your concerns, but change is guaranteed with Tesla (got the memo?).

It does feel like we've been bouncing within this horizontal band for a month now. Isn't that the sign of big change coming in either direction? Could it be going up... now?

 

[GOVA]

So... solar prices drop like crazy, but fracked gas use skyrockets anyway?????

Never underestimate the power of corruption and bribes.

 

[larmor]

But residential solar panel installations remain very high-- eg Texas.

Just to clarify-- high cost. With increased solar deployment nationwide, and even worldwide, i have seen only increasing prices for solar panels and installation. Is there some increasing import tax on solar panels or lack of domestic production in setting of increasing demand?

 

[Mengy]

Well then you'll just have to try harder to see the change.

Cyber
Truck

Cybertruck isn't going to move the revenues needle until sometime in early to mid 2024 though. Until that time we only have production increases coupled with Megapack sales to boost our earnings, and with the now lower margins due to price cuts we could be in for a 6-12 month window of TSLA mostly going sideways, between $250-$350.

My gut feeling is our PE will (mostly) contract over the next year and we won't really see TSLA get out of this "trench" its in until mid to late 2024 when the PE compression will become stupidly tight, which will ultimately make TSLA super attractive to large investors thus lifting us out of the MM's control finally. At least up to a new plateau higher than our ATH of $415. Either late 2024 to sometime in 2025.

Not financial advice of course (channeling my inner TrendTrader!), this is just how I think TSLA will perform over the next few years.

 

[navguy12]

Depressing data. There's no escaping the oven... James.

Spoiler: Murdoch Family Hiding Place

(Edit: Confirmed by a story of the Hot Springs below along with my Friend in BC).

The Murdoch family has a resort built on the coast of British Columbia, about halfway up to Alaska - nowhere land. A close friend in Canada almost took the job blasting for them but the conditions were too brutal living in tents etc... I've always wondered why there? But I've come to believe they know it's going to heat up and get crazy, so possibly an escape. I happen to know where their little resort is located and may need to crash the party someday to pay my disrespect, but I wonder how many others are doing something similar?

Seems they have a few large structures (lodges?) on the peninsula, nearest the Nascall Hot Springs, and just down river from some good fishing. Also showing large tanks either for food or fuel or both. Then I believe I see a dome structure that is cracked open like an observatory. Yes, I think I'd like one of those too if I were a gazillionaire media mogul.

I thought it would be built out more by now. It was just the one beachfront ~7 yrs ago. I don't see much for Farming yet, but that comes later I suppose. Maybe they're OK with the Fish diet... if there are any left after a couple more El Ninos.

Here's some info on those Hot Springs, the island is private now, owned by the Murdochs. Why was this even sold you have to wonder. Is Niagara Falls for sale too? Come on Canada!

Nascall Hot Springs

View attachment 955909

View attachment 955928

Everything is sold because everything has a price.

I hope whoever sold it is happy with their thirty pieces of silver.

 

[wipster]

In all seriousness; it technically sounds logical that Tesla would be choosing locations now and readying to build factories for the next generation vehicle. The timing is correct. Mexico and India cover a good portion of the world. Maybe one more local with those lower labor and associated costs and they’re good to go?

For now at least...

 

[JRP3]

Meanwhile in bizarro world hydrogen is the future

Why Shares of Nikola Are Racing Higher Today | The Motley Fool

A new customer is hitching a ride with this electric truck manufacturer.

www.fool.com

 

[cliff harris]

Cybertruck will not directly contribute much revenue in 2023. Assuming 70k price and 1k deliveries.... $70m is peanuts. But it WILL contribute massively to brand awareness. Frankly they could give away the first 1,000 cybertrucks and put it down as ad-spend, and it would make sense.
Is there ANY website, whether its news, tech, cars or renewable/green that will NOT cover the first deliveries of the cybertruck?

Gary Black is often reminding people of how much press and attention the model Y release generated for Tesla. I think he is right, but also understating it. Ultimately the Y was a larger model 3. The CT is a whole new design methodology, brand-image and market segment.

We really will be in nonsense-universe if the first few CTs do not pop the stock noticeably. Assuming no massive disappointments on specs, price or reviews.

On another topic: I wonder what Tesla are thinking right now regarding stock buybacks. They were vocal about building a warchest to survive a recession, but those fears seem to have subsided. I wouldnt be shocked if they announced an intention for a buyback soon.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Cybertruck isn't going to move the revenues needle until sometime in early to mid 2024 though. Until that time we only have production increases coupled with Megapack sales to boost our earnings, and with the now lower margins due to price cuts we could be in for a 6-12 month window of TSLA mostly going sideways, between $250-$350.

My gut feeling is our PE will (mostly) contract over the next year and we won't really see TSLA get out of this "trench" its in until mid to late 2024 when the PE compression will become stupidly tight, which will ultimately make TSLA super attractive to large investors thus lifting us out of the MM's control finally. At least up to a new plateau higher than our ATH of $415. Either late 2024 to sometime in 2025.

Not financial advice of course (channeling my inner TrendTrader!), this is just how I think TSLA will perform over the next few years.

If Tesla's margins get back to 20% for Q2 and then stay at that going forward for the next year, then macro's will have a lot of say in terms of what happens with TSLA.

With each passing month, we get inflation and economic data that points to a goldilocks scenario for the Fed. Much of the actual impact of inflation are lagging data points which are forecasted to continue to drop (housing/rent) for the next 6-10 months. This practically guarantees continuing cooling of inflation for the next 12 months. This sets up the Fed to lower rates to a more practical 3% rate going forward (1-2% rates are not coming back imo).

If the goldilocks scenario does indeed come to pass, every stock will enjoy PE and/or PS ratio expansion. TSLA will likely trade in a range of 350-450 in that scenario and then increase from there as Tesla is able to actually raise prices over the next year (as Fed reduces rates from 5.25% to 3% area) and realization of reduction in operating costs and COGS.

Now if Tesla manages to more rapidly recognize reduction of operating costs and COGS, then obviously it will show through in earnings and thus I see TSLA more in a range of 400-500 as the goldilocks scenario comes to fruition.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Cybertruck will not directly contribute much revenue in 2023. Assuming 70k price and 1k deliveries.... $70m is peanuts. But it WILL contribute massively to brand awareness. Frankly they could give away the first 1,000 cybertrucks and put it down as ad-spend, and it would make sense.
Is there ANY website, whether its news, tech, cars or renewable/green that will NOT cover the first deliveries of the cybertruck?

Gary Black is often reminding people of how much press and attention the model Y release generated for Tesla. I think he is right, but also understating it. Ultimately the Y was a larger model 3. The CT is a whole new design methodology, brand-image and market segment.

We really will be in nonsense-universe if the first few CTs do not pop the stock noticeably. Assuming no massive disappointments on specs, price or reviews.

On another topic: I wonder what Tesla are thinking right now regarding stock buybacks. They were vocal about building a warchest to survive a recession, but those fears seem to have subsided. I wouldnt be shocked if they announced an intention for a buyback soon.

Its not much but the new loot box has an option to use referral credits to enter for a chance to win 1 of the first CT's of the prod line.

 

[Mengy]

If Tesla's margins get back to 20% for Q2 and then stay at that going forward for the next year, then macro's will have a lot of say in terms of what happens with TSLA.

With each passing month, we get inflation and economic data that points to a goldilocks scenario for the Fed. Much of the actual impact of inflation are lagging data points which are forecasted to continue to drop (housing/rent) for the next 6-10 months. This practically guarantees continuing cooling of inflation for the next 12 months. This sets up the Fed to lower rates to a more practical 3% rate going forward (1-2% rates are not coming back imo).

If the goldilocks scenario does indeed come to pass, every stock will enjoy PE and/or PS ratio expansion. TSLA will likely trade in a range of 350-450 in that scenario and then increase from there as Tesla is able to actually raise prices over the next year (as Fed reduces rates from 5.25% to 3% area) and realization of reduction in operating costs and COGS.

Now if Tesla manages to more rapidly recognize reduction of operating costs and COGS, then obviously it will show through in earnings and thus I see TSLA more in a range of 400-500 as the goldilocks scenario comes to fruition.

Yep agreed 100%. I just feel the goldilocks scenario won't truly hit until mid 2024, which is when I think the Fed will finally begin to lower rates. Until that point my gut feeling is TSLA will trade mostly sideways.

Again, I'd love to be wrong and see the stock soar to $500 by Christmas of this year!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yep agreed 100%. I just feel the goldilocks scenario won't truly hit until mid 2024, which is when I think the Fed will finally begin to lower rates. Until that point my gut feeling is TSLA will trade mostly sideways.

Again, I'd love to be wrong and see the stock soar to $500 by Christmas of this year!

What the Fed "should" do is continue to hold rates where they're at for another 2 months, possibly 3, and then lower rates by .25% eveyr month after until they're back at 3% and hold it there. So in that scenario Fed will be dropping rates starting at the end of Q3/beginning of Q4.

What the Fed will likely do is be stubborn to stroke their ego's and raise one more time....only to have to then drop 1-2 months later due to more inflation data.

Can't really be overstated how good the inflation data was this week on all fronts. The mixture of data inputs combined with real-time data inputs clearly shows inflation is going to continue to drop. Those that were pushing the narrative that there will be a rebound in inflation this fall lost a lot of their ammo this week.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Cybertruck isn't going to move the revenues needle until sometime in early to mid 2024 though. Until that time we only have production increases coupled with Megapack sales to boost our earnings, and with the now lower margins due to price cuts we could be in for a 6-12 month window of TSLA mostly going sideways, between $250-$350.

My gut feeling is our PE will (mostly) contract over the next year and we won't really see TSLA get out of this "trench" its in until mid to late 2024 when the PE compression will become stupidly tight, which will ultimately make TSLA super attractive to large investors thus lifting us out of the MM's control finally. At least up to a new plateau higher than our ATH of $415. Either late 2024 to sometime in 2025.

Not financial advice of course (channeling my inner TrendTrader!), this is just how I think TSLA will perform over the next few years.

Cybertruck doesn't create instant revenue, correct.

But another 3 hints, leaks, tweets... that's the mojo that get's SP going. Maybe it doesn't stay long, but we were talking about in the next week. All we'd need are a few good specs. If I so much as see the price and range show up in my basket, that's what I'm talking about. But it could be a robot, or factory, or X.

From early age in Canada, I always knew "Anything can happen in the next half hour." As I grew older, it became 3 days.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Cybertruck doesn't create instant revenue, correct.

But another 3 hints, leaks, tweets... that's the mojo that get's SP going. Maybe it doesn't stay long, but we were talking about in the next week. All we'd need are a few good specs. If I so much as see the price and range show up in my basket, that's what I'm talking about. But it could be a robot, or factory, or X.

From early age in Canada, I always knew "Anything can happen in the next half hour." As I grew older, it became 3 days.

And as you get even older...it becomes 2 weeks

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Cybertruck doesn't create instant revenue, correct.

But another 3 hints, leaks, tweets... that's the mojo that get's SP going. Maybe it doesn't stay long, but we were talking about in the next week. All we'd need are a few good specs. If I so much as see the price and range show up in my basket, that's what I'm talking about. But it could be a robot, or factory, or X.

From early age in Canada, I always knew "Anything can happen in the next half hour." As I grew older, it became 3 days.

The hype/buzz around Cybertruck when it's actually being delivered is going to be insane. Just the buzz of regular people seeing it out on the road. If Tesla was smart, they would spread out deliveries to that Cybertrucks are going to all areas of the US. Who knows how much that hype will translation in share price appreciation

Sure some early in line reservations holders would be pissed if they knew they were passed up for that reason, but it's worth it to Tesla.

 

[wipster]

I'm not gonna say it... I'd like to, but nagada...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Big launch yesterday. Dojo will bring the horsepower but what will xAI provide Tesla?

My fantasy is that Elon grows enough cash in his holdings outside Tesla that he can excercise all of his 2018 CEO Comp. share options w/o needing to sell any shares of TSLA (which inevitably triggers a free-fall) in the SP).

How much cash we talking? 200M shares? @mongo At $500/sh that's already $50B in cash just to pay the income taxes to exercise that many shares. So how can he do it? Options (but not on TSLA). Elon has about 5 years until those options expire, so 'pitter-patter'...

Trading advantage in the Options market? Starlink-carried data from world-wide Twitter feeds, examined by giga-parameter LLMs grabs the Options Market by the shortzes and yanks. Extract a billion a week like the MMs do now?

Or Elon could just take some cash off the table once Starlink is profitable and goes public. (Boring!) That doesn't sound like Elon's style. I think he'd rather have both. I hope.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[larmor]

Cybertruck doesn't create instant revenue, correct.

But another 3 hints, leaks, tweets... that's the mojo that get's SP going. Maybe it doesn't stay long, but we were talking about in the next week. All we'd need are a few good specs. If I so much as see the price and range show up in my basket, that's what I'm talking about. But it could be a robot, or factory, or X.

From early age in Canada, I always knew "Anything can happen in the next half hour." As I grew older, it became 3 days.

If the cybertruck price and range hold or come close in specifications, that is itself remarkable. To get a huge 22 foot pickup truck with 500 mile range!? If there is accommodation for load and towing capacity with minimal degradation of range then the unloaded cybertruck would theoretically have to have a longer than 500 mile range. Finally, if these specs hold up, then the model S and X would have to change-- such as the (unicorn) plaid+, so that a lower cost car specs don't outperform the top of the line models.

 

[2daMoon]

Here's an article from Teslarati about Model Y holding its #1 spot this year, and mentions US BEV sales are now 7%, up from 4.6% at the same point last year. Tipping point? BAF?

Tesla Model Y registrations are surging in the United States: study

Americans registered twice as many Tesla Model Y crossovers year-over-year in the period between January and May 2023.

www.teslarati.com

Just finding something to do other than watch the ticker and thought I'd offer the same respite to y'all as well.